tip off

BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor’s post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there’s no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

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  • 51
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    China moving to an absolute cap on emissions, as well as an intensity cap.

    With the new US EPA regulations, this makes a major international agreement very likely. Abbott the wrong man for the wrong time, again.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-plans-to-set-an-absolute-cap-on-carbon-emissions-20140603-zrwpj.html

  • 52
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    “@jonathanvswan: Martin Parkinson confirms he still believes carbon tax and resources rent tax are good policies.”

  • 53
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PUP Senator-elect Jacqui Lambi is calling Lib fed Director Brian Loughnane, his wife, PM Abbott’s Cos Peta Credlin & Bolt ‘The Lib Royals.’”

  • 54
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    Turnbull and Jones going at it.

    Lexi Metherell @LexiMetherell · 1h
    Alan Jones tearing into Malcolm Turnbull... Turnbull: "the problem with you Alan is you dish it out but you don't like to take it."

    https://twitter.com/LexiMetherell

  • 55
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    Seems to me that Turnbull goes on Alan Jones show just to wind him up.

  • 56
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    The Australian:

    'We are not campaigning to hurt Clive, we’re trying through pretty rigorous reporting led by Hedley Thomas to look at Clive’s real business interests and his real views.”

    Really. Hedley Thomas?

    There’s lots of things I don’t agree with Palmer on but lots more gutter press innuendo to come, I say.

  • 57
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    Just the sort of thing Newman and HoJo want to roll out.

    Exclusive: How private firms make quick killing from PFI

    Companies that were awarded contracts to build and maintain state schools for 25 years have been doubling their money by “flipping”, or selling on, the Private Finance Initiative (PFIs) projects just four years after finishing them.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-how-private-firms-make-quick-killing-from-pfi-9488351.html

  • 58
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    I sometimes think that Rowe says more in his cartoon that 99% of the commentariat.

    In today’s effort, he has transmuted the smugglers into a nappy. The ‘No!’ has disappeared from the erstwhile hairy chest and someone shrank The Kid.

    I just love Credlin’s half-jaundiced, half doting, one-eyed look at her adopted love child.

  • 59
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Yes Boerwar, the details in the background in Rowe’s cartoons are always worth the time to closely examine.

  • 60
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    The only pollie who gave it to Alan face to face was Robert Tickner on AJ’s short lived tv show which was death spiralling at the time.

  • 61
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    Ctar

    Clive is getting to them. Actually defending themselves. Rare for the News mob.

  • 62
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    Re Psephos @47: agree. I found Joe Hockey’s performance utterly nauseating. The purpose of the whole furore over boats was to get enough people to vote against their own interests to get Abbott over the line. The Coalition rejected the Malaysia solution because they didn’t want the boats to stop before the election.

  • 63
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    William, would a graphic that attempts to illustrate/estimate the net voter flows between parties make any sense?

  • 64
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    The next generation ex uni won’t be getting into the housing market on their own – they will be given or inheriting homes or they will be renting. It has been sick for a long time but Abbott is finally killing the own your home dream and deliberately murdering the fair go.

  • 65
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    AA

    On RN an hour or so ago the Chair of Universities Australia, the peak org for them, said that they have formally asked the govt to re-do the uni aspects of the budget.

    She spoke at length about the unsustainability of the joint effect of 20% decrease in funding and the interest-on-HECS model.

    She gave a number of persuasive examples of the implication effects on different career patterns eg women, leave for kids, then part time, and interestingly those studying part time….. and the unfair impact of interest.

    As well there was argument about the impact on degree prices and what (negative) changes this would wreak on the existing system.

    The 20% cuts to fed funding figured significantly in her argument.

  • 66
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    “@JakeSturmer: @JakeSturmer: Now hear for yourself. Alan Jones and @TurnbullMalcolm on @2GB873 (via @MarkDiStef) #auspol https://t.co/UZCNfnedh3”

  • 67
    markjs
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    Chris Mitchell: “Sometimes I think people get too political in their tweets and they engage in too much banter on Twitter with their opponents and I discourage that. I’d like to see them use Twitter to market their stories.”

    This statement demonstrates a fundamental mis-understanding that many people have about Twitter. It is NOT a marketing tool …users are very resistant to any form of advertising and will only link to articles from journos & newspapers they trust. In fact many use Twitter as a means of organising boycotts of untrustworthy newspapers and/or their obvious propaganda campaigns.

    The Australian is toxic on Twitter, and any attempt by Mitchell to use it to market it’s product would be counter-productive..

  • 68
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    Sorry take off quotation marks from last tweet if using link

  • 69
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Of course, reducing funding by 20% will have to be made up for by the student.

    I was speaking to a couple of secondary school teachers a few days ago, and they are horrified.
    They are hoping that Labor/Greens and minor parties ensure that this does not occur

  • 70
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Guytaur

    Have you listened to the Jones Turnbull interview?

  • 71
    autocrat
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Psephos:

    I think most of them would prefer Bishop. She’s a Protestant Thatcherite, more conservative than Turnbull, very well-connected with the WA business elite, and not as obviously incompetent as Abbott and Hockey. As I said before – Bishop for PM, Morrison for Defence, Turnbull for Treasurer, Robb for Foreign Affairs.

    Except for Robb. Putting someone with a depressive illness in a job that entails lots of jet lag is a singularly bad idea. Naturally with this mob, that means it will probably be tried at some point.

  • 72
    Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Some snippets from The Lowy Institute Poll 2014, the tenth year of its polling on Australia and the world:
    http://www.lowyinstitute.org/files/2014-lowy-institute-poll.pdf

    Climate change and global warming:

    In 2014, 45% of Australians see global warming as a
    ‘serious and pressing problem’, up five points and the
    second consecutive increase in concern since 2012. A
    significant majority (63%) say that the government ‘should
    be taking a leadership role on reducing emissions’. Only
    28% believe ‘it should wait for an international consensus
    before acting’.

    Asylum seeker policy:

    Australians strongly support the government’s policy
    of turning back boats when safe to do so, with 71% in
    agreement. A majority (59%) support offshore processing
    of asylum seekers in places such as Nauru and Papua
    New Guinea. Temporary protection visas are more
    divisive, 48% agreeing with this policy idea against 49%
    disagreeing. Less than half (42%) agree that ‘no asylum
    seeker coming to Australia by boat should be allowed to
    settle in Australia’.

    Australians and democracy:

    Confirming our previous Poll results, only 60% of
    Australian adults, and just 42% of 18-29 year-olds, say
    ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’.
    Only a small majority of the population (53%) choose
    ‘a good democracy’ over a ‘strong economy’. For those
    who do not see democracy as the preferable form of
    government, the strongest reasons are that ‘democracy is
    not working because there is no real difference between
    the policies of the major parties’ (45% citing this as a
    major reason) and ‘democracy only serves the interests of
    a few and not the majority of society’ (42%).

    Australia’s intelligence practices:

    It seems many Australians are comfortable about the
    Australian Government spying on other countries,
    including our friends. Most (70%) believe it is acceptable
    to spy on governments of countries with which Australia
    does not have good relations. Half say this is acceptable
    even for countries with which Australia has good
    relations. For the majority, it is acceptable for Australia to
    spy on China (65%), Indonesia (62%), East Timor (60%),
    Japan (58%), the United States (54%), France (53%) and
    even New Zealand (51%).

  • 73
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Turnbull is finding out just how vindictive and nasty Abbott can be. He should be in no doubt that the 2GB onslaught, from Ben Fordham a couple of days ago, to Jones today, is a co-ordinated attack.

    Abbott always gets others to do the real nasty things that he doesn’t want to be seen doing himself.

    I don’t know what the fascination is with him. The shock jocks seem to worship the ground he walks on. The slightest attack on him… and they go feral.

    Maybe it’s just a matter of like attracted to like.

    This is Abbott’s Australia: full of fear, threats, mockery, verbal violence, wedges, one demographic set against another, trash talk and hatred.

    It’s not the kind of place I like to live in.

  • 74
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    IMHO some peeps are over-analysing the whys and wherefores of the PPL policy. Let’s start at the beginning.

    (1) Abbott was struggling with a real or perceived difficulty with women. (And congratulations to the women of Australia, they figured Abbott out much faster than Australian men did.)

    (2) Solution: do a big stunt.

    (3) The policy objective was simple. It was not catholic or anything else as people seem to think. Abbott wanted to assault Labor on his problem-with-women-battlefront from the left flank.

    (4) The usual brainfart policy process was kicked into gear. That is to say, Abbott had an addled chat with a design student and then listened to Credlin’s ukaze.

    (5) Five minutes later, and having studiously left his Shadow Front Bench completely out of the process, voila! PPL.

    (6) Fix the uproar amongst the Coalition Ultra Dries, Small Government Zealots and Business Spives by uttering the somewhat prophetic utterance about it being better sometimes to jump now and to say sorry afterwrds.

    (7) Spend the next 12 months defending the policy against all comers.

    (8) Pop the PPL into a bizarre budget mix contrary to the main messagess of ‘The end of age entitlement’ and ‘everybody has to contribute’ and ‘budget crisis’.

    Therefore, IMHO, the best way to understand PPL is that Abbott is power hungry, narcissist fool who not only dudded the Australian people but his own Party. The former have to cop him until the next election. The latter only have to cop him for as long as they want him.

    One rotten apple gone. One rotten apple to go.

  • 75
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Not yet

  • 76
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp speaking on the Federal #Budget http://t.co/TTkTJ5G5Ba #auspol #Budget2014”

  • 77
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    BB

    This is Abbott’s Australia: full of fear, threats, mockery, verbal violence, wedges, one demographic set against another, trash talk and hatred.

    Well it’s not as if your posts are other than uplifting please for a more worthy public discourse.

    :-)

    Much of what you complain of is part and parcel of any community haggling over who gets to do what to whim and with which resources. Many people are going to lace their observations with fear, threats, mockery, verbal violence, wedges, trash talk and hatred. Just the other day you were saying that everyone was racist in one way or another.

    Now don’t get me wrong — your newly expressed embrace for keeping dialog above the belt is to be welcomed. It’s a bit early though for you to imply you can’t tolerate the obloquy.

  • 78
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    lefty e@50

    China moving to an absolute cap on emissions, as well as an intensity cap.

    With the new US EPA regulations, this makes a major international agreement very likely. Abbott the wrong man for the wrong time, again.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-plans-to-set-an-absolute-cap-on-carbon-emissions-20140603-zrwpj.html

    Voters were told all of this many many times – now its happening.

  • 79
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Now don’t get me wrong — your newly expressed embrace for keeping dialog above the belt is to be welcomed.

    You are such a patronizing sod, Fran. Piss off.

  • 80
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Shorten: “I couldn’t give a toss about the Libs’ internal problems. I do care, though, about what they are doing to families with this budget.”
    Good stuff. Stand back and watch it all happen.

  • 81
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Its god hearing the questions

  • 82
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    P@10

    Your are not the first to tout Bishop the Younger for leader.

    At survival without showing much at all in terms of actual ability to achieve anything, she gets 10/10 for mine.

    I would have thought with some lipstick a la pig, Morrison is the type to lead the Liberals.

    After having watched and participated in the attack on the red-headed witch as you describe PMJG, I wonder the Liberals would chance their arm on BtheJ.

    Your other reasons for her choice are quite sensible it must be said, but it is not the path the Libs will take – if puss comes to shove.

  • 83
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    The cop in Adelade handling the Clavell siege seems to be the real deal.

  • 84
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    Latika Bourke is also tweeting the Jones interview if you want text to quote

  • 85
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    guytaur@65

    “@JakeSturmer: @JakeSturmer: Now hear for yourself. Alan Jones and @TurnbullMalcolm on @2GB873 (via @MarkDiStef) #auspol https://t.co/UZCNfnedh3”

    Extraordinary audio – I have no time for Turnbull – but WTF does jones think he is.

  • 86
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    Bishop has the baton in her rucksack.

    But Bishop was sacked as Shadow Spokesperson for Something Important because she could not hack the job. In other words, her peers have already judged her to be an incompetent when it comes to serious men’s business and even when in Opposition when it should have been a brain dead doddle.

    In successive leaderships stoushes, and even when she led the disproportionate numbers from the West before the last election, she only ever became Number Two to serial Number Ones.

    She has just lost a fight to install her favourite as Liberal Party President.

    But. let’s face it, all that fades into insignificance when it comes to addressing the real problems with Bishop as potential prime minister:

    (a) all the old white male misogynists who hated Gillard because she was a woman will hate Bishop because she is woman, and;

    (b) she is barren.

  • 87
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    I managed 9 minutes of the AJ/MT interview before hitting the ‘stop’ button.

  • 88
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Tricot

    You are right abt bishop being a survivor as a long serving deputy Tory leader

    I always thought that was because the various leaders saw that the perfect deputy was someone who was no threat to themselves rather than an heir who carries a big knife.

  • 89
    BSA Bob
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Boerwar @ 73
    Yair, I reckon that’s it. Abbott wanted to be PM regardless, hence the stunt. The coalition wanted to be in government regardless, hence the falling in line.
    Two other things.
    While the focus of criticism was on the (very) well paid, one of the bribe’s big selling points was its universality. Everyone with a kid on the way stood to benefit.
    And, in view of his history of socialising his own expenditure, Abbott’s simply being a good provider. His daughters will presumably present him with offspring & far more convenient to have the taxpayer fund them than for the costs to be borne by the family coffers.

  • 90
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    Bishop has the baton in her rucksack.

    Sheridan -

    ..Bishop has been the worst opposition foreign affairs spokesperson in the 30-odd years that I have watched this position closely.

    ..You couldn't even begin to list the astonishing blunders she has made in the portfolio

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/bishops-errors-of-judgment-compound-the-coalitions-woes/story-e6frg6zo-1226005396902

  • 91
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    CTar1@86

    I managed 9 minutes of the AJ/MT interview before hitting the ‘stop’ button.

    I’m enjoying every moment of it.

    Both of them are ‘looking’ ridiculous.

    More please.

  • 92
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    There is one pleasant aspect about the speculation of “Who might lead the Liberals if not Abbott……” is this fact that this is barely months into the term of the new government.

    To think Abbott and his side have very comfortable majority in the Reps yet the Libs seem to be at least turning over the pebbles for someone else, so soon, is a something one would not have anticipated.

    Who would have thunk it?

    It’s the damn Senate isn’t it? If not, it’s the damn Labor and the Greens.

    How long before we get….”It is all those influences overseas of which Oz has no control”?

    The surprising this is how hard going the conservatives are finding government and as an aside, what a man with clay feet Hockey seems to be after all.

  • 93
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    jones says – near the end of the *interview* -

    ....a very very balanced and sensitive interview.

    FFS.

  • 94
    Raaraa
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    33 BK, 50 lefty e

    I’m loving today’s David Pope

    “Hush, the Adults are in charge.”

  • 95
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Fran kelly just concluded her weekly morning segment with jon Faine.

    The discussion revolved around Turnbull going on the Alan jones program and how over the top the liberal supporters such as jones and Bolt are going against Turnbull.

    Also that the senior Liberal or liberals leaking to mark simkin re the nats being done over re th fuel excise. Fran says that whilst this is being denied, there is no way Simkin was not told this in the first instance.
    There is mischief making going on, and basically watch this space.

  • 96
    Raaraa
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Jon Faine played back that clip where Turnbull hit back at AJ, saying that AJ and Bolt are doing the job for Labor.

  • 97
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Raaraa

    Yep and Labor are happy to stand back and watch

  • 98
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Vic

    There is mischief making going on, and basically watch this space.

    Sit back and enjoy it while the tories tear each other apart.

  • 99
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Regarding the Coalition’s (in)discipline. I think that what we’re seeing is a bunch of horses coming off a narrow racetrack and onto an open field. Keeping them together on the latter takes more skill than on the former.

  • 100
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    @abcnews: Story: #ICAC finds Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi corrupt http://t.co/qhbOI4epgC

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