tip off

BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor’s post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there’s no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

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  • 101
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    dave

    This latest saga re the Nats has got me scratching my head as to who leaked to Simkin

  • 102
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Excellent!

  • 103
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Which Nat or disaffected Liberal in cabinet do you think likely? I am at a loss on that one. I don’t think it was Turnbull

  • 104
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    My initial thought is that it was in fact Turnbull! But i seriously dont know

  • 105
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    victoria

    If rumours are true about Johnstone it might be him.

  • 106
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Could well indeed be him. He is doing a good impersonation of being disgruntled

  • 107
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    China moving to an absolute cap on emissions

    China – moving to an absolute cap
    Abbott – climate change is absolute crap

  • 108
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Vic – Yes couple of factions at work ?

    The obvious anti turnbull one backed by bolt/ jones.

    No doubt turnbull in there beavering away as well – but is he involved in the leaking to Simkins about shafting the Nats or are others involved?

    Turnbull pulling the strings?

  • 109
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Crikey!

    This tweet from yesterday seems to have hit a nerve somewhere.

    https://twitter.com/BushfireBill/status/473985694814056448

  • 110
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    guytaur@99

    @abcnews: Story: #ICAC finds Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi corrupt http://t.co/qhbOI4epgC

    Probably McDonald as well ?

    Report still coming in….

  • 111
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    To put it all in context.

    The far right are fighting among themselves.

    Palmer and his offsiders and the Libs, including Credlin and hubby. Palmer and Rupert’s minions.
    The shock jocks and nutty columnists and Malcolm.
    The Libs and the Nats fighting over fuel.

    Strange how they run around like headless chooks and still manage to squawk incoherently.

  • 112
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    dave

    Question is what is to be achieved by a senior lib or libs telling ABC journo Mark Simkin, that the Nats were dudded?
    Is it to cause ruptions primarily with Abbott?

    Anyhoo talk later

  • 113
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    [@abcnews: Story: #ICAC finds Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi corrupt http://t.co/qhbOI4epgC

    Least surprising headline of the year.

  • 114
    J341983
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    I’m not quite sure what Turnbull is up to… locking-in behind the Budget seems to be some weird attempt at loyalty, but it absolutely cripples his brand.

  • 115
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Before i go. This on twitter

    Glad that is all sorted! The Liberals deny they lied to the Nats. Phew huh? Mind you the Liberals deny they lied to the electorate #auspol

  • 116
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    @lizfoschia: The next NSW gov will be David Hurley – currently chief of Defence force. Marie Bashir retiring #nswpol

  • 117
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Wasn’t Eddie found to be corrupt last year by the same mob.

    Looks to be in rude health still.

    Perhaps he’s been crying all the way to the Bank.

  • 118
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Interesting to see if ICAC found Tripodi lied to It which was alleged

  • 119
    J341983
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    I think everyone knows the Libs generally hate the Nats as hand-out loving whiners. It’s just that they sometimes need them to ensure majorities.

  • 120
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    I assume that the person who “leaked” to Simkin will be a Palmer leaning Liberal with strong National Party links.

    The obvious strategy for Palmer (since he is a National at heart) is to split the coalition. If he can grab the Nats he has a solid party of 10-15 federally and many more in Qld. He may also be able to turf Campbell Newman from Qld

  • 121
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    david Hurley to be NSW Governor: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/general-david-hurley-to-be-nsw-governor-20140605-39kau.html

  • 122
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    “@delimiterau: Just a heads-up, we should be seeing Jason Clare vs Malcolm Turnbull at 50 paces in Federation Chamber sometime after 11. #NBN #auspol”

  • 123
    Raaraa
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    The question is, why do Nat supporters still go on supporting them knowing that the Libs will shaft them?

  • 124
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    The white cars and the regional rorting!

  • 125
    ajm
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Point 1: I reckon Simkins informers have to be Hockey and Cormann. It just fits – total arrogance plus they would have to have been the ones driving the deception. Maybe Pyne got a cameo role.

    Point 2: Why is Turnbull seeming to lock in behind the budget? – he has to avoid being destroyed for disloyalty — but just see how many “alternative paths” he would discover if he become leader.

    Point 3: Wonder how Peta Credlin will feel after she hears the sympathetic words uttered in her support by Malcolm in the Jones interview? – especially after sweating all the way on the plane to Indonesia over a hot laptop preparing all the questions for Jones.

  • 126
    autocrat
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Not even the Libs are stupid enough to repeat Labor’s mistake of 2010, so getting rid of Abbott isn’t on anyone’s agenda at this point in time (that may change near the next election if things are still going badly for them).

    My theory is that Turnbull is sick of being the laughing stock of the tech community and wants out of the comms portfolio. After all, he did Abbott’s bidding by wrecking the NBN, now he wants his promised reward. Abbott, being a slimy pig, is stonewalling with a view to reneging, so Turnbull is putting the wind up him by deliberately putting space between himself and government policy, especially the budget.

    Turnbull won’t be silenced cheaply or easily. Reshuffle on the cards within a few months I think.

    /conspiracytheoryoftheday

  • 127
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Just listened to the Jones – Turnbull crap.

    Jones was outrageous and totally delusional and paranoid about the ABC. He’s clearly riding the wave of his top ratings with glee (god knows how or why so many people listen to him …. I cam only conclude that the ratings system must be shite ….. surely !!)

    But Turnbull was absolutely piss week. Sure, he bit back a bit at the beginning, but for 20 minutes he tried to appear rational and thoughtful and at no time spoke up about what Jones’s diatribe actually was ….. the hypocritical ravings of an unstable person. Nor did he counter them except those reflecting on himself.

    For example Jones went to town about the Chasers and Kenny’s dogshagging, ad nauseam, as though it had caused Kenny a fatal hear attack or something such. As though Kenny was some paragon of virtue.

    Neither one of them referred to the ABC “comedy” show about PMJG. Turnbull at no time mentioned any of the outright abusive things Jones said over and over about the then current PM.

    Jones lacks rationality. Turnbull lacks character.

  • 128
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    It was ever thus for The Rapacity.

    They all agree that ‘Greed is Good’. But that it is the easy bit.

    Their problems start when they get around to deciding ‘Whose Greed is better?’

  • 129
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    Bw – Serious disagreement about who gets the snout in furtherest.

  • 130
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    They just don’t care

    “@SenatorSiewert: Govt has done no calculations on increase in homelessness of young ppl as result of having no income support #estimates #bustthebudget”

  • 131
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    psy

    Jones is both very rational and replete with rat cunning.

    He is rational because he works a defined segment of the market with consummate skill. That audience brings advertising revenue to 2GB. Which pays Jones a motsa for his troubles.

    The personal messages for sale are a handy little income stream as well.

    The rat cunning is displayed time after time in the way that Jones frames reality and sets the agenda for his show. After all, apart from some very mild legal constaints, he can pretty well say what he wants to say.

    He could, for example, get away with calling for a prime minister to be put in a chaff bag and dropped in the ocean. Really, what’s left after that?

    The basic outcome is that people like Turmbull are complete mugs to go toe-to-toe with Jones.

    Their game is lost before they star. Jones sets the rules and serves first.

    Turnbull’s lack of judgement is that he has somehow not learned a basic new rule established during the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd governments.

    Attack dogs don’t discuss. They snarl. The bite. They scratch. They seek to eviscerate. A steaming pile of political entrails is the desired outcome

    Here is a tip, Malcolm: When the Right Attack Dogs are going for your throat, presenting your throat is a bad idea.

  • 132
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    Retweeted by Possum Comitatus
    Simon ‏@Jovianshadow 32m

    Gold! RT @fakeedbutler: Hahaha this is just a great great photo RT @hayesy316: pic.twitter.com/cbW1vhpRtS

    Someone is bored :P

  • 133
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    @beneltham: Greens claim their new “What will my degree cost” website has had 1m hits and 250k visits in less than a day http://t.co/gb4GmKP8vC

  • 134
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    I suspect a lot of non PUP voters may tirn up

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/clive-palmer-voters-free-entry-resort-politics-dinosaurs?CMP=twt_gu

  • 135
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    Joe Tripodi expelled from Labor Party

    @SeanNic: NSW Labor statement on Joe Tripodi expulsion #ICAC

    http://t.co/e9O9iEwJ5U

  • 136
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Sprocket

    I’m surprised they hadn’t expelled him earlier.

  • 137
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    There are cuts to councils in the Federal Budget. So Labor asking for a guarantee that council rates will not increase

  • 138
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    guytaur
    Liverpool Council rates are set to rise by 12%

  • 139
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    What’s with the creeping militarisation of our viceregal representatives?

    First Cosgrove, now Hurley?

    It makes me deeply uncomfortable – even more so than putting religious leaders into these positions.

  • 140
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    BHP cutting 100 jobs in WA.

  • 141
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    @LU/138

    It’s a mark of a party who has lost it’s way.

    Job for the boys, everyone else gets scrap.

    Not only that, but I’d say they will also be funding a slush fund (like we seeing in NSW Liberal Party) somewhere.

  • 142
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    Retweeted by sortius
    Parliament Library ‏@ParlLibrary 2m

    The Attorney-General’s suggested changes to the Racial Discrimination Act 1975: http://bit.ly/1mUDUsm

  • 143
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    Tripodi – The mills of justice grind slowly.

  • 144
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    LU

    What’s with the creeping militarisation of our viceregal representatives?

    First Cosgrove, now Hurley?

    It makes me deeply uncomfortable – even more so than putting religious leaders into these positions.

    I am with you on this but at least Hurley made that video last year re sexism in the Military Forces.

    He displayed a lot of character at that time.

  • 145
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    NSW has had a fair few military governors

  • 146
    Martin B
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    Former occupations of Aus-born GGs:

    Judge/lawyer/legal academic: 6
    Politician: 5
    Military: 3
    Cleric: 1

    That’s the full list of professions… (NB: Isaacs counted as both judge and politician.)

  • 147
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    Ctar1

    I am waiting to see just how far this goes.

    Expelling them from the ALP is one thing but what they were doing was disgraceful. They all need to be judged under the law as well for mine.

  • 148
    J341983
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    @138 – I don’t see how it’s that bad. I’d happily take a military guy over cleric any day.

  • 149
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    shellbell

    Can ICAC impose a penalty on these creeps or does it have to refer them to the Courts?

  • 150
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 5, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    sortius ‏@sortius 1m

    This Canadian Cable exec can’t get work in Canada because they’re all moving to FTTP… #NBN

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