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Federal Election 2016

Jun 7, 2014

Seat of the week: Maranoa

Covering Queensland's south-western interior, Maranoa has been in National/Country Party hands without interruption for over 70 years, current member Bruce Scott having assumed the seat in 1990.

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Teal numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal National Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria.

Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.

Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.

The seat’s present long-serving incumbent is Bruce Scott, who served in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, losing the position when the Nationals’ weak electorate performance in 2001 reduced its share of the spoils. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2772 comments

2,772 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Maranoa

  1. kezza2

    bemused

    Listen up pal. I’m sick of your pathetic assertions of misdandry regarding Rudd.

    It wouldn’t have mattered who’d replaced Rudd in 2010, I would have supported him. And I say him, deliberately.

    Because, on balance, it was always likely that Rudd would have been replaced by a bloke.

    And, let’s just say he had been replaced by a bloke. I would have celebrated that bloke because, to me, Rudd was pretty much unable to get any legislation through despite the configuration of the Senate.

    And also because he couldn’t take anyone with him.

    He’d dropped the ball, big time, especially concerning climate change legislation.

    And he handled the MRRT badly.

    He was going nowhere fast.

    I won’t even go into the deliberate undermining of Gillard’s leadership during the 2010 election, but despite the odds, she won the negotiations.

    And formed government.

    If she hadn’t been undermined by the blokes in her own party, she would still be there. Despite Murdoch’s intervention.

    And Labor’s legacy would be being enacted as we speak.

    Instead, courtesy of a stinking Rupert press, a foul stench of male vengeance within Labor itself, we now find ourselves with Abbot as PM.

    And with religious anti-abortion back on the agenda (in Victoria – if you don’t know what Shaw stands for) not to mention the stake through the heart of tertiary education for all and the dismantling of universal health; to mention but three items that strike at the core of equality, then Labor men have a lot to answer for.

    You were on the side of those who wished to depose Gillard. And you have a lot to answer for, too.

    You pay lip-service to women.

    You think by saying you you love your grand-daughters, that you encourage them is all you have to do to proclaim your feminist credentials. Not so.

    What you really have to do, is to ask yourself, if there was a situation in which a grandson was pitched against a granddaughter, who’d you really barrack for?

  2. meher baba

    Oops, re-reading what I wrote, I realise I forgot to state that the AWU itself is a complex sort of organisation with a different character in different states. Gillard managed to become closer to some elements of the AWU (and their parliamentary associates) than others.

    I might add that I’m not putting myself forward as any sort of an expert on these union matters, but am trying to point in the direction where some of this anti-Gillard stuff is coming from: and I don’t believe it ultimately has anything much to do with Tony Abbott.

  3. Boerwar

    I see that folks are blaming Obama for what happened/is happening in Mosul.

    Are the war mongers getting itchy trigger fingers again?

    The US is saying that Al Maliki should get his political act together. What the US means is that he should stop ruling for the Shia and start being more inclusive.

    Two chances of that, IMHO. Buckley’s and the other one.

  4. poroti

    psyclaw

    [ R C evidence that Wilson and JG discussed personal financial matters in front of a builder]

    Missed that but boy would I need a pile of salt to believe that remarkable display of memory.

  5. zoidlord

    Kenneth Tsang ‏@jxeeno 11m

    … and the irony in all of this is that #NBN Co probably doesn’t care if the AFR misleads. More negative press about the former mgmt right?

  6. DisplayName

    meher
    [I’m struggling to understand why the Gillard-Wilson-Blewitt story has been immediately given centre stage …]
    Uh.

    [I don’t believe it ultimately has anything much to do with Tony Abbott.]
    No wonder you’re struggling.

    [Anyway, whatever has brought us to where we are now, I think what we have seen emerge this week is not so much a manifestation of a Liberal conspiracy against Labor as the reopening of some old, old wounds within the Labor movement as a whole. ]
    Why not both. All these old Labor wounds are seen by the Liberal party as an opportunity to stick the boot in.

  7. meher baba

    A final PS: I’m not really surprised by the extent to which some of the witnesses can recall the events of 20 years ago. In my dealings with union people, I have observed that many of their internal and external dealings are conducted at a fever pitch of agitation. Everyone is highly competitive with, and deeply suspicious of, everyone else.

    This level of constant emotional excitement tends to be very bad for one’s physical and psychological health over time, but it does tend to be extremely good for developing one’s long-term memory. After all, nothing is better than total recall for helping one to maintain a grudge.

  8. BK

    Ken Smith now speaking in Vic parliament. Here we go!

  9. poroti

    Boerwar

    The War Party are getting nervous. After the US slips/slinks out of Afghanistan they’ll be fresh out of wars to fight for the first time in ,like ages.

  10. BK

    Ken Smith wimps it and will not support Shaw’s expulsion.

  11. Steve777

    If there is a concern about corruption in the union movement why are they raking over what appears to be relatively minor stuff that happened nearly 20 years ago?

  12. Boerwar

    I had an opportunity to read the AFR this morning over a relaxing latte but chose instead to leaf through it. The Stutchburinisation of the AFR is continuing apace. Wall-to-wall Abbott was the overarching perception.

    There was one interesting sort of article. It was by a chinese person from a chinese institute of some sort or other. It put the case that the Chinese oil rig is not in Vietnamese waters but, because of its geographic relationship to some Chinese islands is actually in Chinese waters.

    The article appeared to avoid the notion that since the waters were contested, some sort of process for addressing the contest, short of plonking down an oil rig and sinking a Vietnamese fishing vessal, might be in order.

    Apart from being the official line, the interesting thing to me was the existence of the article at all.

    Someone may just have noticed that a certain pattern of behaviour has succeeded in alienating just about everyone else.

  13. Boerwar

    [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    The War Party are getting nervous. After the US slips/slinks out of Afghanistan they’ll be fresh out of wars to fight for the first time in ,like ages.]

    Yep. The probably remember the slump in defence spending post-Vietnam.

  14. DisplayName

    Steve, because that is what they were directed to do by the Abbott government. While Abbott and the Liberals may not be the main characters in all of this, they are enabling the whole opera.

  15. Boerwar

    Maybe the Royal Commission into unions is supposed to work a bit like the Patagonia picnic table effect?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patagonia_picnic_table_effect

  16. Rex Douglas

    Ken Smith has buckled and will vote with the Vic Govt.

    Mr Shaw, the rorter, survives.

  17. kezza2

    [psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza

    1) just a while back you put up the exact argument Rex had earlier put up (about JG’s magnificence in all the circumstances) and then you abused him.

    2) a few hours back BB commented on R C evidence that Wilson and JG discussed personal financial matters in front of a builder. You retorted mockingly to BB about how widespread it is that builders accept cash payments. The issue BB was commenting on had nothing at all to do with making cash payments to builders.

    Suggest you read posts before going off about them and getting right up the commenters.

    Here is a suggested reply from you to me which you can cut n paste: “fuck off Psyclaw, you dickhead”]

    Oh, Christ, you’re no better than Kernohan. Always wanting vengeance against someone who has apologised to you on many occasions about your dessicated balls.

    I suggest you re-read posts too, sweetie, before you go off half-cocked. And before I’ve had a chance to reply.

    Like you, I get some things right, and some things wrong.

    But, if you’re like my father, it must be so hard to be humble when you’re perfect in every way.

  18. Boerwar

    Tainted vote.

  19. DisplayName

    I’m confused. I thought Victoria was in crisis. How does suspending Shaw resolve the crisis?

  20. citizen

    Just like Qantas, Australia Post has an extremely highly paid CEO who wants to downsize and sack staff – it’s the same old story:

    [Australia Post job cuts: Acting Prime Minister Warren Truss backs Ahmed Fahour’s $4.8m salary

    Acting Prime Minister Warren Truss has backed the multi-million dollar salary paid to the head of Australia Post, as the Opposition says unions are right to question the pay of executives who slash jobs.

    “It’s a decision for their board. Australia Post is facing real challenges and they will need quality management and an innovative board to solve the problems…

    Joan Doyle from the Communications Workers Union says Mr Fahour is struggling in the top job.

    “Given that he’s still not really kicking goals we think that that salary’s excessive,” she said.

    Mr Fahour says he does not determine his own pay.

    “The matter of compensation is a matter for the board,” he told Radio National.

    Ms Doyle says the same board has restricted pay rises for ordinary postal workers but backed big bonuses for the bosses.

    “The staff were very upset when he got a 66 per cent pay rise last year and they got a 1.5 per cent pay rise,” she said.

    “While the board might set Mr Fahour’s salary, there’s a bit of {a} symbiotic relationship between the board and Mr Fahour, where he looks after them and they look after him.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/truss-backs-australia-post-boss-4-million-salary/5516112

  21. Rex Douglas

    Vic ALP must now be consistent with anyone found by the Privileges Committee to be a rorter and move to have them expelled.

  22. kezza2

    [kezza2
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 5:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    psyclaw]

    Are you serious?

  23. ruawake

    We must also understand that nowicki tried to sell his law firm to Slater and Gordon and hoped to receive millions of dollars from the sale.

    It never eventuated and he holds a grudge.

    He was found guilty of unethical behaviour by the law society, this made the sale problematic.

  24. shellbell

    McLlelland was at Turner Freeman which has been a bitter rival of Slater & Gordon for yonks

  25. lizzie

    Is that true? Smith chickened out after vowing he’d vote with Labor?

  26. kezza2

    psyclaw

    In case you’re wondering, I did reply to you. It’s been put in moderation. I don’t know why.

    The worst I said was “balls” or maybe it was “Christ” or maybe it was “half-cocked”. Or perhaps it was that unmentionable “humble.”

    Who knows.

    I demand it be published in full. And let you decide.

  27. citizen

    [Boerwar

    There was one interesting sort of article. It was by a chinese person from a chinese institute of some sort or other. It put the case that the Chinese oil rig is not in Vietnamese waters but, because of its geographic relationship to some Chinese islands is actually in Chinese waters.]

    It seems that if there are no islands handy to justify your territorial claims, then you build your own islands:

    [China Building Dubai-Style Fake Islands in South China Sea

    Sand, cement, wood and steel are the latest tools in China’s territorial arsenal as it seeks to literally reshape the South China Sea.

    Chinese ships carrying construction materials regularly ply the waters near the disputed Spratly Islands, carrying out work that will see new islands rise from the sea, according to Philippine fishermen and officials in the area. China’s efforts are reminiscent of Dubai’s Palm resort-style land reclamation, they say.

    “They are creating artificial islands that never existed since the creation of the world, like the ones in Dubai,” said Eugenio Bito-onon, 58, mayor of a sparsely populated stretch of the Spratlys called Kalayaan, or “freedom” in Filipino. “The construction is massive and nonstop. That would lead to total control of the South China Sea,” Bito-onon said May 28, citing fishermen.

    Artificial islands could help China anchor its claims and potentially develop bases to control waters that contain some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. China, which says the area falls within its 1940s-era “nine-dash line” map, successfully assumed control of the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012 and has pressured Vietnam in the past month with an exploration oil rig in waters claimed by its neighbor.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/china-using-dubai-style-fake-islands-to-reshape-south-china-sea.html

  28. psyclaw

    Kezza

    Kernahan and your father are both males.

    BTW what was wrong with the reply I suggested?

  29. psyclaw

    Kezza

    I think it went in to moderation because it contained the F word (written by me) in your quote. I think it’s an auto process (software recognises some words/phrases.)

    But your full reply was available for me to read.

    Thanks

  30. Steve777

    Re BW @2588: I imagine a close look at some of the shadowy figures and institutes funding the Liberal Party would yield a Patagonia effect as well. I am sure corporations and wealthy individuals hope for more than just the warm glow that they are ‘supporting democracy’, ‘promoting freedom’ or whatever.

  31. ruawake

    [The Palmer United Party (PUP) has confirmed it will support legislation to scrap the carbon tax, as long as there is a legal requirement on power companies to pass the savings on to consumers.]

    Has nobody picked up what this really means? The Govt has to legislate a % reduction that electricity retailers must make. Except they don’t pay the CT, the generators do.

    So the Govt has to regulate the wholesale and retail prices of electricity. Except they cannot, its a State issue.

    Its always best to think about what Palmer says, before counting Senate votes.

  32. waznaki

    Handscombe is very switched on. She asked the builder why Gillard would be so specific to a virtual stranger about how the work would be paid for. He said that he And Gillard got very close and had all sorts of conversations about politics. Only problem, as Handscombe pointed out, was he’d said earlier that Gillard had told him Wilson would be paying at the very first time they met.

  33. kakuru

    [Ken Smith has buckled and will vote with the Vic Govt.

    Mr Shaw, the rorter, survives.]

    It’s a stay of execution. For Shaw, and the Coalition.

  34. pedant

    ruawake @ 2604: This reminds me of the provision that was supposed to be in effect when the GST came in, banning “price gouging”, whatever that meant. How that was supposed to sit with the failure of the 1973 referendum to give the Commonwealth power to control prices never seemed all that clear.

    Probably the government could include a clause in its bill as suggested by Mr Palmer, in the knowledge that it might well not stand up in court.

  35. zoidlord

    Now greens going after Palmer lol.

    Retweeted by Greens
    Christine Milne ‏@senatormilne 4m

    Clive Palmer should tell Australians how much his companies stand to gain from abolition of carbon price. #auspol #conflictofinterest

  36. kezza2

    psyclaw

    to address your concerns regarding the maleness of folks.

    [(1) just a while back you put up the exact argument Rex had earlier put up (about JG’s magnificence in all the circumstances) and then you abused him.]

    I sure did. You are absolutely correct. I was probably more aghast than you at the “copy & paste” I’d done.

    In Rex’s favour, he acknowledged that I’d got his sentiment right, even though I was using an incorrect quote of his.

    And I haven’t yet got round to apologising for using the wrong quote.

    Rex and I were essentially on the same wavelength but on the wrong page. Until you butted in.

    [(2) a few hours back BB commented on R C evidence that Wilson and JG discussed personal financial matters in front of a builder. You retorted mockingly to BB about how widespread it is that builders accept cash payments. The issue BB was commenting on had nothing at all to do with making cash payments to builders.]
    No mocking about it. I was stating a fact. Many facts. As I recall BB was asking about why cash/cheques were even an issue.

    I happened to watch that part of the RC, and it was sort of obvious to me, that Athol James was trying to make out his business was an above board. That, contrary to popular opinion, he ran his business on a strictly cheque-only-pay-day – back in 1993.

    That was ludicrous. Especially in Victoria where we were dealing with Jeff Kennett’s ideology. The black market never did such a roaring trade.

    If I missed the pertinence of BB’s comments, then I’m sure he would have told me. So, pray tell, what did you think BB meant by his comments.

  37. chinda63

    [Has nobody picked up what this really means? The Govt has to legislate a % reduction that electricity retailers must make. Except they don’t pay the CT, the generators do.

    So the Govt has to regulate the wholesale and retail prices of electricity. Except they cannot, its a State issue.

    Its always best to think about what Palmer says, before counting Senate votes.]

    It’s always possible that dear Cliev doesn’t actually realise this …

  38. citizen

    If Abbott reckons carbon trading is on the way out, he hasn’t read this article:

    [BEIJING – China is the world’s second largest carbon trading market following the European Union (EU), according to data released on Tuesday.

    Xie Zhenhua, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said Chinese enterprises traded over 3.85 million tons of carbon emission quotas as of May 23.
    These quotas were sold for 125 million yuan ($20.2 million), making China a major carbon trader only second to the EU.]

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/greenchina/2014-06/11/content_17577749.htm</a.

  39. Diogenes

    Nate Silver says Brazil for the World Cup, rated 42.5% chance. Brazil are rated at 3/1 with the bookies which are very good odds if you trust Nate.

    [With home ground advantage factored in, alongside all the other data, Silver’s Soccer Power Index gives Brazil a 45.2 per cent chance of winning the World Cup, ahead of Argentina (12.8 per cent), Germany (10.9 per cent), Spain (7.6 per cent) and Chile (4.2 per cent).]

  40. BK

    Electricity pricing alone won’t come anywhere near Abbott’s $550 pa “carbon tax cash back”.

  41. zoidlord

    @BK/2613

    It’s a slogan for fooling people.

  42. Rex Douglas

    kezza

    Don’t sweat it.

    🙂

  43. kezza2

    meher
    [There seem to me to be a lot of old hatreds and unsettled scores coming to the surface here. They don’t really reflect well on anybody involved, including Gillard.]

    Excuse me?

    Why do you include Gillard in this? What has she ever said or done would make you think she is a vindictive human? You have absolutely no evidence that she has ever indulged in the past-time of wounding other folk in the Labor party.

    Every time this issue is raised it is all about blokes who are upset.

    It’s all about blokes getting revenge. Payback.

    Don’t you think it’s about time the blokes started graduating from kindergarten?

  44. lizzie

    Thanks for reminding me about the treacherous McClelland.

  45. Rex Douglas

    Clive Palmer is just another con artist.

    I for one aren’t fooled.

  46. ruawake

    Clive is keeping his powder dry in case he needs a populist change of heart over the CT, despite what the ABC seems to say he has created a huge amount of wriggle room.

  47. shellbell

    Nate Silver has Australia somewhere beneath the bottom of the barrel

  48. lizzie

    Dutton/Abbott must be very pleased with this wedge they have created.

    [Researchers and scientists may take to the streets to protest if the government’s proposed $20bn medical research fund falls foul of wrangling over the budget, the chair of a review into Australia’s health and medical research has said.

    Simon McKeon said the fund, which would be paid for by the $7 GP co-payment proposed in Joe Hockey’s May budget, had been embraced by the medical and research community and a “funding peace package” needed to be reached.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/researchers-and-scientists-may-protest-if-20bn-fund-does-not-eventuate?CMP=twt_gu

  49. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    Oh Hockey says the 10% of households that rely on govt funding is a bad thing! Does he think the ideal number is zero?

    That’s “Small Government” for you.

  50. The Silver Bodgie

    Joint sitting happening in Victorian Parliament.

  51. rossmcg

    Waznacki

    As I said earlier by the time the good doctor had finished with the builder he must have wished he had never spoken to police.

    His statement, that he swore was true and had been complied for him by vicpol, was ever so gently torn to shreds.

    Best bit was when she took him through the likely occasions when he said he saw Wilson hand Gillard the money, including one where there is immigration dept evidence that Wilson was out of the country at that time.

    In the end I think he was wishing he could disappear.

    Yet another hapless soul caught up in someone else’s conspiracy theory.

  52. citizen

    Murdoch hacking trial heads to the Jury deliberation stage:

    [
    LONDON — With one of Britain’s most riveting trials — a seven-month courtroom marathon that exposed the inner workings of the tabloid news media and the personal lives of two friends of the prime minister — nearing its conclusion, the judge gave this reminder to the jury: “No one is so powerful they can ignore the law.”

    Among those on trial are Rebekah Brooks, who ran Rupert Murdoch’s British newspaper empire until 2011, and one of her former deputy editors, Andy Coulson, who went on to become the chief spokesman for Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain. While the case centers on allegations of hacking into the mobile phones of people in the news, it has also become a guided tour through the precincts of wealth and power in London.]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/world/europe/after-7-months-british-hacking-trial-heads-to-jury.html?hp&_r=0

  53. dave

    Boerwar@2585

    I had an opportunity to read the AFR this morning over a relaxing latte but chose instead to leaf through it….

    There was one interesting sort of article. It was by a chinese person from a chinese institute of some sort or other. It put the case that the Chinese oil rig is not in Vietnamese waters but, because of its geographic relationship to some Chinese islands is actually in Chinese waters.

    Apart from being the official line, the interesting thing to me was the existence of the article at all.

    Someone may just have noticed that a certain pattern of behaviour has succeeded in alienating just about everyone else.

    Some of the stuff, too much of the stuff China comes out with is right off the reservation – like this from the Saturday Paper quoting bits from the Chinese Global Times

    [ Chinese state oil company placed a giant oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, protected by swarms of coastguard and naval ships.

    After this caused anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam, with the loss of 21 lives, Chinese state-owned news media editorialised against the “unfounded nationalist” reaction by Vietnam, as well as the suit lodged earlier this year by the Philippines over China’s efforts to seize reefs on its side of the South China Sea.

    “The South China Sea disputes should be settled in a peaceful manner, but that doesn’t mean China can’t resort to non-peaceful measures in the face of provocation from Vietnam and the Philippines,” the newspaper Global Times said. “Many people believe that a forced war would convince some countries of China’s sincerely peaceful intentions, but it is also highly likely that China’s strategy would face more uncertainties.”

    While this Orwellian doublespeak (“War is Peace”) is almost self-parody, the ongoing disputes are being taken very seriously in Washington. There, for example, two strategic analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations, Elizabeth Economy and Michael Levi, have just argued the US needs to show a readiness to take “difficult action” in response, including naval support for Vietnam if negotiation fails.

    Several years of rising Chinese “assertiveness”, which started with hubristic reaction to America’s Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008, has led international relations experts to dust off old texts on “power transitions” between new and status quo powers. One by the Chicago scholar A.F.K. Organski in 1960 could find only a single case of a status quo power amicably stepping aside for a new one: that of Britain conceding leadership to the US, helped by a common language and political culture. In most cases, Organski concluded, “one could almost say that the rise of such a challenger guarantees a major war”. ]

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2014/05/31/chinas-slow-boil-the-pacific/1401458400#.U5gO6Xbm575

  54. zoidlord

    A new movie for Tony Abbott and Christopher Pyne to watch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGXHVlEklgQ

  55. waznaki

    Yeah rossmcg, that was another embarrassing moment.

  56. CTar1

    [I spoke to Robert McClelland]

    Fmd that must have been worth a coffee.

  57. guytaur

    Just saw Hockey speaking at Sydney Institute.

    I now really hope they are foolish enough to call a DD.

    More attacks on welfare and medicare

  58. meher baba

    kezza2@2616. I’m not accusing Gillard of wanting to rake over the past. And you know, if you’ve read my posts over the years, I’m far more of a supporter of Gillard than not.

    But Gillard’s personal reputation is undoubtedly tainted by some of this union corruption stuff. Not just Wilson-Blewiit but also her ties to corrupt people in the HSU leadership.

  59. Fulvio Sammut

    Mr Baba, your choice of the word “ties” is emotive and pejorative.

    In the course of a working day a lawyer necessarily has dealings with some fine people, as well as the dregs of society, criminals and others.

    To compress these contacts into one word, “ties” is indicative of a malign intent or of ignorance.

    I do not take you as a fool.

  60. bemused

    kezza2@2573

    bemused

    Listen up pal. I’m sick of your pathetic assertions of misdandry regarding Rudd.

    What you really have to do, is to ask yourself, if there was a situation in which a grandson was pitched against a granddaughter, who’d you really barrack for?

    You don’t get it do you?

    You conclude yet another of your misandry driven rants with a hypothetical question for me. OK, I will answer it.

    If one of my grandsons was pitted against one of my granddaughters (you don’t specify in what context), I would either back the one with the correct position, or, in the absence of such a position, act as mediator.

    See, quite simple. No gender issues involved. Right and wrong have no gender.

    I hope this helps you. 👿

  61. psyclaw

    Kezza

    The issue was not whether the builder would be paid cash. Such a discussion might well involve the builder as a participant or listener.

    This evidence related to an allegation that a Wilson-Gillard “couple” discussion / decision (Wilson to give Gillard cash to be banked in the cheque account to cover a cheque she would write for the builder) would involve the builder as a listener/ participant.

    An example would be me and my OH sharing with a tradie the way we would organise our personal bank processes prior to paying the tradie.

    As BB says, this just doesn’t happen.

    The builder is claiming that Gillard was so naive that while having a guilty mind about the whole matter (he’s saying she knew the money was bad money) she let him, the builder, (a then stranger to her) know that her partner would give her a brown paper bag of money, she’d bank it, and then write a cheque based on it.

    I can tell you when most people would allow the stranger-tradie to know the source and mechanisms of their payment to him….. never.

  62. ruawake

    Funny how all the builders giving evidence to the Union Witch hunt refer to wads of money.

    Oh Julia paid me by cheque for every invoice I issued, BUT I saw wads I tells ya wads of money being slipped to her in broad daylight in front of dozens of folk.

    I smell coaching.

  63. deblonay

    Well I am still here hale and hearty
    _______________________
    For those kind souls on PB who spoke up for me and worried at my silence today….I have to say I am fine and have survived what Willian called(after cutting out the comment by Psephos) which was an “extreme violation of basic decency’…in Psephos hoping that I might be in Irag and destroyed along with the Islamists…a slender hope I have to say ,as neither Iraq or it’s islamists goons have little chance of seeing me, any time soon

  64. dave

    meher baba@2631

    But Gillard’s personal reputation is undoubtedly tainted by some of this union corruption stuff. Not just Wilson-Blewiit but also her ties to corrupt people in the HSU leadership.

    So the same would apply to abbott with his close association with the corruption in the NSW tories. So according to your metric – *abbott is undoubtedly tainted*

    Also ta for the chuckle re union bosses having such good memories.

    So how does that work for all the tories at ICAC and Royal Commissions having such bad memories and not being able to recall anything.

    Of course you were just making it all up…as usual.

    Remember –

    [ “The difference between fiction and reality? Fiction has to make sense.”
    ― Tom Clancy ]

  65. deblonay

    Re Iraq
    ——-
    today’s media,notably Al-Jezerra ,have summed up the huge disaster that that capture of Mosul is for the Iraq government
    The pro=El Quida extremists now have the 2nd city of Iraq,, of nearly 2 million people..with all it’s facilities and the wealth of an oil region in their grip

    As well their allies already hold two major towns Falluja and Ramadi…and the Iraq army seems to have collapsed and \
    retreated from the north
    Along with disintegration of ,Libya it seem proof of the faialure of western policies in the larger M East…perhaps Washington yearns for the certainties of the good old days of Gadaffi and Hussein ?

  66. waznaki

    There’s so far been no evidence or proof of anything. There’s been lots of flimsy recollections which are hanging by a thin thread of credibility. Kernohan added nothing to the proceedings other than his own twisted and tortured 20 years of gloom. The only thing is if the bank account was set up fraudulently and then operated fraudulently. It would appear since the house was in Blewitt’s name, he is most at fault, as Handscombe alluded to yesterday given the proceeds of a sale would end with the person whose name is on the deed.

  67. poroti

    deblonay

    The guys that did over Mosul are part of the same mob that got shed loads of support from “The West” in Syria .

    Another blow back, own goal. Or maybe just what was wanted in the first place.

  68. mikehilliard

    Could some one remind me what the purpose of the Trade Union RC is. I am confused as the cost of the RC seems likely to be significantly more than JG’s verandah posts or whatever.

  69. ruawake

    Why don’t we leave the Sunni and Shia and Kurds to sort out their own problems and borders? Oh sorry I forgot – OIL.

  70. dave

    Anyone know if Wilson is up first thing tomorrow or later in the day?

  71. bemused

    dave@2643

    Anyone know if Wilson is up first thing tomorrow or later in the day?

    The intention is he will be first up.

  72. deblonay

    Poroti
    own goal is a good phrase to explain the situation for the US,et al

    The extremists in Mosul are seen as to extreme for even El Quida…what a black compliment of a reverse kind

    I see no signs that John Howard or Blair or Bush ..the whole neo-con gang or the US… have any comment nor any suggestions of what to do now

    Oddly Hussein.. for all his many sins,…was a secularist and prior to 1980 and the war with Iran,ran a prosperous and economically advanced state …now mostly in ruins and in daily turmoil

  73. ruawake

    [Anyone know if Wilson is up first thing tomorrow or later in the day?]

    I assume he will be first up, the RC adjourned early as they had no “minor” witness to slip in and did not want to break after 30 mins.

  74. dave

    Bemused – Ta.

  75. Jackol

    There were a bunch of revelations about organized crime links to union activity a few months ago.

    They were serious allegations – nothing to do with Gillard or Shorten – and they probably did warrant a RC because there was the implication that the police were unwilling or unable to investigate the matters properly.

    But of course the RC as constituted is as much about ‘getting’ Gillard and Shorten as they are properly exposing criminal activity.

    I think the worry for the ALP is the conflation of this 20 year old AWU nonsense with some of the current recent organized crime links to the construction industry. And, of course, the ALP is always vulnerable to being tarred with bad behaviour on the part of any unionist anywhere.

    The 20 year old AWU nonsense will probably not go anywhere and is probably a waste of time and money for the RC to humour, but maybe it’s good to get it all on record and considered and (with any luck) dismissed as of no importance.

    I’m assuming the more recent allegations will be covered down the track. If there are any links between organized crime and the construction industry then we need to expose them and stamp them out.

  76. dave

    Ru – Ta two.

  77. poroti

    deblonay

    Before the invasion Iraqi women had 1 year of PPL . Now it be buqas all round.

  78. Corio

    Is the bloke’s surname “Kernohan” or “Kernahan”? It seems to alternate here.

  79. dave

    Ru – Ta.

  80. deblonay

    A German site remarks on Iraq that only the Syrian Govt forces can cut trhe supply lines of the El-Quida like extremists in Mosul and the north,who are on aroll

    Yet the US has aided the rebels in Syria against the Assad Govt… whose help they may now need desperately if they are to save the Iraq Govt’s position

    what tangled web the US has created the
    see below

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/

  81. zoidlord

    Is this another broken promise?

    Getting the AUD dollar lower? It’s reaching 94 to US.

  82. psyclaw

    Coriolanus

    Just google Kernohan, if it’s an important issue to you.

    As for myself and I suspect others here, we know we’re talking about the bloke who has been feeding Mike Smiff crap about Ms Gillard for years, and who shat in his own evidentiary nest at the RC today.

  83. ruawake

    From listening to Mike Smith’s audio rants (I know), it seems he is supporting Marco Bolano’s presence at the RC.

    Plus Robert Kernohan asked if he (Smith) could arrange a train for him to get to safety with Smith.

  84. ruawake

    Oh and Smith was busy trying to stop Kernohan doing an interview with the ABC.

  85. psyclaw

    Corio

    Apologies.

    I’m on Safari and am having trouble turning auto correct off. It changes Corio to Coiolanus unless you’re on the ball manually correcting.

    Once more I’ll try to fix it.

    And I’ll check up on who or what Coriolanus is.

    🙂

  86. confessions

    [And I’ll check up on who or what Coriolanus is.]

    Who: a Roman Empire era bloke

    What: Shakespeare play of the man

  87. fredex

    According to ABC TV National News in SA, Tony Abbott was able to “squeeze in” a meeting with Rupert Murdoch. There was vision of Tony walking into a building.
    Tony was lucky he had a spare two and a half hours to fit into his busy schedule wasn’t he?

    SBS had a slightly different slant:
    [He apparently has no time to meet the world’s top bankers, but Tony Abbott made space in his busy international schedule for Rupert Murdoch.

    The prime minister ruffled feathers on his US trip amid reports he’d cancelled long-planned meetings with US treasury secretary Jack Lew, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde and World Bank president Jim Yong Kim.

    But he did not squander an opportunity for a private dinner with the News Corp media mogul, popping into Murdoch’s Central Park apartment in New York on Tuesday (local time), accompanied by his chief-of-staff Peta Credlin.]

  88. psyclaw

    Corio

    Turned off the auto correct.

    Coriolanus is a Shakespearean tragedy about a legendary Roman General of the same name.

    Fran and others would have known, of course.

  89. psyclaw

    Confessions

    You are hereby included in my #2662 which now reads “Fran and Confessions and others …….”

  90. confessions

    briefly:

    http://www.environment.gov.au/minister/birmingham/2014/mr20140610.html

    🙂

    I’m assuming it’ll be the Perth radar given it now goes down to 64km radius.

  91. mikehilliard

    [“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]

    Really, is there some trickery in Hockey’s statement here?

  92. confessions

    Psyclaw:

    Blame Year 12 English Lit.

  93. Dee

    Mike

    Hockey seeks to mine the worst in human nature.

  94. zoidlord

    So does Hockey want to increase the taxes on the wages?

  95. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Joe – your an arsewipe.

  96. fredex

    From Joe:
    [The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]

    Working for about 5 years just to support Joe Hockey.

    How many years to support Gina? Or Rupert?

  97. Henry

    So Hockey thinks we are all working 13 months per year to pay for the dole bludgers?
    If welfare was $0, I wouldn’t work any more or less.
    What a fool he is.

  98. confessions

    mikeh:

    It’s a truism the Tories are trotting out more and more these days. Yes taxpayers’ taxes go towards the support of those who need it, just as those same taxpayers would be able to access the same support should they be in the same situation and meet the relevant eligibility criteria.

    I wish we could get away from this inherent me, me, me selfishness that seems to be pervading our society.

  99. Jackol

    One month out of 12 is 1/12 ~8%

    I’m guessing it’s probably the right ballpark, but so what? Whatever the right number is is just going to be an expression of the proportion of tax coming from income and going to welfare, and we know that welfare is the majority of the Fed government budget.

    Hockey is just fishing around for a way of making it sound overly significant – the equivalent of picking “Sydney harbours” or “Olympic sized swimming pools” or “MCG” equivalents.

    It’s just another bit of spin along the lines of all the absolute numbers that sound big but don’t tell the story about increased population or CPI or GDP or other context.

  100. B.C.

    And we’re working to pay Hockey’s salary. What off it.

    That “other Australian” would include those on the aged pension, our veterans and those too disabled to work.

  101. confessions

    Pyne has made similar remarks about taxpayers ‘funding’ people to get university degrees.

    Pyne needs to be reminded that once qualified, those people invariably occupy the middle to high end of the income earners, and therefore (theoretically) give returns back to the taxpayer through the tax system.

  102. mikehilliard

    All – I agree, another call from Hockey with no detail. Would only appeal to those who see all tax dollars as wasted.

  103. sprocket_

    vote to expel Shaw tied at 42 all

    Speake Ken Smith to make the call

  104. sprocket_

    actually, Speaker Fyffe has voted with the status quo (as she should)

    so Shaw lives on

  105. Dee

    The Coalition don’t do ‘society’.

    Their discussions centre around what dollar value or burden you represent.

  106. poroti

    Dee

    [The Coalition don’t do ‘society’.]
    Well of course as the Tory’s first choice BDSM lady , Maggie T , said.

    [They’re casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families.]

  107. mikehilliard

    Dee

    [The Coalition don’t do ‘society’.]

    They don’t do much at all.

  108. Everything

    [psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 7:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Corio

    Apologies.

    I’m on Safari ]

    Awesome!

    Kruger? I love Kruger…..

  109. Everything

    YIKES!

    US Republican Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, defeated in his Primary against a Tea Partyer.

    Could this safe House seat fall to the Democrats (nah…..probably not). Still……YIKES!

  110. mikehilliard

    Somethings got up Bernard’s nose.

    [Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
    I don’t mind hypocrisy in politics – it’s a necessary part of it. But when it becomes blatant, incessant bullshitting, it begins to reek.]

  111. zoidlord

    EU going to investigate Apple, Star Starbucks, Fiat tax “arrangements”:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27788238

    “Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said: “In the current context of tight public budgets, it is particularly important that large multinationals pay their fair share of taxes.””

    “Countries in Europe cannot allow certain firms to pay less tax than they should, Mr Almunia added.”

    How about we take a queue from EU?

    Oh that’s right, Coalition Party are in bed with these companies.

  112. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 2m

    Mr Abbott & Mr Hockey are still trash talking the economy: It could come back to bite them. They need to get real http://thekouk.com/blog/will-abbott-s-economic-negativity-become-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy.html#.U5gz7ca26f0

  113. Boerwar

    [mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Dee

    The Coalition don’t do ‘society’.

    They don’t do much at all.]

    They are doing Australia over.

  114. Boerwar

    I have just heard that in some Lawn Bowls clubs the little white ball used to be called ‘the nigger’.

    Can anyone confirm, pls?

  115. Boerwar

    I was chatting with someone about Nineveh and Mosul and he burst forth with Kipling’s ‘Recessional’.

    Nineveh (now Mosul) got a guernsey in Kipling’s ‘Recessional’ which he composed for Queen Victoria’s Diamnond Jubilee.

    For the irony-concious, there is much about which to mull.

    It did raise a question for me: is this poem the source of the phrase ‘Lest we forget’ or, as I suspect, is there a much older etymology?

    ‘God of our fathers, known of old—
    Lord of our far-flung battle line—
    Beneath whose awful hand we hold
    Dominion over palm and pine—
    Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
    Lest we forget—lest we forget!

    The tumult and the shouting dies—
    The Captains and the Kings depart—
    Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
    An humble and a contrite heart.
    Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
    Lest we forget—lest we forget!

    Far-called our navies melt away—
    On dune and headland sinks the fire—
    Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
    Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
    Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
    Lest we forget—lest we forget!

    If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
    Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe—
    Such boastings as the Gentiles use,
    Or lesser breeds without the Law—
    Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
    Lest we forget—lest we forget!

    For heathen heart that puts her trust
    In reeking tube and iron shard—
    All valiant dust that builds on dust,
    And guarding calls not Thee to guard.
    For frantic boast and foolish word,
    Thy Mercy on Thy People, Lord!
    Amen.’

  116. Atticus

    [US Republican Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, defeated in his Primary against a Tea Partyer.
    Could this safe House seat fall to the Democrats (nah…..probably not).]

    Joe Lieberman in 2006 was defeated by progressive challenger, Ned Lamont, for the Connecticut Democratic Party Senate nomination, but then won re-election as an independent when the Republican campaign lay doggo. He caucused with Democratic Party Senators, but supported McCain (who would’ve liked Joe for his Veep running mate, but was persuaded to choose a “fresh” politician instead).

    IMO, Cantor does not seem likely to attempt a Lieberman because there’s bound to be a Senate seat or the Governor’s mansion on the horizon to reward his loyalty.

  117. geoffrey

    deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 6:53 pm | PERMALINK
    Well I am still here hale and hearty
    _______________________
    For those kind souls on PB who spoke up for me and worried at my silence today….I have to say I am fine and have survived what Willian called(after cutting out the comment by Psephos) which was an “extreme violation of basic decency’…in Psephos hoping that I might be in Irag and destroyed along with the Islamists…a slender hope I have to say ,as neither Iraq or it’s islamists goons have little chance of seeing me, any time soon

    —–and here’s a big hurray to comrade putin and all his help in middle east peace esp to allowing no fly zones to enable non islamist opposition to assad – now the flow on effect of renewed militarised islamism in syria is seen in iraq. just when peace had been achieved. of course in this instance obama should be chided to lesser extent – he really should have toughened it out on russia over syria. but hey that violates the russian republic on PB

  118. Boerwar

    g

    What would Putin know about any “extreme violation of basic decency”?

    You are nothing but a capitalist roader.

  119. Mad Dog

    BW in bowls they call it the jack, and just sometimes , the jigger. I have never heard ‘nigger’ in such a context.

  120. Boerwar

    Cantor knocked off by extremists to the right of him?

  121. Boerwar

    MD

    Thanks.

    I had heard ‘jack’.

    Hmmmm…. is ‘jigger’ a coy word for ‘nigger’ or has my acquaintance mistaken ‘nigger’ for ‘jigger’?

    If anyone else has anything on the topic, I would be pleased to know about it.

  122. Fulvio Sammut

    I’ll be jiggered.

    Well, that’s another avenue of anti racist diatribe denied you, Boerwar.

  123. Boerwar

    ‘jigger’ for ‘jack’ does not appear here:

    https://www.wordnik.com/words/jigger

  124. Atticus

    Boerwar,
    The Tea Party backed college economics prof. with a tiny budget was able to wedge Cantor’s minimalist immigration reform support.

  125. Fulvio Sammut

    Maybe it’s just your mate who’s the racist, Boerwar?

  126. zoidlord

    Now he admits:

    Retweeted by sortius
    Mr Onthemoon ‏@firstdogonmoon 16m

    “we can’t promise equality” Joe Hockey 2014 If Bits Sniptoff can’t get any traction with that, he should give up. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/hockey-dismisses-budget-critics

  127. Martin B

    [ Cantor does not seem likely to attempt a Lieberman]

    Can’t happen anyway. Virginia has a ‘sore loser’ law meaning defeated primary candidates can’t appear on the final ballot.

  128. psyclaw

    Mod Lib

    iI’s very hot and humid here in the jungle …… and many wild animals.

    Haven’t seen any unicorns yet though.

  129. Fulvio Sammut

    All Mod Lib’s unicorns are tame, and appear in the position he points to on demand.

  130. J341983

    Cantor lost not because of immigration (the cheap seats view will say that..), but because he fundamentally lost touch with his district (which frankly he was NEVER a good fit for).

    It’s a +10R district, so my expectations are that the Dems will throw EVERYTHING at this one, they’ve got buckley’s of picking up House seats… I doubt the Dems can win it, but it’s plausible they bring the GOPer down to 52-3%-ish … Cantor got 58% in 2012. If they kind of Murdock/Akin-level brain-snap, they could win it.

  131. Mad Dog

    At Greenlees Park in Concord, our instructor in barefoot bowls called it the jigger. Obviously he was just a one off!

  132. Diogenes

    Did you people know that printers leave tiny traces on paper which allow you to determine the serial number of the printer and a timestamp?

    Don’t ever print out something and send it unless you are prepared for it to be traced back to you.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printer_steganography

  133. Atticus

    Martin B,
    Thanks for that info on Virginia nix of Cantor running in November. Great law for the Tea Party supporters and perhaps would assist Dem. candidates in districts which are marginals.

  134. Boerwar

    [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    Maybe it’s just your mate who’s the racist, Boerwar?]

    I doubt it.

    He was fundamental to the research that established academic credibility of the stolen generations, has been involved in numerous court cases as an expert witness on matters relating to Indigenous history, and was a significant player in establishing Link UP, the first of the Indigenous organisations devoted to linking stolen kids to their parents and their country.

    It was a relayed story about an Aborigine (well-known, name supplied – and no particular reason to doubt that he might be bullshitting) who joined a Lawn Bowls club. He noticed that the other players were using the term ‘nigger’ for the jack.

    At the end of the first day he bounced the jack in his hand and asked his team mates what it was called.

    They all said, ‘jack’.

  135. Tom the first and best

    2706

    It would be pretty hard to trace a printer bought second hand for cash, especially if it was sold somewhere without CCTV, unless those trying to trace it found out the printer you had was the printer they were looking for.

  136. Bushfire Bill

    Spot the DifferenceDept…

    Contrast The Age’s front page headline:

    [Bill Shorten threatened union man, inquiry told]

    with the actual headline inside:

    [Bill Shorten warned union official against blowing whistle: inquiry told]

    and with the actual testimony today:

    [“He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KVpEwpY ]

    Garbage journalism.

  137. Fulvio Sammut

    Why would you print something with an identity and time mark on it if you wanted to remain anonymous?

    Or do you mean having flyers etc printed by a commercial publisher?

    By the way, I’m competing for this year’s Fran Barlow Prize for pedantry …

  138. zoidlord

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/hockey-dismisses-budget-critics

    Can Hockey say anything more stupid?

    I say the budget is severely hurting them, and they are denying it.

    “Governments should only help citizens to life’s “starting line” and could never promise “equality in outcomes”, treasurer Joe Hockey has said, dismissing claims the federal budget is “unfair” as misguided “old-style socialism”.

    And yet….

    “The charge that the budget is unfair has come from many quarters, including Hewson, who argued on Wednesday that it was characterised by “obvious inequity”. The Australian Council of Social Security found that more than $19bn of the $37bn in budget savings came from reductions in spending on programs theat mainly assist low and middle income earners and only $5.7 billion came from tax increases or savings in programs mainly benefiting people on high incomes.”

    So Hockey wants to give high paying people a free ride on Welfare, but those who have no job or little money, no welfare, and call it class warfare, old style “socialism”.

    This is from the same guys, who are rolling out Fraudband? and continuing to rollout Roads…

  139. Kevin Bonham

    Following this week’s Essential my 2PP aggregate has gone to 54.1. This is not its highest value for the term, but will be the highest end-of-week value if no more polls come out by Friday; it will also in that case be the starting value for next week.

    For those interested in even the most obscure electoral matters I have recently delivered a 30-page independent report into the impacts of ballot paper damage in the division of Denison at this year’s Tasmanian state election. I have some summary content which draws comparisons with the WA Senate situation here:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/denison-ballot-papers-damage-report.html

    and that piece includes links to my report.

    Working title of article being written at the moment: “Turnbull PM: Not Likely Any Time Soon”

  140. Boerwar

    Mad Dog

    I have tracked ‘jigger’ though Google and cannot find it applying to the jack.

    It might had been a one-off, as you say.

  141. Atticus

    Cantor got 58% in 2012. If they kind of Murdock/Akin-level brain-snap, they could win it.

    Well, whatever the margin in 2012 when Obama’s re-election ground crew was getting out the voters to polls, it will be a tougher task for the Democratic candidate (a sociology prof from same small college as the Repub. candidate, bizarrely) this election.

  142. Fulvio Sammut

    Are you sure they didn’t actually say in respect of the bouncing hand motion, “jack off”?

    Lighten up, man!

  143. Boerwar

    KB

    I hasten to asset that it was not the Informal Party that sabotagued the letter-opening machine.

  144. Boerwar

    FS

    I did have an interesting time tracking ‘jack’ as well,and did indeed find your particular usage.

    As for ‘lightening up’, I suggest you look in the mirror and consider your three responses to the topic.

  145. BK

    [“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”

    Really, is there some trickery in Hockey’s statement here?]
    He seems to assume that income tax is the only source of government revenue.

  146. Fulvio Sammut

    Lately Boerwar, you’ve become more and more like a movement looking for a cause.

  147. Atticus

    Always a pleasure to take the opportunity to thank BK for Dawn Patrol links and sagacious witticisms.

  148. matt31

    It’s certainly been a quiet week on the poll front! Next week should bring Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, and surely we must nearly be due a Reachtel?

  149. Boerwar

    Hockey is pursuing the meme of all government expenditure representing ‘other people’s money’.

    He might have considered the following:

    How many days a year do people work in order to pay for the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and for purchase of klutzfighters.

    (The war in Vietnam is costing us, at a minimun, 32,000 times a disability pension per year, for example.)

    Hockey is basically saying there is no virtue in supporting a society.

    There is only virtue in getting out of the way of greed-is-good spivs.

  150. Henry

    Used to enjoy the occasional bevvie at Greenlees Mad Dog.
    $2 schooners back in the day.
    You could get pissed for $10.

  151. Henry

    That was only at happy hour on a tuesday i might add.

  152. Atticus

    Adding to BK’s comment,
    One assumes that a great majority of folks receiving “welfare” either have spent decades paying taxes for others previously or will be paying income taxes for decades in future employment.

  153. zoomster

    [“He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement.]

    Ah, that would be the safe Labor seat of Melton that Bill Shorten gained preselection for — right about this time.

    I think the seeds of Mr Kernohan’s grudge against Shorten might lie there…

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KZF5yzl

  154. Boerwar

    FS

    I have been fighting against racism for forty-five years.

    We (as in Australians) have made some excellent progress in that time – progress we can all be proud of – but there is a bit to go.

    Naturally there is discomfort, hostility and outright aggresion in response from time-to-time, but if we all work together on it we will get there in the end.

  155. victoria

    Boerwar

    How much of other people’s money is paying for Hockey and his cronies to stuff up fhe country?
    And how much of other people’s money is going to pay for his generous pension and superannuation entitlements when he is finished stuffing up the country

  156. Kevin Bonham

    matt31@2722

    It’s certainly been a quiet week on the poll front! Next week should bring Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, and surely we must nearly be due a Reachtel?

    Last ReachTEL was conducted on Thursday 8 May and released the day after so if the monthly schedule is being adhered to I’d expect another within days.

    The second-last ever Nielsen shouldn’t be far away either.

  157. Fulvio Sammut

    Well, I’m 64, and I’ve been up against it since I arrive in this country at the age of three and a bit, and most viciously from sadistic bitches in nuns’ uniforms at the age of four and five.

    But there are enough real battles out there to be fought against bigots and racists without taking up arms against thoughtless geriatrics over what they call a small white ball.

    I don’t doubt your sincerity and I admire your consistency and courage, but sometimes I think we need to more carefully chose our battlelines.

  158. bemused

    zoomster@2727


    “He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement.


    Ah, that would be the safe Labor seat of Melton that Bill Shorten gained preselection for — right about this time.

    I think the seeds of Mr Kernohan’s grudge against Shorten might lie there…

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KZF5yzl

    I am rather disconcerted that people can be ‘lined up’ for safe Labor seats without a pre-selection process having taken place.

    This is one of the things wrong with the Labor party and it looks like we dodged a bullet in Kernohan not ending up with that pre-selection.

  159. Boerwar

    [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Well, I’m 64, and I’ve been up against it since I arrive in this country at the age of three and a bit, and most viciously from sadistic bitches in nuns’ uniforms at the age of four and five.

    But there are enough real battles out there to be fought against bigots and racists without taking up arms against thoughtless geriatrics over what they call a small white ball.

    I don’t doubt your sincerity and I admire your consistency and courage, but sometimes I think we need to more carefully chose our battlelines.]

    Thanks for that. I’ll keep plugging away at the racism stuff. I’ll also keep plugging away at my other hobby horses: fighting The Rapacity, and fighting against bad wars. IMHO, we all just have to do our small bit when and where we can.

  160. Boerwar

    b @ 2732
    Yep.

  161. Boerwar

    [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    How much of other people’s money is paying for Hockey and his cronies to stuff up fhe country?
    And how much of other people’s money is going to pay for his generous pension and superannuation entitlements when he is finished stuffing up the country]

    That is different.

  162. Boerwar

    Time for bed. Good night all.

  163. victoria

    Night boerwar

  164. Rossmore

    Gawd just seen Hockey at the Sydney Institute on Lateline.

    Lecturing the poor and middle income people on their obligation to help balance the budget. Sheer. Bloody. Hypocrisy.

  165. deblonay

    Iraq on the boil___
    ____________
    A former Iraqi PM said from Singapore tonight that the only way of defeating the El-Queida like ISIS movenment now,after the capture of most of the niokrth,including Mosul, is by outside intervention …possibly from the US or Turkey….well that seems unlikely given Obama position on such troop[ moves…so what has all the intervention achieved

    Will the Iraqis have the gall to ask Abbott for help…after all Howard did send troops…..but I guess that that would arouse enormous oppossition here now…despite the real threat to the Iraqi regime

    The war was unpopular when Howard sent troops…now it be impossible

  166. zoidlord

    On same night Hockey dumps on equity & equality, US Tsy Sec Lew says income inequality in US is “ultimate test” http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-usa-economy-jacklew-idUSKBN0EM17X20140611?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 5m

    Imagine Hockey saying: The ultimate test for all of us will be how inclusive tomorrow’s economy becomes & how widely our economic gains flow

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m

    Imagine Hockey saying: “The crisis we face today is need to make sure the economy is expanding fast enough to support a growing middle class

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m

    The US Treasury Lew was responsible for those last two quotes.

  167. lefty e

    One of the better articlesIve read in months: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/09/french-public-debt-audit-illegitimate-working-class-internationalim

    Basically argues that debt has been growing without state expenditure rising:itsall about tax cuts, the state paying higher interest to (increasongly unknown) external creditors: both of which were simply political choices.

    Debt that “grew in the service of private interests, and not the wellbeing of the people” is illegitmate, and should be treated as such (indeed,is,by small number of states). Austerity is its intended product – and its been deliberately inflated.

    Calls for debt audits, and disclosure of creditors.

    Bring it on.

  168. Laocoon

    mikehilliard @ 2665

    [“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”

    Really, is there some trickery in Hockey’s statement here?]

    So “over” 8.3% of full time work

    So 35(+) minutes per day for a 35 hour week?

    And more efficient than the 10% Church tithe…

  169. FarQU

    [“The publicly funded health system must be sustainable.

    “By introducing a co-payment for Medicare we are able to build a $20 billion Medical Research Future Fund that in the next decade will double medical research funding in Australia.

    “This is fair.”]

    A 20 Billion dollar research fund is going to make medicare sustainable?

    It’s not a question of fair or unfair, Joe, it’s a question of stupidity.

  170. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius 11m

    .@littlesteve @mansillo it’s becoming clear this budget is designed to essentially kill off low income earners/unemployed

  171. Thomas. Paine.

    Hokey is an interesting case study of somebody growing into a deluded world of self-importance.

    You can see the transformation…manicured hair for image, pin stripe suits, cigars, pompous, bombastic, arrogant and thoroughly out of touch with reality.

    He really is like one of those banksters depicted in Yes Minister.

    I can imagine he is conned along by his corporate mates who must meet and ring him all the time to pat him on the back, and play to his self importance, make him feel ‘one of them’, all the while laughing at the ease in which he is made a useful fool.

    Hokey is become just about everything the general public despise and only saved by the remnance of the old jovial joe image of times past.

    Abbott is increasingly disliked, and I can will be seen as a lying, ignorant, thick-head thug.

    But Hokey, he wont just be disliked, he will in the end be despised. He is developing the persona that whilst funny in comedy tv, in real life is considered disgusting.

    The guy has the air of looking down on everybody and everything, that he is not there for the democracy that elected him, but to pursue his own ends – self-importance is all that he appears to be interested in, and to maintain the delusion he needs to cater to those who play his ego in the corporate world.

    Of course it will end badly for Hokey. His corporate mates will leave him like a rag dole on the side of the road once his useful idiot status is gone.

    The persona he has built for himself should be a gift from god to cartoonists. They should get to work, he is an easy subject.

    AND like true fool that he has become, his need to pander to his self importance is so great that he doesn’t even realise he should right now STFU and let Abbott destroy himself…so he might be popular enough to replace him.

  172. victoria

    Video of Harry Waxman congressman interviewed by SFerguson on 7.30 re climafe change policy

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/waxman-on-abbotts-climate-stance-ahead-of-obama-meeting/5515702

    Night all

  173. liyana

    I have been trying to get my head around the Abbott- climate change bloc speech in Canad-ia, all day.. But I can’t see any sense in it at all.

    If China and the US sign up for Carbon pricing, then surely an anti carbon pricing stance will risk Australia becoming a pariah, and then inevitably there will be penalties and perhaps boycotts on our products?

    How on earth can Abbott be so reckless? Hasn’t he considered these points? Is he really so beholden to big coal?

    There is no need to espouse a belief in climate change to recognise the possible economic benefits of renewable energy and the possibilities of penalties if you defy the way the US and China are going…Incomprehensible…

  174. FarQU

    [“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]

    The average cleaner earns about $36,000 pa, $3,000 per month and pays about $300 per month tax.

    The one at my work earns less than that. I’m not sure whether Jo thinks these people earn too much and need to have their incomes cut.

  175. deblonay

    For those interested in Cantor defeat in Primary ballot
    He rode the Tiger…and was devouried
    +++++++++++

    Cantor is/was no favourite of the US Conservative Mag/site

    His defeat brings a warning for Repubs who flirt with the Tea Party as he seems to have done.earlier…only to be defeated by an even more extreme right-winger in the primary

    They say he “rode the Tea Party Tiger…which devoured him in the end ”
    Far from being a “moderate”: Repub(whatever that may look like,he was linked to peoploe like Sheldon Adelson who runs the Repub Jewish Coalition(“The richest jew in the US”as he boasts,and he funds those he likes…who must also love Israel..or no cash)

    Adelson also wants a “lower wage ” structure…in a country where the working poor is already a major reality
    Cantor ran along with this crowd,who finally found an even more extreme candidate than he

    BTW The US Conservative,is an interesting Mag..and tgis article follows much of their anti-Tea Party line
    They think the T-Party is mad,and they object to the way Adelson and his gang have made support for Israel central to US policies in the M.East…and Adelson is bitterly anti-union,allowing none in his many enterprises

    The” Amercon” says the Tea Party nutters will make the Repiubs unelectable,and they are probably right
    The guy that defeated Cantor is even more extreme as they tend to be

    Shed no tears for Cantor however…and do read this critique of hime in The Amercon mag.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/eric-cantor-rides-tiger-is-devoured/
    ____________________________

  176. zoidlord

    @FarQU/2748

    IS that including GST in goods? or excluding GST goods?

  177. briefly

    Hockey claims…

    [The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian.]

    In 2012/13, according to the Treasury budget papers and the ABS, the combined social security and welfare provision was $131.9 billion, including Family Tax Benefits. This was 8.6% of GDP, which totaled $1,525 billion. The wages share of the economy was estimated by the ABS at 53%.

    So while one-eighth of the economy was distributed to welfare of all kinds, just over half of this can be attributed to employee compensation.

    Rather than working one month a year to support each other, Australians notionally work one fortnight each year to support each other. The balance of welfare costs are borne by other parts of the economy, including business profits.

  178. Just Me

    [2744
    zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius 11m

    .@littlesteve @mansillo it’s becoming clear this budget is designed to essentially kill off low income earners/unemployed]

    It’s a cull.

  179. FarQU

    Income tax

  180. FarQU

    So half of it is bullshit from the beginning.

    And if you take away the portion that the average income earner gets back in welfare, we’d be down to something less than a fortnight. 10 or 12 days so that most of us can live in something reasonable. Joe Hockey would destroy that so a few people can get even richer.

  181. Thomas. Paine.

    Joe wants to see tent cities surrounding suburbs..which he will get once the new recession gets under way.

  182. briefly

    grrr..one-twelfth of the economy was distributed as welfare…

  183. kezza2

    Hey, Joe Hockey
    [The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]

    Heard of holiday pay, douchebag?

    The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working one month full time each year just to pay for “their own fucking break”

    GIVE US A BREAK

    FROM YOUR LIES

  184. kezza2

    Sorry bout that. I sorta went all Showsy.

    Then again that could just be a champagne argument.

  185. imacca

    [ Sorry bout that. I sorta went all Showsy. ]

    Don’t think you have anything to apologize for. Trying to get your head around some of the lies and spin JoHo tires to peddle will do that to people.

    Probably better to just assume that if his mouth is moving he’s talking crap that only the blue kool aid addicts will swallow. On his current form you stand a remarkably good chance of being correct.

  186. zoidlord

    Gov going wrong way on Piracy: iiNet

    http://delimiter.com.au/2014/06/11/govt-going-wrong-piracy-path-says-iinet/

    ” suspect most Australians will find it hard to disagree with Dalby that the solution to the Internet piracy issue needs to be a commercial one — not a regulatory one. Pretty much all attempts to regulate the Internet have failed over the past there decades. I am amused and saddened that the attempts keep coming. Many people, it seems, still don’t understand the depth and importance of the technological revolution which Earth is permanently engaged in now.”

    Which is part of the Anti-Technology, Anti-Science, Anti-Socialism, Anti-welfare.

    It’s all about Profitism for this Government.

  187. imacca

    [ Gawd just seen Hockey at the Sydney Institute on Lateline. ]
    You wont do that again in a hurry will you?? 🙂

    [ Lecturing the poor and middle income people on their obligation to help balance the budget. Sheer. Bloody. Hypocrisy. ]

    I think he is following on from his leaders theme on selling the budget. You know the one where Tony told us if we were not so fwarking stupid we would have known that they were going to screw over every body except the rich??

    I can see that working for them really well in the polling stakes.

    [ AND like true fool that he has become, his need to pander to his self importance is so great that he doesn’t even realise he should right now STFU and let Abbott destroy himself…so he might be popular enough to replace him. ]

    Ye Gads! TP posts something i can completely agree with!!

  188. leon

    A jigger is a cue rest used in billiards and snooker. It should not be confused with a thingomajigger which is not used in billiards or snooker.

  189. Otiose

    Nett_News++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 @rupertmurdoch tells #abbott “Just Do it”, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1jkvzM2

  190. B.C.

    The other name for the Jack is Kitty. Hence the lawn bowl joke about Kitty and Jack

  191. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Boerwar,
    I have never heard that word used for any sporting equipment in all of my life. In fact I have rarely heard it used at all for anything. I think we had our own homegrown racist terms without need for USA ones, to be honest about it. I vaguely recall some old product labels and of course those rag dolls called gollywogs. I think the lolly cigerettes we bought as kids, the licorice ones, not the sugar ones, had a gollywog on the label. Other than that the only time i heard it was on tv in American movies.

  192. absolutetwaddle

    I don’t know what some of you people gain by going out of your way to watch pressers and doorstops by the likes of Joe Hockey.

    “Oh look, there’s Joe Hockey lecturing the poor on how entitled they are again. Oh boy, I do hope he starts talking about dole bludgers and the parasites on the DSP, that would cement even more cholesterol to my dangerously narrowed, stress-damaged arteries! What’s that? Cory Bernardi, Andrew Bolt, Sophie Mirabella, Francisco Franco and Sarah Palin are tonight’s guests on Q&A? SOMEONE PASS THE REMOTE!”

    You’ll be a happier person just reading the headline version, trust me.

  193. sprocket_

    Murdoch organs have gone into peak Abbott government hagiography mode, following Rupert’s pleasure at 2.5 hr arse kissing by our supplicant PM in NY.

    Abbott’s Uni pal and fellow Bob Santamaria disciple Greg Sheridan leads the way, able to merge the Abbott global triumph with a smack down of Fairfax and the ABC

    http://t.co/mHjmUmDiJ4

  194. Phil Vee

    File under the heading of useless information;
    When I was taught how to play golf in the early Seventies, my Scottish instructor gave me a club called a jigger. It was between a putter and a 1 iron to be used when your ball was on the edge of green. I remember using it a lot.

    Thanks to briefly for his concise demolition of Hockey’s nonsense .

  195. Boerwar

    For the Wesst, the preferred solution to hold Iraq together is a dictator with a vicious nasty streak who hates islamists.

    But they are a bit scarcer than they used to be.

  196. CTar1

    Tikrit taken.

    It’s all rosey after the democratic election in Iraq.

  197. Diogenes

    34 Essendon players issued with infraction notices.

    Ouch.

    This is going to take years.