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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 12, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

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Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2198 comments

2,198 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

  1. sprocket_

    Murdoch organs have gone into peak Abbott government hagiography mode, following Rupert’s pleasure at 2.5 hr arse kissing by our supplicant PM in NY.

    Abbott’s Uni pal and fellow Bob Santamaria disciple Greg Sheridan leads the way, able to merge the Abbott global triumph with a smack down of Fairfax and the ABC

    http://t.co/mHjmUmDiJ4

  2. sprocket_

    What really happened in Murdoch’s NY penthouse? David Pope has an insight (apologies BK for stealing your thunder, but this cartoon is a cracker)

    http://t.co/0jI4OJVXDD

  3. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    An increasingly shrill and pugnacious Hockey is still in full budget ideology defence mode.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/calling-budget-unfair-is-like-class-warfare-says-joe-hockey-20140611-39xsd.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/hockey-dismisses-budget-critics
    And Abbott is in CC action blocking mode as he heads to see Obama.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-change-a-coolant-for-tony-abbotts-meeting-with-barack-obama-20140611-39xrq.html
    Wow! This proposal of Baird’s will really sweeten the hip pocket!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-mike-bairds-price-guarantee-will-save-nsw-families-as-little-as-9-a-year-20140611-zs3xw.html
    Fairfax has an article by the loathsome Peter Coleman defending Gerard Henderson. I have neither reviewed nor linked it.

    An excellent and heartfelt contribution from Peter FitzSimons on sport, betting and religion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/fifa-world-cup-2014/world-cup-news-2014/jesus-can-you-credit-the-fury-over-that-christ-balloon-20140611-zs4ai.html
    Nothing to worry about here, is there Tone?
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-to-almost-triple-risk-of-extreme-indian-ocean-weather-events-20140611-zs43n.html
    As media ownership laws are under threat Abbott and his ubiquitous attachment dine with Murdoch for a pep talk.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-to-almost-triple-risk-of-extreme-indian-ocean-weather-events-20140611-zs43n.html
    This is ALL we need! Abbott wants US style corporate schools. Perhaps the students could bring guns into class.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-considers-importing-usstyle-school-program-with-private-industry-involvement-20140612-39y5y.html
    The hapless, hopeless (Deputy PM!!!! FFS) Warren Truss has got his work cut out supporting the budget line and keeping his small party base happy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-leader-warren-truss-admits-ppl-details-not-final-20140611-39x0l.html
    The Lowy Institute posits that Abbott’s intransigence on climate change action could harm the G20’s reputation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/stopping-climate-change-talks-could-hurt-g20-says-lowy-institutes-hugh-jorgensen-20140611-39xru.html

  4. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    Bob Ellis examines Joe Hockey’s “fair go” using a shocking example.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/06/12/joes-fair-go/
    From yesterday’s child abuse Royal Commission hearing.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/royal-commission-into-child-sex-abuse-a-moment-of-truth-for-this-nation
    Not a great look from the Brownlow Medallist, Dane Swan.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/magpie-dane-swan-star-guest-at-mick-gatto-restaurant-fundraiser-20140611-39xwi.html
    Well what a surprise! we all knew this could happen.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/paid-parental-leave-scheme-could-be-rorted-by-small-businesses-tax-expert
    The Salvos hit back at the independence of Morriscum’s report into the Manus Island death.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/salvos-attack-canberra-over-manus-island-report-20140611-39xr9.html
    And a G4S whistleblower contradicts the company’s account of what happened.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/whistleblower-contradicts-g4s-account-of-night-of-fatal-violence-at-manus
    This is disgusting, cynical withdrawal of funds from Ethical Clothing Australia. Anything to push hourly labour costs down and down and down is fair game to this mob!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-funding-cut-hits-ethical-clothing-australias-fight-against-fashion-sweatshops-20140611-zs4ay.html
    Elizabeth Farelly uses Australia Post as an example in this article on the government’s relentless push for privatisation and cost shifting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-post-lets-keep-letter-delivery–and-posties-20140611-zs3sk.html
    Australia is wrong to not describe parts of Palestine as “occupied”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/11/australia-wont-describe-east-jerusalem-as-occupied-and-is-wrong-to-do-so
    It seems the euphoria of retailers over Abbott’s electoral victory has soured considerably.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/frightened-consumers-can-only-mean-bad-news-for-retailers-20140611-39xqa.html

  5. BK

    Section 3 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox with Abbott on the world stage.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/06/12/5503098/ac-wilcox-defcon-20140612064837564505-620×0.jpg
    Just have a look at David Pope’s effort with the Abbott/Credlin/Murdoch soiree!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s potential to stuff up in the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe with Murdoch’s fatherly advice to our boy in the US.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  6. lizzie

    [While Stephen Harper was congratulating Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott yesterday for ending a carbon tax, the head of the IMF was in Montreal urging energy powerhouses like Canada to come to grips with the economics of climate change.

    International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde urged economists and central bankers from around the world not to wait for the next round of climate change talks to take action to protect the environment.

    All countries need to put mechanisms in place – whether a carbon tax or a cap and trade system – to pay for the effects of pollution, she said at the conference of the International Economic Forum of the Americas in Montreal. She urged countries not to wait for a new round of talks on global warming, but to start building these costs into their economic systems now.]

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/imf-head-says-world-must-come-to-grips-with-climate-change-costs-1.2670936

  7. poroti

    BK

    [This is ALL we need! Abbott wants US style corporate schools. Perhaps the students could bring guns into class.]

    Just a coincidence after his arse kissathon with Rupes he came out with that. Oh and why did Tones visit Jeb Bush ?Read on

    [Fox in the Schoolhouse: Rupert Murdoch Wants to Teach Your Kids!
    News Corp.’s major move into the education business.

    Murdoch will make an unusual public appearance in San Francisco, delivering the keynote address at an education summit hosted by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush,……..The high-profile speech to a collection of conservative ed reformers, state legislators, and educators is just the latest step in Murdoch’s quiet march into the business of education…..
    When it comes to K through 12 education, we see a $500 billion sector in the US alone that is waiting desperately to be transformed by big breakthroughs that extend the reach of great teaching,” Murdoch said at the time. ]

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/09/rupert-murdoch-news-corp-wireless-generation-education

  8. ausdavo

    That’s a typical LieNP twist by Hockey – “budget criticism is class warfare”. The budget itself is “class warfare” and Hockey obviously can’t take the heat of criticism.

    As far as the better off paying for social security and other benefits of redistribution it’s all a part of “social insurance”. The better off never know when they may require help from the social safety net whether it be expensive medical intervention, unemployment benefits, a reasonable living standard after retirement etc.

    Such insurance is what keeps our economy bubbling along. Removing or reducing it, as Hockey is doing, threatens the very fabric of our society. That is the real “class warfare”.

  9. Socrates

    Morning all. Geoff Shaw will be suspended from parliament for 11 sitting days, while still being paid. Gosh, that will teach him for misusing taxpa
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/geoff-shaw-motion-parliament/5514664

  10. lizzie

    I don’t read the ASustralian, but this is the summary.

    [“Coalition anger as ABC boss hits out”
    THE ABC should concentrate on key services and tackling claims of bias instead of publicly whingeing, angry government members have told managing dir­ector Mark Scott.]

    No need for comment.

  11. Raaraa

    You gotta give some props to Hockey for bringing back the budget backlash into front and centre, where it should be.

  12. lizzie

    Socrates

    I thought at the least he might lose some income while suspended. Sigh.

  13. lizzie

    Shorten:

    [“In the 2013-14 budget the Labor government introduced a comprehensive package to ensure the integrity of our company tax base.”

    “Based on updated estimates from the Parliamentary Budget Office, the revenue gains from Labor’s package are now worth over $5.3 billion.

    “But in a clear demonstration of their priorities the government has not once, but twice acted to water down this package, handing back more than $1.1 billion to big businesses”, he said.

    The forfeited revenue could reverse cuts to concessions for pensioners and seniors card holders, or increase costs of PBS medicines, he said.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/joe_hockey_slams_welfare_state_5hiOIj8lJsPL7F5zEj3gJJ

  14. confessions

    [A special survey by ME Bank of 1500 people nationally found WA, long considered the Liberal Party’s electoral crown jewel, is overwhelmingly negative towards the Budget.

    Almost 70 per cent of WA residents believed they were worse off because of the Budget and a nation-high 78 per cent said it was too harsh on vulnerable people.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24218020/abbott-budget-too-harsh-for-wa/

  15. BK

    And from the Land of the Free –

    Orange Man John Boehner on the skids?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/06/11/house-conservatives-say-buh-bye-boehner/
    A Christian pastor takes Texan Congressman Gohmert to school on the separation of church and state.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/gohmert-uses-congressional-hearing-share
    Welcome to the new Tea Party hopeful who won yesterday’s Republican primary. It’s frightening!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/brat-sought-endorsement-group-believes

  16. lizzie

    [Joan Mouse ‏
    @Zanukah if we can’t trade emissions can we trade leaders?]

  17. Socrates

    Lizzie

    He misses his $386 sitting payment for the 11 days, that is it. He still gets his normal pay. All up he loses about $4k, while still on a base salary of over $150,000 per year.

  18. meher baba

    I reckon that the David Pope cartoon this morning is one of the cleverest I’ve seen in years. 10/10!

    BK: you and others like to ridicule Warren Truss a fair bit. And he is undoubtedly one of the most uncharismatic people ever to go into politics.

    But I watched him on Insiders and felt that the content of what he said was light years ahead of the likes of Abbott, Hockey and Pyne. He had mastered his briefing, spun as much as he felt was reasonable, and was unfailingly polite at all times.

    Contrast that to the others mentioned, who typically aren’t across the facts, consistently ignore the question and are rude and aggressive, and parrot catch phrases which are detached from reality.

    In short, Truss would be a much better PM than any of the leading Libs. IMO.

  19. ausdavo

    It’s quite obvious why he (Shaw) was “suspended”. When the suspension finishes in early September, even if he resigned or was dismissed, it’s too late for a by-election.

    Basically Napthine has let him off with merely a slight “rap on the knuckles”. Just what else is to be expected?

  20. Socrates

    So much for mission accomplished. The Iraqi army simply ran away rather than stop insurgents taking over four cities. The looted weapons are being sent across to Syria.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-12/isis-militants-expand-across-northern-iraq/5517046

    Have a good day all. Agreed, David Pope cartoon is brilliant. Perhaps he could work Joe Hockey into a Mickey Mouse theme, trying to conjure up the budget?

  21. Fran Barlow

    While Hockey’s claim about how long each of us spends working to support those in need of welfare is obviously bogus, like most he says, speaking as one of those teachers, I would be perfectly happy thinking that one month of my wages each year was supporting those in need.

    I’m not nearly so keen for my wages to be supporting weapons of death or destruction of the environment or torturing asylum seekers. I’d like that part stopped straight away.

  22. adrian

    Wasn’t it just a few days since PB’s resident sociopath was reprimanding the PB collective for not being sufficiently grateful for the wonderful progress that had been made in Iraq.

    If it wasn’t so tragic…

  23. lizzie

    [DesHoughton ‏@DesHoughton 23m
    Many in the Press gallery will be embarrassed. @PaulBongiorno pic.twitter.com/PQPOUFHzFv @dwabriz @PSyvret]

    Facsimile of The Australian’s continuing attack on union corruption (Gillard) and Fairfax.

  24. adrian

    Hockey on AM…Is it my imagination or is it wall to wall government ministers lining up for a foot massage from Chris Ulhmann?

    I guess it’s just balancing something or other.

  25. AussieAchmed

    special survey by ME Bank of 1500 people nationally found WA, long considered the Liberal Party’s electoral crown jewel, is overwhelmingly negative towards the Budget.

    Almost 70 per cent of WA residents believed they were worse off because of the Budget and a nation-high 78 per cent said it was too harsh on vulnerable people.

  26. guytaur

    Good Morning

    The pressure is going to be on Clive Palmer come July. I would have liked him to oppose repeal of carbon pricing. However that was never more than hope given the self interest.

    What is more realistic is opposing the budget. We may yet see a DD if the rhetoric of Palmer and Hockey becomes reality.

    If that happens we may have only months before carbon pricing is back.

  27. lizzie

    He can’t face any opposing views, the coward.

    [In his meeting with Mr Ban on Tuesday, Mr Abbott sidestepped accepting an invitation to attend a UN-sponsored international conference on climate policy later this year.

    The summit has been timed to precede the annual UN General Assembly session in September in a bid to maximise the involvement of leaders attending that session.

    However, Fairfax Media understands Mr Abbott has no plans to attend either, despite the session coming towards the end of Australia’s membership of the elite UN Security Council.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-change-a-coolant-for-tony-abbotts-meeting-with-barack-obama-20140611-39xrq.html#ixzz34N7p4dBo

  28. AussieAchmed

    The 3 per cent rise fixes the State minimum wage at $25 a week more than its Federal counterpart – a move the WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry said would disproportionately hit small businesses.

    “With unemployment rising, we need a minimum wage that encourages employment growth,” a spokesman said.

    Is it just me or can anyone else see the stupidity of the comment that by the unnamed spokesman?

    My questions = Why wasn’t employment growth happening before the pay rise?

    When the wage was lower why was unemployment rising?

  29. guytaur

    @ProfPCDoherty: Simplistic slogans & major media bias persuaded people to vote against their own self interest? http://t.co/9cjwKilyJJ via @ConversationEDU

  30. guytaur

    BK

    The university the Tea Party Economics Professor comes from is going to be having an interesting time. His Democratic opponent is also a professor at that university.

  31. victoria

    Morning all

    David Pope is indeed a beauty this morning. It perfectly illustrates the state of play

    Lizzie

    I cant expand the twitter link to the Oz article re the AWU scandal. Can you summarise the content for me, thanks

  32. Steve777

    I saw a tweet from American astrophysicist and science communicator Neil deGrasse Tyson that’s worth repeating:

    “The good thing about science is that it’s true whether or not you believe in it”.

  33. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: #ABCNews24 will have live coverage of the #ACOSSConf2014 from 9am AEST including speeches from @kevinandrewsmp & @billshortenmp #auspol”

  34. victoria

    Heard Chris Ulhman interview JHockey on ABC radio earlier. What a lame interview. Ulhman is indeed a tool for the fibs

  35. lizzie

    victoria

    Too long to summarise for my morning brain.
    Try this and zoom it (I read original small scan 🙂 )

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bp3872SCIAAn6Qj.jpg

  36. victoria

    The big news here in Melbourne is the Vic govt and shaw suspension. The other big news is that AFL footballer Dane Swan attended a function that was attended and organised by “colourful characters”.
    That is what dominated the Age newspaper today

  37. BK

    vic
    Did yo hear Alison Carabine’s interview of Chris Bowen this morning? She tried hard and Bowen delivered.

  38. victoria

    Thanks lizzie

    I was able to expand the article. The poor little Oz are upset that the ABC and fairfax are not interested in reporting the saga, but the Oz will not be distracted.
    You gotta laugh

  39. guytaur

    @latikambourke: Tony Abbott’s gift to President Obama is a custom made Presidential surfboard made in the PM’s home town of Manly: http://t.co/9K2hqs7kKS

    Not bad as such things go. Of course it will be all downhill from there

  40. victoria

    BK

    Unfortunately No. I was listening to spots radio before i switched over and heard the lame Hockey interview

  41. lizzie

    [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 2m
    Tony Abbott’s gift to President Obama is a custom made Presidential surfboard made in the PM’s home town of Manly: http://latika.me/SOhgsl ]

    [TONY Abbott has revealed a secret and unlikely admiration for the world’s most powerful leader, describing Barack Obama as an “extraordinarily gifted man” and a potential friend to rival past… ]

  42. lizzie

    Hockey is trying to bully us into accepting Hockeynomics.
    Shouting and spitting won’t do it, Joe.

  43. victoria

    lizzie

    I would love someone to ask Hockey how much of faxpayers money is required to fund him as treasurer

  44. BK

    lizzie
    Is that the same Obama whose potential victory was described by Abbott’s politcal father John Howard as being a victory for the terrorists?

  45. BK

    Hockey’s defence of the budget is like a production scheduler using infinite capacity planning and just hoping for the best!
    http://www.ehow.com/info_10042077_difference-between-finite-capacity-scheduling-infinite-capacity-loading.html

  46. guytaur

    “@MrCsandDs: Joe Hockey to further explain budget today with the help of stocks, a bucket of old tomatoes & a 19yr old DSP recipient”

  47. guytaur

    @mjrowland68: Stay tuned to @abcnews and @ABCNews24 for full coverage of the @newscorp hacking trial verdict.
    http://t.co/fy8eIq0Kda

  48. Boerwar

    For the West, the preferred solution to hold Iraq together is a dictator with a vicious nasty streak who hates islamists.

    But they are a bit scarcer than they used to be.

  49. sprocket_

    I did hear Alison Carabine’s interview with Greg Hunt.

    Hunt did not answer one question she asked.

  50. Boerwar

    s
    Carabine should learn to ask the right questions.

  51. BK

    sprocket_
    Unwilling and incapable all rolled into one!

  52. lizzie

    BK

    Never let history or logic get in the way of bootlicking.

  53. Bushfire Bill

    [ DesHoughton ‏@DesHoughton 23m
    Many in the Press gallery will be embarrassed. @PaulBongiorno pic.twitter.com/PQPOUFHzFv @dwabriz @PSyvret

    Facsimile of The Australian’s continuing attack on union corruption (Gillard) and Fairfax. ]

    The Australian calls sworn witness statements written by the Victorian Police, organized by Harry Nowicki and signed by internet nut-jobs, petty criminals, jealous, paranoid union officials and 80 year-old builders “assuming” cash they say they saw handed over as being proof of dodgy dealings, “facts”.

    At the same time they call another sworn witness statement from Bruce Wilson “a desperate attempt to muddy the waters”, i.e. to rebut the evidence assembled against him.

    The Australian has used only statements from “their” witnesses – and has used none of the cross-examination or rebuttals – to “prove” there’s no need for a Royal Commission at all. Hedley Thomas has done the Commission’s job for it!

    What a crock!

    Yet I still can’t understand why these people seem to hate Gillard so much. It’s almost visceral. You could cut it with a knife. Every crackpot with an axe to grind has been in contact with Nowicki, Thomas, the Vic Police and now the Royal Commission set up by Tony Abbott to bring the allegations “home”.

    Today’s viewing of Bruce Wilson will be compelling.

  54. psyclaw

    BK

    I agree, Bowen did well

    Sprocket

    I agree. Hunt walked all over Carabine.
    Not a good look for an interviewer to be totally trumped by a wimp of such gargantuan proportions.

  55. BK

    BB
    Unfortunately I’m about to head out for the whole morning and won’t be able to see Wilson so on my return I’ll pop back onto PB to catch up with commentry.

  56. victoria

    BB

    I too am looking forward to hearing Wilson’s testimony.

    Btw Are you able to post the link to the RC proceedings? Thanks in advance

  57. victoria

    Thanks guytaur

  58. CTar1

    Tikrit taken.

    It’s all rosey after the democratic election in Iraq.

    Will it be Basra or Baghdad next?

  59. lizzie

    [Joe O’Brien ‏@joeobrien24 39s
    .Social Services Minister Kevin Andrews due to speak at major ACOSS conf in next few mins – watch live on @abcnews24.]

    Warning…

  60. dave

    lizzie@45

    Hockey is trying to bully us into accepting Hockeynomics.
    Shouting and spitting won’t do it, Joe.

    Good of him to throw it all in the faces of those he is trying to make their lives worse – get it all back in the papers.

    The *class warfare* rant for some reason has been a winner for the tories in the past – it certainly was for howard – but this time I doubt it.

    But hockey is running through the usual nonsense he normally sprouts trying to find some thing that *works*.

    He has tried –

    – We all have to pull together – then let the business & high earners off basically.

    – Think of your country – not yourself – then let the business & high earners off basically.

    – There is a Budget emergency – yet this budget does next to nothing to address that false statement.

    – There is no alternative – There is of course – the obvious one is to reduce big ticket tax expenditure like business welfare.

    – Stop complaining – The tories complained for 4 years and are now getting it back.

    – We are doing what the CoA recommended. BS the CoA put up what you wanted them to.

    – We are taking the hard decisions. BS you are reducing the living circumstances of most people who are not wealthy.

    – Complaining about the budget is class warefare. Yes the budget is class warfare by the tories on those who cannot fight back.

    – We make no apologies about this budget. We all know that and we know tories don’t believe in apologies unless they are demanding them.

    No matter how much hockey squawks or rants – this is a nasty budget that punishes while failing to address the fundamental issue of structural deficit.

    No matter how much hockey squawks or rants – hockey and abbott have done a pathetic job of selling this dud budget and it has and will continue to damage the tories politically.

    At least people have now had a good look at hockey and I doubt if he will ever get to be PM.

    The likes of Andrew Elder are doing about the best job in calling hockey and the rest of the tories on all of this – along with Ross Gittens, the Kouk and a bit from Mega George.

    The rest of the media just let it all go through to the keeper – or are asleep.

  61. victoria

    The geek on twitter

    [How much tax do we pay to subsidise Men in Blue Ties living off the public teat most of their lives? #auspol pic.twitter.com/lMkzzhriYf]

    https://mobile.twitter.com/geeksrulz/status/455156263152668672/photo/1

  62. dave

    [ Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 2m
    Tony Abbott’s gift to President Obama is a custom made Presidential surfboard made in the PM’s home town of Manly London : http://latika.me/SOhgsl ]

    There fixed now.

    I didn’t know they made surf boards in London ?

  63. guytaur

    @brodiewest: The land of the fair go is disappearing, argues former Liberal leader John Hewson http://t.co/zCtI9fTvYd via @ConversationEDU

  64. guytaur

    “@political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is in Brisbane today and will address the @ACOSS Annual Conference at 10.30am #auspol”

  65. lizzie

    Andrew isn’t talking about the “what” he says, but about the “why”.

    I switched off. Same b.s.

  66. psyclaw

    BB

    “Yet I still can’t understand why these people seem to hate Gillard so much. It’s almost visceral.”

    One word too many …. the “almost” has to go.

    As I said the other day, I have a bro-in-law who adores Smith, Kernohan, Blewett and Nowick(i) ….. viscerally adores them.

    It goes without saying that Hadley, Oldfield, AJones, and Bolta he also adores and gets all his “inside info” from them. A tradie, his radio is on them all day, and he relaxes in the evening with Bolt on 2GB.

    One can only speculate about the reasons they all hate JG. I guess it’s a combo ……. add a tablespoon of misogyny to 2 teaspoons of innate redneckery, and 2 cups of unspecified aged grudges.

    Insulate this mixture from all outside knowledge, boil it for 5 years or so in saucepan of lies and deceit, and then add extra flame and reduce the mixture to pure delusion.

    Strain the delusion through a lattice of alcohol damaged neurones, add in a few slimy adept manipulators of the Nowick-Markson genre and bake in a conservative think tank fuelled by Murdochian power.

    Now let a lazy MSM stir the pot, add its own get-Gillard agenda and give a never ending supply of air to the now well desiccated delusion. Let it all rest and “mature” for a further 4 years in an atmosphere of of Abbottesque venom and it’ll “culture” into a delicious poppy seed vengeance cake.

    I think something like that has happened whilst journos and especially the press gallery have been Rip van Winkling for the last decade, more or less.

  67. zoomster

    I start this by reminding everyone how shaky my grasp of maths is, but here goes…

    According to the Treasurer (surely the most important mathematician in the country) 1/12 of each person’s income in Australia goes to supporting someone else.

    This is a remarkable claim.

    Firstly, as we know, a large part of the working population effectively don’t pay tax at all. But we’ll assume Joe’s not talking about them, but about ‘normal’ people (you know, the important ones).

    Fortunately for the mathematically challenged like myself, there’s actually a website which calculates this stuff.

    http://www.wheredomytaxesgo.com.au/index.php

    The average Australian income was 72,800 in 2013.

    On that income, the TOTAL tax a person would pay is $15, 028.

    The social security and welfare contribution is : $5,281

    Given that 72,800 means an income of about $6000 a month, Joe is wrong.

  68. sprocket_

    Hawke being welcomed by Reagan in 1985

    Wonder what optics will be there for the Lying Friar?

    http://t.co/0tC1eIELtl

  69. guytaur

    “@SenatorLudlam: .@kevinandrewsmp now mansplaining class warfare to assembled service providers at #ACOSSConf2014 #Budget2014”

  70. victoria

    Mr Denmore on twitter

    [So when the rich & powerful kick the heads of the rest, that’s tough ‘reform’. When the rest fight back, that’s 1970s class warfare? #auspol]

  71. guytaur

    @AlboMP: Let’s rejoice: progressive views which were once radical are now mainstream | Anthony Albanese http://t.co/V1YR6khD05 via @guardian

  72. Raaraa

    I wonder how long I have to work to help pay the cost of law and order to contain the crime as a result of poverty.

    And how long to pay for corporate welfare and negative gearing.

  73. DisplayName

    How much does the average person on welfare receive?

    Joe ignores people who have essentially paid for their own welfare, such as the elderly, through their own labour during the course of their working life. That group alone comprises 40% of the welfare budget.

  74. victoria

    DisplayName

    Just heard on ABC radio that 75% of fhe welfare budget is allocated to the age pension. Not sure how accurate this is though

  75. CTar1

    BK – Pope in the groove.

    Meher – Yes. Truzzz boring as batsh#t but he does listen and reads his briefing documents. An example the interview he gave from RAAF Pearce re’ MH 370 no dramatics like Tones and when some questions of a technical nature came up he immediately let the two RAAF guys answer rather than ad libbing.

  76. bemused

    meher baba@18

    I reckon that the David Pope cartoon this morning is one of the cleverest I’ve seen in years. 10/10!

    BK: you and others like to ridicule Warren Truss a fair bit. And he is undoubtedly one of the most uncharismatic people ever to go into politics.

    But I watched him on Insiders and felt that the content of what he said was light years ahead of the likes of Abbott, Hockey and Pyne. He had mastered his briefing, spun as much as he felt was reasonable, and was unfailingly polite at all times.

    Contrast that to the others mentioned, who typically aren’t across the facts, consistently ignore the question and are rude and aggressive, and parrot catch phrases which are detached from reality.

    In short, Truss would be a much better PM than any of the leading Libs. IMO.

    I agree about Truss and have never quite understood the depth of antipathy toward him on PB.

    Certainly not Mr Charisma, but miles in front of any Lib I can think of in other respects.

  77. bemused

    Socrates@21

    So much for mission accomplished. The Iraqi army simply ran away rather than stop insurgents taking over four cities. The looted weapons are being sent across to Syria.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-12/isis-militants-expand-across-northern-iraq/5517046

    Have a good day all. Agreed, David Pope cartoon is brilliant. Perhaps he could work Joe Hockey into a Mickey Mouse theme, trying to conjure up the budget?

    Goofy would be the best fit for Hockey.

  78. DisplayName

    victoria, it probably depends on what is being counted as welfare.

  79. lizzie

    Thinking about Credlin attending dinner with Rupert and friends, she was either there to prompt Abbott when he lost the thread, or to take notes for future Coalition policy.
    Or perhaps to pour him into a car when he’d had a little too much?

  80. sprocket_

    Nowicki. Counsel assisting the Kangaroo Court says they are not after the truth, so won’t call him

  81. psyclaw

    Bemused and Meher Baba

    Yes, we all like to make fun of Truss, but for my money he would be far better than any of the Libs as a replacement for Abbott.

    He is a calm, sober type who can actually engage n discussion on a rational basis, albeit that I don’t agree with most of his basic assumptions.

    He exhibits IMHO an appropriate gravitas to the position, and certainly would never let crass political comment enter his words on formal or ceremonial occasions.

    OS he would not generate any of the scorn and embarrassment Abbott does.

  82. bemused

    psyclaw@86

    Bemused and Meher Baba

    Yes, we all like to make fun of Truss, but for my money he would be far better than any of the Libs as a replacement for Abbott.

    He is a calm, sober type who can actually engage n discussion on a rational basis, albeit that I don’t agree with most of his basic assumptions.

    He exhibits IMHO an appropriate gravitas to the position, and certainly would never let crass political comment enter his words on formal or ceremonial occasions.

    OS he would not generate any of the scorn and embarrassment Abbott does.

    He would probably go almost unnoticed, which is certainly better than being a conspicuous fool like Tone.

  83. sprocket_

    Bombshells about Nowicki won’t be reported by RupertRooters, other than perhaps as “desperate attempts to….”

  84. dave

    [ Yes, we all like to make fun of Truss ]

    He is in a senior public position and is only coping what others cop.

    Labor people in similar positions get far worse from the tories and have over many many years.

    Truss dishes it out along with the best as well.

    MB & Truuss need to HTFU.

  85. sprocket_

    Nowicki attempting to interfere with witnesses, according to Dr K

  86. poroti

    CTar1

    The next of The Independent’s 100 Moments . I did not realise just how brave Siegfried Sassoon was on the battlefield. He definitely deserved the nickname his comrades gave him , Mad Jack.

    [‘Mad Jack’ takes on the War Office

    “I am writing you this private letter with the greatest possible regret. I must inform you that it is my intention to refuse to perform any further military duties. I am doing this as a protest… I am fully aware of what I am letting myself in for.”]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/world-history/history-of-the-first-world-war-in-100-moments/a-history-of-the-first-world-war-in-100-moments-mad-jack-takes-on-the-war-office-9530421.html

  87. CTar1

    There’s nothing more needed to cheer me up than the sound of Hockey squealing in the morning.

  88. sprocket_

    Sadly, Dyson Heydon is not after the truth it would appear.

    Nowicki’s coaching of other witnesses is not relevant apparently

  89. dave

    sprocket_@90

    Nowicki attempting to interfere with witnesses, according to Dr K

    Wilson’s barrister having to do a lot of talking to get stuff included.

  90. dave

    sprocket_@93

    Sadly, Dyson Heydon is not after the truth it would appear.

    Nowicki’s coaching of other witnesses is not relevant apparently

    The Commish certainly looks to be making it hard for Wilson to tell his version of things – as it relates to Nowicki in this instance.

    Bad look. Kangaroo Court.

  91. Dee

    Since when did compassion and the ideal of a fair go become dirty words?

    Hockey likes to politically label advocates who aspire for the best in human nature as failures and something to be feared.

    Why?

    The system is not perfect, people still fall through the cracks and there will always be those that no amount of help will be of benefit but do we really want a country that lives by the creed that greed and selfishness is good, a dog eat dog mentality and the less fortunate and vulnerable can go f*ck themselves?

    Grrr…better stop now I’m so friggin angry! 😡

  92. Raaraa

    @Dee

    The whole notion about “think about how this affects you first, screw the other people” is what I can’t get my head around.

  93. guytaur

    @ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Opposition Leader @BillShortenMP speaking at #ACOSSConf2014 http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol #ABCNews24

  94. lizzie

    Dee

    You may be even more angry “soon”. 🙁

    [Judith Ireland ‏@CanberraCamper 57m
    Andrews says that the discussion paper on further welfare changes will be released “soon” – hopefully when PM gets back from overseas.]

  95. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: The rich must not ignore the poor because they are both tied in a single garment of destiny #ACOSSConf2014 #auspol”

  96. Darn

    [The *class warfare* rant for some reason has been a winner for the tories in the past – it certainly was for howard – but this time I doubt it.]

    It won’t work this time because the class that is being attacked are the less well off and they know that it is Hockey’s budget that is doing the attacking. I’m really surprised that he would be so stupid as to not understand that.

  97. guytaur

    “@AustralianLabor: “For Labor…fairness and national prosperity are twins. They are inseparable. You can’t have one without the other” @billshortenmp #auspol”

  98. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: This unfair Budget distorts the domestic destiny of hundreds of thousands of families #ACOSSConf2014 #auspol”

  99. adrian

    [Carabine should learn to ask the right questions.]

    Carabine should learn to be a journalist.

  100. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: Australians are paying their way, they do not need a lecture from an out of touch Govt #ACOSSConf2014 #auspol”

  101. guytaur

    @rachelbaxendale: Trades Hall Council claiming 20K turnout: “@VicUnions: #bustthebudget 20,000 strong http://t.co/VMKi5NMv5u” #springst #auspol

  102. guytaur

    “@AustralianLabor: “we can have a sustainable Budget…without creating a false Budget emergency and without punishing the vulnerable” @billshortenmp #auspol”

  103. poroti

    Busy boy has a gym workout with Hugh Jackman after his drinkies with Rupert. No wonder he doesn’t have time to meet with the World Bank and IMF heads.

  104. Dee

    Lizzie

    Hockey’s attacking society ideals makes him worse, in my eyes than anything we have heard from Rabbott.

    Yeah, they’re all tarred and feathered with the same brush but Hockey was cold and callous.

    This was the ‘real’ Joe Hockey speaking, this was his genuine black heart moment which is so often hidden beneath his jovial facade in the media.

  105. guytaur

    24 cuts away from Shorten Speech. They did not do so with Andrews

  106. Dee

    Anyway, that’s enough growling from me. 🙂

    I is off!

    btw: Is there anything preventing Wilson’s barrister from calling the RC a Kangaroo Court?

    Will check in later.

  107. guytaur

    “@LouiseCHall: Joe Hockey’s defamation case against @smh could be heard by a jury”

  108. Boerwar

    [CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 12, 2014 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    Tikrit taken.

    It’s all rosey after the democratic election in Iraq.

    Will it be Basra or Baghdad next?]

    The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands. Basra is mostly Shiite. If it falls Al Maliki is fukt and so is the trillion dollar ‘investment’ by the West in Iraqi democracy.

    That IS why we conquered Iraq, wasn’t it?

    Al Qaeda reckons the ISIS chaps are a bit outre and has turfed them out.

    The ISIS are not your typical withdrawn Jane Austen heroines. They beheaded a chap for laughing at a joke. I think they were doing the old laughing your head off routine. (In Australia, for the same thing, we only suspend public broadcasters, and not by the neck, either). If they take on Baghdad it will be a major bloodbath.

    The operative $64 question: For how long will the Turks restrain themselves? The silly bastards helped get all this off the ground and it has gone well beyond their control. ISIS gentlement are holding around 80 Turkish diplomats, special forces units and assorted family members hostage at the moment.

    And the Turks are starting to say things like if you touch a Turkmen in Iraq, we will not be responsible for the consequences.

    And if you enjoy a neocon warmonger fuktwit in full flight:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished_speech#mediaviewer/File:Bush_mission_accomplished.jpg

  109. kakuru

    [The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands. ]

    Apparently the Iraqi Shiite-led government of al-Malaki has assiduously been marginalising the Sunnis, ever since it got into power. al-Malaki himself has been deaf to US/Western entreaties to be more inclusive. So the Sunnis are getting desperate.

  110. guytaur

    TURC not liking Wilson answers

  111. Bushfire Bill

    It looks like Wilson is guilty of… not dotting “i’s” and crossing “t’s”.

    Counsel Assisting just accused him of making things up.

    Prove it, arsehole.

  112. guytaur

    No coverage of 20 000 plus protest in Melbourne on News 24 so fat

  113. Boerwar

    [kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 12, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands.

    Apparently the Iraqi Shiite-led government of al-Malaki has assiduously been marginalising the Sunnis, ever since it got into power. al-Malaki himself has been deaf to US/Western entreaties to be more inclusive. So the Sunnis are getting desperate.]

    Exactemente.

  114. lizzie

    [Federal Politics ‏@PoliticsFairfax 1m
    Unemployed youth must apply for 40 jobs a month despite not receiving any welfare payments #auspol http://bit.ly/1loDegA ]

  115. Boerwar

    lizzie
    That should make frictional unemployment a whole lot more economically efficient for the nation.

  116. Boerwar

    A very funny answer from Wilson… on legal retainers… ‘you still send the bill, I bet’.

  117. Bushfire Bill

    Wilson turns it back on Counsel Assisting as to why invoices were sent, even if no work done for a few months: “Do YOU ever accept retainers? Even if you do no legal work, I bet you still send the bills!”

  118. lizzie

    Boerwar

    Only encourages bullshit applications.

  119. rossmcg

    Nice backhander to counsel assisying from Wilson.

    Legal firms on retainer still send a bill even if they do no work.

    Counsel swallows adjust tie and moved on …

  120. mikehilliard

    As a uni student who was in the share accommodation merry-go-round I’m having trouble trying to remember exactly where I was living in 1992.

  121. zoidlord

    @lizzie/119

    First step of getting rid of Welfare.

  122. Boerwar

    l

    Yep. And makework for employers. This is utterly useless, vindictive class warfare targetted at young people by a Cabinet of silly old white men (oh, and one old white woman).

  123. zoidlord

    newmatilda ‏@newmatilda 3m

    Welcome To The Age Of Intergenerational Entitlement: The Coalition has discovered the concept of intergenerati… http://bit.ly/1pJx9MB

  124. Boerwar

    Counsel becalmed in heavy weather.

  125. Boerwar

    The whole damn budget is a declaration of class warfare by Abbott and Hockey.

  126. Bushfire Bill

    Now discussing the activities of a “member” of Wilson’s association who is now conveniently passed away.

    Counsel Assisting can’t prove a thing about what he actually did or didn’t do.

    Doesn’t stop him trying, though.

    Wilson is putting up an unexpectedly good fight here.

  127. zoidlord

    Over 100K of jobs “apparently” created this year.

    Now lets do abit of maths.

    9 months / 100,000 = ~11,111 jobs per month.

  128. guytaur

    BB

    Yes Wilson impressive compared to the archivist

  129. zoidlord

    Interesting that Hockey jumps on it:
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/24220550/encouraging-signs-on-jobs-front-hockey/

    “We were told that we were going to inherit unemployment rises of 6.25 per cent,” Mr Hockey told ABC radio.”

  130. lizzie

    Andrews has this light bulb moment: let’s amalgamate all these welfare payments into a few to save administration costs (and tighten the rules so that few people qualify).

    I’d say there will be more room for rorting, more work for admin, and more poverty.

  131. Boerwar

    *laughs*

    Commissioner asks him a question. Wilson tells the Commissioner that he was wondering the same thing.

  132. guytaur

    “@TheKouk: Whacko!”
    @TheKouk: Shocker!”

    @political_alert: Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8 per cent in May: http://t.co/vYAcMxZgHr #auspol

  133. zoidlord

    Unemployment steady at 5.8.

  134. lizzie

    [Australia Institute ‏
    Christine Lagarde from the IMF made it clear health & education are not ‘entitlements’. Hockey disagrees http://ow.ly/xU9eC #auspol ]

  135. zoidlord

    @lizzie/140

    “‘The government is open to criticism and debate about our budget. However, we owe it to the community to set the facts straight and articulate the reasoning behind our decisions,” the Treasurer said.”

    OMFG “set facts straight”??

    On what planet? Mars?

  136. dave

    Bushfire Bill@132

    Wilson is putting up an unexpectedly good fight here.

    Am looking forward to abbott having to front up to a RC in due course.

    If he thinks he is going to just get away with all of this he is dreaming.

  137. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    Since Abbott govt elected: Employment: up 94,500 (11,800 a month) Unemployed: up 23,100. Unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.8%

    Dispite the Employment numbers, Unemployment is still rising, due to fact of what I said before, not enough jobs to counter the unemployment rate.

  138. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 12s

    Jobs numbers actually a bit weaker: Last two months: Jobs up only 5,500

  139. Boerwar

    Where there changes in the participation rate?

  140. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 54s

    Please, please, no one say if it wasn’t for the participation rate falling, the unemployment rate would have risen.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-stays-steady-20140612-39yu9.html

    “The participation rate fell marginally to 64.6 per cent, from 64.7 per cent and aggregate month hours worked decreased 2.1 million, or 0.1 per cent, to 1588.6 million hours.”

  141. zoomster

    [Unemployed youth must apply for 40 jobs a month despite not receiving any welfare payments]

    And Centrelink staff are being increased by how many to police this??

    Years ago, the Howard government announced that it was upping the job seeking requirement to 4 job applications a week, up from 2.

    I did a quick back of the envelope calculation and determined that (for that to be meaningful) Centrelink would need to employ around 2000 extra staff just to check the new requirements.

    I haven’t heard that the present government is proposing to increase Centrelink staff numbers. If they’re not, then any proposal they put on the table re job seeker requirements is worthless.

    I know people who let jobseekers put down their names on a sort of semi permanent basis, going back years in some cases. They have never, ever received a phone call from Centrelink to check if the jobseeker did, indeed, approach them.

    So it’s a meaningless gesture, just meant to make job seekers feel even more despondent than they do at present.

  142. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    If participation rate was back at 1980 levels, the unemployment rate would be minus 1%… #uselessanalysis

    Retweeted by sortius
    James Hutchinson ‏@j_hutch 1m

    US engineer at telco conference just asked why Australian debate around NBN has focused on speed and not need.

    Retweeted by sortius
    Sir Don Nardella ‏@DonNardella 3m

    They are still coming! pic.twitter.com/ESem9aUdBP

  143. zoomster

    [Stephen Koukoulas‏@TheKouk·2 mins
    If participation rate was back at 1980 levels, the unemployment rate would be minus 1%…]

    As I keep saying, comparing present unemployment rates with the past is meaningless unless you look at the whole picture..

  144. zoidlord

    Michael Janda ‏@mikejanda 1m

    Unemployment steady at 5.8%. Full-time jobs up, part-time down, participation rate equal lowest since March 2006. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-12/abs-unemployment-data-may/5518320?section=business

  145. zoidlord

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 1m

    All Ords Index -0.5% after the worse than forecast May jobs report. 27k part time jobs lost. Source:IRESS ^SD pic.twitter.com/YxWxcjuhoz

  146. zoidlord

    IMF:
    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australia-third-highest-house-price-215715956.html

    “The fund says prices are “well above the historical averages” in developed countries including Belgium, Canada, Australia, Norway and Sweden.”

    “While a recovery in housing markets around the world is welcome, the IMF says it is critical to avoid another unsustainable boom in house prices like the one that preceded the GFC.”

    Housing Burst?

  147. rossmcg

    I don’t doubt the AWU workplace reform association was a rort, but counsel assisting seems preoccupied with dates, times, places, meetings and who was there, who said what and who wrote what.

    Unless he is building up to a gotcha moment, where is he heading?

  148. lizzie

    [Andrew Callaghan ‏@wombat1974 10m
    Every Union except the AMA and pharmacy guild was there

    ‏@SpaceKidette 10m
    Remember those critics who bagged random people with random issues Marching in March? Hockey just organised them.]

  149. bemused

    zoomster@149


    Stephen Koukoulas‏@TheKouk·2 mins
    If participation rate was back at 1980 levels, the unemployment rate would be minus 1%…


    As I keep saying, comparing present unemployment rates with the past is meaningless unless you look at the whole picture..

    And your point is totally stupid from the POV of the unemployed.

  150. zoidlord

    Now we are importing Policies from the USA:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-considers-importing-usstyle-school-program-with-private-industry-involvement-20140612-39y5y.html

    Which means Multinational companies like IBM (as per the article) get entry level graduates, not only at cheap prices, but also shut out the employer competition.

  151. Bushfire Bill

    Wilson now in a “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, over who was working for whom and when.

    The person in question is dead, so can’t be cross-examined.

  152. Boerwar

    briefly

    I am no good at math. Is that percentage figure on the top line of that table correct?

  153. guytaur

    @theheraldsun: Thousands gather in protest march to Parliament over Federal Budget http://t.co/AXbi5W8sug http://t.co/RKYtDITafj #bustthebudget

  154. MTBW

    zoid

    Does Abbott ever think through anything.

    Interestingly I asked my hairdresser what she thought of Abbott – her response was I voted for him which is something I never will do again.

  155. zoidlord

    Meanwhile, Tax payers pay generous money to Cadbury:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tasmanian-cadbury-workers-sign-generous-pay-deal-after-tony-abbott-promises-them-16m-20140612-39ypy.html

    “Fairfax Media revealed in February that Cadbury workers’ enterprise bargaining agreement contained generous allowances that were comparable, or even better than, workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton.”

  156. poroti

    zoidlord

    It means Rupert Murdoch gains another cash cow. He has been pushing hard for it and has invested hundreds of millions in the US. No coincidence Abbott comes out with that hours after meeting his boss.

  157. poroti

    Gore on Abbott

    [Al Gore: Mother Nature has ‘louder voice’ than Tony Abbott on climate

    …….., said he was aware that the Australian Prime Minister had once described climate-change science using “a scatological term” and that the Abbott government had de-funded bodies established to advise the government on climate change.

    “I don’t pretend to know what the basis of his thinking is, but Mother Nature has a louder voice,” he said, referring to increasing incidences of severe weather]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/al-gore-mother-nature-has-louder-voice-than-tony-abbott-on-climate-20140612-zs4wx.html#ixzz34O4Gi5Dg

  158. bemused

    rossmcg@153

    I don’t doubt the AWU workplace reform association was a rort, but counsel assisting seems preoccupied with dates, times, places, meetings and who was there, who said what and who wrote what.

    Unless he is building up to a gotcha moment, where is he heading?

    Why do you say it was a rort? What constitutes a rort according to you?

  159. guytaur

    “@JimCaseyFBEU: So pregnant women under 30 won’t be exempted from cut off dole for 6 months in 12. Wow. A dog act, from a mongrel govt #bustthebudget #fb”

  160. zoomster

    bemused

    no, actually, it isn’t.

    A low unemployment rate, as we have at present, is good news for the unemployed, because it means that they have better prospects of finding a job.

    There’s also the fact that a low number of unemployed combined with a high participation rate means that many unemployed are exactly in the position I am at present – their partner is employed, so money is coming into the household, and job seeking is thus a want rather than a need.

  161. guytaur

    Hockey just called the budget the economic action strategy

  162. zoidlord

    @guytaur/168

    That doesn’t even make sense, other than a 3 word slogan that doesn’t make sense.

    Must be one of those IPA slogans.

  163. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Joe Hockey: Our #Budget laid down the boldest infrastructure program in modern Australian history #auspol”

  164. rossmcg

    Bemused

    Listening to the evidence leads me to believe that the association was sort up to get money from Theiss.

    I also don’t believe Wilson is guilty of half the things people say he is but I just think this looks dodgy.

    That’s my opinion, which I hope I am entitled to.

  165. guytaur

    Now Hockey lying as a journalist asked don’t these job figures show labor left the economy in good shape?

  166. guytaur

    Yes knock me over with a feather a journalist asking a factual question. Amazing

  167. bemused

    zoomster@167

    bemused

    no, actually, it isn’t.

    A low unemployment rate, as we have at present, is good news for the unemployed, because it means that they have better prospects of finding a job.

    There’s also the fact that a low number of unemployed combined with a high participation rate means that many unemployed are exactly in the position I am at present – their partner is employed, so money is coming into the household, and job seeking is thus a want rather than a need.

    We have a statistical artefact that does not represent the true rate of unemployment which is in fact at least double that figure.

    Job advertisements are receiving hundreds of responses in my field and I believe that is fairly typical.

    We do not have low unemployment and haven’t since the 1970s.

  168. guytaur

    Wow go NT journalists.

  169. poroti

    zoidlord

    Someone sent Joe a link to the site below and he thought it was a serious site.

    http://www.changedesigns.net/public/other/strategy-jargon.html

  170. guytaur

    “@vanbadham: PUT IT IN YOUR DIARY
    July 6
    Next demo
    #bustthebudget
    Please RT
    It’s national.”

  171. bemused

    rossmcg@171

    Bemused

    Listening to the evidence leads me to believe that the association was sort up to get money from Theiss.

    I also don’t believe Wilson is guilty of half the things people say he is but I just think this looks dodgy.

    That’s my opinion, which I hope I am entitled to.

    To my knowledge, it has log been commonplace for groups of union officials to set up a fund to assist their re-election. They get funds from whatever sources they can, including friendly employers and also by putting in a percentage of their pay.

    So what’s new? *YAWN*

  172. Bushfire Bill

    [“@ABCNews24: Joe Hockey: Our #Budget laid down the boldest infrastructure program in modern Australian history #auspol”]

    Surely that should be history of the World?

    Joe is such a klutz. He’s stuffed-up every single portfolio he’s ever been involved in. And now he’s stuffing up Treasury.

    He has either his “Happy” or “Grumpy” face in a stunning portfolio of thespian tricks to rely on.

    The people love him (or so he thinks). But he’s just a dupe for Abbott… again.

    Poor bugger, he probably doesn’t even realize it.

    Abbott’s off in America, swaggering around with billionaires and Presidents, while poor Joe has to sell a lemon back home.

    Joe didn’t like Abbott’s Budgetary ideas all that much, but he put a brave face on it and convinced himself (at least) that he was all for the Tea PArty method of running a government.

    When Tony comes back he’ll probably cut the rug out from under Joe all over again.

  173. Bushfire Bill

    First mention of the name “Gillard” in Wilson’s inquisition.

  174. zoomster

    bemused

    I’m having difficulty getting work. However, I don’t conclude from that there is hidden unemployment. I conclude that there aren’t many jobs in my field in the area I live and that employers would prefer to employ a younger person who is cheaper.

    Of course I think it sucks personally but I don’t fool myself into thinking that the employment stats aren’t meaningful.

    Even if they’re out by a factor of whatever (and the evidence you’ve provided for this is based on shaky assumptions about the reason young people, for example, are opting for further education) they still tell a consistent story.

    As for the participation rates, they’re a matter of fact. By your own admission, the last time we had ‘full employment’ was when the proportion of married women in the workforce was a lot lower than it is today.

  175. briefly

    Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 2.1 million hours (0.1%) to 1,598.6 million hours.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1May%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=May%202014&num=&view

    The ABS has recorded eight consecutive months of declines in hours worked in trend terms. In October 2013 the ABS recorded an aggregate 1,647.9 million hours million hours worked. By May, absolute labour demand had fallen by about 50 million hours or 3% – a significant fall, equivalent to about 4.5% on an annual basis.

    In October last year the labour force was estimated in trend terms to comprise 12.292 million and by May had increased to 12.346, an increase of 48,000 or 0.39%. (Annual growth rate is about 0.6%)

    Clearly the labour force is growing less quickly than the population but still more quickly than labour demand.

    This reflects continuing stagnation in the domestic economy, also reflected in weak domestic contribution to GDP and declining real wages.

    The LNP’s budget clearly was not framed with this background in mind and poses a threat to the vitality of the economy.

  176. Kevin Rennie

    With the Royal Commission looking at union political donations, this bit of research might provide some balance and food for future action:

    ‘Unless we have real transparency, accountability and enforcement of political donations legislation, the money might as well be given in plain packages like the bad of days of Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s brown paper bags.’

    Townsville Money Trail: Political Donors in Queensland’s Deep North

  177. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 2m

    April employment revised lower by 3,900…

  178. daretotread

    Zoomster

    The employment stats have been pretty meaningless for some time because they define employed as something ridiculous like 1 hr in the last week.

    Briefly seems to have the correct approach ie number of hours actually worked. This is a useful measure, the rest is window dressing

  179. guytaur

    “@SwannyQLD: The only person waging class war is Hockey with his lifters and leaners and intergenerational warfare against the young #delusional”

  180. Roger Miller

    Murdochs entry into education is an each way bet. His newspaper business is on borrowed time, his cash cow right now is pay TV, that he has managed to extend the life of by killing the NBN, but fibre to the home will be here eventually because nothing else makes any sense, at which point Rupert can use it to deliver education resources, as pay TV dies.

  181. kakuru

    [“Fairfax Media revealed in February that Cadbury workers’ enterprise bargaining agreement contained generous allowances that were comparable, or even better than, workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton.”]

    What federal seat is the Cadbury factory in? Just curious.

  182. guytaur

    “@naomiwoodley: 2 fmr Salvos welfare staff on Manus Is & Nauru have told a Senate inq. they were recruited through Facebook w/out an interview or training.”

  183. Player One

    [ Murdochs entry into education is an each way bet. ]

    Surely there is a clear conflict of interest here?

    If he educates people, won’t they stop reading his newspapers?

  184. Roger Miller

    Player One@190


    Murdochs entry into education is an each way bet.


    Surely there is a clear conflict of interest here?

    If he educates people, won’t they stop reading his newspapers?

    He doesn’t care about the newspapers. They don’t report news anymore. They are only useful as propaganda. If they die he wouldn’t give a stuff. Selling “education” could be even more effective as propaganda than the nearly dead newspapers.

  185. victoria

    Kakuru

    I believe it is in the seat of Denison

  186. Rex Douglas

    Roger Miller #187

    Fast broadband opens up content deliverers such as Murdoch to so much more competition.

    His current high level of influence will gradually dissipate.

  187. poroti

    victoria

    It is . I had a quick look at its history and goodness its first couple of MPs were flexible about which party they represented.

    [Sir Philip Fysh Protectionist 1903–1906
    Anti-Socialist 1906–1909
    Commonwealth Liberal 1909–1910

    William Laird Smith Labor 1910–1916
    National Labor 1916–1917
    Nationalist 1917–1922]

  188. Roger Miller

    Rex Douglas@193

    Roger Miller #187

    Fast broadband opens up content deliverers such as Murdoch to so much more competition.

    His current high level of influence will gradually dissipate.

    Hence the push to supply “education”

  189. victoria

    Poroti

    Things were more fluid back in the day. 🙂

  190. victoria

    I was unable to watch the RC so far, but has Wilson’s lawyer asked any questions of Wilson yet?