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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 12, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

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Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2198 comments

2,198 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

  1. WWP

    “Oh and at work the Dockers fans I know are being relatively gracious and normal, like that big chip on their shoulder is almost gone after 1 1/2 seasons doing quite well under that Ross fellow.”

    what are you on about? Chip on Docker’s supporters shoulders? A chip about what?

    Just face it. Dockers are better than the Eagles now… 🙂

  2. Guytaur and Victoria

    Thanks re Insiders, siesta time here so will watch now I know my tablet is safe from being thrown out the window 😀

  3. Guytaur and Victoria

    Thanks re Insiders, siesta time here so will watch now I know my tablet is safe from being thrown out the window 😀

  4. Re BK @2155: yes, incitement is a better description of what Abbott and Hockey are doing. And who are they inciting war on? The elderly – voters’ parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles. The disabled – who suffered accidents, inherited that wrong genes and in some cases made poor lifestyle choices. Are they to be left to starve? And the young unemployed. Are their parents supposed to support them till they’re 30 while they chase jobs that aren’t there?

    This Government works by inciting fear and contempt of the Other. A sort of ‘downwards envy’. Of course, if his audience really thought about it, it’s war on their family, friends, neighbours and maybe one day but fir the grace of whatever deity, themselves.

  5. [Just face it. Dockers are better than the Eagles now… :)]

    They certainly have been the last 18 months, and will probably win the derby quite easily.

  6. frednk

    There are only about 12 million taxpayers in Australia* so thats about $12k each of us is paying for welfare.

    *unless you include the GST in which case everyone, including those on welfare, are paying tax and hence “taxpayers”. However, most people use the term to refer to income tax payers.

  7. BBC World has the deregistration request by Abbott’s mob on Tassie Forest World Heritage status on their ticker.

    So the world is seeing that now. Hope UN decides to keep it World Heritage. Its a case I belive the Greens before the LNP

  8. Late to the party re Abbott’s gaffe on Socceroos captain.

    Let’s just say, for arguments sake, Abbott’s minders looked up Wiki for their information on the Socceroos captain.

    And let’s just say they saw his Christian name was Michael.

    And let’s just say they saw, out of the corner of one eye, the diminutive of Michael, being Mike, instead of Mile.

    Okay. No probs.

    EXCEPT, there’s a helluva lotta difference between the pronunciation of Mike and Mile. It’s just not the substitution of a consonant.

    Mike = M-eye-k.

    Mile = M-eye-al.

    And I’m not even going into shwas.

    Alright, Abbott got it totally mixed up.

    EXCEPT,

    The Socceroos captain’s name of Mile is pronounced Mee-lay.

    Nothng to do with M-eye-k. What a douchebag!

  9. Well Iraq is sure turning to shit.

    How long did those counteless billions in ‘nation building’ hold out for? Two and a half years.

  10. lefty e

    The only good thing about the disintegration of Iraq I can see is that the Kurds may finally have a State again.

    That will put them one ahead of the Palestinians.

  11. E
    [There are only about 12 million taxpayers in Australia* so thats about $12k each of us is paying for welfare.]

    How mucha ya payin’ for the billionaires?

    About $12K?

    That’s another month ya’re workin’ for nothin’.

    Ya must be overpaid, Mike Hunt.

  12. [2165
    Everything

    frednk

    There are only about 12 million taxpayers in Australia* so thats about $12k each of us is paying for welfare.]

    This is completely misleading.

    The total welfare bill, including aged and disability pensions, unemployment benefits and family tax benefits, is about $130 billion, or 8.6% of GDP. The share collectively contributed by wage and salary earners, expressed in proportion with the wages share of the economy, is 53%, or about $2,760 per capita pa.

    Higher income earners contribute more than low income earners partly because the individual tax scales are progressively sloped and partly because they just have higher incomes. The progressive nature of the system is also negatively affected by the ability of high income earners to use various tax shelters to minimise their liabilities.

    The overall effect of the structure is to mildly redress the income and wealth inequalities that are so easily observed in the economy.

  13. briefly

    This idiot, Everything, has lived his life on the taxpayer.

    He doesn’t run a medical business. He has no overheads.

    Yet, he can sit there and say that every taxpayer contributes $12 grand to subsidise welfare recipients of every colour and creed, including corporate Australia while his own salary is also paid by the taxpayer.

    Yet his mantra is every man for himself.

    Bout time you stood on your own two feet, Everything, instead of pontificating what others should while you’re not prepared to do it yourself.

  14. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seeker-babies-secretly-moved-to-christmas-island-20140615-3a5j3.html

    Is this the last gasp of a totally non-compassionate government? To remove new-borns to Christmas Island?

    Not quite

    The ultimate insult is to have the Catholic Education Dept overseeing the institution of education on Christmas Island.

    Everything should be worrying about our tax dollars supporting sectarian Christian education for asylum seekers on Christmas Island.

    But, I won’t hold my breath on this hypocrisy of the first order.

  15. Everything Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 10:41 pm @ 2165

    There are only about 12 million taxpayers in Australia* so thats about $12k each of us is paying for welfare.
    *unless you include the GST in which case everyone, including those on welfare, are paying tax and hence “taxpayers”. However, most people use the term to refer to income tax payers.

    Actually it’s less than that. Company tax would also pay a portion.

  16. In 2013 individuals paid just under $160 billion in personal tax so if there are 12 million individual taxpayers then each one on average actually paid more than $12,000. In addition individuals also contribute to the GST tax revenue.

  17. davidwh Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 12:11 am @ 2182

    In 2013 individuals paid just under $160 billion in personal tax so if there are 12 million individual taxpayers then each one on average actually paid more than $12,000. In addition individuals also contribute to the GST tax revenue.

    As well as various excises (e.g. fuel, alcohol, tobacco), tariffs and other taxes. However, only a portion of these taxes are spent on social security.

  18. The top 10 % of income earners currently pay 45% of all income tax.

    The bottom 33% of income tax payers currently pay 5% of all income tax.

    These are ATO stats quoted by the Australian.

    Anyone who suggests that the grossly distorted average income figure simply calculated by reference to a division of gross receipts by the number of payers is either a simpleton or a spiv-con.

    Joe Hockey is their leading light.

  19. [In 2013 individuals paid just under $160 billion in personal tax]

    I think you’ll find that about half that doesn’t come from personal tax.

  20. 2193

    That was not the question, nor was I the questionee, however since the higher rate of the blind pension came up I though I would mention that it should be means-tested (it is not currently, I believe, just as it is at a separate rate).

  21. Tom,

    The Blind Pension is at the same rate as the DSP.

    Its not means tested so long as you’re not claiming rent assistance.

  22. I am not conversant with residential tenancy law in Victoria, but in any civilised jurisdiction, if an adult freely enters into a lease agreement, having inspected the property, and then seeks to terminate the lease because he or she finds it is not up market enough, or believes their special need for security is not sufficiently provided for in the premises, they can do so. However the tenant must pay the damages incurred as a result of the breach of the contract of lease.

    I wonder what type of father, who, perhaps correctly, finds his adult child in unsuitable accommodation, has the ability to secure AFP and state police reports declaring the property unsuitable, and be able to provide those reports to his daughter to use as evidence in civil litigation proceedings.

    And I wonder how any tribunal, acting in accordance with known principles of Law, can use the substance of such reports as the basis for declaring the lease terminable at the behest of the tenant without compensation to the landlord.

    And I wonder how a man on $500,000 a year, plus perks worth several times over, can place his young adult daughter in a situation where she is sued for at most a couple of thousand dollars, and not seek to save her the embarrassment and ignominity by paying the money himself.

    I suppose it takes a special type of person …

    Or perhaps there are other facts pertinent to the matter which have not been reported, accurately or at all.