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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 16, 2014

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll shows Labor down a point on two-party preferred for the second poll in a row, and a narrowing of Bill Shorten's lead as preferred prime minister.

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The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1250 comments

1,250 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

  1. [1192
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    @Briefly/1189

    I like one comment in the Guardian, DoleChoices.]

    …very apt!!

  2. Everything@1097

    So
    LNP = 39.1 + (0.2*4.6=0.9) + (0.6*22=13.2) =53.2

    Although I am not sure what the “others” distribution should be when most of it is PUP

    You are forgetting it is OPV in Queensland, so not all the preferences flow. The 2PP would be over 54 to LNP, unless the PUP preferences favoured Labor which is the big unknown.

    Something I would add from Tasmanian state election experience is that ReachTEL polls that include an undecided option (like this one) seem to behave differently to those that don’t. In our case the ones that included the undecided option skewed pro-Liberal and anti-ALP compared to the others. So I would like to see polling from someone else before being satisfied the LNP is doing quite this well.

  3. Victoria

    Rugby League easily defeats the AFL on all TV ratings.

    Bemused

    I’m pretty sure they had VIC V SA in state of origin to decide state of ballerina supremacy before the origin concept in Rugby League.

  4. [1200
    zoidlord

    Retweeted by Lady Van Badham
    Torin Peel ‏@torin 5m

    92% of respondents in today’s Fairfax poll believe Tony Abbott should call a double dissolution election. Bring it on. #auspol

    Wow that’s a big support for Double Dissolution, even if you include any Margin of Error.]

    Voters hoping for a DD and the chance to throttle Abbott.

  5. Pooff, the Dragon

    [Of course the FAA provides the only real national football competition in Australia. This is appropriate as it is real football.]

    There are many games of “football”.

    The Soccer version is younger than AFL. Regardless, I think it is a very arrogant, big money institution. Where there is big money there is always corruption.

    It has no exclusive rights to “football” more than than any other over-hyped game.

  6. zoidlord@1200

    Retweeted by Lady Van Badham
    Torin Peel ‏@torin 5m

    92% of respondents in today’s Fairfax poll believe Tony Abbott should call a double dissolution election. Bring it on. #auspol

    Wow that’s a big support for Double Dissolution, even if you include any Margin of Error.

    Not a real poll – just more stackable opt-in junk. The Margin of Error on all such is at least 100%. 😉

  7. I don’t think the AFL grand final should move from the MCG. The MCG is the biggest ground in Australia and the spiritual home of Australian Football. The FA cup final doesn’t travel around England.

    Imagine a Richmond Carlton Grand Final in Sydney… there are no less than 3 impossibilities with that scenario.

    As for SoO. Up yours Queensland. You may be parochial, but you are also b*llshit artists of the worst kind. The last time I checked a map Bowraville, Minto, Tenterfield and countless other places are actually in New South Wales.

    And to say the refs did a poor job with a straight face after that fiasco of game one just demonstrates that there is no limit to your delusions.

    Enjoy Campbell Newman. He is all you have now.

  8. Zoomster

    [“I’m praying for a victory for the Socceroos. I think it’s highly improbable that God exists, but it’s more likely than us beating the Netherlands…”]

    For better or worse, I disagree. There’s a very remote chance that a combination of anomalies large enough for Australia to beat the Netherlands might occur, especially if the Netherlands is as sure as your son that it can’t happen.

    There’s simply no chance that God as described could exist, and anyone who can believe that God does exist, can easily believe in an Australian victory.

  9. [And to say the refs did a poor job with a straight face after that fiasco of game one just demonstrates that there is no limit to your delusions.]

    LoL

  10. The FA Cup is a knock-out competition with the Final held in London, the capitol of the country.

    The AFL Grand Final should be held in Canberra.

  11. zoidlord

    [Greens, PUP + ALP obstructionism threatens Vic rail upgrade funding: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/palmer-and-greens-like-economic-troglodytes-20140618-zsdp2.html … via @theage #springst]

    The 15% bonus if selling public assets is not a policy for infrastructure, its purpose is to destroy any and all publicly owned assets.

    the “infrastructure” part is a fig leaf/a unicorn.

    The LNP is saying the Commonwealth will NOT invest in even the most important works for the nation, if the State does not privatise something!!!!

    It’s class war of the most blatant type.

    I am sure the ALP will, as increasingly common, mumble, grumble, confuse and stumble and pass the bills with a few of its own fig leafs and unicorns.

    Though i hope not

  12. Melbourne is the spiritual home of the AFL because it is still the VFL. In its current form it will not be long before there will be no Victorian teams in the Grand Finals.

    Currently the AFL have (other) state teams playing Victorian suburban and regional teams. The states that do not have to share their best players around a number of clubs will start routinely beating the Victorian teams and the GF will be more often played between other state teams, The AFL i.e. will be most displeased with this development,

    The Draft will cease to exist at some stage through court challenge against restraint of trade.

    That is when it will all go pear-shaped very quickly.

  13. One of the few things sport has going for it in these days of rampant money making are a few traditions.

    That’s why the FA cup final is played at Wembley, why the Melbourne cup is on the first Tuesday in November, we have test cricket at the MCG on Boxing Day and in Sydney at New Year. and the afl grand final at the MCG on the last Saturday in September.

    Is the NRL grand final ever player anywhere other than Sydney?

    Other sports move the big games, the Super Bowl and soccer’s champions league final are two that come to mind. That is their way of doing it and I doubt that the participating teams give a rats about the venue.

    I don’t know what tradition saw Rugby League state of origin played in Melbourne in the 1990s and Bledisloe Cup games in Hong Kong … Probably the money making tradition

    State of origin rugby league returns to Melbourne next year by the way.

  14. Puff

    Are you channelling the late and great abc broadcaster george grljusich?

    George useful to regale us in WA at length about how the how the AFL structure was a breach of the trade practices act.

    Of course he was right but who is going to challenge it? A lot of people from media magnates down the the doormen at the he footy clubs have a very keen interest in ensuring that the boat is not rocked.

    And as for the AFL being a case of State teams v Local Victorian teams, have a look at the club lists. Some of the best players in the interstate teams are from Victoria and vice versa.

  15. Australia is the only FIFA affiliated country that afaik uses the bastardisation of a league decider, the Grand Final. That the FAA adopted this money-making foolishness from the AFL angers me. The idea that a league competition is decided by a separate tournament is crazy. It is good for money and television but it is unjust and false.

    That the FAA follow this model is shameful, particularly as the winner of the finals tournament get to compete in the World Club Championship for national league winners, and gets about $1mill in appearance fees for competing. Just because we were a colonial outpost and could make our own rules does not mean we can today. It is about time the World Club Championship organisers told Australia to get its head out of its behind and send the team that finishes at the top of the League, otherwise known as the League Champions to the world competition.

    The AFL have ripped people and clubs off for decades with their ‘Finals’ joke

  16. State of Origin failed in the AFL because Victorians only give a toss about NSW, and NSW doesn’t play AFL.

    South Australians hate the Power/Crows (cross out depending on allegiance) more than they hate Victorians; ditto for the Perth teams.

    Everyone Else vs. Collingwood might do well though.

  17. First double dissolution trigger.

    Come on Tony – spend your poltical capital.

    Whats that? Youre too scared of becoming the BIGGEST LOSER IN AUSTRALIAN HISTORY BY LOSING OFFICE WITHIN ONE YEAR?

    Im not surprised! youre really the worst PM ever. And I suspect you know it.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-greens-challenge-tony-abbott-to-call-double-dissolution-election-after-climate-bill-voted-down-again-in-senate-20140618-3ad14.html

  18. Puff – the World Club Championship is for continental champions, not national champions. I don’t believe an Australian team has been there since Australia joined Asia for football purposes.

  19. Rossmcg
    The national leagues of all the European countries thought they had it all sewn up by restricting the number of players from other European countries who could play in their club teams. This made sure local clubs employed local players.

    It suited everyone just fine, until it didn’t. Along came Mr Jean-Marc Bosman.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosman_ruling

    As sure as eggs, the AFL will have its own Bosman moment. It has come close already. Some young bloke is going to be bought by Perth when he lives in Sydney or vice-versa and he is going to ask why he should leave his family, girl or boyfriend, aging parents, or move his kids out of school when there is a perfectly good club around the corner desperate to keep employing him.

  20. Things may have changed with us joining Asia, but I assume our Champion still goes off to play the Asian clubs to try to qualify.

  21. lefty

    [First double dissolution trigger.

    Come on Tony – spend your poltical capital.]

    haha. I don’t think Abbot has any real interest in BEING a PM. It was just the aim to get there.

    I think if he “got” a knighthood (and enough money to be a rich north shore Sydney bludger) he would be happy to leave.

    The damage to the original, and fast fading, ideal of a Fair country, is not done by Abbot, he is just a silly puppet.

    The corporate elite that have bought the LNP (and some members of the ALP) are the real powers in Australia now.

    Our country desperately needs an electoral system that allows REAL alternatives to the corrupt corporately owned LNP and the sheltered workshop which is the ALP.

  22. Why would anyone want to hold the Grand final in Canberra…an over large(nice) country town?
    Might as well hold the grand final in Townsville or Towoomba
    or Ballarat

    The MCG is after all the one great stadium in the nation of world standard….only in Marvellous Melbourne…the national sport capital btw

  23. Puff, the A-League Champions earn a spot in the Asian Champions League (as does the Premiers if they’re not the same team) and the numbers show the finals system is popular. The fear is as Australians won’t accept a league without finals and that interest would wane towards the end of the season when the title face comes down to one or two teams. The numbers show the finals are popular with the decider doing the biggest number of any game on FTA and pay and 50k attending the big game. Might not be traditional but it is helping to sell the game in this country and it’s working.

  24. The MCG is the best place for the ALP grand final with all its history, it adds to the significances of winning the premiership.

    Interstates are able to win the right to a home final and due to the regular traveling, the interstate sides are more than able to adjust to playing on the G in the granny.

  25. In honour of the Socceroos courageous performance against The Netherlands, I am going to stop roughing up our Aussie Rules fans. 🙂

    At least for a while. :devil:

  26. Really, the average NRL game is watched by far fewer than the average AFL game, just how often is an NRL game played in front of 40 or 60k

    Not often.

  27. The LNP is saying the Commonwealth will NOT invest in even the most important works for the nation, if the State does not privatise something!!!!

    Its Abbott saying to the Sates “Sell your siht to my corporate mates and sponsors or else I’ll not give you any Fedeal money!!”

    It’s blackmail

  28. Rua n Nappin

    Any of the Common Law (eg negligence, from which duty of care derives) can be legislated away, in part or full as the parliament sees fit.

    Statute Law (by Parl) trumps Common Law (“judge made” or “case law”)