Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
  1. 144
    zoomster

    Mark Butler has sent out an email which – due to the quirks of yahoo’s new email system – I can’t paste here.

    He reaffirms that Labor is commited to a legal cap on carbon emissions, enforced via a market based mechanism, and support for renewable energy – he describes these as ‘two unshakeable pillars’.

    I am very pleased to read this!!

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:56 am

  2. He reaffirms that Labor is commited to a legal cap on carbon emissions, enforced via a market based mechanism, and support for renewable energy – he describes these as ‘two unshakeable pillars’.

    Excellent news.

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:03 am

  3. Just heard Morrison ranting about the asylum seeker court case.

    He really is a very ordinary bloke

    by rossmcg on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:09 am

  4. The problem with Labor is that they don’t follow through.

    And it’s showing on the polls, after that great speech that Shorten gave, it’s like is that all you got?

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:14 am

  5. zoid

    the problem with Labor is that it’s in Opposition…there’s a limit to how much ‘follow through’ one can do..

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:15 am

  6. AIIA Peak body “defends” higher prices (while they continue to rip us off):
    http://www.itnews.com.au/News/388241,aiia-defends-justifiably-higher-aussie-it-prices.aspx

    Using a typical defense of “The Australian Information and Industry Association, which represents over 400 IT suppliers in Australia bringing in around $20 billion, last week said in its submission to the current Harper review that markets were defined by product and geographic constraints, and it was therefore “typical and justifiable” that there may be different pricing in “distinct geographic markets”.”

    Which can be solved by using the Internet, that’s what it’s there for!

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:17 am

  7. @Zoomster/154

    PBO was created under the Labor government.

    The PBO allows the opposition to cost each of their polices.

    The Labor Party is a democratic party, is it not?

    Then it should also allow to decide what policies it should choose.

    Solar is a great start, it was also a successful policy.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:18 am

  8. http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:19 am

  9. Interesting article from Mumble on Australia’s electoral history. I think a few IPA and Liberal party types should have a read of these parts in particular.

    SOME of our national storytellers try to shoehorn European settlement in Australia into the United States narrative, of rugged individualism and pioneers with a visceral suspicion of government. Seen one new world country, seen them all.

    But Australian settlers were not like those earlier American ones. Ours looked to governments to do things for them, like build railways and telegraphs and set up rules within which to operate. They were generally in favour of collective solutions.

    Some of this came from material considerations, such as a sparse population over a huge land mass, thousands of miles from “home”, and some from the ideas that happened to be fashionable in England at the time.

    ….

    The settlers’ creed was not “give me liberty or give me death!”, it was “how can a good society be constructed in the new world, scientifically and rationally, ensuring the greatest good for the greatest number of people?” A Bentham-like formulation.

    And the answer was: through government. If this sometimes meant forcing people to do what’s good for them, so be it.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_australian_way/

    by Sir Mad Cyril on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:21 am

  10. Q&A is really boring, even by the standards of most television.

    Q&A is truly awful. It’s just The Drum, extended for a bit longer, with a barracking audience.

    It relies the whim of its host, high-school level debating tactics, front bar put-downs, contestants (sic) shouting over each other, twitter glitter rolling along the bottom of the screen, signifying nothing.

    It’s a game show really, mixed in with Reality TV, finished off with slogans and party lines.

    For 99% of the time Q&A is utterly unwatchable, no matter who’s talking… pro, anti, Labor, Greens or Liberal. It’s theater for the masses, looking for gotchas.

    Pfffft.

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:21 am

  11. Sorry, zoid, that didn’t make things any clearer at all…I still have no idea what it is you think Labor should be doing that it isn’t.

    …and, yes, Labor is a democratic party. Which means it consults with its membership. Which takes time. Which means that there can’t always be instant policy responses.

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:22 am

  12. Briefly

    Strongly agree on QANDA. I gave up watching it live a very long time ago, though occasionally, if there is someone worth noting on, I record it and watch it later. That’s a rare event.

    I find Tony Jones to be an absolute bore, a total airhead and someone who gives every impression that he likes to be the star of the show. I’m not sure what his politics are, but his impulses strike me as quite conservative, like most at the ABC.

    Psephos … (influence)

    Interesting, the word “flu” is cognate.

    Re: Morrison (Ross?)

    He’s not “ordinary”. He is extraordinary, but in a way that shames us all.

    David Morrison, whom I heard the other night speaking alongside Ms Jolie on gender inclusion, also strikes me as extraordinary, though this time in an entirely positive sense. It felt a bit weird hearing a high ranking military chap speak so passionately and eloquently in favour of inclusion, not just for women but more generally, but he impressed me greatly.

    by Fran Barlow on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:26 am

  13. Bw

    I particularly liked the bit about them getting the best planes cos they mess with their mates.

    The Sergeant married a WRAAF girl and immigrated here and ended up a clerk in the NSW Supreme Court, on the country circuit. He’s not long dead.

    The Officer went on to be a building magnate. He was a serious competitor to Alasdair McAlpine in the 60′s and 70′s. (Also dead now. I was executor of Claude’s will. He still had three pristine RAF uniforms – Formal, everyday and a flying suit complete with boots. The Imperial War Museum took the set with no hesitation. If you go there they are often on show in a glass case in the foyer.)

    I gathered from conversation that power diving a Mustang is not recommended at any time. In particular not after already taking a hit in the left over Turin.

    by CTar1 on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:26 am

  14. CTar1

    I gathered from conversation that power diving a Mustang is not recommended at any time. In particular not after already taking a hit in the left over Turin.

    Thanks for this. I’ll avoid these behaviours in future….

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:28 am

  15. Which can be solved by using the Internet, that’s what it’s there for!

    There are some constraints on pricing for overseas purchases.

    I charge extra for overseas sales by credit card as you (seller and buyer) get hit with a 4.5% exchange rate commission, a special “Overseas Transaction” charge from VISA or Mastercard and so on. This can add from 8%-10% to the purchase price.

    I ship physical goods, so there are Customs and freight charges involved there to for me, but in the paragraph above I wasn’t referring to costs for physical delivery. Just to transaction costs.

    Still, that’s only 10%.

    If the purchase is made with the local branch of the company, then no such transaction costs apply (except a small 1% or whatever credit card commission).

    But what I DO hate is when the price is listed in US dollars, already with an exchange rate commission mixed in.

    THEN you pay a penalty for the seller’s exchange rate commission, plus a FURTHER penalty for the credit card issuer’s exchange rate commission, plus all the extras like the ubiquitous “Overseas Transaction” commission. All these added up can cost, in total about an extra 20% of the base purchase price.

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:29 am

  16. Nice one, Sir Mad Cyril.

    On QandA… I prefer to get my rage on watching sport, because in that arena, sometimes particularly odious participants actually cop the hefty blows they deserve.

    by Libertarian Unionist on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:38 am

  17. QANDA is dreadful. It almost never happens that a panel member is intelligent, well informed and prepared to say something interesting.

    by Diogenes on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:38 am

  18. @Zoomster/160

    They had plenty of time to consult the party.

    @BB/164

    Yes, but this is referring to IT Software Pricing.

    Most software can be downloaded now via the Internet.

    Adobe software is mostly via the Cloud and is promoting that heavily.

    And you can now do that with Windows and OS/X operating systems.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:39 am

  19. zoid

    They had plenty of time to consult the party.

    As I still have no idea what you’re talking about, I can’t say whether this is so or not.

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:41 am

  20. For some odd reason the standout Q+A for me was the one with Jacqui Lambie on the panel. Comedy performance of the year. :-D

    by mikehilliard on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:41 am

  21. Infrastructure Spending boost is required, new report:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-15/state-of-the-regions-report-recommends-boosting-infrastructure/5524884

    It is also promoting Youth Employment in the report.

    But instead, this government is PUNISHING THE YOUTH.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:42 am

  22. @zoomster/168

    Then you don’t simply understand the problem then.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:43 am

  23. I think the reason Labor has lost some of the lead is because they refuse to attack some of the Coalition policies that aren’t very popular. Abbott has made a lot of gaffes which I believe Labor refuses to pick up on because they’re implicated in it too. If they make it clear of their stance against it (if they’re willing too), then they might maintain the course.

    First dog on the Moon sums it up really well:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/jun/06/first-dog-fish

    by Raaraa on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:44 am

  24. zoid

    obviously not, since you won’t tell me what it is.

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:44 am

  25. zoom

    Thanks for this. I’ll avoid these behaviours in future….

    They both must have been totally mad in their twenties. The odds against both lasting five years must’ve been huge.

    by CTar1 on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:46 am

  26. Just posting this up because I think it’s a great resource.

    This blog post lists the actual original physics that is the basis for the Greenhouse Effect…
    Some big names in there; Planck and Chandrasakher

    http://scienceofdoom.com/2014/06/15/on-uses-of-a-4-x-2-arrhenius-the-last-15-years-of-temperature-history-and-other-parodies/

    So it’s the physics that was built on the hypothesis tha Arrhenius proposed.

    This should be useful for characters like Rummel, Everything, and Turkey-head

    by Astrobleme on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:47 am

  27. Diogenes

    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    QANDA is dreadful. It almost never happens that a panel member is intelligent, well informed and prepared to say something interesting.

    ————————————————

    For me – its the *predictability* of what people, in particular the politicians, have to say. One can almost mouth the words and ideas they expouse before they say it – 100% along party lines. Given up on Q&A,Insiders etc for that reason alone

    by badcat on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:49 am

  28. Another false report from the Australian Government.

    THE Australian Government has issued an urgent warning to Aussies in Iraq to get out now as the crisis escalates and Obama sends in troops.

    The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has told News Corp that Australians in Iraq should “depart immediately” while commercial flights continue to operate.

    “The security situation throughout Iraq is very volatile and could deteriorate further with little warning,” a DFAT spokesperson said.

    “Due to the very challenging security environment we are unlikely to be able to provide consular assistance in Iraq at the current time.

    This wonderful country held successful elections only a few weeks ago. Although there were a few assassination attempts and a few leaders have gone into hiding, that should be seen on the context of what a great success the War has been.

    If they’ve have an election, that’s good enough for me to give Iraq a Diogenes A Grade as a country.

    It’s just a shame Australia is evacuating its citizens so they can’t witness the triumph.

    by Diogenes on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:52 am

  29. I don’t understand all of the comments re Q&A I love it and wouldn’t miss it for quids. It is certainly better than anything on commercial television

    Then I only watch the ABC or SBS don’t want to watch the Commercials and don’t have Fox or Sky.

    I was very impressed by Ed Husic last night. He has a lovely manner about him and in my view will go far in the ALP.

    by MTBW on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:59 am

  30. badcat

    Agree. It’s the utter banality and predictability that makes so boring. You do get to see a few shown up as lightweights like Feeney and Farrell but that’s not worth watching for.

    by Diogenes on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:03 pm

  31. For 99% of the time Q&A is utterly unwatchable, no matter who’s talking… pro, anti, Labor, Greens or Liberal.

    Spot on, BB.

    The inevitable outcome of putting a live audience in front of:

    1. politicians/celebrities/MSM superstars/Bloviators-R-Us

    2. swellheaded control freak and audience-slut Tony Jones.

    *Cheers to Bludgers for a plethora of exceptionally interesting comments this morning– – - – - – - – - got to step out for lunch now.* :)

    by Atticus on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:05 pm

  32. Some time ago Possum analysed the relationship between the netsats of the PM and the LOTO and the 2PP.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/09/29/the-primary-dynamic/

    This part of his article:

    So the vote of the government is intrinsically linked to satisfaction levels of the Prime Minister in the general case, and the public’s satisfaction or otherwise with the opposition leader of the day is really neither here nor there.
    It’s all about the government/PM dynamic as far as this goes, and how the opposition strategies and tactics operate within that constraint.
    So if you tear down the PM, the government’s vote will go with it – hardly rocket science – but it explains a lot.

    According to Newspoll Abbott’s last 6 netsats have been [most recent last]:
    40:50 -10
    40:47 -7
    35:56 -21
    30:60 -30
    33:59 -26
    30:60 -31

    Prognosis?

    by fredex on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:07 pm

  33. Actually the current Abbott netsat is 30:61 -31.

    by fredex on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:10 pm

  34. Part of QandA’s problem is that they have too many panel members with usually one that has little to no knowledge or interest in most of what is being talked about.

    The show could be improved if the panel members were more relevant to the topics discussed.

    The questions tend to be overly predictable and some of the issues could be retired as they have been recycled over and over.

    The show lacks freshness and is increasingly dull

    by mexicanbeemer on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:10 pm

  35. mex

    I would agree on the “too many panel members”.

    by MTBW on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:23 pm

  36. fredex 181

    A classic, must-read blog post on the minutiae of political opinion polls, if that is indeed possible. Abbott’s current netsat suggest a recovery in the polls is not imminent, but neither is an election.

    by NathanA on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:27 pm

  37. dave @ 149

    Great link to a great article. I hope someone shoves it in front of Abbott, Morrison and Bishop so that they don’t feed Prabowa’s campaign…

    oh, wait…

    by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:32 pm

  38. I think the reason Labor has lost some of the lead is because they refuse to attack some of the Coalition policies that aren’t very popular.

    A fall of 1% is possibly noise. Pretty meaningless.

    It only signifies that Labor has stopped marching ever upwards into giddy heights around the 60s.

    The other thing it signifies is that Abbott’s posturing overseas has had no effect, as his rating has slipped by 5. That IS significant.

    The Australian can write this up as a “pox on both their houses” however much it likes, but the nett result is that Labor is is maintaining a lead that reverses the results of the last election.

    If anyone thinks it’s all going to return to “normal”, and the punters are all going to switch back, and will vote for the hangman coming to get them (now that they know that rope in his hand is for them)they’re wrong in my opinion.

    What it means is that a DD is still out of the question. This forces Abbott – no matter his posturing and protesting (we’ve heard all these threats before) – to do deals, something he said he’d never do because, frankly, he’s shithouse at doing deals.

    Every time Joe says there’s nothing – nothing at all – wrong with the Budget, it will only make the mob more inclined to press home the point that they do not share his opinion.

    If Abbott declaring that something like “a world wide consortium of conservative governments” is going to fight climate change doesn’t cut it with the great unwashed, then nothing will.

    And even if the Carbon Tax/ETS IS repealed, then what? What’s his next trick? And the next?

    This is a bloke that had very little ammunition to start with, wasting it advancing to Moscow. Now he has to survive the retreat (which is what did in Napoleon and You_Know_Who).

    If Bill Shorten – by doing not very much at all – can get Labor to where it is now, then give him a chance to do something positive and THEN let’s see what happens.

    Now is not the time for flipping the switch to vaudeville. The crowd up on the stage is fluffing lines and forgetting cues without any help from the audience, or the understudies. Let them do it and take 53-47 as an indication that they are.

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:32 pm

  39. @181

    Prognosis?

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    by mikehilliard on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:38 pm

  40. I totally agree with the emerging consensus that Q and A is an utter waste of electricity. I haven’t watched more than a few fleeting moments of this waste of taxpayer’s coin in years, annoyed and irritated as I am by Tony Jones’ antics in always attempting to intrude himself into the discussions, rather than, as the best facilitators of this programme format do, allow the guests to make their case, and to skillfully moderate the group (get it? … moderate?) to ensure that all participants have a fair opportunity to respond and defend their positions, or not, as some idiots regularly manage on Q and A without Jones managing to point out the obvious falsehoods or misrepresentations.

    The hooting and howling of the audience is a function of Jones and the ABC’s inability to manage the format, encouraging and allowing as they do the takeover of the show by loonies and illiterates – and these questions are supposedly vetted before hand?

    It’s a circus, complete with clowns and jugglers, acrobats and animal acts, and should be treated as such, that is, as a tired and stodgy anachronism not worthy of our attention in the 21st century.

    by The Big Ship on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:39 pm

  41. Prognosis?

    Deader than the duck I had for dinner last night – but he’ll zombie on for a while yet, wreaking fear and havoc among the population and destroying many of the institutions that make this a good country to live in.

    by Libertarian Unionist on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:42 pm

  42. Prognosis?

    Prognosis negative!

    by Sir Mad Cyril on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:50 pm

  43. All I know about Essential Media is voters don’t trust this government on international relations

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/06/17/essential-voters-dont-trust-abbott-to-make-a-good-impression-overseas/

    by spur212 on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:55 pm

  44. I see a lot of comments about QandA are missing the point.

    It does have influence because it has an audience that likes it. An audience that has few posting on PB just as Bolt has few Bludgers watching him.

    Few that is that are posting about it.

    I think the format can be improved. A new host and a US style talk show format. Think PBS.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:00 pm

  45. MTBW and Mexican

    Definitely agree that QandA has too many panellists as they strive, as always in ABC, for ‘balance’. And Jones is too dominating to be a good moderator. The questions they choose are usually too obvious.

    But it often provides a little insight into character which I find interesting. Husic was very lucid last night. We could have done without the academic – there’s always one person who is like an extra thumb.

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:00 pm

  46. “@ABCNews24: Watch NOW: #Iraq’s Ambassador to Australia Mouayed Saleh speaking in Canberra http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #abcnews24”

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:02 pm

  47. “@Leroy_Lynch: Essential Poll: TPP ALP 54(0) L/NP 46(0). Primaries ALP 41(+1) L/NP 39(+2) GRN 9(0) PUP 5(-1) Others 7(-1) http://t.co/rYT99V9KE4 #auspol”

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:06 pm

  48. So much for the self-proclaimed “very successful overseas trip”!

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:13 pm

  49. So what’s with Morgan and Newspoll if Essential Poll is out of whack?

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:15 pm

  50. How much money was taken out while he was treasurer?

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-budget-2014-1b-to-help-those-in-need-20140617-zs9v5.html

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:19 pm

« | »