Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. I suspect the difference is in the method of polling. Something about phone & SMS polling make people respond in a more knee jerk fashion, so quicker swings after events, and the indie vote rises – “to hell with both sides”. Face to face polling has its own issues, with people giving answers they expect to be well received (maybe).

    Whereas online panel polling, where you answer political polling questions along with a bunch of other questions, seems to make people narrow their choices to the two main serious contenders, almost as if its closer to a real serious voting decision. This is just a guess, but it would explain a bit.

    by Leroy Lynch on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:22 pm

  2. lizzie

    I agree with you on the academic and maybe there could be fewer panelists.

    I think Husic has talent. I could see him in a leadership position in the years ahead. He has a certain class about him.

    by MTBW on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:22 pm

  3. spur

    That link to polling you posted show 2013 figures.

    by MTBW on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:26 pm

  4. From our friends at the BBC:

    "Western Australia has seen climate change happen faster and earlier than almost anywhere else on the planet. In the last 15 years the water from rain into our dams has dropped to one-sixth of what it used to be before that," said Sue Murphy, chief executive of the Western Australia Water Corporation.

    if only the abc could do journalism like this article which I just read on the BBC app on my phone, but no the abc would rather be a Murdoch-lite echo chamber – no climate change for them at best they’d lead the article with a deniers mantra something like:

    As a cold front drenches Perth in buckets of cold water there are some who still talk of climate change despite all the evidence climate change is rubbish ...

    by WeWantPaul on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:29 pm

  5. Reducing the panel members might allow for more detailed answers, currently when someone is in the middle of a good detailed answer Jones cuts them off with lets go to another panel member.

    It might free the show up and with less panel members it might be possible to have more special themes.

    by mexicanbeemer on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:35 pm

  6. MTBW

    Right link. They used the wrong image

    by spur212 on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:35 pm

  7. Husic has proven himself to be a good communicator, he is also a good campaigner as seen on his inquiry into software pricing.

    by mexicanbeemer on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:36 pm

  8. Good suggestion beemer!

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:39 pm

  9. WWP

    Yeah the rain on the roof is great right now!

    But it is June 17 and this is shaping as only the second significant wet day of the month.

    That is not the way it used to be as rain goes

    by rossmcg on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:41 pm

  10. Unsurprising

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-mps-fail-to-reverse-partys-asylum-processing-stance-20140617-3aalr.html

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:42 pm

  11. http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/downloading-300-gigabytes-is-small-time-in-the-world-of-pirating-20140616-zs9nk.html
    http://www.itnews.com.au/News/387813,iinet-urges-consumers-to-lobby-govt-on-piracy-changes.aspx

    Another issue Coalition Party rearing it’s ugly head into private lives of.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:43 pm

  12. WWP

    Yeah the rain on the roof is great right now!

    But it is June 17 and this is shaping as only the second significant wet day of the month.

    That is not the way it used to be as rain goes

    Yes but modlib rummel and other deniers will observe that Perth is infinitely wetter today than yesterday therefore climate change is rubbish.

    by WeWantPaul on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:43 pm

  13. But… but… Husic is a Muslim!

    I don’t give a rat’s arse if he’s Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Zoroastrian, or Satan worshipper. But there are a lot of folks (of the cultural conservative variety) that would go rabid at the thought of a PM swearing on the Quran. Personally, I think it’d be pretty cool….

    by kakuru on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:43 pm

  14. Sue Boyce praising Bill Shorten’s work on disability on Capital Hill

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:46 pm

  15. Labor will not oppose the Green Army but has put the government on notice that it will be very closely watching its rollout and operation.

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:53 pm

  16. @BK/214

    They are showing toothless tigers they are.

    Putting the government on notice? pfft.

    That will not do anything, Green Army has no Commonwealth Protection.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:55 pm

  17. zoid
    The Greens are now speaking against the Green Army of novices supplanting the budget for proper sustainable interventions by NRM and LandCare organisations and carried out by trained and highly motivated people.

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:01 pm

  18. Essential has ALP primary at 41, GRN 9, LNP 39 Oth 7, PuP 5

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:01 pm

  19. Tony Abott’s Chutzpah knows no bounds

    He is laughing at all the Lying Friar jibes by beginning each Question Time answer from the Opposition with “the members question is all lies….”

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:03 pm

  20. Work for the Dole and Green Army just tax payers money given to big business Pyramid scam:
    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/archive/dole

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:05 pm

  21. I note that since early 2014 the Govts primary has crashed, the ALP primary has stagnated and ‘Others’ primary has soared.

    It should be clear to the duopolists in the parliament that they’re failing and that they should change their agenda’s.

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:07 pm

  22. The only eyebrow raising Q&A was the one with Rudd and Robert Manne on the same show (I think) in Mayish 2011 where:

    (a) the former indiscreetly intimated that Julia Gillard was equivocal about some aspects of government policy;
    (b) the latter accepted possible merit in offshore processing.

    by shellbell on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:08 pm

  23. Why has Labor slipped back in Queensland?

    by Toorak Toff on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:08 pm

  24. @renew_economy: Australian coal plants obsolete, uneconomic in low-carbon race http://t.co/O4JtNJg0i9

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:09 pm

  25. I’ve tuned into QT to see if the ALP will stand up and hold Scott Morrison to account for his inept management of our offshore detention/processing facilities that have degenerated into violent/death camps.

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:10 pm

  26. Good question from Bandt

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:14 pm

  27. “@SamCD01: Member for Melbourne to PM: When your Budget takes away all their income, what should young job seekers do, not pay rent or go without food?”

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:15 pm

  28. I’ve also tuned into QT to see if the ALP will stand up and hold Greg Hunt to account for his sabotaging of the nations budget to 2020 by between $24bn-$40bn and paying lip service to pollution/climate change by repealing the CEP.

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:16 pm

  29. Retweeted by newmatilda
    Michael Richardson ‏@richardson_m_a 15m

    Axing life-changing services for Indigenous parolees to save $500k. Petty politics. @MaxChalmers90 in @newmatilda http://bit.ly/1qmTbXV

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:16 pm

  30. @oliverlaughland: . @BarnsGreg says Scott Morrison’s comments on SIEV 221 court case violate the Commonwealth Legal Services directions http://t.co/hpRtdeZ6m4

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:18 pm

  31. @Rex/224

    This answers your question:

    Lady Van Badham ‏@vanbadham 26m

    Absolutely disgusted by @RichardMarlesMP @billshortenmp ongoing support for INTERNMENT CAMPS. What’s WRONG with you?! http://trib.al/Wo9NAK3

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:18 pm

  32. “@LatikaQT: Marles booted. #qt”

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:19 pm

  33. Mathious should be looking at his own budget, he did it:

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 31s

    Labor at it again. Just making it up as they go. Reducing spending growth still involves growth in spending. No wonder their Budget in s …

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:20 pm

  34. Budget tightening is worse than the RBA expected

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/budget-tightening-worse-than-rba-expected-20140617-3aagh.html

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:21 pm

  35. Lots of seats in Queensland but the Tories are ahead in 19 to Labor’s 9. Hard to win nationally with that imbalance.

    by Toorak Toff on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:23 pm

  36. zoidlord

    I support the Rudd Govts no visa/offshore resettlement policy as it has slowed/stopped mass drownings at sea.

    I don’t support the offshore facilities being left to degenerate into violent/death camps.

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:23 pm

  37. A minister is within his rights to pour scorn on a very, very speculative claim for damages such as that brought by George Newhouse who has announced the claim with some fanfare in advance of its filing

    by shellbell on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:24 pm

  38. Essential Research report:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/06/Essential-Report_140616.pdf

    by William Bowe on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  39. Of course there’s nothing inconsistent between saying that Q&A is a waste of space and that it is more intelligent than most of commercial TV. (AFAE very little of commercial TV actually tries to be intelligent.)

    It does have influence because it has an audience that likes it. An audience that has few posting on PB just as Bolt has few Bludgers watching him.

    But what precisely is the nature of this influence? It wouldn’t surprise me if this Q&A audience consisted disproportionately of rusteds, and so its influence in terms of persuasion was limited (although perhaps more in terms of issue-framing or personality-boosting).

    by Martin B on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  40. @Rex/235

    As we seen, Detention Centers are death camps in itself, due to the poor treatment by Contractors and lack of proper funding.

    Here is a few Corporate welfare that Labor/Greens needs to get rid of or get rid of over time.

    1. Negative Gearing.
    2. Capital Gains.
    3. Super Tax Concessions.
    4. Diesel Rebate.
    5. Novated Leasing.
    6. Family Trusts.
    7. Tax Minimisation Schemes.
    8. Corporate Tax Avoidance.
    9. Vehicle Depreciation.

    This is Corporate welfare.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  41. Roy Morgan ‏@roymorganonline 2m

    ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence edged up modestly, rising 1.0% to 103.2 in the week ending 15 June. http://ow.ly/y7h2N #ausbiz

    Retweeted by Greens
    Peter Whish-Wilson ‏@SenatorSurfer 5m

    Here’s our dissenting report on #FoFA reforms, Libs attempt to protect enormous bank profits. http://bit.ly/Greens_dissent_on_FoFA … pic.twitter.com/SGpoObnfNA

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:33 pm

  42. Of course there’s nothing inconsistent between saying that Q&A is a waste of space and that it is more intelligent than most of commercial TV.

    The average wombat is more intelligent than commercial TV.

    by Steve777 on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:37 pm

  43. Labor needs to do a SSO even if that means being shut down by the Liberals

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  44. Labor has more than 50% of the @PP vote in every state and territory except Queensland, where it’s only 46.6% despite the shenanigans of the state government.

    I know they’re odd up there but this does seems passing strange.

    by Toorak Toff on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  45. In MH 370 news , it looks like those pings really did lead us astray from the place most likely.

    Malaysian MH370: Inmarsat confident on crash 'hotspot'

    The UK satellite company Inmarsat has told the BBC that the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines jet has yet to go to the area its scientists think is the plane's most likely crash site...............the Ocean Shield ship never got to the Inmarsat hotspot because it picked up signals some distance away that it thought were coming from the jet's flight recorders.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27870467

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:42 pm

  46. 2PP vote

    by Toorak Toff on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:42 pm

  47. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
    Issued on Tuesday 17 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

    Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.

    Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014.

    For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-average daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:43 pm

  48. WWP

    Yes but modlib rummel and other deniers will observe that Perth is infinitely wetter today than yesterday therefore climate change is rubbish.

    It annoys me when Mod puts words in my mouth – which is frequently, whenever I point out Mod’s bad habits – let’s not copy it.

    The only thing, as far as I’m aware, that Mod uses to question AGW – and i.m.o. Mod does so fairly cautiously, with no explicit rejections of AGW – is a perceived flattening of global temperatures*. Also, it goes both ways – perhaps not symetrically – rummel was on the receiving end of talk about lack of snow in Thredbo.

    What Mod does throw up is a lot of unicorns over the politics. A superficial similarity between Labor and Liberal based on their stated reduction targets. Labor’s unsteady meanderings towards its goal. Assertions of the insignificance of Australia’s actions compared with other countries – why should we get ahead of the pack, and now that others in the pack seems to be moving ahead, why should we do anything anyway. That kind of stuff.

    * and if surface temperature graphs were the only reasoning we had available to us – which they’re not, as pointed out by Astrobleme earlier – such questioning might fall on this side of being reasonable.

    by DisplayName on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:45 pm

  49. Not long left in QT for the ALP to hold Scott Morrison and Greg Hunt to account – 20 minutes…

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:50 pm

  50. Here is a few Corporate welfare that Labor/Greens needs to get rid of or get rid of over time.

    1. Negative Gearing.

    Agree but it needs to be done gradually to prevent collapse of house prices – I would favour perhaps a limit on the number of properties or the maximum amount of deduction which can be negaticley geared. If this was set at a very high amunt to start it would dwindle gradually due to inflation

    2. Capital Gains.

    Not sure what you mean

    3. Super Tax Concessions.

    Yes

    4. Diesel Rebate.
    5. Novated Leasing.

    Yes, yes, yes

    6. Family Trusts.

    Partly but you would need to consider genuine family trusts ie when a family group woorks a farm or it is set up tp protects a disable kid etc.

    7. Tax Minimisation Schemes.
    8. Corporate Tax Avoidance.

    yes, yes

    9. Vehicle Depreciation

    Tread carefully hers because there are lots of people for whom vehicles are fundamental to earning an income. Take two identically qualified people caring for older people. One catches the bus to work at the local aged care centre, the other drives to three or four private homes each day using own car. Vehicle depreciation is perfectly reasonable in this case.

    by daretotread on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:51 pm

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