Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. Interesting tactic of Abbott, probably on the behest of Credlin, to embellish his PPL answers by referring to Bill Shorten’s staff.

    Credlin is clever. Getting him to attack the memes about him (liar, under Credlin’s thumb) directly in his answers, blaming the Opposition for doing the same.

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:51 pm

  2. @roymorganonline: Morgan Poll 2PP (June 16, 2014): ALP 55.5%, L-NP 44.5% http://t.co/0V18VAvjaR #auspol

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:53 pm

  3. zoomster @ 71:

    A bunch of over-eager Jonquils have come out in my garden – normally not arriving until late August at the earliest.

    by caf on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:55 pm

  4. So much for the self-proclaimed “very successful overseas trip”!

    Wankery on full show.

    by CTar1 on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:57 pm

  5. @DTR/249

    Yes, partly is why I said over time, but I suppose I could say to whom it would apply to as well.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:59 pm

  6. I think the rise in Consumer Confidence is due to the fact it’s mid-year tax time for businesses.

    Interestintly, ATO is “cracking down” on tax claims:
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/tech-properties-in-atos-taxtime-firing-line-20140616-3a7d9.html

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:02 pm

  7. The best question today was the one Abbott did not answer.

    Turnbull show so no SSO

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:06 pm

  8. The Tories are making up ground in both the UK and Canada. It does help to be in government.

    by Toorak Toff on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:13 pm

  9. Did Hockey claw back a point while Abbott was o/s?

    by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:15 pm

  10. Disappointing no questions from the ALP regarding Morrisons Manus violent/death camp and Hunts $24-$0bn sabotaging of the budget and pollution/climate change lip service.

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:16 pm

  11. #259

    $24bn-$40bn

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:17 pm

  12. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 9m

    Turnbull joking about not having power for things. Don’t mention the #NBN nodes in Melbourne… #qt

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:18 pm

  13. Caf and others
    _________________
    Visiting my son on the weekend,he has daffodils out in his Geelong garden despite the cold weather…months ahead of the normal time

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:18 pm

  14. Retweeted by Scott Ludlam
    The West Australian ‏@thewest_com_au 13m

    WestBusiness: Buru Energy gets nod to frack for gas in the Kimberley without an EPA assessment. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/national/a/24256853/buru-to-gas-frack-without-epa-assessment/

    So no CBA for Policies, no EPA assessments either.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:23 pm

  15. I cannot remember the name of the show that somehow morphed into Q&A but it was great.

    One topic with several experts and others on a panel answering questions etc.

    It was similar to Insight. The episode on climate change was well worth watching.

    For some strange reason they changed the format and instead of covering one topic well, went for the scatter gun approach.

    by Dee on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:24 pm

  16. If Abbott argues that the public service receive a version of his PPL then so should all employees, by extension will he increase super contributions for all to 15%.

    by TaxiLurker on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:25 pm

  17. A bunch of over-eager Jonquils have come out in my garden – normally not arriving until late August at the earliest.

    Ditto here in NW-ish Sydney, actually.

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:28 pm

  18. According to Wikipedia, Christopher Pyne and Malcolm Turnbull are the most frequent guests on Q&A, followed by Tanya Plibersek and Bill Shorten. In fact, the list of most appearances is dominated by politicians. No wonder I can’t stand it!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q%26A_(Australian_talk_show)

    by Sir Mad Cyril on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:28 pm

  19. @Sir Mad/267

    So it’s not really a Q&A Show then, it’s more of a political wind bag to blame the opposing party?

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:32 pm

  20. In the US Fox News decides that Iraq is Obama’s doing…and absolves George Bush of any blame
    ________________________________
    this from an excellkent site which keeps an eye on the worst offences of the Murdoch media,notably Fox media

    http://www.newshounds.us/fox_s_maccallum_presents_george_w_bush_as_iraq_genius_06162014

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:34 pm

  21. Queensland Premier defends embattled Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie

    Vlad the Conveyancer is now officially embattled, I give him 6 weeks. :lol:

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:35 pm

  22. The whole concept of Q&A is flawed, but it doesn’t help having an obnoxious host, and at least one obnoxious guest per show.
    Of course it only takes one obnoxious idiot to ruin the show, because as in the rest of life, often the most verbose actually have the least worthwhile to say.

    A good example was Jean Kittson a couple of weeks ago.

    The ABC policy of including at least one extreme right winger per show doesn’t help either.

    by adrian on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:37 pm

  23. I think that Q&A is symptomatic of everything that’s wrong with ABC news and current affairs in general.

    by adrian on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:39 pm

  24. I’ve saved *twaddles* words to a post I made from last week

    - I hope he is right ( even if I think he is a arrogant rightwing tosser ) – but questions are being asked in todays news of the situation …

    absolutetwaddle

    Posted Friday, June 13, 2014 at 4:02 pm | Permalink
    badcat

    “It eerily reminds me of the fall of Saigon in 1975 ….. will we see the helicopters on the roof of the US Embassy in Baghdad ?????

    absolutetwaddle :

    Ha! Hahaha

    No. No such thing will happen. However, I can see why the anti-war left are basically cumming in their pants at the image of wild-eyed Jihadists/’anti-imperialists’ chasing America out of Iraq. They’ve always been prone to fantasy and wish fulfilment.

    ———————————————————

    Iraq: What if Baghdad falls?

    A week after Islamic insurgents launched their attack on Iraq, the West faces the prospect of the fall of Baghdad

    EVENTS in Iraq are unfolding fast. It may be necessary for the West to act far quicker than it expects.

    The Obama administration would be desperate to avoid the spectre of scenes such as the Vietnam War’s helicopter evacuation of the US embassy in Saigon, the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis, or the bloodshed of Somalia’s Black Hawk down disaster.

    http://www.news.com.au/world/a-week-after-islamic-insurgents-launched-their-attack-on-iraq-the-west-faces-the-prospect-of-the-fall-of-baghdad/story-fndir2ev-1226957314557

    by badcat on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:40 pm

  25. zoomster, Caf and BB. The winter weather around Australia this year has been unseasonably warm. This comes on top of a decade or more when, on the whole, the temperatures throughout the year have tended to be above the historical average most of the time.

    I have personally found all this quite disturbing. I have also been reading relevant scientific publications and find those to be, on the whole, extremely disturbing.

    What mystifies me is how the climate change deniers can be so smugly self-satisfied. Most of them have children and grandchildren. Don’t they ever feel just the slightest bit worried that it might all be true and, if so, what does this mean?

    The attitude of most right-wing politicians to climate change is enough reason alone not to take seriously anything that they say about any subject. They are ostriches and – if history books are still going to be written in the difficult future humanity is going to experience – they are going to get a very poor write-up indeed: I suspect, about on a par with WWII collaborators in occupied countries.

    I am on the political right in terms of my views on economic policy, but the attitude of most Coalition politicians to the issue of climate change – and a growing range of other issues – makes it completely impossible for me to consider voting for them at this time. I sincerely hope their collective position changes soon.

    by meher baba on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:42 pm

  26. Australia has just had its two hottest years on record so the jonquils are on the ball.

    by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:45 pm

  27. The ABC policy of including at least one extreme right winger per show doesn’t help either.

    Apart from Bob Ellis – who could be counted as “obnoxious”, albeit at least wittily so – I have never seen the equivalent of Christopher Pyne or that Jerk-Who-Was-On-Two-Weeks-Ago (some male, right-wing magazine editor with blonde hair, whose name mercifully escapes me) on Q&A from the Left.

    Most of the Lefties at least try to argue a case, rather than badger their fellow contestants (sic) by shouting over the top of them, never letting anyone make any point that goes unopposed.

    I might be biased here, but can anyone nominate an obnoxious Leftie tjat’s been on Q&A (“obnoxious” here defined as “say foolish things, laughed at by the audience in embarrassment and general makes a complete tit of his or her self)?

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:45 pm

  28. Rex 220. Newspoll has others up a fair bit – have a look at Essential. LNP down 6.5% since ellction ALP up 6.5% since election. Greens and others basically unchanged – about 11 cf 17 in Newspoll. What to think?

    by Wakefield on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:47 pm

  29. Can someone explain to me how Joel Fitzgibbon maintains an Opposition front bench seat after years of undermining that tore down the former Govt ?

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:48 pm

  30. zoidlord

    I think someone else suggested that it would be a much better show if they ditched the politicians. To be fair to the politicians, it’s a bit much to expect a them to sit there and ignore attacks on their party from their opposition on the panel, or indeed the audience.

    by Sir Mad Cyril on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:48 pm

  31. “@AdamBandt: Just sought urgent debate in Parl demanding Aust rule out further military intervention in Iraq. Lib/Lab joined together to vote it down.”

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:49 pm

  32. AMA President ‏@amapresident 1m

    MBS rebate rise “inadequate” | 6minutes: http://www.6minutes.com.au/news/latest-news/mbs-rebate-rise-inadequate#.U5_Wmc53zK0.twitter … via @6_minutes

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:50 pm

  33. When you need more islands to stake your territorial claims and to base surveillance equipment, then you create some.

    China has been moving sand onto reefs and shoals to add several new islands to the Spratly archipelago, in what foreign officials say is a new effort to expand the Chinese footprint in the South China Sea. The officials say the islands will be able to support large buildings, human habitation and surveillance equipment, including radar.

    The island-building has alarmed Vietnam, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations that also claim sovereignty over the Spratlys.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/17/world/asia/spratly-archipelago-china-trying-to-bolster-its-claims-plants-islands-in-disputed-waters.html?hp&_r=0

    by citizen on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:51 pm

  34. Wakefield

    In the past I’ve questioned whether the Essential respondent pool changes that much… ?

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 3:51 pm

  35. Bushfire Bill

    Germaine Greer. She’s the height of obnoxiousness and hypocrisy.

    by absolutetwaddle on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:01 pm

  36. Climate change denialists might heed the words of Oliver Cromwell:

    I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.

    Letter to the General Assembly Church of Scotland, 3 August 1650.

    They didn’t listen, but he showed ‘em!

    by Toorak Toff on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:01 pm

  37. Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 5m

    .@senatormilne has just brought the clean energy finance corporation on – #senate debate will begin shortly #auspol

    Should be interesting.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:02 pm

  38. Motion in Senate to bring about first DD by the Greens

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:02 pm

  39. This NYT article Democrats see winning issue in carbon plan reckons that Obama’s push for measures to limit carbon emissions will prove beneficial for Democrat contenders in forthcoming elections.

    by citizen on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:02 pm

  40. Sorry first trigger for a DD. Rushed the typing

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:03 pm

  41. So apparently it’s not important enough, they leaving it till tomorrow?

    Retweeted by Greens
    Christine Milne ‏@senatormilne 11m

    Clean Energy Finance Corporation Abolition Bill 2013 now to take precedence in Govt business tomorrow. Time to save CEFC. #auspol

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:09 pm

  42. Markets are down again due to Iron Ore Price.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:12 pm

  43. This could be extremely interesting!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-17/report-into-alleged-cia-torture-set-to-be-released/5529824

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:15 pm

  44. This could be extremely interesting!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-17/report-into-alleged-cia-torture-set-to-be-released/5529824

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:15 pm

  45. Caf and BB

    Re jonquils: my mum has a big Rose garden, well over 100 bushes, and while it doesn’t get cold enough in Perth to send them fully dormant, at This time of the year they usually are looking a bit ratty, dropping leaves and with little new growth.

    Hers are still blooming, literally. It is only in the last week it so that we have had a run of sub 5C minimums, most un characteristic for June.

    by rossmcg on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:16 pm

  46. From Senator Milne

    Dear Guytaur,

    In 2003, John Howard followed the US and sent Australian troops into an illegal invasion of Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of Australians took to the streets in protest, but Howard refused to listen.

    Democracies around the world do not allow just one person to decide to take the country to war. In the USA it’s a vote of Congress. In the UK it’s a vote in the House of Commons. In Finland it’s the Eduskunta. In Germany it’s the Bundestag.

    It’s time Australia caught up. Support the Greens’ War Powers Bill so that Parliament decides, not the Prime Minister.

    Life and death decisions about sending young Australian men and women to war should not be left in the hands of one person.

    Decisions of such magnitude deserve scrutiny and debate by all of our elected representatives. Our War Powers Bill will make that the law. Please add your support.

    With the announcement today that the US is sending in troops to Iraq, Australians are watching the current turmoil in Iraq – a legacy of the illegal Bush/Blair/Howard invasion – and are wondering how we can help. Tony Abbott may think it’s as simple as ‘goodies’ and ‘baddies’ but the reality is much more complex. But if military intervention were a cure-all, we wouldn’t be witnessing the current atrocities in the first place.

    That’s why Parliament needs to decide, not Tony Abbott. Please add your voice.

    Parliament has wavered over this bill for years. It’s more important than ever now.

    Thanks for standing with us,

    Christine

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:21 pm

  47. AbsoluteTwaddle

    Germaine Greer. She’s the height of obnoxiousness and hypocrisy.

    I wouldn’t call her a lefty these days. Maybe in the 1970s-80s. Non-conservative I suppose.

    We lefties have reason as our primary tool and inclusion and respect for others as goals, so being obnoxious is harder for us. Not impossible mind you, but a lot harder. That’s one reason you tend not to have leftwing counterparts to shock jocks. That, and the fact that business prefers reactionaries.

    by Fran Barlow on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:24 pm

  48. rossmcg

    My yellow rose had not raised a bloom in anger this summer and was amazed to see half a dozen blooms pop open a couple of weeks back. The super hot chillies absolutely hate winter but were producing ripe pods until about a week back. Normally very forlorn and ratty by the time June comes around and definitely zero pods.

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:26 pm

  49. BB

    That rsoul was Rownan Dean, a male Judith Sloan only worse.

    by psyclaw on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:28 pm

  50. I would put Germaine Greer into the “ageing, borish has been whose relevance has long ago departed” category.

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:29 pm

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