Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. Labor loses votes every time asylum seekers are in the news for any reason, the last thing they want to do is waste valuable Question Time minutes reminding everyone they “lost control of the borders” instead of focusing on the budget.

    There’s no way Labor wins the optics on that one.

    by teh_drewski on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:30 pm

  2. Badcat…yes that post of Twaddles is almost as insulting as that master of the insult…Psephos

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:36 pm

  3. M Smith News has gone into meltdown I tells ya, petitions are demanding video of today’s RC is provided by the Commission. Plots to hide the, nasty, nasty man who said nasty things to Caffy, from scrutiny by internet.

    Its a plot put about by those who hate Caffy to blow up the RC’s computer (it overheated apparently – climate change Mike?).

    The transcript will be up tomorrow for the sane in our community.

    Also tomorrow is Caffy’s day.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:37 pm

  4. teh_drewski

    Labor has lost votes on the issue because ever since Howard became PM they have let the LNP define the debate.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:39 pm

  5. teh_drewski #300

    Are you seriously suggesting Scott Morrison deserves a free pass for his mismanaging the Manus facility into a violent/death camp ?

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:39 pm

  6. That rsoul was Rownan Dean, a male Judith Sloan only worse.

    Rowan Dean: Hired gun for whenever you need a right-wing ratbag to provide “balance” on a panel.

    by kakuru on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:41 pm

  7. psyclaw@298

    BB

    That rsoul was Rownan Dean, a male Judith Sloan only worse.

    That Canadian academic lawyer type is not real flash either.

    He is made even worse by his grating voice.

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:42 pm

  8. ruawake: who is Caffy? Thank you.

    by Dame Angie Dakas on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:42 pm

  9. ruawake: who is Caffy? Thank you.

    kathy jackson in marco bolano speak.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:44 pm

  10. teh_drewski

    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Labor loses votes every time asylum seekers are in the news for any reason, the last thing they want to do is waste valuable Question Time minutes reminding everyone they “lost control of the borders” instead of focusing on the budget.

    There’s no way Labor wins the optics on that one.

    As difficult as it is to accept, this is a true position. On the question of AS, both major parties were united on this issue until John Howard came along. From then on Labor could never win this debate and they never will. It does matter how soft or how hard Labor becomes, the Liberals have sole ownership on this issue and they never going to let go.

    by adam abdool on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:45 pm

  11. teh_drewski@300

    Labor loses votes every time asylum seekers are in the news for any reason, the last thing they want to do is waste valuable Question Time minutes reminding everyone they “lost control of the borders” instead of focusing on the budget.

    There’s no way Labor wins the optics on that one.

    I’m not real happy with those Labor members raising it in Caucus either.

    They get to feel really chuffed about how noble and humane they are. They in effect are assisting this gang to remain in office by doing what you say.

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:45 pm

  12. Kathy Jackson charged the HSU an $8,000 honorarium to attend each union meeting. Despite being paid $280,000 a year by the same union and it was her job to attend meetings.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:46 pm

  13. You’d be tearing your hair out if you were involved in Essendon in any way.

    ESSENDON paid hush money to its former fitness guru Dean Robinson for almost six months after suspending him in the wake of the supplements scandal, a court has heard.

    Mr Robinson is suing the club for almost $2 million, claiming it breached his contract.

    He claims the club’s actions damaged his reputation and left him unable to work in the football industry.

    Today his lawyer David Galbally QC told Supreme Court Associate Justice Melissa Daly that Essendon continued paying Mr Robinson after he was suspended in February 2013 - on the condition he was not to speak publicly about the scandal.

    by Diogenes on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:47 pm

  14. deblonay

    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Badcat…yes that post of Twaddles is almost as insulting as that master of the insult…Psephos

    ———————————————–

    Nothing is so unpalatable to arrogant people as to meet with scorn where they expected an unqualified admission of superiority.

    by badcat on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:50 pm

  15. The Greens will win on AS only when either a major party has on shore as policy in government.

    It can be done see Italy.

    Or when courts rule that safety of asylum seekers can only legally be guaranteed on shore.

    Failing that the argument must be how you do it. This is where as Rex Douglas says Labor is failing.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  16. The Coalition don’t deserve Govt due to their deceit and socially destructive agenda.

    The current ALP don’t deserve Govt due to their lack of spine and good sense.

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:54 pm

  17. ru

    I did not see any of the RC today, but i saw this on twitter.

    McGregor statement says Jackson reimbursed on 2 personal credit cards in total $1,136,211.70 #turc

    Do you know what this is about?

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:55 pm

  18. AdamAbdool

    As difficult as it is to accept, this is a true position. On the question of AS, both major parties were united on this issue until John Howard came along. From then on Labor could never win this debate and they never will. It does matter how soft or how hard Labor becomes, the Liberals have sole ownership on this issue and they never going to let go.

    I disagree. The ALP can and must win this one by making the LNP position peculiar to the right-wing bigot faction. It really is the equivalent of climate change denial, gay marriage slippery slopes, surplus fetishism, debt angst, misogyny, Laura Norder, war on drugs and much else. If they don’t, the LNP will always have a stick with which to beat the ALP.

    It may well be that for a time, significant numbers of ALP voters continue to fear and hate asylum seekers, and want them punished for daring to flee brutality in our direction. The ALP should say that policy is off the table for the same reason that brutalising the vulnerable in this country is off the table. It is simply not part of our values. If they want a party that will brutalise the vulnerable, they have to accept a party that will do it to all the vulnerable, not simply non-European foreigners.

    by Fran Barlow on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  19. Diogenes

    Mike Fitzpatrick and his AFL Commission stand condemned for prioritizing revenue before integrity.

    For not knowing exactly what they injected their young employees, Essendon should have been de-registered and their entire offield management replaced.

    I ask, if you were the parent of a player how would you react to not knowing what he was injected with ?

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  20. @Simon_Cullen: Tonight’s episode of @insightSBS looks interesting – do we have a culture of entitlement? https://t.co/jNXogSQ4tz

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:00 pm

  21. I did not see any of the RC today, but i saw this on twitter.

    McGregor statement says Jackson reimbursed on 2 personal credit cards in total $1,136,211.70 #turc

    Do you know what this is about?

    The HSU #3 bookkeeper stated this morning Kathy Jackson had a Diners Club and a Mastercard in her own name, the bills would be sent to the HSU and paid off each month. Some of the invoices were “missing”.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:02 pm

  22. Rex – absolutely not. But I think Labor believe – and I suspect they’re right – that a large majority of Australians will give him one.

    by teh_drewski on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:03 pm

  23. Are we about to witness a dozen or so detectives swoop on Ms Jacksons residence and haul her away in front of a full media gallery ?

    by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:06 pm

  24. ru

    Thanks

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:10 pm

  25. Are we about to witness a dozen or so detectives swoop on Ms Jacksons residence and haul her away in front of a full media gallery ?

    Do we have a minority Govt in the Reps? er No, so NO. :P

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:10 pm

  26. QT today. I had visitors. Do I gather that it was so ho-hum that PB didn’t watch it?

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:10 pm

  27. lizzie

    I did not see QT, but i can imagine that the same repetitive stuff happened.

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:13 pm

  28. Another of Jackson’s reasons for missing documentation was a flood in the offices at some time. The bookkeeper shot this down, saying the flood did not reach HSU offices level even though the building did flood.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  29. Senator Boswell doing valedictory speech

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  30. ru

    Ooh someone is telling porkies

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:17 pm

  31. ru

    Is Caffy going to be cross examined tomorrow?

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:18 pm

  32. Just found this tweet. Dutton is seriously out of order with his insults.

    Tara-Leigh ‏2h
    Wha??? Did Dutton seriously just tell Tanya to go take her medication? #qt

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:21 pm

  33. Fran@317

    So what you suggestion is that Labor changes its policy to onshore processing (because that is the only moral way to deal with AS), go into an election with this position which will make it very difficult for Labor to regain government and Abbott and Hockey have another term to push their right wing tea party policy?

    I hold the refugees very close to my heart because of their determination, their drive, and their will to get the best for their children and families. But we should also give our full attention to disadvantaged people within the country. Standing up for some high moral values which will result in Labor losing on both fronts does make political sense to me and as much as I am saddened by AS, the next Labor government will really have to clean up the social mess that this Abbott government is going to leave us with. My firm view is that Labor cannot win on both fronts and it certainly cannot win on AS.

    by adam abdool on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:23 pm

  34. The combination of arrogance and ignorance of conservatives never fails to take my breath away.

    Windfarm owners say the head of Tony Abbott's renewable energy review recently told them they were foolish to “build a whole business model on government largesse”, raising fears he will recommend a severe winding back of the renewable energy target.

    Simon Holmes a Court, the founding chair of Hepburn Wind, a community windfarm, told Guardian Australia he had been astonished by the comments from businessman Dick Warburton at a meeting last week.

    Meanwhile, the now-independent Climate Council has released a report arguing Australia’s coal-fired power stations are among the oldest and dirtiest in the world and difficult to retrofit with carbon capture and storage technology – leaving renewables such as wind as the least-cost “zero emissions” option.

    Holmes a Court said Warburton asked “didn’t we feel foolish basing a whole business model on government largesse”. The “government largesse” being referred to was the renewable energy target (RET) that was first introduced by the Howard government, has enjoyed bipartisan support ever since and has attracted about $18bn in investment.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/16/fears-for-renewables-after-energy-target-described-as-government-largesse

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:24 pm

  35. lizzie
    You missed NOTHING!

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:26 pm

  36. When the good Lord above was handing out lack of discernment, Michael Smith was front, centre and back of the queue.

    by shellbell on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:27 pm

  37. BK

    Are labor just going through the motions in QT in getting the govt to put everything they are doing on the record?

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:27 pm

  38. Can someone explain to me how Joel Fitzgibbon maintains an Opposition front bench seat after years of undermining that tore down the former Govt ?

    dumbarse… how is Shorten there then…having bought down two PMs?

    by Thomas. Paine. on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:29 pm

  39. There does not seem to be a contradictor at the HSU part of the commission like there was with Dr Handscombe SC at the AWU part.

    by shellbell on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:31 pm

  40. A little philosophy by George Monbiot: becoming conservative-light will not save the progressive parties.

    This thought is prompted by responses to the column I wrote last week. It examined the psychological illiteracy that's driving leftwing politics into oblivion. It argued that the failure by Labour and Democratic party strategists to listen to psychologists and cognitive linguists has resulted in a terrible mistake: the belief that they can best secure their survival by narrowing the distance between themselves and their conservative opponents.

    Twenty years of research, comprehensively ignored by these parties, reveals that shifts such as privatisation and cutting essential public services strongly promote people's extrinsic values (an attraction to power, prestige, image and status) while suppressing intrinsic values (intimacy, kindness, self-acceptance, independent thought and action). As extrinsic values are powerfully linked to conservative politics, pursuing policies that reinforce them is blatantly self-destructive.

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:33 pm

  41. Link for 339

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/16/saving-the-world-promise-not-fear-nature-environmentalism

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:33 pm

  42. Are labor just going through the motions in QT in getting the govt to put everything they are doing on the record?

    vic
    I hope there is method to it otherwise it is pretty ineffective.

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:35 pm

  43. Monbiot again:

    We've tended to assume people are more selfish than they really are. Surveys across 60 countries show that most people consistently hold concern for others, tolerance, kindness and thinking for themselves to be more important than wealth, image and power. But those whose voices are loudest belong to a small minority with the opposite set of values. And often, idiotically, we have sought to appease them.

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:36 pm

  44. Is Caffy going to be cross examined tomorrow?

    Yep she is scheduled first up at 10 am I think.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:36 pm

  45. lizzie

    Yes he did and Madam Kero let him get away with a conditional withdrawal . As in “if it (forgotten but something about pleasing Kero) then I withdraw”

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:36 pm

  46. There does not seem to be a contradictor at the HSU part of the commission like there was with Dr Handscombe SC at the AWU part.

    So far the “evidence” does not really need contesting, Ian Temby QC may come into his own tomorrow.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:38 pm

  47. BK

    The action is in the senate. QT favours the govt in every way. Whatever the question, the govt will answer it however they please whilst having a go at the Opposition

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:40 pm

  48. Thanks ru

    I will try and watch it

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:41 pm

  49. poroti

    I try not to assume that a person’s character shows in their face, but in Dutton’s case I give in. He’s a nasty potato.

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:42 pm

  50. lizzie
    And Michaelia?

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 5:43 pm

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