Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25737-the-most-polluted-rivers-and-streams-in-europe.html#.U6ABgfmSwbA

    by Dee on Jun 17, 2014 at 6:53 pm

  2. Under the waves of Papua New Guinea, a vent of pure carbon dioxide showed a BBC environment analyst what an ocean choked by CO2 looks like

    I HAVE gazed into the future of the tropical oceans, and it's not a reassuring sight.

    In Papua New Guinea, the Ring of Fire has bestowed a unique gift on science – an underwater vent of pure carbon dioxide.

    Normally researchers projecting the effect of rising CO2 must rely on computer models. But here they can observe it for real as the CO2 bubbles dissolve to form carbonic acid, creating on a small scale the conditions expected globally by the end of the century.

    At first it is a beguiling sight through a diver's mask. The parcels of CO2 are silvered by the sunlight as they wobble towards the surface. But then the eye wanders to the background. The reef is miserably depleted. Tough boulder corals survive, but the most spectacular branching corals and table corals that provide breeding grounds for fish are missing. Research suggests more than a third of coral species will ultimately be wiped out.

    Just a few hundred metres away, an unpolluted reef acts as a scientific control. Adorned by more than 500 species of coral, it is a carnival of life and colour.

    This tale of two reefs enables researchers to draw conclusions about which creatures will thrive with the shift in ocean chemistry and which will perish.

    Beyond this natural laboratory the full effects of rising CO2 are still hard to predict. But we do know that the current rate of change in sea chemistry is 10 times faster than the last great acidification event caused by volcanic activity 56 million years ago – an event that appears to have contributed to serious ecological disruption.

    by Dee on Jun 17, 2014 at 6:55 pm

  3. Funny how Abbott is funding roads to an Airport with no funds. Roads to nowhere rings a bell.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:01 pm

  4. And while the Liberals prefer to build roads rather than invest in rail……with the proposed increases in the fuel excise, Abbott and his sugar daddies will have plenty of room on the roads

    ONE in three Australian drivers admit there are days they can’t afford to buy petrol.

    That’s one of the findings of a new study from customer research company Canstar Blue, which also found that 35 per cent of drivers will only fill up at the bowser if they have a discount voucher.

    The research shows the financial strain that Aussie drivers are under — all at a time when the federal government plans to raise fuel taxes

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:01 pm

  5. Dee

    Thank you for that post. Enlightening in the worst way.

    by lizzie on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:04 pm

  6. We are such a great country but sadly..

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BqTKF0xCYAEIkvL.jpg

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:04 pm

  7. ruawake

    Roads to nowhere rings a bell.

    Like ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWtCittJyr0&feature=kp

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:06 pm

  8. Wonderful isn’t it that the first budget bill passed is a new tax. L I A R S

    by mikehilliard on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:08 pm

  9. AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 7:01 pm | PERMALINK
    And while the Liberals prefer to build roads rather than invest in rail……with the proposed increases in the fuel excise, Abbott and his sugar daddies will have plenty of room on the roads

    ONE in three Australian drivers admit there are days they can’t afford to buy petrol.

    That’s one of the findings of a new study from customer research company Canstar Blue, which also found that 35 per cent of drivers will only fill up at the bowser if they have a discount voucher.

    The research shows the financial strain that Aussie drivers are under — all at a time when the federal government plans to raise fuel taxes

    Yes, if we happened to get a long and sustained blow out in petrol prices before the next election I reckon Abbott would be just about stuffed, if he isn’t already.

    by Darn on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:08 pm

  10. This had me in tears!

    Famous elephant Satao known for his tusks so large they touch the ground has been killed for his ivory in by poachers in Kenya
    Satao had roamed Kenya's Tsavo East National Park for at least 45 years
    He was killed by poachers with a single poisoned arrow, the park said
    The elephant was admired by thousands of visitors to the park every year

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2658305/Famous-elephant-Satao-known-tusks-large-touch-ground-killed-ivory-poachers-Kenya.html#ixzz34szmc3w1

    by Dee on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:16 pm

  11. If people can’t afford petrol what’s the point of building more motorways. They will become the haven of heavy transport, carving huge dividing tracts through urban suburbs. Polluting fumes, brake dust, road kill, on and on…

    by mikehilliard on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:18 pm

  12. No mention of a second airport in the NSW budget, must be a Tony thing. If max and the SAC decide to go ahead of course.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:21 pm

  13. @ET 398
    {The money is in the budget for the shovels to start digging!}

    Why are taxpayers paying anything at all for a second airport? The LNP sold the last one and they’ll sell this one, too – at a loss, as usual.
    Give it to Macquarie bank to build. They can then own the risks, and the costs.

    by Maude Lynne on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:24 pm

  14. We not even taxing the first airport anyway, why are we building the first one?

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:29 pm

  15. Typical of the gutless blowhards such as Senators Bernadi and Macdonald and the LNP. Make lots of noise about the deficit levy but are mute when the law is waved through on the voices.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-governments-deficit-levy-passes-senate-despite-internal-dissent-20140617-3aadn.html

    Another example of the freedom of choice an independence in the conservatives.

    by It’s Time on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:32 pm

  16. I totally agree with the emerging consensus that Q and A is an utter waste of electricity. I haven’t watched more than a few fleeting moments of this waste of taxpayer’s coin in years, annoyed and irritated as I am by Tony Jones’ antics in always attempting to intrude himself into the discussions, rather than, as the best facilitators of this programme format do, allow the guests to make their case, and to skillfully moderate the group (get it? … moderate?) to ensure that all participants have a fair opportunity to respond and defend their positions, or not, as some idiots regularly manage on Q and A without Jones managing to point out the obvious falsehoods or misrepresentations.
    The hooting and howling of the audience is a function of Jones and the ABC’s inability to manage the format, encouraging and allowing as they do the takeover of the show by loonies and illiterates – and these questions are supposedly vetted before hand?
    It’s a circus, complete with clowns and jugglers, acrobats and animal acts, and should be treated as such, that is, as a tired and stodgy anachronism not worthy of our attention in the 21st century.

    Excellent summary The Big Ship.

    Could not agree more.

    If poor old Aunty is asked to find more cuts, let the scalpel start with the boil that is Qanda!

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:33 pm

  17. Typical of the gutless blowhards such as Senators Bernadi and Macdonald and the LNP. Make lots of noise about the deficit levy but are mute when the law is waved through on the voices.

    More like the Liberal party routinely trumpets the ability of its MPs to exercise a free vote, but they rarely if ever do so when their abstention or crossing the floor changes the overall vote outcome.

    And if their abstention or vote for some reason DOES impact the overall vote outcome, those individual MPs are invariably paired and therefore not even in the chamber.

    Free vote my arse.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:40 pm

  18. Revisited this article from 2013

    But even before international tensions potentially flare up, Australia and other nations in the region could face internal struggles between haves and have-nots.
    "Shortages and rising prices may create a double whammy: Average families struggling to put food on the table, while at the same time government is forced to cut back on social welfare programs," Dr Ganguly said.
    "Growing anger may spill over onto our streets, leading to law and order problems. In the worst case scenario, food riots may break out, undermining Australian internal security and domestic stability.
    "We need to focus our attention on increasing food production; in short, domestic food production simply must keep pace with the food requirements of a growing population."

    http://www.news.com.au/national/world-food-production-report-has-serious-implications-for-australia8217s-security/story-fncynjr2-1226666627286

    by Dee on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:41 pm

  19. The 2nd Syd Airport is another joke from Abbott. He has committed funding to build roads if it goes ahead.

    SAC has an option to build the second airport, they have a year to think about building it. But Sydney airport is not at capacity.

    The larger A380 type planes with 500-800 passengers means less flights. Sydney airport may never reach capacity, if the second one has to compete it will go broke.

    But heck it gets Jackie Kelly back into politics as an indie campaigning against Abbott.

    by ruawake on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:42 pm

  20. Maude Lynne

    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

    @ET 398
    {The money is in the budget for the shovels to start digging!}

    Why are taxpayers paying anything at all for a second airport? The LNP sold the last one and they’ll sell this one, too – at a loss, as usual.
    Give it to Macquarie bank to build. They can then own the risks, and the costs.
    ======================================

    Macquarie haven’t paid tax on the Sydney Airport since 2002

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:45 pm

  21. Excellent summary The Big Ship.

    Could not agree more.

    If poor old Aunty is asked to find more cuts, let the scalpel start with the boil that is Qanda!

    Someone’s poster boy got smacked on QnA……boo hoo cry baby

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:49 pm

  22. If there’s a good economic argument for a second Sydney airport, I’ve certainly not seen it. Long term I see flight demand shrinking, not increasing…

    by teh_drewski on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:57 pm

  23. Someone’s poster boy got smacked on QnA……boo hoo cry baby

    Whose poster boy?

    Not sure what you are referring to.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:58 pm

  24. Why would flight demand shrink as population increases and flight becomes more economical with better planes?

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:04 pm

  25. Long term I see flight demand shrinking, not increasing…

    Why do you say that, if I can ask?

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:04 pm

  26. International passenger growth to and from Australia continues to grow year on year – I think the recent average over the last decade is 5% per year.

    Large planes like the A380 might slow the number of flight movements a little, but they too will continue to grow. In any case, a lot of the growth has been with low cost carriers, who do not use these larger planes (yet).

    I see no basis for any downward trend – unless a SARS or Swine Flu type event occurred.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:11 pm

  27. Perhaps he’s thinking of Qantas. They manage to lose customers even while the market is growing ;) .

    by DisplayName on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:15 pm

  28. My 5% average is modest — this year we are looking at 6.3% as of March

    https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/international.aspx#summary

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:15 pm

  29. It’s Time re Bernardi et al
    __________
    Yes… and interesting that Bernardi is so concerned that the well off might pay more in the levy,but shows not a sign of concern for the people on lower incomes who will suffer under the budget

    what absolute bastards !

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:16 pm

  30. Darren Laver@425

    International passenger growth to and from Australia continues to grow year on year – I think the recent average over the last decade is 5% per year.

    Large planes like the A380 might slow the number of flight movements a little, but they too will continue to grow. In any case, a lot of the growth has been with low cost carriers, who do not use these larger planes (yet).

    I see no basis for any downward trend – unless a SARS or Swine Flu type event occurred.

    The only limiting factor I can see is aviation fuel in a carbon constrained world.

    Can we economically produce aviation fuel without using fossil fuels?

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:20 pm

  31. @abcnews: Choice backs Australians who pirate Game of Thrones, says Foxtel has left ‘few choices’ besides illegal downloads
    http://t.co/oLcSORGsVf

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:21 pm

  32. …maybe they could put solar panels on the wings?

    planes fly closer to the sun, its probably highly efficient…

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:21 pm

  33. International scheduled passenger traffic in March 2014 was 2.525 million compared to 2.497 million in March 2013 – an increase of 1.1 per cent. March 2011 (-1.6 per cent) recorded the only annual month on month decrease in traffic since March 2009.

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:21 pm

  34. No point sending troops to Iraq if this is true.

    @AFilan: Israeli journo reports “Baghdad collapse,” says Maliki and army chief have left town RT @yossi_melman

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:22 pm

  35. E

    …maybe they could put solar panels on the wings?

    planes fly closer to the sun, its probably highly efficient…

    We should work out how to genetically engineer humans to photosynthesize too.

    by DisplayName on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:26 pm

  36. International scheduled passenger traffic in March 2014 was 2.525 million compared to 2.497 million in March 2013 – an increase of 1.1 per cent. March 2011 (-1.6 per cent) recorded the only annual month on month decrease in traffic since March 2009.

    Very selective. Still 6.3% for the year ended March 2014 vs March 2013.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:27 pm

  37. We are currently going through a process of possibly deregulating our regional airport and flight routes. If you believe the local chamber of commerce, this will open up flight routes not currently supported, despite the fact that Virgin currently operate routes which are not ‘profitable’ (ie Sat/Sun), but do it because the state govt mandates them to operate these routes under a regulated system.

    That’s an airport in a small regional WA town. I’d be interested to know on what basis a major capital city airport isn’t looking to expand in the future.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:27 pm

  38. Yes… and interesting that Bernardi is so concerned that the well off might pay more in the levy,but shows not a sign of concern for the people on lower incomes who will suffer under the budget

    The 2% debt levy on those who earn over $180,000 is expected to affect a relatively small number of taxpayers — approximately 400,000 people

    Compaerd to;

    •repeal of the loss carry-back for small companies
    •repeal of the low-income super contribution
    •repeal of the income support bonus, and
    •repeal of the schoolkids bonus
    •the tax-free threshold remaining at $18,200 instead of increasing to $19,200 from July 1, 2015
    •the maximum value of the low-income tax offset remaining at $445 (instead of falling to $300 from July 1, 2015)

    The government will increase the Medicare levy low-income threshold for families from the 2013-14 income year.

    The government will remove further indexation from payment of the Clean Energy Supplement, which is paid to recipients of all social welfare payments

    The government announced that it would not proceed with the final round of the National Rental Affordability

    The government will include untaxed superannuation income in the assessment of income to determine eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card from January 1, 2015.

    The government will cease the Seniors Supplement for holders of the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card from September 20, 2014

    The government will index pension and equivalent payments and Parenting Payment Single only by the consumer price index as opposed to the higher of the increases in inflation, Male Total Average Weekly Earnings or the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index.

    The government will reset the deeming thresholds used in the pension assets test to $30,000 for singles and $50,000 for couples

    So much for all the rants that pensioners have not be effected

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:28 pm

  39. @AFilan: Israeli journo reports “Baghdad collapse,” says Maliki and army chief have left town RT @yossi_melman

    This is an appalling situation if confirmed.

    Psephos was only lecturing us the other day for not being sufficiently praiseworthy of Iraqi democracy. How quickly things can change.

    Iraqis have suffered enough.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:29 pm

  40. @nevso: Can you imagine someone trying this with Bob Carr
    http://t.co/tz7C161iu9 #auspol

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:29 pm

  41. Guytaur…
    What is the point of any involvement in Iraq anyway

    Only Iran can save the Shia south…how lucky the US didn’t follow the advice of the zionists and make war on Iran

    Odd if that report is true ,because Baghdad is a predominately Shia city nowadays,and one would think the sunni insurgents would find it hard to control

    and what then that vast US Embassy,,,now empty I suspect ..what a trophy for the insurgents to capture

    Of course the whole region is full of great old ruins left by collapsed empires

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:30 pm

  42. Total seats made available on international scheduled operations to/from Australia during March 2014 were 3.674 million – an increase of 6.6 per cent compared to March 2013. The overall seat utilisation percentage (including China Airlines, Emirates and Qantas passengers travelling through Australian ports) has decreased from 75.4 per cent in March 2013 to 71.6 per cent in March 2014.

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:34 pm

  43. Latest BBC reports have ISIS approaching Baghdad but no mention of Maliki and Army Chief fleeing.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:38 pm

  44. guytaur

    Baghdad will be OK as the Iranian general who has been running the place for several years has taken charge of the defence of Baghdad .

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:39 pm

  45. Latest BBC reports have ISIS approaching Baghdad but no mention of Maliki and Army Chief fleeing.

    ISIS have no legitimate business in the capital.

    I hope they turn back immediately or are otherwise repelled, with force if necessary.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:40 pm

  46. guytaur

    Not only but also ISIS has 8-10,000 troops. That number cannot do what they have done. It is a Sunni uprising.

    by poroti on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:42 pm

  47. Major shock in California re Fracking
    __________________________
    Wild exageration re the tar sands prospects for fracking in California have just been reveled a massive fraud and the estimates of the likely oil reserves has been overestimated by as much as 96%

    This destroys the claim that these fields would make the US oil/gas independent of the middle East ..and have a major export industry to the Euro zone to counter Russian gas …all blow away by new research

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/16/a-big-blow-to-the-fracking-industry/

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:44 pm

  48. Looks like Barnett is going to keep blaming the feds for cuts to seniors concessions while doing all he can to come out smelling of roses. Surprisement.

    Last month's federal budget cut $107 million over four years from WA seniors' concessions, with the state set to lose $25 million this financial year.

    Discounts on local government rates, vehicle registration and water charges are under threat.

    Mr Barnett said he was surprised by the decision, but has insisted the State Government would not step in to make up the shortfall.

    He said the Government would instead make changes at a state level to minimise the impact of the cuts.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-17/wa-rules-out-making-up-shortfall-in-seniors-concessions/5530654

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:45 pm

  49. And apparently there are plans for seniors groups to march in Perth this Friday to protest the federal (and state) budget.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:45 pm

  50. Just on airport usage, Last night I bought return tickets to Japan, returning via KL for one of the Sprocket children. Price? Under $1k which is 1.5 weeks work for them.

    For those with itchy feet, no better time to travel.

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:48 pm

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