Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. @ClimateGroup: One of world’s richest oil-based economies, UAE, makes surprise bid to be clean energy leader: http://t.co/MzhmSXCSNJ http://t.co/WxvF7hEF9G

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:48 pm

  2. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/16/a-big-blow-to-the-fracking-industry/
    A major shock for the US oil./gas fracking industry

    In California new searches have revealed that the supposed vast fields of oil sands are only about a 20th of the estimated finds
    This will dash the claim that fracking will make the US gas/oil indepoendent

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:49 pm

  3. And apparently there are plans for seniors groups to march in Perth this Friday to protest the federal (and state) budget.

    Where were the dears during the campaign?

    Too little , too late.

    Gillard was right — these old coots won’t vote for Labor, even when it is in their direct financial interest.

    They voted for it, so let them eat dog food!

    (With apologies to Marie Antoinette)

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:50 pm

  4. 423
    Everything

    Why would flight demand shrink as population increases and flight becomes more economical with better planes?

    Because incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government.

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:51 pm

  5. That is not nice Darren Laver.

    You should respect our elders…

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:51 pm

  6. Bookmark if you are following this issue.

    @leigh_howard: Federal Court’s online file for Hird/Essendon v ASADA case, where the public can view all Court docs: http://t.co/bJ00O1QALD #auslaw #AFL

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:51 pm

  7. Not sure why the Fuack these pensioners are protesting?

    Tony Abbott said in Question Time today there was no broken promises, and no cuts to pensions.

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:52 pm

  8. Darren Laver@438


    @AFilan: Israeli journo reports “Baghdad collapse,” says Maliki and army chief have left town RT @yossi_melman


    This is an appalling situation if confirmed.

    Psephos was only lecturing us the other day for not being sufficiently praiseworthy of Iraqi democracy. How quickly things can change.

    Iraqis have suffered enough.

    I would have expected that given the ISIS propensity to murder captives, the Iraqui Army and Shiite resistance would have stiffened remarkably.

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:52 pm

  9. Darren L:

    Yes the silence from seniors organisations and associated advocates was almost deafening during the campaign.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:55 pm

  10. Andrew Elder’s latest.
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/breaking-news.html

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:57 pm

  11. Finns has outdone himself with this animal themed montage

    https://twitter.com/Thefinnigans/status/478849987950833664/photo/1

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:00 pm

  12. 24 ive coverage UK parliament on Iraq

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:06 pm

  13. So, 1.5 million people took the ethical and moral step of downloading a program on Foxtel (Game of Thrones). And Gorgeous George is going to crack down on them. George, you’ve done some spectacularly dumb things, but this will put them all in the shade. That would be even more unpopular than that stupid budget your mates came up with.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:06 pm

  14. sprocket_@460

    Finns has outdone himself with this animal themed montage

    https://twitter.com/Thefinnigans/status/478849987950833664/photo/1

    Peta Credlin for PM.

    You know it makes sense.

    by Player One on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:11 pm

  15. @BBCBreaking: Islamist attack on Iraqi police station leaves 44 detainees dead in Baquba, north of capital Baghdad – officials http://t.co/x6U1s96AGm

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:12 pm

  16. Oil rises to 112 $ per barrel caused by Iraq crisis
    _________________________________________
    Russia is the unexpected winner as the result of major rises in oil and gas prices due to Iraq crisis

    The Ukraine faces its major crisis as Russia yesterday turned off the gas supplies due to an unpaid $4.5 billion dollar bill

    The bill must be paid and a new in advance payment system adopted by the Ikraine before the gas come on again

    It’s expeceted that there will be a majpr crisis in Ukraine as the cuts bite..and they may try to tap the pipelines to Europe that cross the Ukraine from Russia(and from which they recieve a royalty)

    Formerly the Ukraine got a 30% discount on gas from their Russian supplier Gazprom

    by deblonay on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:13 pm

  17. K17

    With the right search phrase I was able to stream GoT’s latest episode in two clicks of the mouse. This wasn’t a torrent or Usenet or any kind of subscription service, just a run-of-the-mill video streaming website… one of the hundreds of YouTube knock-offs.

    So long as Google exists it will be the easiest thing in the world to evade any anti-piracy measures the government puts in place. It’s just a gigantic waste of time to even try.

    by absolutetwaddle on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:14 pm

  18. Tony Abbott said in Question Time today there was no broken promises, and no cuts to pensions.

    He lied – again

    See #437

    The government will include untaxed superannuation income in the assessment of income to determine eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card from January 1, 2015.

    The government will cease the Seniors Supplement for holders of the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card from September 20, 2014

    The government will index pension and equivalent payments and Parenting Payment Single only by the consumer price index as opposed to the higher of the increases in inflation, Male Total Average Weekly Earnings or the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index.

    The government will reset the deeming thresholds used in the pension assets test to $30,000 for singles and $50,000 for couples

    So much for all the rants that pensioners have not be effected

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:34 pm

  19. And the money from the GP Tax is going to…….

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BqUt–PCUAAeSVp.jpg

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:36 pm

  20. So long as Google exists it will be the easiest thing in the world to evade any anti-piracy measures the government puts in place. It’s just a gigantic waste of time to even try.

    Choice has been quite vocal about this.

    Content owners need to supply the content in a way consumers want. Any business model that forces consumers to consume something against their preferences because they have no other choice will eventually come tumbling down the minute there is an alternative where such constraints are not there.

    Hotels are seeing this with the arrival of AirBnB. Leisure and business travellers are sick of the product that hotels offer (and the associated gouging with things like mini bars, $20 laundry fees per shirt etc). People are flocking to private apartments with no rigid check in times, access to laundry facilities and fridges you are free to stock yourself.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:41 pm

  21. Everything, confessions

    I see the supply of international air travel shrinking in the medium term as overseas carriers stop subsidising routes for domestic political reasons. Reduced capacity and competition for fares will increase cost. Additionally, I see the cost of fuel skyrocketing in the medium term, as supply dwindles and as the cost of carbon is increasingly priced globally and the market rationalises fossil fuel use for recreational purposes. Thirdly, I think telecommunications infrastructure will progress to the point that most standard business conferences will be done remotely, along with many other things that currently require interstate and international travel.

    Happy to concede that technological improvements in aviation will offset some of this, but I’m not convinced that, along with population growth, will be sufficient to see serious long term growth in air traffic although in the short term the trend remains positive.

    by teh_drewski on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:42 pm

  22. Oil rises to 112 $ per barrel caused by Iraq crisis

    A barrel of oil is close enough to 159 litres or 42 US gallons

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:46 pm

  23. AA
    But you heard Abbott – pensions are going up and up and up!

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:48 pm

  24. The entire raison d’etre of Q&A is as an ABC ‘balance’ program: it explicitly provides equal time to the ALP and the LNP. It entirely serves a management/political function and almost entirely does not serve a cultural/intellectual function.

    by Martin B on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:54 pm

  25. I finished watching this fscinating and moving series tonight. It was wonderful.
    http://www.studiotv.com.au/highlights/taking-chocolate-frog/

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:55 pm

  26. We live in a disruptive world. Have you heard about Uber? you will soon…

    There are three main sources of structural deflation that are decades in the making. The first is demographics. As baby boomers age, leave the workforce, and focus more on divesting as opposed to investing, demand for products and services outside of health care declines. A reduction in demand-pull inflation suppresses the velocity of money, and in turn holds inflation down.

    The second source of structural deflation is the wealth gap between rich and poor. The continued destruction of the middle and concentration of wealth by those at the top of the food chain relative to everybody else in society counters Fed action. After all, if the pure, raw number of people in society have less money, the velocity of money can't really pick up meaningfully.

    The third structural source of deflation is technology, and this is where Uber comes in to play. Personally, I'm a huge fan of the service, convenience, and cost of hailing a car to get to meetings and outsource my own driving. With a valuation that puts the company at about $18 billion, clearly many agree.

    Uber is disruptive to the taxi and limousine industry in many ways, with some arguing that the ultimate direction for the company will be driver-less cars that can create trips on demand, reduce cars on the road, and ultimately eliminate driver jobs over time. There appears to be little that can stop such a potential trend. Recent strikes in London by drivers protesting the unfairness of Uber ended up backfiring, as sign-ups to Uber surged.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-fears-uber-2014-06-16?dist=beforebell

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 9:59 pm

  27. teh_drewski:

    Interesting.

    I have no expertise in this area, so can only wait to see how it all pans out.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:00 pm

  28. The entire raison d’etre of Q&A is as an ABC ‘balance’ program: it explicitly provides equal time to the ALP and the LNP. It entirely serves a management/political function and almost entirely does not serve a cultural/intellectual function.

    True.

    But it is also cast for conflict as much as “balance”, and Qanda producers have effectively admitted to this.

    This is why likening it to Jerry Springer is apt, conflict on the programme is contrived and designed for entertainment purposes. This is a tabloid approach to “news” and has no business on a public broadcaster.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:01 pm

  29. We live in a disruptive world. Have you heard about Uber? you will soon…

    Yes. This is also very interesting.

    Again, consumers hate the product taxis have been offering, and the minute there is a viable alternative, consumers flocked to it.

    A business model based on coercion will collapse the minute there is a real choice.

    Taxi drivers/owners went on strike throughout Europe over Uber recently — the result? Increased usage of Uber during the strike.

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:05 pm

  30. All of the following are problems with the asylum seekers:

    1. people are persecuted in their own homes

    2. people are stuck in refugee camps in poor countries with no future

    3. people live uncertain lives in poor countries that offer them no protection

    4. people undertake dangerous journeys and many die on the way

    5. people are treated cruelly by a rich country in order to deter those journeys

    The asylum seeker problem won’t be solved until all of those issues are resolved. It is the nonsense of nationalist politics that wants to draw a line around Australia and say that the first three are nothing for us to worry about, so we can use 5. as a solution to 4.

    by Martin B on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:09 pm

  31. No wonder Scotland has only ONE Tory MP!!!

    Scotland was the first country since Sparta in classical Greece to implement a system of general public education. Schooling was made compulsory for the first time in Scotland with the Education Act of 1496 since it forced all nobles and freeholders to educate their eldest sons in Latin, followed by the Arts, and Scots law.

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/06/17/dismantling-scottish-education/

    by swamprat on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:11 pm

  32. The entire raison d’etre of Q&A is as an ABC ‘balance’ program: it explicitly provides equal time to the ALP and the LNP. It entirely serves a management/political function and almost entirely does not serve a cultural/intellectual function.

    It’s a Jerry Springer show for elites. You saw the way PBers were salivating over that PUP Senator’s bogan train crash on Qanda. Similar to less politically engaged Australians eye-bugging at the train wreck guests Jerry Springer has on his show (or Judge Judy for that matter).

    Cringeworthy or hysterical drama would appear to be the new black.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:14 pm

  33. All of the following are problems with the asylum seekers:

    Are boats still coming?

    I ask this because my usual window into this subject is through the comments here from Greens aligned commenters or from mischief making, so called moderate Liberals.

    Since neither of these camps have had SFA to say about asylum seekers for months now, I’ve assumed we haven’t seen any boat arrivals.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:18 pm

  34. I ask this because my usual window into this subject is through the comments here from Greens aligned commenters or from mischief making, so called moderate Liberals.

    Indeed!

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:25 pm

  35. Good grief. On twitter

    #Lateline tonight:Business leader Mark Carnegie joins us to discuss his proposal to re-introduce compulsory national service.@Lateline 10:30

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:25 pm

  36. “Are boats still coming?”

    Well, they’re not arriving in Australian territory. Whether they’re being turned back or sinking is unknown, but they’re not getting through.

    by teh_drewski on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:26 pm

  37. A good read in The Guardian:

    No wonder Cameron wants to celebrate the Magna Carta - back then plebs had the same human rights as a parsnip

    If the prime minister really values Britishness, perhaps he could dispense with his weekly audience with the Queen and meet some of his subjects

    Everyone knows Cameron's a lizard. So why does the Telegraph continue to deny the truth?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/16/david-cameron-britishness-charlie-brooker

    by swamprat on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:26 pm

  38. @Victoria/484

    Sickening!

    Vote 1 For liberals for all your Corporate business needs!

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:33 pm

  39. It was noticeable that Howard lost his mojo at around the time that he lost Arthur Sinodinos as his CoS, giving rise to a suspicion that, for several years, the country had, in fact, been run by Mr S.

    I see no reason not to similarly suspect that we are currently under the direct government of Ms Credlin.

    by theintellectualbogan on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:34 pm

  40. My understanding is that the boats have stopped.

    That lawyer’s nuisance suit against those who saved drowning asylum seekers will only isolate “refugee advocates” from mainstream society and further undermine any remaining sympathy for those who take boats to Australia for the purposes of engaging Australia’s legal and refugee processes by geographical presence.

    I don’t think any future Labor Govt will touch the current policy settings with a 40 foot barge pole. Say what you want about the current government, but this is one area where they have delivered on their promise (and one of their more popular policy planks).

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:36 pm

  41. confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 10:18 pm | PERMALINK
    All of the following are problems with the asylum seekers:

    Are boats still coming?

    No. So one would presume that you will commend the government, given you stated that the yardstick of success was whether or not the boats stopped then?

    On the other hand, I made it quite clear that, in my view, it was irrelevant whether or not the boats stopped, what mattered was whether or not what AUSTRALIA was doing was ethical.

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:36 pm

  42. zoidlord

    Will watch replay of Lateline tomorrow morning to see what it is all about

    Night all

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:37 pm

  43. #Lateline tonight:Business leader Mark Carnegie joins us to discuss his proposal to re-introduce compulsory national service.@Lateline 10:30

    Talk about trolling!

    ABC is shameless. This sounds more like a talkback radio topic to get the old dears dialling in and screaming their support about “how it worked so well in my daaaay!”

    by Darren Laver on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:39 pm

  44. @Mod lib/490

    We don’t know the boats are coming because the media doesn’t know since November due to media blackout.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:39 pm

  45. The media blackout on this issue was about 20 years ago, not November.

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:40 pm

  46. National service! yeah! I hope the Tories bring it on.

    First if would be great to see how they justify the cost in these times of budget emergency.

    Second, I reckon most of the young people today would say ‘get stuffed, I’m not doing that.’

    by rossmcg on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:43 pm

  47. Wrong, November.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/scott-morrisons-noshowandtell-on-asylum-seekers-is-already-starting-to-unravel-20131114-2xjkx.html

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:44 pm

  48. So your contention is that the boats have kept coming and they are just telling us that they have stopped for 6 months (or is it more now?), are you?

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:46 pm

  49. The reintroduction of national service?

    Over my dead body.

    F@#kers!

    by roger bottomley on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:48 pm

  50. Non military national service…..BRING IT ON!

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:49 pm

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