Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. Joe Hockey deviding Australia:
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/06/16/lifters-loafers-joe-hockey-dividing-australia/

    “Hockey has managed to redefine the nation’s notion of unfair. Unfair is no longer the person with a disability, the chronically unemployed or the single mother who struggles to pay the gas bill.”

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:43 am

  2. According to Joe Hockey, I should go out an kill myself for being Disabled, right? Because it’s unfair for on the tax payer?

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:45 am

  3. Zoidy yes that is true plus the government’s under investment but some of the fees Universities charge for various activities do appear excessive and without must bases

    by mexicanbeemer on Jun 17, 2014 at 12:55 am

  4. Nett_News++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #abbott, #Iraq, Death Round_a_bout, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1ju8xCB

    by Otiose on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:10 am

  5. Depression costing workers and business money:
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/depression-in-the-workplace-costing-workers-and-businesses-20140615-zs8kb.html#ixzz34lAjKBRb

    “Workers say mental wellbeing is even more neglected than physical safety on the job, with 48 per cent of 1126 respondents saying their employers fail to help them through job-related or personal mental health issues.”

    “The TNS Global study, commissioned by beyondblue, found those working in mentally unhealthy workplaces were twice as likely to take sick days.”

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:17 am

  6. Leroy Lynch

    Re Hudson’s article especially Shorten criticism.

    What actually did Abbott do when opposition leader, except Lie ,bit different coverage by the Oz of course

    Wht has happened to Shanners? Is he still around?

    by mari on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:23 am

  7. Its quiet sad the liberals dumped the Disability Commissioner:
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/jetstar-business-model-leaves-jim-conway-stuck-in-wheelchair-20140614-zs7vr.html

    They say they don’t do class warfare, complete hogwash.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:37 am

  8. If shorten doesn’t step up (& I hope he does) labor has a very charismatic leader ready to go. But will they have the ‘courage’ to put Plibersek in the role? I can’t see it happening – shorten has spent decades of factional stacking and even helping to manoeuvre his people to lead other factions and take out potential opponents. I really like albo, but he’s not PM material – Tanya is. Abbott’s ‘women issues’ would see another 5 points swing to labor, and somehow I think a lot of blokes would vote for Plibersek over abbott too. Labor should sit on the weapon – if they go too soon the fibs will be forced to go to talcum and that’d even things up too much. watching abbott trying to debate Plibersek would be fun – I imagine he’d ooze with the sleazy uncle vibe that he thinks is charming and look like to sexist tool he is.

    by Sir sustainable future on Jun 17, 2014 at 1:44 am

  9. More depressing news for us Welfare recipients:
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/12/welfare-claimants-with-psychiatric-problems-should-keep-links-to-work

    “McClure echoed earlier references by Andrews that welfare payments would be reduced to four or five streams with supplements abolished over time. He said an individualistic approach should be taken to granting welfare payments, with people getting varying amounts of money and having to fulfil different requirements based on their circumstances.”

    ““Mutual obligations do have a role to play – what we would see in a future system is there would be individually taken requirements, it wouldn’t be one size fits all. Individuals that come into the system could be assessed and it would be obligations in relation to their own performance and requirements, in terms of pathways to education and training, that were appropriate for them,” he said.”

    This is a big push to get rid of welfare.

    And this McClure guy is insane and is basically wanting to people to not go back on DSP.

    So basically refusing to give people access to DSP once they get OFF IT.

    This is all part and parcel of getting rid of the Disability Payments, and hiding the real numbers of unemployment levels.

    As I said, These nutters are going for the UK style Universal System.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:05 am

  10. @Sir/57

    It’s not all about Leadership, People want to see Alternatives policies and budgets.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:09 am

  11. Sir Substainable

    I don’t think Tanya P wants the job, she has a fairly young child, and probably also saw what happend to Julia G.I personally think we have to give Bill S a fair chance and support him, if we want to get rid of Tony Abbott

    by mari on Jun 17, 2014 at 2:09 am

  12. Those Abbott approval ratings must be causing some alarm chez Credlin / Loughnane. If they go only 3 or 4 points worse over coming polls – ie worse than Gillard’s worst polls – then the chatter amongst coalition backbenchers in the marginals will really crank up. If so, expect some serious discipline problems.

    Shorten’s recent approval ratings possibly taking a hit from the mudslinging witch-hunt unions RC. His advantage vs Abbott is that opinions re: Abbott are likely more deeply entrenched and seemingly consistently heading south now.

    I don’t buy into the trollery re: Shorten’s performance. He is doing ok and has shown through his budget reply that he can organise and deliver a pretty good speech when needed.

    I voted for Albo but I am happy with how Shorten is going. Labor are in a relatively good position re: party leadership with several apparently capable potential leadership candidates should the need arise. Capable people proven to be good ministers. Contrast that with the Libs’ leadership talent cupboard. Bare as a new born baby’s bum…

    Labor should use its relative breadth of talent to continue to focus on policy – hip pocket, national credit rating and other important lifestyle issues for people. Leave the presidential campaign style with its *captains picks* to the Libs.

    by Norwester on Jun 17, 2014 at 4:17 am

  13. Was always going to happen after a trip. The post budget blowout to 55-45 wasn’t really sustainable. Im more comfortable with consistent polling at 53-47. Big leads that fluctuate make me suspicious.

    Shorten and Co. should just concentrate on Medicare, pensions, fairness. Don’t get drawn in on immigration or climate too much.

    by gloryconsequence on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:05 am

  14. Queenslander!

    Nobody should know the name of their Attorney General. It's one of those jobs fated to be performed quietly, without fuss or recognition. Attorneys General are the assistant mechanics of public service. They might tinker and fuss around in the engine of state, tightening something here, loosening there, but when they're doing the job well, they're unseen and unheard. You motor along happily and maybe, just maybe you think, damn the old motor of state is running smoothly.

    And then there's Jarrod Bleijie, not just fiddling around with the engine out of state, but ripping it out, strapping on nitrous tanks, dropping in an unlicensed nuclear accelerator, boring out the carby, pouring piranhas and sriracha sauce into the radiator and mounting a big arse cow catcher on the front end.

    http://m.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/blogs/blunt-instrument/attorney-generals-should-be-seen-and-not-heard-20140616-3a8mq.html

    by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:06 am

  15. Some general observations.

    1. The slow creep of 2PP back to the Coalition is to be expected. Barring more major stuff-ups (and these certainly cannot be ruled out) I expect the polls to get back to 50/50 later in the year. Australians as a rule really want first term governments to succeed, and are prepared to cut them a fair bit of slack. They are still pretty pissed off about the Rudd-Gillard debacle, and the Royal Commission has been reminding them of this and also highlighting the fact that Shorten as leader doesn’t represent as much of a clean break from the past as Labor would ideally need at this time.

    2. However, the Coalition have an enormous problem with leadership. The triumvirate of Abbott, Hockey and Pyne seems increasingly toxic: so much so, that the utterly uncharismatic Truss actually provided some much-needed relief over the past week and a half. Abbott on the world stage is even more of an embarrassment than I anticipated. His various appearances emphasized again and again how uncomfortable the bloke is when put in the spotlight and how little confidence he seems to have about anything that he says. No wonder he is becoming so unpopular: an untrustworthy bloke who doesn’t even seem to have any confidence in the case he is putting forward. It’s how people I know came to feel about Wayne Swan. It’s the last thing a political leader wants people to feel about them. Lack of self-confidence breeds distrust.

    3. I expect the “anger” about the Budget to fade away. A few thousand people who have never voted Liberal in their lives going on a street march matters not at all. Nor do tweets, Q&A audiences, or hits on youtube for John Oliver’s send-up of Abbott (well, maybe the last one just a tiny bit: ridicule is never a great thing for a politician to experience). Anyway, anger will gradually fade and, if the Government could suddenly start governing well from here on (and, more importantly, be seen to be governing well) they’d be a shoo-in to win the next election.

    4. But all their instincts appear to be wrong. Abbott returns home and immediately seems to start salivating about another Iraq war. I don’t think there are any votes to be had in khaki politics right now: we’ve been engaged in middle eastern wars for a decade, so it’s all old hat. Right now, the Government needs to make a big gesture to demonstrate that they got the message about fairness. They need to get over their chest-thumping nonsense and reach out towards the part of the population they have upset. Scrapping the PPL and restoring family benefits is the go, I reckon.

    5. And they need to start looking competent: the next Minister who gets an important detail of his or her portfolio wrong should be dumped: the time for excuses is up. And so forth.

    But I suspect they aren’t up to this and that, at around the time the polls get back to 50/50, they’ll make another series of political and policy stuff- ups and slide back down the snake to square one. And that will be when the drums of Vaucluse will truly start to beat.

    by meher baba on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:07 am

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Yeah, Mission Accomplished.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sas-on-alert-for-rescue-mission-to-baghdad-20140616-3a8ob.html
    Sage words of advice on Iraq from Malcolm Fraser.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/16/when-it-comes-to-iraq-australia-needs-to-look-after-its-own-national-interest
    Hardly surprising. George Pell ran well.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life/in-politicians-we-do-not-trust-says-readers-digest-survey-20140616-zs9dj.html
    Common sense at last!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/afl-commission-opens-path-for-crows-to-open-2015-premiership-season-on-good-friday-at-adelaide-oval/story-fnia3xzy-1226956515940
    This article on renewable energy nicely illustrates the ideological tactics of the Abbott government.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/16/fears-for-renewables-after-energy-target-described-as-government-largesse
    Seems like jailbird Williamson is an even bigger a***hole than we thought.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/top-hsu-officials-intimidated-whistleblowers-royal-commission-hears-20140616-3a7t8.html
    And the conservative backtracking on the $7 copayment continues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/call-to-pay-back-pensioners-for-7-gp-fee-20140616-3a8mu.html
    And the PPL may fare even worse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senator-threatens-to-cross-the-floor-on-debt-levy-vote-20140616-3a8l5.html
    Stephen Dank under investigation for fraud. Throw the book at the mongrel!
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/victoria-police-investigate-stephen-dank-over-possible-medicare-fraud-20140616-3a8nk.html
    What does Abbott really think about climate change?
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/jun/16/what-does-australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-really-think-about-climate-change

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:22 am

  17. Section 2 . . .

    The Greens hoist Hockey on his own silly petard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-offer-counterargument-to-joe-hockeys-formula-on-welfare-20140616-3a8l2.html
    Jacqui Maley reckons the Coalition is doing Labor’s work.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/labors-resonant-line-can-hardly-be-heard-over-the-coalitions-own-goals-20140616-3a8l4.html
    George Christensen off to Las Vegas as a guest of the Heartland Institute, a grubby anti-CC mob. Perfect for the gig.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/16/climate-sceptics-to-fly-queensland-mp-to-international-conference
    It’s not only the Coalition that is split. And it’s understandable.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-faces-damaging-alp-split-over-asylum-processing-20140616-3a893.html
    What better justification for support is there than the IPA being stridently against it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ipa-rebukes-nsw-victoria-over-opposition-to-discrimination-act-changes-20140616-3a8bf.html
    This explains the disgusting and duplicitous “answer” Abbott gave to Shorten in yesterday’s QT.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/16/coalitions-cleaning-contract-changes-have-sting-in-the-tail-says-union
    And the CBA/ASIC contest continues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/war-of-words-over-cba-financial-advice-victims-20140616-3a8k1.html
    Greg Jericho uses factual data and analysis to support his views on Hockey’s budget defence. How underhanded!
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/jun/16/joe-hockey-alls-fair-in-welfare-and-budgets
    Peter Martin implores the government to not devolve environmental decision making to the states.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dont-put-australias-treasures-in-state-hands-20140616-zs92y.html
    Bob Brown on Abbott’s “I am a conservationist” comment.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/16/i-am-a-conservationist-is-tony-abbott-the-only-person-who-believes-that

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:22 am

  18. Section 3 . . .

    It is totally unbelievable that the government wants to go down this FoFA path to give the spivs the green light. Or is it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-set-to-dilute-investor-protection-20140616-3a8na.html
    Ron Tandberg conflates the FoFA with selling the budget.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/06/17/5517831/ac-tandberg-defcon-20140617064220765092-620×0.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox seems unhappy with the direction of the NSW government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Simon Letch on “poles and wires”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html
    Great work from Pat Campbell on Abbott’s clean energy aspirations. (Look at the clouds).
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    David Rowe on the Iraqi merry-go-round.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:23 am

  19. The commission into union malpractice this week is expected to hear allegations that HSU official Kathy Jackson used $1 million of union funds to pay off her credit card.

    Health Services Union whistleblower Kathy Jackson / Picture: Stephen Cooper
    Health Services Union whistleblower Kathy Jackson / Picture: Stephen Cooper Source: News Corp Australia
    [It was Ms Jackson who made allegations of financial wrongdoing at the union which helped put HSU NSW General Secretary Michael Williamson behind bars and expose Labor MP Craig Thomson’s misuse of union funds to pay for porn and prostitutes.

    But counsel assisting the commission Jeremy Stoljar said a number of allegations had emerged against Ms Jackson in recent weeks. These include claims she used HSU bank cheques to withdraw $220,000 in cash between 2007 and 2010 and was involved in a slush fund. It is also alleged that unauthorised payments from the HSU’s No. 3 branch were made to a bank account she controlled.

    She has previously dismissed allegations she used her union credit card to pay for personal items including shoes, makeup, French champagne, a ski trip and a room at Las Vegas’s Bellagio hotel.

    Ms Jackson remains the HSU’s honorary national secretary but has been on stress leave for almost two years.

    Mr Stoljar said the inquiry would examine how the corruption in the union was allowed to flourish and why it was not detected earlier.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/julia-gillards-exboyfriend-bruce-wilson-gets-a-lawyer-for-free-at-the-royal-commission-into-trades-unions/story-fnii5s41-1226956610891

    by Dee on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:37 am

  20. And from the Land of the Free -

    FoxNews’s Shep Smith talks sense on Iraq. He’s for the chop!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/06/16/stop-making-sense/
    The US Supreme Court continues to hand down ridiculous decisions. George W Bush’s time bombs.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/supreme-court-rules-anti-abortion-group
    These two fathers may turn out to be a formidable foe for the NRA.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/images-father-santa-barbara-shooter-meets
    How delightful! The KKK to get specialist combat training.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/kkk-leader-claims-returning-military-will
    Rick Perry at his “best”.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/watch-rick-perry-can-t-explain-why-he
    Bulletproof backpacks for schoolchildren. What next?
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/16/1307431/-We-love-our-guns-too-much-so-now-we-re-bulletproofing-the-children
    Mike Malloy unloads on US school shootings.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017197395

    by BK on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:45 am

  21. Morning all. The poll is something of a pox on both sides, bad for Liberals, but the trend bad for Labor, with neither leader especially popular. The budget did NOT fix structural problems in the tax system, so the libs should not delude themselves all will be well by 2016.

    by Socrates on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:49 am

  22. My local paper is SUCH a woose (?sic) when it comes to climate change —

    Climate watchers and one local horticulturalist, Paul Scannell, have noted the behaviour of up to 40 species of plants and animals which appear to think that winter is already at an end and spring has started.

    ...milder temperatures are changing the behaviour of plants and impacting upon the autumn foliage displays; and in turn will change the habits of insects and birds as they adapt to the weather changes

    Now, these apparently benign changes are crucial to the economic future of our region.

    Firstly, we need cold winters to bring snow.

    Secondly, as an area with extensive orchards of stone fruit, we need cold winters to get a good fruit set.

    Thirdly, good autumn colour drives the local tourist trade.

    So you’d think there’d be a bit more concern shown about these changes.

    So…

    The question is whether the changes are cause for concern and whether they will lead to long-term climate change.

    …isn’t a question at all.

    I’ve answered the first bit, and the second bit has been answered by over 99% of the world’s experts in this area.

    The article concludes…

    But the warm weather may be due to come to an end with the cooler temperatures due to arrive later this week.

    Oh, so that’s OK then – nothing to see, move along…

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/local-news/?page=2

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:52 am

  23. Morning

    For those interested, hilary Clinton on 7.30 to discuss her latest book. She mentions reference to JGillard and sexism in the last half of the interview

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4026461.htm

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:57 am

  24. Socrates: the state of the economy by 2016 will, as always, be determined almost entirely by factors beyond the control of the Australian Government. Maybe Abbott will get lucky, but everything I can see in the way of a global or local trend would seem to indicate otherwise.

    One of the biggest problems facing the Coalition leadership is that they don’t seem to have a clue about their relative powerlessness re the economy. They seem to be convinced that it was the marvelousness of Coalition policies – and not China’s construction boom – which made the economy so wonderful under Howard. They therefore think that if they try to repeat Howard’s 1996 dose of Budget pain – and double it for good measure – within a year or two we’ll all be living jn lotus land again.

    It’s all just part of their general cluelessness. What a bunch!

    by meher baba on Jun 17, 2014 at 7:59 am

  25. Good Morning

    MB

    Interesting view. I can agree with a lot of it. However I think you underestimate how toxic this budget is.

    You also have not directly addressed the real issue of the Abbott Government trying to shoehorn that toxic budget through the Senate.

    That reality could well see the polls never reach 50/50

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:04 am

  26. I’m surprised – and have expressed this surprise before – that Labor is in this position in the polls at this stage of the cycle. (Those who claim that this is Bad should point to their predictions that this was even a possibility eight months or so ago).

    I expected that, so soon after a landslide win, any dissatisfaction with the government would show up as a vote for the Greens or Others, and gradually, over a year or so, start drifting towards Labor.

    That Labor’s primary vote has risen – at all, let alone as well as it has – since the last election is remarkable.

    As for the ‘polls will drift back once the Budget is settled down’ view, that’s a brave prediction.

    Firstly, the polls were already heading steadily downwards for the Coalition well before the Budget. If there had been no Budget (which I know is an impossibility) and we’d drawn one of those nifty treadlines, the Coalition would still be trailing.

    Secondly, the implementation of the Budget isn’t going to result in a plus for the Coalition. It’s scared the beejeezus out of people when it’s just a collection of words on paper. When its impacts are actually being felt, it’s likely to make things worse for the Coalition rather than better. (Just as the job losses due to the closure of the auto industry are mainly conceptual atm).

    I’m not saying that the present high polling for Labor will necessarily continue unabated. What I am saying is that it’s gobsmackingly surprising that Labor IS polling highly full stop but, given it is in this position, it’s more likely than not that it will still be in the lead at the end of the year.

    by zoomster on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:05 am

  27. Mehar

    The triumvirate of Abbott, Hockey and Pyne seems increasingly toxic:

    Despite your usual press bullshit some times you are close to the mark.

    by CTar1 on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:05 am

  28. Abbott returns home and immediately seems to start salivating about another Iraq war. I don’t think there are any votes to be had in khaki politics right now: we’ve been engaged in middle eastern wars for a decade, so it’s all old hat.

    Abbott strikes me as trying to leverage some statesmanship off of talking about terrorism and war, in an attempt to scare people into rallying around the govt, and improving his leadership stocks in the process.

    Other than for that, I can’t understand why he’s even going there.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:09 am

  29. The case to be prosecuted against the Qld AG is important.

    It is not helped by low brow writing by John Birmingham

    It's almost insulting to his extraordinary powers of effing shit up to even be bothered by this latest fiasco.

    by shellbell on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:11 am

  30. Today Melissa Parke Labor MP is putting forward a motion to the party to cease support for offshore processing. It is surely to be defeated, as the majority of the party dont want to go back to their 2008 policy which saw countless drownings at sea.

    Scott Morrison has responded by stating that Labor cannot be trusted if they ever got back into power as they would most likely abandon offshore processing again.

    According to the political reporter on ABC radio, this motion is a gift for the govt.

    by victoria on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:12 am

  31. Another thing to point out. Dismiss QandA and social media even just twitter at your peril.

    Their effect is unknown but an effect nonetheless. We saw how well doing dismissal as irrelevant went for Karl Rove.

    Mark Textor did not go on twitter because its irrelevant. These are platforms where people can express themselves and organise.

    The same goes with dismissing thousands marching in the streets. Thousands marched in the street over Workchoices.

    So yes the effects can be overstated that does not make them irrelevant.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:15 am

  32. Fess@77. Abbott is attracted to war like bees to a honeypot. He loves hanging around the military (highlight of being PM he told Michelle Grattan) and he loves giving press conferences with military men standing next to him while he talks in that phonily portentous
    way, pausing every three or four words and looking up for dramatic effect.

    We saw more than enough of it with the Malaysian plane search.

    I don’t see it as a vote-winner. It all looks a bit too forced. Howard was much more of a natural in this situation, so it worked better for him

    by meher baba on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:16 am

  33. CTaR1

    Have enjoyed your sergeant pilot posts. I particularly liked the bit about them getting the best planes cos they mess with their mates.

    Twas ever thus with sergeants.

    by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:18 am

  34. guytaur:

    If Qanda was so influential we’d have had Abbott appear on there at least once by now.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:18 am

  35. victoria

    Labor should do what its membership wants. Not what the MSM is trying to push to support the Government.

    Its good that Labor is doing democracy and having a vigorous debate on forming policy within the broad church of views that is the Labor party.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:19 am

  36. sorry, Guytaur, please remind me who Karl Rove was and what happened to him with twitter and Q&A?

    by meher baba on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:20 am

  37. meher:

    Perhaps all those appearances with military (in whatever context) is an attempt to look more Prime Ministerial. Unlike Howard Abbott has never been well regarded.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:20 am

  38. Confessions

    Strange then all these Liberals going on QandA. It is just a tv show with an audience.

    So are Today, Sunrise, Insiders etc.

    The tactical team of Abbott thinking they gain more than they lose by Abbott avoiding it says a lot about them and Abbott.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:23 am

  39. Mb

    True re economy. Good or bad though, it will not be Hockey reforms making it good.

    Re Williamson, this sounds like fraud.

    Another former official from the HSU's Victorian branch, Marco Bolano, said Williamson had “fabricated financial irregularities to get rid of an official or employee who did not submit to this will”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/top-hsu-officials-intimidated-whistleblowers-royal-commission-hears-20140616-3a7t8.html#ixzz34qMGgsSx

    have a good day all.

    by Socrates on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:24 am

  40. MB

    Karl Rove GOP strategist dismissed social media as irrelevant.

    That social media undid Romney. The most famous example being the posting of the 47% comments.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:25 am

  41. MB

    Twitter is so irrelevant CNN, the BBC and the ABC post on it

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:30 am

  42. Thanks Guytaur: So you were really talking about Romney, not Rove: who in my recollection was either an unelected party official or a TV host :-) .

    The problems arising from Romney’s speech – eerily echoed by some of the stuff Hockey has been saying lately – arose more from the capability of iPhones to video stuff, rather than social media per se. I would tend to call it a “leak”.

    by meher baba on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:32 am

  43. v

    Have a look at the Tandberg cartoon

    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/victoria-police-investigate-stephen-dank-over-possible-medicare-fraud-20140616-3a8nk.html

    by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:33 am

  44. MB

    Posting videos to youtube is using social media.

    It was just the most famous example.

    The point is there is an effect. One that cannot be dismissed as irrelevant.

    If you do then as Rove proved you have ceded ground to your opponent.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:36 am

  45. MB

    A Bludger example. I do not read Newscorp articles. However I can post an article they do on Abbott’s daughter thanks to twitter.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:40 am

  46. @AP: BREAKING: President Barack Obama says up to 275 US military troops will deploy to Iraq

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:41 am

  47. guytaur:

    Sorry, but Qanda is not influential. If it was then I’d be able to not watch it and still know the next day what issues were discussed the night before.

    If it was then you can bet the LOTO would be busting a gut to appear on it when previous PMs have appeared solo on the program.

    by confessions on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:43 am

  48. MB- obviously, there will be a settling of the polls. But I’m not sure they will settle back to pre-budget levels.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:44 am

  49. confessions

    Is Sunrise or the Today show influential>What about Bolt.

    All television is influential. How influential depends on its audience.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:46 am

  50. Reading more of the Abbott/Hockey budget only shows that the lower income and small business are copping the brunt of the “heavy lifting”

    The 2% debt levy on those who earn over $180,000 is expected to affect a relatively small number of taxpayers — approximately 400,000 people

    •repeal of the loss carry-back for small companies
    •repeal of the low-income super contribution
    •repeal of the income support bonus, and
    •repeal of the schoolkids bonus
    •the tax-free threshold remaining at $18,200 instead of increasing to $19,200 from July 1, 2015

    The government will remove further indexation from payment of the Clean Energy Supplement, which is paid to recipients of all social welfare payments

    The government will cease the Seniors Supplement for holders of the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card from September 20, 2014.

    The government will maintain – in other words, freeze – eligibility thresholds for the Australian government payments for three years.

    by AussieAchmed on Jun 17, 2014 at 8:46 am

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