Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

1250 Responses

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  1. Everything, go f@ck yourself you lowlife piece of sh!t.

    by roger bottomley on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:51 pm

  2. Another, fairly obvious, business model that is in the process of collapsing is that of much of Australia’s bricks and mortar retailers. Certainly those selling anything even remotely specialist.

    Now that internet retail has taken off, a significant proportion of consumers have deserted a sector offering poor choice and mark ups that, in at least one case I’m aware of, could reach 500% over what other markets were paying.

    Most of the traditional retail sector seem to be squealing and demanding government intervention (GST threshold drop etc), which is ironic given their self proclaimed status as champions of the free-market. However, a few companies have embraced the new world and seem to be profitable and price competitive with their overseas rivals, indicating that it can be done, at least for some classes of product.

    by theintellectualbogan on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:51 pm

  3. So why the media blackout, and why the secrecy of the government over the issue? Including the coverup of the Manus Island Report?

    Last known publicly turnback is May of this year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seekers-from-two-boats-combined-onto-one-for-turnback-to-indonesia-20140506-zr5kb.html

    So the fact they lied to Australian’s over the stopped for 6 months is just another failier of this government.

    Among the many lies of this government (debt, funding, NBN, etc).

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:52 pm

  4. Hang on a second, zoidlord……I think I am sensing a trend in your comments.

    Do you not like this government?

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:54 pm

  5. 499
    Everything

    Non military national service…..BRING IT ON!

    Civilian conscription…yes, for sure, bound to be really popular…and yet another way in which “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government…”

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:57 pm

  6. @Mod Lib/503

    It’s called the government having priorities wrong, not about personal favors with business leaders.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:58 pm

  7. roger bottomley
    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 10:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything, go f@ck yourself you lowlife piece of sh!t.

    No idea why you are so worked up. What is wrong with non-military national service?

    Get these young folk understanding the concept of one for all and all for one.

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 10:58 pm

  8. Just reading a piece about BBC Newsnight presenter Kirsty Wark.

    She made this observation about politicians on the program:

    “we’re getting big interviews again, because I think the parties realise there’s lot to be gained from a rigorous interview,” says Wark. “It was Michael Forsyth who told me that rigour puts a politician on their mettle, and if they know their stuff and are telling the truth and not seeking to obfuscate, they do better than in a soft sofa interview.”

    Food for thought for a few people in Australia.

    I know the Tories hated Kerry O’brien with a passion over his jousts with Howard but I was always left with the impression the rodent enjoyed the contest. He knew that if he could hold his own with Red Kerry, and mostly he did, the rest was a walk in the park.

    by rossmcg on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:00 pm

  9. Civilian conscription…yes, for sure, bound to be really popular…and yet another way in which “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government…”

    Ah, so this is where Gina will get her $2 / day workers is it??

    Earn, Learn, and then be Exploited.

    by imacca on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:00 pm

  10. A bit of late night fishing, I see, mod lib.

    by nappin on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:02 pm

  11. I actually thought Carnegie spoke well on Lateline. I’d need a lot more convincing of the headline ‘clickbait’ compulsory ‘citizen’ duty idea, but I got the impression it was intended more to provoke discussion about Australian civic culture than to necessarily be taken seriously.

    And otherwise he made some good points.

    by Jackol on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:03 pm

  12. 506
    Everything

    roger bottomley

    No idea why you are so worked up. What is wrong with non-military national service?

    Get these young folk understanding the concept of one for all and all for one.

    So much for social mobility, opportunity and reward. Instead there will be submission and suppression of choice…yet another means by which we can be assured “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government.”

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:03 pm

  13. Get these young folk understanding the concept of one for all and all for one.

    Says he who believes in all for the rich and the rich for themselves.

    Clown.

    by FarQU on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:04 pm

  14. Everything

    It is a very, very silly idea, because it is not borne of necessity. If for example we had a major flood, cyclone etc then I would support such an idea – but I would not NEED to because as Brisbane flood showed, when there was need the young kids came out in force. There were kids and students shovellng muck, filling sandbags etc.

    You cannot create community spirit in vacuum, people need to share the sentiment.

    by daretotread on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:04 pm

  15. @imacca/508

    Nah, that’s Gina’s Green Army.

    Not even paid minimum wages, wages are probably not regulated with cost of living.

    And no protection from the Commonwealth.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:04 pm

  16. Actually the best thing for civic culture in Australia is the Abbott and Jokey show. They are doing well at uniting the population in shared hared.

    by daretotread on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:06 pm

  17. Everything @ 506:

    Can you tell me which provision of the Constitution would give the Commonwealth the power to legislate for non-military national service?

    In the absence of a Commonwealth power, maybe the States would have the power so to legislate, but any attempt to proceed along those lines would undoubtedly divide the country into “slave” and “non-slave” states, which didn’t work so well in 19th century America.

    by pedant on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:06 pm

  18. 506
    Everything

    What is wrong with non-military national service?]

    It is most unlikely The Commonwealth has the power to compel civilian conscription.

    I thought the LNP were supposed to stand for personal freedom; for non-interference of the State in the lives of individuals. Was this bloke drunk?

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:09 pm

  19. FarQU
    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Get these young folk understanding the concept of one for all and all for one.

    Says he who believes in all for the rich and the rich for themselves.

    Who does? Me?

    Clown.

    That is not a nice thing to say.

    So much hatred and anger here. Do you guys not get out much?

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:09 pm

  20. Daretoread

    Exactly. People young and old will pitch in to help whenever it us needed.the brisbane floods are the perfect example. It is an Australian thing.

    But if some Tory decides for some weird ideological reason that young people need to give a period of their life to some form of national service, be it civil of military, I would predict mass civil disobedience.

    by rossmcg on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:11 pm

  21. Get these young folk understanding the concept of one for all and all for one.

    Perhaps what we need is National Service for Corporates, Liberals and the aspirant middle class – they seem to be the ones struggling with the notion of giving a shit about other people.

    by FarQU on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:12 pm

  22. pedant
    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 11:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything @ 506:

    Can you tell me which provision of the Constitution would give the Commonwealth the power to legislate for non-military national service?

    No, I can’t.

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:13 pm

  23. Clowns are nice.

    And who says young people don’t get concepts of generosity? I believe the more money a society and individuals have the more selfish they tend to get.

    by FarQU on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:15 pm

  24. I thought the LNP were supposed to stand for personal freedom

    Of course they do. They stand for the freedom of the “LNP Donor Class” to pay sweet FA tax, and have access to a pool of cheap or no-cost labor to screw over.

    Oh, and for their right to be paid squillions to hump each other and produce rent supported heirs to the Donor Class.

    by imacca on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:16 pm

  25. @michaelkoziol: No less than an entire page attempting to refute @ABCmediawatch in Wednesday’s @Australian http://t.co/hkd28k6WrM

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:16 pm

  26. briefly
    ..... “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government.”

    Indeed, unemployment is lower under LNP governments, inflation is lower, interest rates are lower and average non-farm wage rises are higher.

    So you are more likely to have a job, earn more in your job, and be able to buy more when the LNP is in power.

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:16 pm

  27. briefly@504


    499
    Everything

    Non military national service…..BRING IT ON!


    Civilian conscription…yes, for sure, bound to be really popular…and yet another way in which “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government…”

    There is a small Constitutional impediment too I believe.

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:18 pm

  28. ML, it does get a little turgid here at times. But there are things to be learnt as well … ocassionaly.

    by nappin on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:19 pm

  29. Everything @ 521: Thanks. I suspect nobody can, including Mr Carnegie. On that basis his idea would seem to be nothing more than another pointless brainf**t, of the type by which we seem to be being bombarded almost every day.

    by pedant on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:20 pm

  30. ET

    Workchoices proves you totally wrong. As does this budget. Its going to be fun watching PUP, Greens and Labor blocking a lot of it.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:20 pm

  31. 518....Everything

    The days of conscript labour – very happily – are long behind us. What is going on inside the minds of the Tories? Don’t they understand we live in a dynamic economy, characterised in particular by highly mobile capital and a correspondingly free labour market – a market in which workers may not be indentured but are guaranteed both horizontal and vertical mobility and enjoy certain statutory protections of their rights to organise and to prevent their exploitation.

    What is it about this that the LNP do not get? Should capital be marshaled in the same way as young workers?

    Where does this authoritarian streak emanate from?

    Isn’t it just another way for the LNP to depress wages, and thereby ensure “Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government.”

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:21 pm

  32. nappin@509

    A bit of late night fishing, I see, mod lib.

    Mad Lib is like a vampire emerging at night from the crypt also known as the Liberal Party. :evil:

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:21 pm

  33. FarQU
    Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2014 at 11:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Clowns are nice.

    Oh, OK. Fair enough. My mistake. My apologies.

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:22 pm

  34. guytaur @ 521: Everyone here is so nasty about The Australian. As one of the few broadsheets left, it is ideal for wrapping up kitchen scraps, dog waste etc; and has been especially handy in Canberra since the banning of supermarket plastic bags.

    by pedant on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:23 pm

  35. YIKES!

    I have been called many things here, but never a vampire.

    Congratulations bemused, you take the honours tonight for the most imaginative personal insult!

    :devil:

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  36. Still spinning the intellectual dishonesty around those stats modern lib. As the person who wrote the paper you get them from clearly stated – you cannot credit a particular government with those figures. Once those figures are compared to the international economic situation at the time the differences disappear.

    The only honest conclusion that can be drawn is that both governments over time have achieved similar broad economic outcomes.

    Given the amount of bellyaching from Liberals such as yourself the fact that you haven’t achieved better outcomes is telling.

    The only conclusion that can be drawn is that governments, regulated workplaces and redistributive tax systems contribute to prosperity.

    Why you would wish to tear these things down as you now do is beyond comprehension.

    by FarQU on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  37. 525
    Everything

    None of these claims are true under this Government. Real wages are falling. Real labour demand is falling in both absolute and per capita terms. As well, interest rates and inflation were both lower under the last Government than under its Tory predecessor, as were personal tax collections.

    There is no getting away from it: Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal government. The current mob are doing their best to institutionalise this.

    by briefly on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  38. @Mod Lib/525

    Unemployment is not lower and inflation is not lower.

    Infact Inflation rose slightly in April (it rose to 2.9%) because of fudging of the books by Coalition Party.

    Policies set by Coalition Party Government via the harsh cuts to Newstart and DSP will mean higher Unemployment.

    Inbetween jobs is 52 week waiting list.

    by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  39. So right, bemused. The Liberal party my father votes for died long ago. The crypt is not a happy place for the walking dead … like Malcolm (I’ll do what I have to stay here) Turnbull. Is black your colour ML?

    by nappin on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:29 pm

  40. ET

    Dee Madigan put it well on QandA. I have changed the language slightly for moderation.

    This budget cannot be sold. You cannot sell a turd wrapped in glitter. This budget is a turd.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:29 pm

  41. Mad Lib@534

    YIKES!

    I have been called many things here, but never a vampire.

    Congratulations bemused, you take the honours tonight for the most imaginative personal insult!

    I owe it all to you for providing the inspiration. You do it so well.

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:30 pm

  42. Goodnight all.

    by bemused on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:31 pm

  43. Goodnight bemused

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:32 pm

  44. goodnight bemused…..and please take that silver bullet and those wooden stakes with you!

    by Everything on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:33 pm

  45. As I heard on RN this morning … everyone knows that vampires are extinct :)

    by nappin on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:35 pm

  46. I think non-punitive (optional sign on, but attractive compared to the dole – not a punishment) ‘civic service’ projects should be made available – with local government and communities having a share of this, as well as larger state and federal programs. think of the useful social infrastructure that could be made and services delivered – bike tracks, building low cost public housing and fixing up pensioners places, installing pink batts, putting in proper broadband and getting people connected, installing low water using fittings, solar panels, clean ups, tree planting, etc etc. there should also be tax breaks for employed people who sign on to do periods of such civic works. we could cut costs for most and build a better nation. Thing is, it may cost government more than the dole because we as a society would be getting more out of it and the gov should pay people more to do the work. the great ocean road and snowy mountain scheme cost more directly than they would have had all the workers been at home on the dole, but look at the assets we got out of this. Getting people to work communally is great for the mental health and esteem of unemployed and less employable people – but is should not be slave labour, it should not be a punishment and it should be meaningful work that makes people feel part of the community, not punished by it. it could be a great way to head towards the Scandinavian social democratic road instead of the US road we seem intent to follow. It should not be compulsory, but it should be more attractive, and I have little problem with people who have some capacity to work being pushed that way of they are reluctant. I’m a ‘small s’ socialist for the most part and part of the deal is “from each according to their abilities…” in my book. There – I agreed with mod lib, scary.

    by Sir sustainable future on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:39 pm

  47. Swamprat

    Re Scotland, will be there is a months time, to see my 3 half Scottish half aussie grandsons, plus parents, you are right about education. Some of them museums in Edinburgh are fascinating re what Scottish people have achieved

    by mari on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:41 pm

  48. @Salon: Why I left libertarianism: An ethical critique of a limited ideology http://t.co/PJwmMiMa5w

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:42 pm

  49. None of these claims are true under this Government. Real wages are falling. Real labour demand is falling in both absolute and per capita terms. As well, interest rates and inflation were both lower under the last Government than under its Tory predecessor, as were personal tax collections.

    and when they crash us into recession, they will blame labor and crow about low interest rates, and use the recession to force an even nastier form of work choices through by stealth.

    hockey will keep just making any old shit up when he feels like it (e.g. workers working a month a year to support welfare recipients – class war? where’s that coming from?).

    by Sir sustainable future on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:44 pm

  50. Just on the news. PUP like the Greens oppose privatisation. So it will be Labor Abbott will have to negotiate with to get that part of his budget through.

    As a result a lot of the NSW budget will be thrown into disarray as well.

    by guytaur on Jun 17, 2014 at 11:48 pm

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