Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

Federal Election 2016

Jun 16, 2014

Seat of the week: Murray

The northern Victorian seat of Murray is one of a number of seats in rural New South Wales and Victoria which have drifted from the Nationals to the Liberals after long-serving sitting members retired, Sharman Stone having secured the seat once held by Jack McEwen in 1996.

User login status :

Share

Blue numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Murray covers central northern Victoria including a 200 kilometre stretch of the river that bears its name, from Gunbower east through Echuca to Yarrawonga and Bundalong. From there it extends southwards into the Goulburn Valley region as far as Inglewood in the west and Nagambie and Euroa in the east. Its largest population centre by a considerable margin is Shepparton, home to about a third of its population, followed by Echuca, which accounts for about 10%. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its boundaries resembled those of Echuca which existed from federation until its abolition in 1937, when its territory was divided between Bendigo in the west and Indi in the east. Its dimensions have not substantially changed at any time since 1949, apart from a slight reorientation westwards when the electorate of Wimmera was abolished in 1984.

The area in question was the domain of the Country Party from its formation in 1920 until 1996, when Sharman Stone won Murray for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd. John McEwen began his federal parliamentary career as the member for Echuca in 1934 before moving to Indi when it was abolished the following term, then transferred to Murray in 1949 and remained there until his retirement in 1971. McEwen served as leader of the Country Party after 1958 and, for three weeks following Harold Holt’s disappearance at the end of 1967, Prime Minister. McEwen was succeeded on his retirement in 1971 by Bruce Lloyd, who held the seat until 1996. In a sadly typical outcome for the Nationals, the seat fell to the Liberals when Lloyd retired in 1996, Sharman Stone outpolling the Nationals candidate 43.2% to 29.7% and prevailing by 3.7% after the distribution of preferences. The Liberals had intermittently fielded candidates against Lloyd throughout his career, but always finished third behind Labor.

Sharman Stone served as a parliamentary secretary from after the 1998 election until January 2006, when she was promoted to the junior ministry as Workforce Participation Minister. After the 2007 election defeat she assumed environment, heritage, the arts and indigenous affairs, the first named being shared with shadow cabinet member Greg Hunt, before being promoted to shadow cabinet in the immigration and citizenship portfolio when Malcolm Turnbull became leader in September 2008. However, she was demoted to the outer shadow ministry position of early childhood education and childcare when Turnbull was replaced by Tony Abbott in December 2009, having supported Turnbull during Abbott’s leadership challenge, and relegated to the back bench after the 2010 election. In February 2014, Stone accused Abbott of Joe Hockey of lying about union conditions for workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton after the government’s rejection of a bid for $25 million in assistance put the future of its 2700 jobs in doubt. When asked at the time if she intended to remain in the Liberal Party, Stone said only that it was “to be seen how things pan out”.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

Get a free trial to post comments
More from William Bowe

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

598 comments

598 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Murray

  1. ausdavo

    I guess we have to believe what the Murdoch papers tell us…
    Abbott’s highly covered overseas trip was a raging success?

    By any objective analysis there appears to be little new that came out of this trip. Abbott made his usual gaffes and attended various events and meetings where it appeared that laughing at his own jokes is becoming more common. Little else occurred.

    Being wedged on climate change is hardly a successful outcome and attending the opening of Wall Street of little consequence.

    To keep his record intact I invite our resident LieNP apologists to provide their points of success (but please, not to simply parrot that the newspapers said it was).

    Any takers?

  2. AussieAchmed

    NATIONALS leader Warren Truss reckons Clive Palmer could go the way of other political “saviours” such as Pauline Hanson.

    He said those who voted for him in protest were ignoring their obligations to democracy and putting their country at risk.

    Reckon Truss believes those who voted anything but for one of the three Coalition parties ignored their obligations

  3. lizzie

    guytaur

    More Hockey fabrications (aka lies). His whole Budget is built on a web of deceit.

    [The report’s author, Associate Professor Roger Wilkins, said Australia was experiencing its lowest level of welfare reliance in decades, possibly since the 1980s.

    ‘‘I’m absolutely bewildered by Hockey’s obsession on welfare reliance in Australia,’’ he said. ‘‘It’s lower than it’s been in a couple of decades, possibly longer.’’]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/working-age-australians-have-become-far-less-reliant-on-welfare-payments-new-figures-show-20140615-zs8cv.html#ixzz34k9rTtcQ

  4. Socrates

    Morning all. Guytaur, lizzie I think the only welfare crisis Hockey is concerned about is that there are not enough poor people desperate enough to do his house keeping for a pittance.

    But yes once again it is a systematic refutation of another budget lie.

  5. AussieAchmed

    It says a lot about the media when they sold the “budget emergency” lie instead of reporting facts.

    During Labor’s term;
    Australia moved from 15th to 12th biggest economy
    GDP rating went from 17th to 8th
    2013 number one for median wealth
    3rd Lowest net debt among OECD countries
    low unemployment
    low inflation low official interest rates.
    3 x Triple A ratings

    According to the media and Liberals all these are “bad” things.

  6. sprocket_

    Today’s first WTF story from the Abbott inner circle, prominent in the Murdoch tabloids. Didn’t he kiss Rupert’s backside long enough?

    [A SINGLE mum has lost a legal stoush with the Prime Minister’s daughter after Frances Abbott broke the lease at her Melbourne rental property.
    A personal visit to the Prahran flat by the PM, as well as an assessment by the Australian Federal Police and Victoria Police, led to Frances Abbott withdrawing from the agreement three days after she signed the one-year contract.
    Landlady Janine Moussi claimed she was entitled to about $1000 — an additional month’s rent — and compensation to cover the period the property was without tenants.
    But the Herald Sun can ­reveal Ms Abbott’s bond was returned and most of the first month’s rent after she claimed she didn’t feel secure in the inner-city flat.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbotts-daughter-frances-wins-legal-stoush-over-melbourne-rental-property/story-fncynjr2-1226955411708

  7. meher baba

    Good grief! Horrible news from Iraq today and then, of all people, up pops Tony – “Weapons of Mass Destruction” – Blair.

    Has the man no shame? STFU and go away: you’ve done enough damage!

  8. Socrates

    Meanwhile Oxfam shows where the real tax problem lies: Australia’s nine richest persons pay little tax and have net wealth equal to the bottom 20% or 4.5 million people.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/oxfam-survey-finds-widening-gap-between-australias-rich-and-poor-20140615-3a5vd.html

  9. Socrates

    MB

    If Blair did not have a guilty conscience he would not have needed to say anything. He is obviously defensive because he knows his terrible error to support the Bush Jr invasion will tarnish his reputation as PM forever.

  10. Socrates

    Of course, Tony Blair is not the only person who feels the need to defend a past lie about the Iraq invasion. Julie Bishop weighs in on the same subject on behalf of the Howard cabinet, who also have blood on their hands over that decision, and noses longer than an AWB officials’.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/iraq-crisis-foreign-minister-julie-bishop-defends-removal-of-saddam-hussein-20140615-zs8kd.html

  11. lizzie

    I hate the way that Abbott immediately blundered into “full support” for America.

    [Australia is now the seventh-largest importer of major arms in the world and the biggest customer of the largest weapons producer, the US.

    Australia buys 10 per cent of all American weapons exports.
    Figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) show Australian imports of major arms – large-scale military materiel such as warships, fighter planes and tanks – jumped by 83 per cent in the five years to 2013, a reaction to increasingly volatile Asian relations and fears the region is set on the path of a dangerous arms race.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-buys-up-enters-asian-arms-race-20140615-3a5xk.html#ixzz34kGn5yiM

  12. CTar1

    US Politics:

    [When Will Republican Leaders Fight Back?

    If the GOP is unwilling to stand up to radicals, it might as well just rename itself the Committee to Elect Hillary Clinton. ]

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/06/when-will-republican-leaders-fight-back/372661/

    😀

  13. lizzie

    Bloody sooks.

    [Opposition environment spokesman Mark Butler said when legislation to repeal the former government’s carbon package returned to Parliament in the next fortnight, Labor would vote to abolish the carbon tax and for an emissions trading scheme.

    But he signalled it may dump an ETS as the central plank of the party’s policy depending on the international and domestic policy landscape between now and 2016.]

    http://m.afr.com/p/national/labor_may_drop_emissions_trading_YRw79NgrtPJZZciXWSJelJ

  14. guytaur

    lizzie

    Dumping an ETS as policy will mean more votes for the Greens less for Labor.

    I don’t think Labor are that stupid. Especially after all that pain gone through to get an ETS in.

  15. Bushfire Bill

    Well, THIS is interesting:

    [Abbott government is now paying the legal bills for Liberal turncoat Peter Slipper in the long-running sexual harassment suit bought by his former staffer James Ashby.

    In another strange twist in the case, The Australian understands the commonwealth has indemnified Mr Slipper for what is likely to be more than $1 million in legal bills and possible compensation in the sexual harassment case that has been running for more than two years.

    Attorney-General George Brandis, the man who led the charge against Mr Slipper and former attorney-general Nicola Roxon in opposition, has refused to comment on the deal, but it is believed Mr Slipper is now indemnified by the commonwealth in the dispute. Senator Brandis’s office directed questions to Special Minister of State Michael Ronaldson who, in turn directed questions on the issue back to Senator Brandis’s ­office. Neither office has given any comment on why the commonwealth has now agreed to support Mr Slipper ­financially.

    https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnews%2Ftaxpayers-pick-up-peter-slippers-legal-bills%2Fstory-e6frg6n6-1226955320405&ei=thGeU66LLI2jkQX7yYHgBQ&usg=AFQjCNE6PJDvZZAwUrkeUZQ5VyDIbNHvAQ&bvm=bv.68911936,d.dGI ]

    I wonder what Mr. Slipper has on them?

  16. sprocket_

    The curious case of Frances Abbott and NewsCorpse. The attached screenshot shows she first “lost” the rental bond dispute, and an hour later was changed to “won” the dispute.

    An honest subbie somewhere in the bowels has red ears

    @johndory49: #Murdoch #Abbott:
    Left: Story corrected in 1hr serving interests.
    Right: defiantly uncorrected after 14 days.
    #auspol http://t.co/mwNmcZZXju

  17. sprocket_

    BB

    Not sure what the Government Gazette is up to with Slipper? Lies, incompetence or wielding some axe?

    Slipper was indemnified by the outgoing ALP government. Not by the incoming one.

  18. lizzie

    No decisions this govt makes are at professional level.

    [But while it was not uncommon for governments to use public money to prop up their own electorates, he said the government had to decide whether it was going to be political or professional.

    “A real truth is that there’s always a bit of a silver lining or a bit of gold plating around your own electorates {but} I’d like to point out that a three to one ratio is to a new level,” he said.

    Professor Currie said Australia’s independent body for infrastructure decisions, Infrastructure Australia, was not being used by the current government to decide which projects to fund.

    “The question is whether they want to be a professional government or they want to pork barrel, and whether we’ll forge the idea of trying to be professional about how we manage resources or just do it on a political basis.
    “I don’t think that’s how a country should be run.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/coalition-electorates-favoured-3-to-1-in-abbott-government-infrastructure-spend-20140615-zs675.html#ixzz34kLbIamS

  19. zoomster

    [Asked if that meant the policy might not be an ETS, Mr Butler said he was “not going to indicate one way or the other what we’re going to do because we will do that in a deliberative way” but that the party would look at “all policy options”. ]

    Can people please re read my posts about the Labor policy process?

    It would be foolish to lock the party into any position this far out from an election.

    I would also remind people that every time someone on the Labor side has even twitched when discussing the ETS, we’ve been confidently told by the media that that means the ALP is going to walk away from it.

    At present, all policy options are open – exactly what Butlet is saying. He’s leaving the door open in case the world situation changes between now and the next election, and a better mechanism than the ETS comes along.

    Labor will go to the next election with a policy that supports the best method of reducing carbon emissions to the desired target within the designated timeline.

    If that’s an ETS, then that’s what Labor will be supporting.

  20. lizzie

    [A massive Chinese state-owned company has been given $25 million by the Victorian and federal governments to develop more Latrobe Valley brown coal.

    Shanghai Electric will be announced on Monday as the final winner of government grants for new brown coal pilot projects. It is promising to build a $119 million demonstration plant to process coal into briquettes.

    The Napthine government wants to spark wider development and export of Victoria’s vast brown coal reserves. But environmentalists want brown coal phased out because of its high greenhouse gas emissions when burnt, even compared with more common black coal.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/chinese-company-gets-25m-from-napthine-and-abbott-governments-for-latrobe-valley-brown-coal-project-20140615-zs8eg.html#ixzz34kMwlLSP

  21. zoomster

    [The government has been accused of overstating the depth of its consultation with farmers and rural women over its controversial paid parental leave scheme.]

    [..acting prime minister Warren Truss insisted last week that the final shape of the scheme had not been determined because the government was ”talking with the National Farmers’ Federation and rural women’s groups”.]

    [..the NFF has never been consulted on the paid parental leave scheme, nor has Australia’s largest women’s group, the Country Women’s Association.]

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2353455/rural-groups-bemused-by-warren-truss-paid-parental-leave-consultation-claims/?cs=12

  22. Socrates

    Lizzie 21

    The coalition has been guilty of a highly politicised infrastructure spend. Many things are needed due to population growth, but they have chosen to fund the ones needed in liberal electorates.

  23. Jackol

    zoomster – do you have any comment on the ALP waving the Green Army legislation through?

    I don’t see why the ALP would want to do this for any positive motives.

  24. lizzie

    zoomster

    That’s all very logical, but in the meantime people who do not follow the intricacies of Labor policy-making will tend to lose faith.

  25. lizzie

    Socrates

    Unprofessional in every way. That’s the Coalition govt for you.

  26. guytaur

    @RawStory: Fox News freaks out over 4Chan hoax that feminists are plotting to end Father’s Day http://t.co/v2GYSy9Khp

  27. zoomster

    Jackol

    it wasn’t my impression that they were waving it through. The statement was, I thought, that they weren’t necessarily against it.

    My tip would be that they’ll put up a series of amendments which (unfortunately) won’t get up, and then walk away from it.

  28. Socrates

    Lizzie
    Indeed. They cannot even lie cleverly. Speaking of which, back to Julie Bishop’s lie de jour about the Howard government decision to invade Iraq, she said nobody then could have predicted this outcome. I beg to differ, being one of thousands of people who marched against it in 2003.
    [According to someone called Paul Lambert on Comment is Free:
    All 16 U.S. Intelligence agencies, told George W. Bush in January 2003 that:

    ‘the invasion of Iraq . . . would be likely to spark violent sectarian divides and provide al-Qaeda with new opportunities in Iraq and Afghanistan . . . Analysts warned that war in Iraq also could provoke Iran to assert its regional influence and “probably would result in a surge of political Islam and increased funding for terrorist groups” in the Muslim world’.]
    http://michaelrosenblog.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/who-predicted-todays-iraq-disasters-us.html

  29. Jackol

    The Shadow Minister for Environment has indicated that Labor will support the Coalition’s Green Army Bill when the Senate votes on it in the next fortnight.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-13/nrn-green-army-go-ahead/5520566

  30. zoomster

    lizzie

    They might, but then most people don’t pay attention to policy details until the election is in the air.

    We get back to Gillard’s roadblock metaphor — it’s not the journey that’s important, it’s the destination.

    Labor is commited to action on climate change. It will commit to the policy that looks like the best way to deliver that, which is highly likely to be the ETS.

  31. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The New Matilda has an alternative view to Abbott’s self-proclaimed very successful overseas trip.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/15/tony-abbotts-overseas-jaunt-i-call-shenanigans
    Something to be proud of during a “budget emergency”?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-buys-up-enters-asian-arms-race-20140615-3a5xk.html
    An interesting study by Ross Gittins on the mobility of Australians – or lack thereof.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/we-are-a-nation-of-stayathomes-20140615-3a5s3.html
    This really needs to be cracked down upon.
    http://www.goodfood.com.au/good-food/food-news/cheap-imported-honey-might-not-come-from-bees-watchdog-warns-20140615-zs8j1.html
    The Climate Institute exhorts Labor to not back away from emissions trading.
    https://theconversation.com/climate-institute-tells-labor-dont-retreat-from-emissions-trading-policy-28028
    The problems for some of retiring at the age of 70.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/retiring-at-70-will-be-tough-for-those-who-already-struggle-at-age-60-20140615-zs8bp.html
    The Greens draw a line in the Senate sand over clean energy.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/greens-move-to-block-clean-energy-cuts-setting-up-double-dissolution-trigger
    More underhanded work by the Sydney maaates!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tony-kelly-rezoned-botany-port-land-20140615-zs3sq.html
    Right on my doorstep this happened/ Why 3 am FFS?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seeker-babies-secretly-moved-to-christmas-island-20140615-3a5j3.html
    Can-Do is playing a blinder in putting the legal profession offside.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/tim-carmody-unrest-grows-over-appointment-of-queensland-chief-justice

  32. lizzie

    [Under mounting pressure from his own backbench over perceived inequities in Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s pet policy, acting prime minister Warren Truss insisted last week that the final shape of the scheme had not been determined because the government was ”talking with the National Farmers’ Federation and rural women’s groups”.

    But Fairfax Media has confirmed the leadership of the NFF has never been consulted on the paid parental leave scheme, nor has Australia’s largest women’s group, the Country Women’s Association.

    The NFF doesn’t even have a current policy position on paid parental leave.

    Asked to clarify his comments, Mr Truss’s office said the National Party leader was referring to a recent meeting between the NFF and the prime minister’s office.

    But that meeting was held more than four months ago, on February 11 – well before Nationals such as NSW senator John Williams and Queensland MP George Christensen started agitating publicly against the leave scheme.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rural-groups-bemused-by-warren-truss-paid-parental-leave-consultation-claims-20140615-3a5tq.html#ixzz34kPtg5nL

  33. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    The data puts the lie to Hockey’s “lifters and leaners” crap. In truth his ideological concern is about the amount of equality relative to other countries.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/working-age-australians-have-become-far-less-reliant-on-welfare-payments-new-figures-show-20140615-zs8cv.html
    If we want to change politics in Australia we must do it ourselves.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/15/we-cant-rely-on-experts-and-mandarins-to-reform-our-politics
    Bob Ellis on Hockey’s numeracy.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/06/16/joe-and-the-numeracy-gene/
    Miscarriage – the last taboo.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-last-taboo-lets-talk-about-miscarriage-20140613-zs6jd.html
    Rural groups call out Truss for telling porkies over the degree of consultation over the PPL.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rural-groups-bemused-by-warren-truss-paid-parental-leave-consultation-claims-20140615-3a5tq.html
    Some interesting infrastructure figures that suggest pork barrelling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/coalition-electorates-favoured-3-to-1-in-abbott-government-infrastructure-spend-20140615-zs675.html
    Hockey’s budget shockwaves being felt in NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-budget-cops-a-hit-from-joe-hockey-20140615-zs8k9.html
    Is it laziness or lack of confidence or both that has prevented “urgent” legislation’s presentation so close to July 1?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/delays-in-spending-cuts-to-push-budget-further-into-red-20140615-3a5to.html
    Despite Abbott’s explanation of it being a “terminological clarification” it still leaves us like a shag on a rock.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-denies-making-jerusalem-policy-on-the-run-20140615-zs8az.html

  34. BK

    Section 3 . . .

    Clive Palmer in an op-ed gives his stirring pre-match speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/clive-palmer-my-party-will-fight-changes-to-medicare-in-the-senate-20140613-zs6v2.html
    Bruce Petty has picked up on Abbott’s frenetic hand movements.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/06/16/5513584/ac-petty-defcon-20140616065431469320-620×0.jpg
    Pat Campbell and the genie coming out of the bottle in Iraq.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    David Rowe conflates the World Cup with the Middle East situation.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  35. lizzie

    [grace pettigrew ‏
    MGrattan says Govt will only consider #DD if repeal of Carbon Tax is blocked in Senate. Ergo #PUP should block repeal #auspol @abcnews24 ]

  36. meher baba

    So what the heck is the story with F Abbott and the unit.

    Did she sign the lease and then get told by the AFP she wasn’t safe there? OK, fair enough.

    Did she then move out and refuse to make rental payments until the property was re-let as she would have been required to do under the lease?

    Did the landlady take her to court and lose the case on some technical ground.?

    You’d have thought her family would have paid up just to keep the whole thing out of the papers.

    So what’s going on exactly?

  37. guytaur

    Doors started.

    Hunt on 24 now

  38. Socrates

    This article by Juan Cole (highly recommended source on Iraq) goes into the Bush lies about Iraq and Blair’s possible motives in agreeing with them. Blair was lobbied by BP in 2002.
    http://www.juancole.com/2014/06/quagmire-lawbreaking-deception.html

    What was Howard’s motivation? We got nothing out of it or that lousy US “free trade” deal? Did Bush have dirt on Howard? Did the US have knowledge of the AWB bribery scandal that might have embarrassed Howard ministers?

    Probably not. Why believe the coercion explanation, when mutual love explains everything. Howard loved Bush’s intellect and dynamic leadership. Bush loved Howard’s honesty and charisma. You can easily see why we went to war with two such trusting souls in control.

  39. lizzie

    When honey ain’t honey.

    [‘Victoria Honey’, imported from Turkey, is one of four products identified by the Australian Honey Bee Industry Council as potentially breaching labelling laws amid claims it isn’t made from honey.

    The low-cost one kilogram honey tubs have been found in fruit shops around the country and are part of a sticky flood of similar products competing with local producers.

    According to the industry, more than 200 tonnes of allegedly substandard honey have been imported since complaints were first lodged a couple of years ago.

    Tests have been sent to Germany for analysis, with the industry saying the result show the products do not contain honey and are most likely corn syrup. ]

    http://ow.ly/y3GIv

  40. zoomster

    Jackol

    and, as I said, the support is conditional on some issues being worked through.

    There’s not much point doing the playing nice thing if you single beforehand that the roadblocks you’re putting in the way are going to be insurmountable.

    Labor wants to appear atm as if they’re considering each issue on its merits. That means singling out some which they’ll let through IF certain conditions are met.

  41. guytaur

    Things are changing. Press asking hard questions

  42. guytaur

    “@latikambourke: Greg Hunt not denying Fairfax’s story that he promised the solar industry $$ but was rolled by PM Abbott. ‘Difficult decisions’”

  43. Socrates

    When something goes wrong, get expert advice from the idiots who caused the problem.
    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/06/15/sunday-shows-turn-to-discredited-iraq-war-archi/199735

    Have a good day all.

  44. guytaur

    “@latikambourke: Asked if it was humiliating to be rolled by his senior colleagues Greg Hunt says the government had to make difficult decisions re budget.”

  45. guytaur

    “@latikambourke: Clive Palmer arrives in a com car. Says he’s never said he wouldn’t use them.”

  46. Jackol

    Zoomster – sure, but Butler (whom I have rated in the past) has some very odd direct quotes in that ABC article.

    It’s all very well leaving the door open symbolically, but Butler is basically saying “yeah it’s all probably fine and we’ll pass it”.

    Shadow Environment Minister Mark Butler says he has minor concerns with the Green Army, but he’s confident they’ll be addressed by the Department.

    “Some other questions about the interaction of the payment system with other entitlements, but I’m pretty confident that we’re able to work through that. I imagine this bill will get passage in the Senate.”

    There’s not a lot of foreshadowing of significant bargaining/stumbling blocks.

    As you say, it all depends on what they actually do in the Senate. But I don’t understand the political strategy Butler is applying here, and he’s presumably not going rogue so this would be the strategy of the ALP leadership. The Green Army is a dog of an idea. I don’t see why anyone from the ALP should be talking positively about it. I do have a suspicion as to why the ALP might pass it, but it’s a paranoid dark suspicion.

    I will be very unimpressed if the ALP vote the Green Army into existence, and severely downgrade my opinion of Butler and Shorten.

    (And of course all my previous complaints about potentially walking away from emissions trading still stand – but I’ll wait and see what happens there. I agree – on the ETS at the next election issue – that Butler is simply keeping options open, and that’s fine.)

  47. guytaur

    @strom_m: #1 … @smh takes top place in Nielsen unique audience rankings http://t.co/ymgNrXCW36 via @mumbrella

  48. confessions

    [“@latikambourke: Clive Palmer arrives in a com car. Says he’s never said he wouldn’t use them.”]

    I’ve got a feeling he may well have.

  49. lizzie

    Jackol
    I agree with all your comments on the Green Army.

  50. zoomster

    Jackol

    we seem to have these periodic outbreaks of angst amongst Labor supporters – the media runs a story saying (for example) that Labor will vote with the government to repeal carbon pricing, everyone gets in a lather about it, and then it doesn’t happen.

    Labor has said quite explicitly that they’re going to look at each Budget measure on its merits. That requires a flexible approach, including signalling that they might pass some (with changes).

    This is exactly what Butler is saying. Let’s see what the changes actually are before deciding that it’s a bad idea.

    And I would also add that OF COURSE Labor is going to play down the size of the changes required. The image Labor is trying to construct is that of a positive, co operative Opposition who puts up reasonable changes to legislation and has to reluctantly walk away from the deal when these aren’t accepted. (Thus also painting the government as unable to negotiate…)

    You can’t paint that picture if you start off with the position that the changes you want are impossible to achieve.

  51. lizzie

    zoomster

    When Greg Hunt is making such a fool of himself, I don’t think it’s the right time for Butler to appear to be weakening. I understand what you’re saying, but it’s the wrong vibe.

  52. lizzie

    Laura Tingle is usually pretty straight.

    [‏@ColouredView 10m
    Laura Tingle in #AFR reports ALP going wobbly on #ETS & #carbon pricing.
    Are you both inept & bereft of any judgement @Mark_Butler_MP?]

  53. Jackol

    Zoomster – again, the tone of Butler’s comments was far more positive than needed if all Butler was trying to do was say “we may pass it if our concerns are addressed”.

    As I said, the Green Army legislation passing would be very bad in my opinion, but I’ll leave it at that.

  54. Dee

    BB

    Slipper would have a lot on the Coalition, particularly the Rabbott.

    Just guessing!

    Remember Rabbott saying some time ago now that he was able to confess and have in depth conversations with Slipper because he was a minister of the church and was bound by confidentiality. This revelation was in the context of talking up his friendship with Slipper.

    Slipper may have held his tongue through all this turmoil but if faced with millions in costs and the polls as they are both he and the government may have reached an understanding.

  55. lizzie

    [
    Climate Institute tells Labor: don’t retreat from emissions trading policy http://theconversation.com/climate-institute-tells-labor-dont-retreat-from-emissions-trading-policy-28028 … via @ConversationEDU #auspol ]

  56. confessions

    Lucky for the WA govt that the federal govt is cutting funding to CSIRO and shifting away from accepting the scientific advice of such bodies.

    [The State Government would have to abandon a CSIRO- endorsed population cap at Coral Bay if it were to expand the settlement into a town or the “Rottnest of the Pilbara” under its coastal revitalisation policy.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24242307/fears-for-future-of-coral-bay/

  57. zoomster

    To balance the picture — some recent Mark Butler comments re climate change —

    [We made it very clear in the election and we’ve been arguing in the Parliament since that we think the most effective way to deal with carbon pollution – to bring it down – is to put in place a legal cap..]

    […What people can be assured of is that the Labor Party is committed to taking action on climate change – strong and sensible action on climate change – but we want to look at a range of different options. We’re very interested in what other countries are doing to deal with this. Now, an emissions trading scheme is a very popular approach by other countries, including countries in our region, but it’s not the only one. So we want to have a very broad ranging discussion and not lock ourselves into what might have been policies in the past for the future.]

    […there are certainly issues that I want to work through on Green Army, workplace rights, about training obligations and such like, but we’re continuing to work through that and we’ll make a final decision about the Green Army program in due course, once we’ve had all of those questions addressed.]

    http://markbutler.alp.org.au/news/2014/06/15/transcript-of-interview-with-australian-agenda-on-sky

  58. guytaur

    zoomster

    As long as Labor sticks to what Shorten said in the budget reply speech I am happy.

    As I said I think it would be stupid for Labor to walk away from all that work. Just what you are saying.

    I agree the aim of what Butler is saying is good. The MSM was always going to put the worst light on what he said. I also think now is exactly the right time to say it.

    Its on the record and will be a half day wonder as today’s parliamentary coverage takes over.

  59. lizzie

    [Treasurer Joe Hockey’s defence of the Abbott government’s budget does not pass muster with us. Mr Hockey says it is ”misguided” to believe the government’s budget initiatives were unfair or that they exacerbated inequality. While we agree with Mr Hockey’s contention that there are some serious structural problems in terms of government expenditure, this is not the way to address those problems.
    . . .
    Outcomes do matter, and in some circumstances it is the duty of the government to improve people’s outcomes, not just provide them with equal opportunities. Sophisticated communities do not leave the worse off behind, not even in a crisis. If governments do not intervene to achieve more equitable outcomes, then income differentials will continue to widen, inherited opportunities become more vital generation after generation, and our community will become captive to the merciless ideal that only the fittest in terms of skills, wealth and cunning will survive. It is a beggarly objective, one that would impoverish us all.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/no-mr-hockey-it-remains-unfair-20140615-3a5oz.html#ixzz34kdy0f4A

  60. Dee

    I agree with Lizzie, re: Butler’s comments on pricing carbon and the ETS.

  61. lizzie

    [Bill Shorten ‏@billshortenmp 18m
    Read my opinion piece in the @australian about how Tony Abbott has neglected our first Australians http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-breaches-faith-with-aborigines-in-act-of-political-theft/story-e6frg6n6-1226955193222#

    @billshortenmp @australian If you want anybody but RWNJ to read it Bill, don’t bother writing for The Australian]

    RWNJ = right wing nutjobs? 😉

  62. CTar1

    lizzie

    [Outcomes do matter, and in some circumstances it is the duty of the government to improve people’s outcomes}

    The Press definitely turning against the Coalition.

    Jovial Joe’s Budget a real turning point.

  63. guytaur

    Good tweet this one

    @Tony_Burke: Problem is back. Travelling West Abbott returns to same place. World is round!
    Abbott 0 Science 1 http://t.co/GczlLP18G9
    #auspol

  64. daretotread

    Jacko

    While there are OHS issues to consider, there is not anything wrong IN PRINCIPLE with a Green Army, especially in times of high youth unemployment. It is better that unemployed kids do something useful and weed clearing is useful even if it is not particularly cost effective.

    However the Green Army is NOT a substitute for taking positive action to reduce CO2 emissions – whether by price signal or regulation.

    Weed clearing is an ideal task to soak up unused labor because it is low in capital cost, high in labor intensity, but is a task that because of its high cost, will not normally be undertaken by councils at especially high levels.

    It is physically active and likely to develop positive self image and may have long term benefits in getting more kids committed to environmental protection. A small percentage may gain skills that directly lead them into employment.

    So I have no problems with Labor passing the Green Army legislation PROVIDED the kids are not being exploited ie they get a fair return ie they get paid at least the minimum wage for the work done AND they have appropriate OHS protection.

  65. CTar1

    guy

    [Travelling West Abbott returns to same place. World is round!]

    Tones should explain this to George Pell. No need for Pell to pass in on as the current Pope has probably already got this.

  66. psyclaw

    As to Labor’s policy on anything, IMHO they should play their cards very close to their chests, STFU, and reserve all options until the lead up to the next election.

    They should not put anything “out there” because for sure the MSM will focus on it and whatever the response, good or bad, it will take the spotlight off the current incompetent government, their crap policies, their misjudgements, their backflips, their lies.

    As to the ETS, who knows what will be the state of such schemes internationally in 2016. Who knows what other options might be available or needed, to mesh in with global responses in 2016.

    Only a foolish shadow minister would spruik on right now about “ETS for sure in 2016”.

    It is important to differentiate between Labor principles, Labor policies, and Labor strategies. Only the first of these needs to be on the public record and in the public discourse all of the time.

    No ifs, no buts, Abbott is running the country now. Labor needs to take a leaf out of his book as LOTO ….. “we’ll have our policies ready for the election” is the correct answer to any gotcha focus on their policies for the forseeable future.

  67. daretotread

    I suspect that sales of Murdock papers are falling in Qld. Last night at 5:30 I was at Woolies and there were still stacks of papers for sale. Once there might have been one or two left and NO Australians but yesterday probably 80-100 Courier Mail and 50 or so Australians.

  68. victoria

    Morning all

    [The richest 1% of Australians now own the same wealth as the bottom 60%, according to a new report designed to bolster the case for global and domestic action to shrink the gap between rich and poor.

    The Oxfam Australia report also indicated that the nation’s nine richest individuals had a net worth of US$54.8bn, which was more than the combined bottom 20% of the population, or 4.54m people.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/16/australias-richest-1-own-as-much-as-bottom-60-says-oxfam

  69. Jackol

    Every explanation of the Green Army is that the workers will be paid substantially less than minimum wage.

    There is no indication that there will be any training or other useful skills developed – it’s just making use of labour valued at very low wages. It’s inherently exploitative. (And yes, the OH&S issue is a big one).

    Funding for the Green Army has come directly from cuts to Landcare.

    A bunch of desperate, unmotivated young people is no substitute for properly funding local schemes where the labour is provided by invested and enthusiastic locals.

    The Green Army is basically a complementary measure to the ‘earn or learn’ nastiness. Under 30s who don’t fit into the higher education systems will basically be strong armed into ‘volunteering’ for the Green Army as pretty much the only way they can be guaranteed any money at all in their 6 month waiting period.

    There is nothing worthy of support in the Green Army proposal.

  70. citizen

    The full “Herald Sun” story of the broken lease is here

    It mentions Frances signing a lease because she wanted to be independent, presumably later telling Abbott who called in the federal police who did an adverse security assessment. Frances used the assessment to break the lease, the owner wanted compensation under the terms of the lease, the case went to VCAT who found in favour of Frances after she presented the security assessment.

    If Frances signed the lease on her own behalf, then she should have been responsible for paying the appropriate compensation when she broke the lease for whatever reason. It seems unfair that the owner should bear the financial burden.

    The Abbotts must be a stingy lot. Why did Abbott not just give Frances the money to terminate the lease? The age of entitlement continues.

  71. CTar1

    citizen

    [The full “Herald Sun” story of the broken lease is here]

    I suspect that after she signed the lease someone explained to her that Prahan is not a ‘trendy’ place to live.

    That then resulted in a ‘Help Dad’ call.

  72. Jackol

    They should not put anything “out there”

    This is the dysfunctional politics of the last 10+ years continued.

    It is a dead end road, politically.

    If the ALP plans to put in anything controversial, they need to have committed to it well in advance of the election.

    If the ALP consistently say that they will (re)implement a carbon price (and maybe they can wait for another 6 months or so before talking firm policy, but in my opinion not longer) until the next election, there cannot be any scare campaign, and there won’t be any surprise or confusion on the part of the electorate.

    Governments lose elections. The ALP won’t fail to win an election because they promise to (re)introduce a carbon price when the time comes.

    The ALP cannot do what the LNP did in winning the last election – try to sail under the radar and avoid talking about anything controversial. The public are sick of it, and if the ALP flip flop around about carbon pricing or any other controversial policy and then try to implement it post-election, they will suffer the same fate as the current government.

    Anyway. I accept that now is not the time to be putting out firm policy positions, but I think it would be a very grave mistake to not flag the controversial stuff well before the election.

  73. Darn

    [zoomster
    Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 7:43 am | PERMALINK
    Asked if that meant the policy might not be an ETS, Mr Butler said he was “not going to indicate one way or the other what we’re going to do because we will do that in a deliberative way” but that the party would look at “all policy options”.

    Can people please re read my posts about the Labor policy process?

    It would be foolish to lock the party into any position this far out from an election.

    I would also remind people that every time someone on the Labor side has even twitched when discussing the ETS, we’ve been confidently told by the media that that means the ALP is going to walk away from it.

    At present, all policy options are open – exactly what Butlet is saying. He’s leaving the door open in case the world situation changes between now and the next election, and a better mechanism than the ETS comes along.

    Labor will go to the next election with a policy that supports the best method of reducing carbon emissions to the desired target within the designated timeline.

    If that’s an ETS, then that’s what Labor will be supporting.]

    I thoroughly support you in those comments Zoomster. I saw the Butler interview and he answered all their gotcha questions regarding the carbon tax/ETS perfectly. There was no hint whatsoever that Labor was wimping anything. The simple message was that when the time comes Labor will consider all options and then choose the best one – a totally unassailable position.

    If Butler had said anything even remotely sounding like Labor was determined to reintroduce a CT it would have become an unnecessary diversion at a time when the full focus needs to be on the unfairness of the government’s budget – a strategy which even Liberal supporters concede is working very well at present. He showed a lot of good judgement in that interview IMO.

  74. citizen

    Under pressure, Qld finds an excuse to not proceed with penalising tradies having “bikie links”.

    [THE Queensland government has delayed a controversial plan to rid the building industry of people with links to criminal bikie gangs.

    NEW laws that could have forced every tradie to undergo a police background check were due to come into force in two weeks.

    But Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie has told The Courier-Mail the government will now wait for any possible findings from the royal commission into union corruption before launching its new anti-criminal gang licensing program.

    The royal commission must report by December 31.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-plan-to-rid-bikies-from-sector-on-hold/story-e6frfku9-1226955600320

  75. psyclaw

    Jackol

    As someone said earlier on this thread, Joe Public doesn’t give a stuff about “policy” at this stage.

    More especially, magnify this disengagement 100 fold for that special species, Swingin Joe Public.

    The Labor party is expressing principle at the moment …”we will cap carbon emissions”.

    To think that that 30 months out Labor should commit to an ETS as the best method, the only method, the globally accepted method to cap carbon emissions in 2016+, given what is going on globally at the moment is at best naive and probably plain stupid.

    Talking about an enduring principle ….. the commitment to cap carbon emissions is flagging a firm policy position. But there needs to be no “T”s crossed or “i”s dotted for a while yet.

  76. briefly

    Labor have form on carbon and climate change. In 2009, having badly mishandled the politics, they caved in. They better not go belly up on this again.

  77. Sir sustainable future

    re: the green army

    these schemes have been largely useless in the past and are more about fudging long term and youth unemployment figures. will anyone forced onto them then be ineligible for support for 6 months once they are off their ‘assignment’. A friend who supervised these ‘green jobs’ during the 1990s (hawke-keating era fudging) described them as ‘really useful for the local drug dealers – it gave them a captive market and most of the crew were stoned, smacked or speeding by 11am’.

  78. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Live: Opening statements are being made at the RC into trade unions, focusing on HSU. Watch http://t.co/TTkTJ5G5Ba or #ABCNews24 #turc”

  79. lizzie

    [Ms Abbott instead opted to leave the flat after discovering security restrictions forbade her from living in a ground-floor flat.]

    Didn’t Daddy explain beforehand?

  80. lizzie

    [Mike Carlton
    @TheRealPBarry Counted some 30 shots at Fairfax and the ABC in the Oz this morning: a newspaper suffering paranoid schizophrenia.]

  81. lizzie

    [Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo 1m
    Why is Butler leaving Labor’s options open on climate when Shorten has already confirmed a market mechanism for 2016? http://gu.com/p/3q5m8/tw ]

  82. citizen

    [Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo 1m
    Why is Butler leaving Labor’s options open on climate when Shorten has already confirmed a market mechanism for 2016? http://gu.com/p/3q5m8/tw ]

    The media never seemed to ask this sort of question of Abbott prior to the election.

    Obama will still be president in 2016 and pushing hard for climate action, Abbott’s ‘no action’ friend Harper is on track to lose his 2015 election, China will be expanding its carbon trading schemes and so on.

    With this sort of momentum overseas, Labor can formulate an appropriate policy in due course.

  83. Bushfire Bill

    Sounds like Counsel Assisting is setting Kathy Jackson up for beatification. Can sainthood be far behind?

  84. zoomster

    Why is Katharine Murphy tweeting links that go nowhere?

  85. Jackol

    Labor are going to face an utterly toxic Senate if they win in 2016 that is unlikely to be “fixed” naturally until 2020 short of a DD.

    It will make any substantive legislative program very difficult indeed, and particularly any attempt to re-introduce a carbon price.

  86. guytaur

    @political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will speak at the International Cleaners’ Day Event at Parliament House today from 12.10pm #auspol

  87. psyclaw

    Jackol

    “Labor are going to face an utterly toxic Senate if they win in 2016”

    Well at last.

    At least one person in the country who knows how the micros and Clive’s mob are going to vote, right up to 2020.

    I defer to your wisdom, insight and clairvoyancy.

  88. Jackol

    psyclaw – thanks for adding nothing but sarcasm.

    If you think I’m likely wrong I’d love to hear some solid argument. I’d love to be wrong on that.

    I’m trying to work out the logistics of getting a carbon price up and running again as soon as possible post a 2016 ALP win, but I think the screwed up Senate will be a major roadblock.

    I’m not attacking the ALP for that, just seeing it as a likely outcome, and wondering what that likely means for ALP strategy in this area.

  89. guytaur

    National Party not in Senate Chamber to defend budget.

  90. BK

    I just watched the first episode of the new ABC series “The Tunnel.”
    It is a very close English/French adaptation of the excellent Danish/Swedish series “The Bridge” right down to the casting and character of the lead female detective.
    Thoroughly recommended.

  91. guytaur

    “@SenatorWong: Coalition Senator MacDonald indicates his “inclination” is to vote against the PPL scheme.”

  92. BK

    Hm. A very interesting speech from Senator MacDonald. He wants those ENTITIES who can afford to pay more to pay more.

  93. Libertarian Unionist

    [I just watched the first episode of the new ABC series “The Tunnel.”
    It is a very close English/French adaptation of the excellent Danish/Swedish series “The Bridge” right down to the casting and character of the lead female detective.
    Thoroughly recommended.]

    I watched the entirety of the US/Mexico version on a long-haul to Paris earlier this year (13 episodes!). It starts on the Bridge of the Americas over the Rio Grande at El Paso and Juarez, so there’s lots of drugs, prostitution, and general gruesomeness to work with.

    It was also very good, and I understand it’s a very close remake of the original Swedish/Danish version, which I’d like to see too.

  94. BK

    Libertaran Unionist
    The Danes have been making some really good stuff worth catching up with. The Bridge (2 series), The Killing (3 series, I think) and Borgen, a standout 3 series.

  95. my say

    zoomster thank u for the info re the green army

    i think people here should leave the tactics to those that understand tactics

    we are just emotive,

    i first thought why then like u thought well why not

    but i am concerned abbott would he use the unemployed for his green army

    but clear understanding of each policy in the budget

    it good to read, as member i would like to have more inside information like that but then,, its not always wise to let any one know ones next step.

    are you on twitter u could keep an eye things tweeters say re alp that are often wrong like the ETS ect, i understand that now have seen some greens that are in the area of green minister office moaning about that one.

    I do though on the other hand hope alp support the greens re the DD plans,

    the policy re the solar rebates,, we have big industry here and in aust,, this needs to stay

    so may be you could explain the trigger idea of christine milne

    hoping it works and very pleased someone is going forward on something

    thanks again for your valued info

    will check from time to time your posts are very valuable

    the most horrible policy i have read yesterday is meals on wheels loses funding ,

    there is lot i could say about that, but am sure most think what i thinking

  96. Gary

    Darn 76 – I agree completely.

  97. lizzie

    [In February 2012, as leader of the Greens, I made a courtesy call on Tony Abbott. He had just pipped Malcolm Turnbull in a party room vote for the leadership of the opposition. He looked straight at me and said, “I am an environmentalist!”

    I did not roll my eyes or argue. I had heard the like before. The CEO of Tasmania’s Hydro-Electric Commission, after flooding Lake Pedder and at the height of the controversy over damming the Franklin River, maintained that he was an environmentalist. So have a string of other dam-builders, loggers and gougers of the Earth.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/16/i-am-a-conservationist-is-tony-abbott-the-only-person-who-believes-that?CMP=twt_gu

  98. Darn

    [Jackol
    Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 10:25 am | PERMALINK
    Labor are going to face an utterly toxic Senate if they win in 2016 that is unlikely to be “fixed” naturally until 2020 short of a DD.

    It will make any substantive legislative program very difficult indeed, and particularly any attempt to re-introduce a carbon price.]

    That’s probably true. Co-operative Senate’s are a rare occurrence, which makes it all the more regrettable that the Greens wasted a golden opportunity to get an ETS in place and bedded down when they had the balance of power between 2007 and 2010.

  99. BK

    I was at a meeting the other day when the subject of the Green Army came up. There was much cynicism about it. Who would supervise them and who would pay for that? How can the poor buggers get to and from work if they are being paid a pittance? How can we be sure they wold not supplant the work done now by small businesses? Much concern over the excision of OH&S and workplace regulation.
    Also I found out that the 2 to 3% indexation of federal government payments to local government has been frozen for 3 years. Councils will have to increase rates at a faster rate now. I just hope they make the point strongly when they send out this year’s rates notices.

  100. Libertarian Unionist

    Yeah, and on the Swedish side, the Wallander series was pretty damn good too, as were the BBC’s adaptations featuring Kenneth Branagh.

  101. Darn

    Don’t know where that stupid apostrophe came from.

  102. Bushfire Bill

    Tony Abbott’s claim to be “a conservationist” doesn’t mean much more than “I’ve been on some bushwalks”

  103. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius 4m

    Wait? What? No. http://www.youngwitness.com.au/story/2353625/mobile-maybe/?cs=12 … LNP pollies really have no idea how technology works do they? pic.twitter.com/0mJCwBghPm

  104. BK

    And Wyshe-Wilson has been giving a good speeh in the Senate.
    Abbott’s budget has very few friends.

  105. CTar1

    Bk

    [It is a very close English/French adaptation of the excellent Danish/Swedish series]

    The Scandinavians have really got things going with TV drama series at the moment – Wallender, Borgen & Real Humans all good story lines and excellent production qualities.

  106. BK

    Cory Bernardi gets up now. I think I’ll watch something else.

  107. BK

    CTar1
    Yes, I had forgotten Real Humans That was a beauty – with so many messages.

  108. daretotread

    Jackol

    You are of course quite right. The 2017 Senate will probably be very very strange.

    Now if the revised legislation on senate voting gets through – I assume it will you probably will not have as many odd balls but I would expect the Senate to still have PUP with balance of power

  109. briefly

    [I thoroughly support you in those comments Zoomster. I saw the Butler interview and he answered all their gotcha questions regarding the carbon tax/ETS perfectly. There was no hint whatsoever that Labor was wimping anything. The simple message was that when the time comes Labor will consider all options and then choose the best one – a totally unassailable position.

    If Butler had said anything even remotely sounding like Labor was determined to reintroduce a CT it would have become an unnecessary diversion at a time when the full focus needs to be on the unfairness of the government’s budget – a strategy which even Liberal supporters concede is working very well at present. He showed a lot of good judgement in that interview IMO.]

    I really have to disagree. Climate change is the greatest economic challenge we face. It is also a very significant social justice issue. If the ALP cannot stand its ground and make the argument on climate change – stand against all the miserable lies and duplicity of the LNP in general and Abbott in particular – then I for one will be giving up on them.

    To surrender on this issue would be to hand Abbott the legitimacy he desperately craves but does not have and does not deserve.

  110. zoidlord

    El Nino update is tomorrow (from BOM), don’t forget.

  111. B.C.

    It’s taken a lot to get an ETS passed. If the current legislation is repealed we’re all going to have to go through it again.

    I think everyone would be better off if legislation to repeal the ETS was defeated in the Senate. Unfortunately, given the numbers, I don’t think that will happen.

  112. Bushfire Bill

    Abbott’s aim would surely be to amend Senate voting procedures to disadvantage small p[arties, and then to have his double dissolution, wouldn’t it?

    In which case, expect a DD to recede into the distant future. If ever.

  113. Bushfire Bill

    For the life of me I can’t understand why someone doesn’t lock Palmer in a room with three unimpeachable climate scientists and go over the whole Global Warming thing with him again.

    Surely worth a least a try.

  114. zoidlord

    Regarding Greg Hunt, I think he is using a stupid excuse for funding the Solar, because the use of “Difficult decisions”.

    He fully knows what happens, and there were no difficult decisions.

    It’s simply because it’s part of “living beyond our means” BS, or it’s a Labor Policy.

  115. guytaur

    @smh: Senator @CoryBernardi says he will cross the floor to vote against Tony Abbott’s deficit levy http://t.co/um2VeUHtDL #auspol

  116. CTar1

    Bk

    [I had forgotten Real Humans That was a beauty – with so many messages.]

    After watching it on TV when broadcast (on one of your recommendations, I believe) I realised after the last episode that I’d understood about a quarter of what went on.

    So I got the series on CD and watched it 2 or 3 times before I ‘got’ most of it.

    My nephew seems to have made off with the CD’s now and is working his way through it.

  117. BK

    guytaur
    And from what I have heard he will cross the floor on PPL.

  118. B.C.

    If reforms to Senate voting is passed Madigan probably won’t be re-elected in 2016. However, a Government elected in 2016 will still face three PUP Senators, one MEP Senator, one Family First Senator, one LDP Senator and Senator Xenophon, plus whatever happens in the next Senate election.

  119. BK

    Bernardi is a Tea Party trickle down economics man.

  120. daretotread

    BK

    I properly managed the “green army” would not replace either the private sector OR the landcare groups.

    Now I am NOT saying this will happen but IF landcare groups were funded then they could supervise SOME of the Green army” especially in rural areas where chances are they know the local kids anyway. Those private firms who do weed clearing for councils could be funded to extend their supervision of the green army. This would mean that the work was done effectively , no job losses in the private sector and a few of the kids would find employment longer term in the supervising firm and others would at least have good references to help them in the future.

    The key is to ensure that the work done is stuff that would NOT be done if left to market forces alone.

    This is an area with which I am VERY familiar, as a land owner, who employs private land clearer AND has council assisted land clearing, a volunteer in two land clearing organizations and with a former housemate for a guy who was employed in the industry for 9 months while waiting for a professional job.

    I do take the point about the need to supervise the program but just because it failed once does nopt mean it must fail again

  121. CTar1

    zoidlord

    [Regarding Greg Hunt]

    I don’t regard him at all.

  122. cud chewer

    With any luck this coming summer will be a scorcher. Then it will be time for Labor to announce a brand new ETS.

  123. lizzie

    Let’s remember who is REALLY responsible for putting Abbott in charge of our environment. That dull-eyed snake Andrew Robb.

    [Think about the circumstances under which Tony Abbott took the leadership of the Liberal Party. The party was in open rebellion, parlously split over the bipartisan deal Malcolm Turnbull was just inches from signing with Kevin Rudd to introduce an emissions trading scheme in Australia.

    And he might have signed it, too, had an ailing Andrew Robb – still on sick leave and suffering badly with depression – not turned up to the relevant party room meeting on November 24, 2009, with a secret mission to torpedo Turnbull’s plans.

    Robb passed a note up to Turnbull, advising him that the side effects of his depression medication tended to make him very tired and that “I’d be really grateful if you could get me to my feet soon”.

    Turnbull agreed, whereupon Robb took to his feet and denounced the deal. His intervention was enough (he had been a fervent backer of emissions trading up till then) to do a mortal injury both to the emissions trading scheme, and to Turnbull’s leadership. It was an extraordinary act.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-12/crabb-parental-leave-when-ideology-and-policy-collide/5517934

  124. BK

    daretotread
    LandCare’s funding has been effectively cut by two thirds in this budget.

  125. cud chewer

    I know its a quite improper thought, but what happens when a few green army “volunteers” suffer workplace accidents or deaths?

  126. zoidlord

    @Cud/128

    No lawsuits, no royal commissions, just the way Liberals like it.

    Green Army Legislation protects the government.

  127. BK

    zoid
    Yes, gutless when the rubber hits the road.

  128. citizen

    [BK

    Also I found out that the 2 to 3% indexation of federal government payments to local government has been frozen for 3 years. Councils will have to increase rates at a faster rate now. I just hope they make the point strongly when they send out this year’s rates notices.]

    These Federal Assistance Grants have been the lifeblood of councils for many years, particularly for less affluent councils or shires in rural areas. Once again Truss seems to be ignoring his constituency by not making a public fuss over the issue.

  129. cud chewer

    zoid,

    Front page of Telegraph?

    not.

  130. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Greens
    Rachel Siewert ‏@SenatorSiewert 8m

    HILDA report shows reliance on welfare has dropped – Hockey confected a ‘welfare crisis’ like he confected a ‘budget crisis’ #bustthebudget

  131. zoidlord

    @Cud/133

    DailyTerror will probably mention something like “Green Army provides jobs” then some liberal propaganda, but no mention of accidents, deaths or the like.

  132. daretotread

    BK

    Yes I know that Landcare has been cut – stupid, stupid, stupid.

  133. daretotread

    BK

    Mind you I am looking forward to four Royal Commissions in 2017 – One into injuries in the Green Army program – just like the Pink Batts RC, another into corruption in Industry Associations, a third into human atrocities in the Immigration program and a fourth into the misuse of the law for defaming political opponents. Abbott would be the star witness at most of them.

  134. Rex Douglas

    Capitulations everywhere you look.

    The Govt capitulating on the Solar panel subsidy commitment.

    ALP capitulating on their long term CEP and declaring themselves weathervanes on pollution/climate change.

    Clive capitulating on his stance of non-reliance on parliamentary services.

  135. zoomster

    briefly

    refusing to lock yourself into a position which might be out of step with the rest of the world in a couple of years time is not ‘wimping’ anything.

    I would be the first to kick and scream if there was even a hint at Labor walking away from tackling climate change – posters here might remember that when the msm was confidently quoting ‘Labor sources’ as saying that Labor would vote with the government to remove ‘the carbon tax’, my immediate response was to email every single Labor MP and Senator and ask wtf was going on — but there’s no indication that’s happening.

    mysay

    cheers, thanks for the feedback.

    I’m not sure which Milne proposal you’re referring to — do you have a link? (I was on motherly duties yesterday, watching soccer, so I’m a little behind the news…)

  136. BK

    daretotread
    We can live in hope!

  137. zoidlord

    @DTR/137

    You are forgetting one more, Royal Commission decision on National Broadband Network where Telstra/Murdoch gets the FTTN upgrade.

    Further, this RC should be who favors who, especially regarding deregulation:
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/malcolm-turnbull-wants-consensus-on-tv-sport-rights-and-ownership-rules-20140615-3a5se.html#ixzz34lMoLbuk

  138. BK

    Labor can vote to remove the “carbon tax” provided there remains a capped ETS based on world carbon pricing markets.

  139. citizen

    From Guardian parliament live update site at 11.55:

    [While I’ve been listening to the debate, my colleague Lenore Taylor has been asking Labor to clarify its stance on climate policy after the weekend vacuum.

    I mentioned earlier today that it’s a bit odd that the opposition isn’t now confirming core principles of its climate policy it was prepared to confirm just a couple of months ago. Lenore has sent me this quick update – Labor’s climate policy for the next election will include a cap on emissions and a market-based mechanism to lower carbon pollution:

    Both opposition leader Bill Shorten and opposition climate spokesman Mark Butler insist Labor’s position as outlined in Shorten’s March interview with Guardian Australia has not changed.

    Butler said Labor’s policy at the 2016 election would be based on the “core principles” that there needed to be “a legal cap on Australia’s greenhouse emissions and a market mechanism to bring those emission levels down.”

    A spokesman for Shorten said the position he enunciated in the Guardian Australia interview had not changed.]

  140. Rex Douglas

    It will be interesting to watch the ALP over the next few years as policy is announced to see how much they fall into line behind the Murdoch agenda.
    I’d hate to see a desperate Rudd-like sellout to Murdoch from a Shortens ALP.

  141. guytaur

    BK

    Abbott will not agree to that. However Palmer might. After all an ETS is not a tax

  142. zoomster

    citizen

    So it seems we’re having a semantic argument – just as the ‘carbon tax’ Gillard said she would never introduce was not the ‘carbon tax’ she did introduce, Butler is commited to a ‘market based mechanism’ which MAY be an ETS.

    It’s a pity we don’t seem to be able to do nuance nowadays.

  143. WeWantPaul

    [I’d hate to see a desperate Rudd-like sellout to Murdoch from a Shortens ALP.]

    You just can’t help yourself can you – like an itch or twitch that is involuntary – pathetic.

  144. guytaur

    zoomster

    To be fair I think its not bludgers confused with semantics. Its the journalists who are confused

  145. psyclaw

    Jackol #91

    Here’s some solid argument.

    You can’t predict how the micros and Clive’s mob will vote until they show their hand in actions rather than words. Even then, will the way they vote as a group in 2014, if they do, sustain till 2016?

    You can’t predict what the accepted best practice will be in capping carbon emissions in 2016. It may be by ETS methodology, it may be some variant of the same, or it may be something else entirely.

  146. citizen

    Another retailer blames poor sales figures on the budget.

    [Super Retail Group has trimmed its full year profit forecast, blaming the federal budget for hurting sales across its businesses.

    The owner of Supercheap Auto and Rebel Sports said sales had been weaker than expected since the May 13 budget, forcing it to moderate its full year net profit forecast.
    ]
    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/super-retail-blames-budget-sales-233417126.html

  147. zoomster

    Strange how the budget legislation passed the HoR without any Liberals crossing the floor, but there’s several considering this in the Senate.

  148. guytaur

    I like the Labor name for the Newstart changes

    NoStart

  149. kakuru

    [It will be interesting to watch the ALP over the next few years as policy is announced to see how much they fall into line behind the Murdoch agenda.
    I’d hate to see a desperate Rudd-like sellout to Murdoch from a Shortens ALP.]

    *yawn*

  150. MTBW

    WWP

    [I’d hate to see a desperate Rudd-like sellout to Murdoch from a Shortens ALP.

    You just can’t help yourself can you – like an itch or twitch that is involuntary – pathetic.]

    Agree with you! While we are dealing with an absolutely vain incomprehensible leader let’s talk about Rudd.

    Some people have very weird priorities.

  151. zoidlord

    Another retailer blames the Federal Budget, this time it’s Super Retail Group.

  152. Tom the first and best

    151

    It is not a surprise that there is more willingness to cross the floor when there is actual chance of making a difference do to the tight numbers.

  153. CTar1

    poroti

    finishing off talk on WW2 RAF Pilots from yesterday.

    Some ‘wry’ observations from them.

    Officer: “Sergeant-Pilots always had the best aircraft due to messing with the senior mechanics and air frame fitters. And Sergeant-Pilots rarely ‘claimed’. ‘The guy you’re talking about was one of two Mustangs escorting 3 Lancaster’s back from Turin. Before ditching he knocked down 2 Messerschmidt Night Fighters. Generally believed to have scored about 15 over the 5 years’.

    Sergeant-Pilot: ‘By the time I splashed in Lake Constance the Swiss had worked out that the Germans were definitely losing. So no internment, just put on a plane to Lisbon, and then the ‘Mail’ plane home. Seven days and back at base. The Mustang had only been flown twice. Senior mechanic asked me did I know that he’d spent 3 days filing the valves and polishing the air inlets and that two Air-craftsmen had spent two days polishing the canopy’.

  154. psyclaw

    Zoomster #139

    i find myself in furious agreement with you.

    My Say

    Hi!

    I also agree with you about commentary on tactics.

    The journey back to the government benches is long. And I happen to think the Labor team is pretty strong and sensible.

    In the Melbourne cup, the first time past the winning post means nothing. (The jockeys of) The real contenders show their hand in the last couple of hundred metres, and if they’re good enough they win.

  155. guytaur

    @danielhurstbne: “Golden Toilet Brush 2014” awarded at United Voice rally to Tony Abbott http://t.co/6ovGyuN6er

  156. CTar1

    Jeff Kennett:

    Another one who should STFU.

    Total Turkey.

  157. poroti

    CTar1

    I wonder if the Mustang is still at the bottom of Lake Constance ? After all that extra detailing I’d well imagine the ground crew gave him some ribbing over “splashing” on flight number 2.

  158. zoidlord

    Retweeted by sortius
    Sean Parnell ‏@seanparnell 12m

    #FOI suggests @PeterDutton_MP & staff didn’t even bother writing to ANPHA re #Budget decisions on preventive health. pic.twitter.com/FsuEYkcN4H

  159. guytaur

    I still think its One Term Tony. He lied when asked questions on the social compact like social security and medicare.

    The budget has entrenched his lies and he cannot flip again to become popular and to appear that he has not been lying.

    As a result nasty liar is becoming entrenched in the population. By the time of the next budget his fate will be sealed. The usual bribes will not work. Tax cuts only work when people know they benefit. All the cuts done in this budget let alone those promised for the next one are not going away and will be there on election day.

    Its also for that reason that I think the chance of Abbott calling a DD are slim indeed despite the trigger the Greens are setting up.

  160. sprocket_

    Grubbiness, thy name is Murdoch, using the SmearStralian for innuendo-based attack by implication of former PM

    [@NeilChenoweth: After the Oz commits totally to Nowicki denial @SharriMarkson says her father “backed up” Wilson’s $200k claim #turc http://t.co/xEaryriAUS

  161. zoidlord

    I see liberals attacking wellfare on this Poll:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/oxfam-survey-finds-widening-gap-between-australias-rich-and-poor-20140615-3a5vd.html

    Despite the evidence of the gap between rich and poor in the Oxford survey.

  162. guytaur

    “@latikambourke: RT @RANews: BREAKING NEWS: Arrest warrant served for #PNG Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, in relation to fraud case.”

  163. guytaur

    @brodiewest: Woo hoo! Liberal attack on World Heritage rejected – http://t.co/9AhZhvXflT

  164. guytaur

    @AustralianLabor: Want to ask Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz a question? Click here and enter thanks to @ChifleyResearch http://t.co/5gMAVPoUjo

  165. guytaur

    Tony Burke on 24 now

  166. CTar1

    poroti

    [I wonder if the Mustang is still at the bottom of Lake Constance ? After all that extra detailing I’d well imagine the ground crew gave him some ribbing over “splashing” on flight number 2.]

    Yep, Probably still in the lake on the S-W on the Swiss shore and a shiny example other than the Flack damage.

    It seemed they’d been at work on it so he could see and it would be very responsively ‘zippy’.

    He never said but I guess that his thought was ‘aircraft 9’ coming up.

    I don’t imagine that he could think other and survive.

    And I’d bet the Ground Crew did no less on the next one.

  167. my say

    psyclaw

    and others any thought on the greens pushing abbott to a DD

    will abbott ego, decide he wants it as i doubt he believes the
    the polls.
    part of me wants it so bad the other part say no

    would like supply blocked then i think no

    bit risky

    but have this feeling i cannot shake off that this gove will not go full term

    may be wishful thinking? any thought

    so much damage done to people lives and the country

    i hope the lnp is damaged for ever and never recovers.

  168. citizen

    The story of Frances Abbott breaking the lease without penalty won’t go away soon. It’s now on Yahoo7 and Ninemsn where it’s currently the third most popular story.

    The owner of the flat is described as a single mother who is recovering from cancer in the original News Ltd story. The impression gained is of an unequal contest between an ordinary person and a PM’s daughter who is helped by connections.

    If the Abbotts had just paid the usual penalty for terminating the lease, this would not have been a story.

  169. guytaur

    I am going to watch the Senate QT today. Its on ABC1.

  170. caf

    Technically the eponymous river is not part of the seat of Murray, as the river itself is part of New South Wales along that border.

  171. victoria

    [Simon Cullen
    Govt Senate Leader Eric Abetz says not all budget measures will be passed before July 1. But says it changes can be made, with leg to follow]

  172. zoidlord

    RBA Speech:
    http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-ag-160614.html

    “GDP growth lifted noticeably around the turn of this year – and was running at a bit above trend over the year to the March quarter 2014. But much of that owed to a very strong contribution from the production and export of resources, which does not draw on much labour. The strength of resource production of late partly reflects an improvement in labour productivity in the mining sector, which is to be expected as new productive capacity comes on line.”

    Interesting positives on the previous government, but should note that the “was” part, meaning before Coalition Party first budget?

  173. bemused

    zoidlord@179

    Despite loosing in Soccer, Japanese still clean their mess up:
    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/japanese-fans-clean-up-their-section-after-world-cup-match-against-ivory-coast-015533399.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory

    Why can’t all sports fans and others do this? It’s not hard, particularly if you don’t litter in the first place.

    Why aren’t there fines for people who do litter so that we can effect a cultural change to no littering?

    As someone who never litters anywhere, this is al an impenetrable mystery to me.

  174. guytaur

    @sspencer_63: Lifter or leaner? Coal company makes $15 billion from Aussie coal, pays no tax. http://t.co/2h7OtEeKTP

  175. kakuru

    [[@NeilChenoweth: After the Oz commits totally to Nowicki denial @SharriMarkson says her father “backed up” Wilson’s $200k claim ]

    Gee, I wonder who was going to pony up that $200K?

  176. zoidlord

    @bemused/181

    Having been to Japan twice, it’s like part of their culture, the way they been brought up.

  177. zoidlord

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 2m

    A law deterring online copyright infringement may have to be passed before the end of 2014 thanks to KAFTA. http://zd.net/1lr8BZs

  178. victoria

    kakuru
    [Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 1:40 pm | PERMALINK
    [@NeilChenoweth: After the Oz commits totally to Nowicki denial @SharriMarkson says her father “backed up” Wilson’s $200k claim

    Gee, I wonder who was going to pony up that $200K?]

    Any intrepid journos willing and able to investigate?

  179. zoidlord

    Surprisingly, no body is outraged by Online Copyright Laws by the end of this year, compared to when Labor is tried to do it?

  180. poroti

    The Comical Ali of sports reporters has been found.

    [World Cup 2014: How Australia can beat the Netherlands]

    http://www.smh.com.au/fifa-world-cup-2014/australia-2014/world-cup-2014-how-australia-can-beat-the-netherlands-20140615-zs8d2.html

  181. Boris

    If the Abbotts had just paid the usual penalty for terminating the lease, this would not have been a story.

    Had no problem in paying terminated lease on Canberra accom, hundreds of thousands involved, but was using tax payer money.

  182. zoidlord

    Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 2m

    mass #surveillance – data retention – net filtering – is this the web we want? –> https://www.efa.org.au/events/web-we-want-2014/ … 11:30am Tues June 17 Melbourne

  183. badcat

    [ CTar1

    Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    I wonder if the Mustang is still at the bottom of Lake Constance ? After all that extra detailing I’d well imagine the ground crew gave him some ribbing over “splashing” on flight number 2.
    }

    —————————————————-

    Ctar1 – a local mate of mine is into engines – and has a large collection of stationary ones as well as some aeroplane and tank engines. He tells the story of his dad ( now deceased ) who was in the RAAF during and after WW 2 – but he says his dad was part of a gang after hostilities ceased and the jet age was upon us – and they used to go out in a boat in Sydney harbour and dump wooden crates of brand new Rolls Royce Merlin/Griffon engines in the harbour as “surplus” goods …..

    These engines are worth “thousands” today with enthusiasts

    I’m just reading an article in the Daily Mail about these engines and it quoted :

    “And the majority of the left-over engines were disposed of after the War – some even tipped down a mine shaft just to get rid of them.”

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2162754/Griffon-Chance-rare-successor-Rolls-Royce-Merlin-engine-auctioned.html#ixzz34ls4PjqS

  184. zoidlord

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 2m

    If the government was going to go ahead with changing media ownership laws, there’s leverage there to make content more easily available.

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m

    Though likely the changes will probably lead to the opposite happening.

  185. Sir Mad Cyril

    [
    If the Netherlands can put five past the world champions, what hope Australia? Granted, it will require something special for the Socceroos to extend their unbeaten run against the Dutch but – strange as it sounds – don’t rule it out.
    ]

    At the risk of looking like a fool, I’m ruling it out!

  186. guytaur

    zoid

    Media changes may not be to Murdoch’s advantage. He could be outbid for Ten by the Chinese

  187. kakuru

    victoria

    [Any intrepid journos willing and able to investigate?]

    You mean… do some investigative journalism? Pffft. Like THAT’s gonna happen.

  188. victoria

    kakuru

    One can only dream…..

  189. guytaur

    Senator X is voting with the Greens on the Deficit Levy

  190. guytaur

    “@SamCD01: Change of language from the PM on Carbon Tax repeal – Says it ‘should be’ repealed in the next six months. #qt”