tip off

BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United’s recent dip in the polls.

The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

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  • 51
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    sortius ‏@sortius 5m

    Yeh @TurnbullMalcolm, no one is doing FTTP: http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/att-adds-raleigh-nc-its-1-gbps-fttp-deployment-target-list/2014-06-18http://www.thinkbroadband.com/news/6495-sky-in-gigabit-trials-in-hampshire.html … elect an idiot, get idiotic statements #NBN

  • 52
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    Could well be the case. The attitude I have encountered from most people i come into contact with, do not like the idea of a mosque in their area. These are people who are very caring and progressive, but the idea of a mosque is a step too far for them. That is the reality i experience

  • 53
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    My fifth (and for the moment final) post on political donations in Australia: Nathan Tinkler & Co: Political Donors Anonymous tracks some of the shadowy gifts.

    “Is anyone apart from corruption commissions monitoring the laws? Is anyone enforcing them?

    Are the laws adequate to ensure transparency, honesty, accountability and enforcement?”

    Looking forward to 4 Corners cash-for-favours program next Monday.

  • 54
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Irrational fear. No calls to prayer for instance. I live not far from a mosque and it has less impact on the suburb than a church does.

  • 55
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    There are also many people who would jump up and down at the prospect of a happy clapper church going up in the neighborhood.

  • 56
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    victoria

    I can understand that.

    On the flip side, we have Ed Husic who is married to a Catholic.

  • 57
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: The Federal Government has just introduced legislation to increase the tax on petrol”

  • 58
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

  • 59
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Kevin Rennie

    Strange how everything and everyone is connected in this shadowy world

    As we are seeing in NSW.

  • 60
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    “@davrosz: Isn’t it incredible that every document that could possibly clear Jackson has been lost, and only those that incriminate her remain? #turc”

  • 61
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Is that tweet meant to be ironic?

  • 62
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    victoria

    That or sarcastic I think

  • 63
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Paul Barry ‏@TheRealPBarry 1m
    IRONY ALERT! The Australian to take @ABCmediawatch to the ACMA over OUR tobacco story. No, really!

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/big-public-broadcasting-smokes-out-same-targets/story-e6frg71x-1226959141620

  • 64
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    victoria

    The seat of Murray – featured here only a few days ago – is one of the most conservative in the country, but its main city, Shepparton, is host to a substantial number of refugees, including many from the Middle East and the Sudan.

    My son played soccer for one of the NE junior teams, and we had to travel to Shepp for training and home games – it was great to see Moslem girls (with every limb bandaged and wearing head scarves) in the team, and one of our best players was Sudanese.

    It was obvious that the Shepp community had (by and large) embraced them.

  • 65
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    Retweeted by sortius
    Schadenfreude George ‏@GeorgeBludger 1m

    LNP way: “The bill removes the requirement for financial planners to act in the ”best interests” of their clients” http://www.smh.com.au/business/government-urged-to-stay-strong-on-fofa-reforms-20140618-3ae44.html#ixzz352KURThe

  • 66
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    AMA President ‏@amapresident 1m

    This co-payment belongs on the scrap heap. It will hurt our patients, especially sickest and most vulnerable http://bit.ly/1spfiPs #auspol

  • 67
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    Very heartening to hear

  • 68
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    It was obvious that the Shepp community had (by and large) embraced them.

    That’s great to see. But I bet if they wanted to build a mosque there, the response may be somewhat different.

  • 69
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    It seems that some Imams who preach at the mosques are part of the trouble, backward-looking. There have been examples in Oz and UK.

  • 70
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    There are also many people who would jump up and down at the prospect of a happy clapper church going up in the neighborhood.

    And I would be one of them!

  • 71
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:21 am | PERMALINK
    Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

    The same thing has happened in Canberra where a tiny group has mounted an ACT Supreme Court challenge to the granting of planning approval. Otherwise there is little or no objection to the proposal.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-21/act-planners-too-chummy-with-gungahlin-mosque-developers/5337622

  • 72
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    The kiwi tory PM scored an invite PMBO would never get.

    (Bill)Clinton suggested a meeting at a French restaurant. Mr Key had Caesar salad and Mr Clinton had salmon.
    They talked about Iraq and what New Zealand could do in Africa with its agricultural expertise

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11276821

  • 73
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

    Lol

  • 74
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    WWP

    Do you live near a mosque or church?

  • 75
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    BK:

    There are also many people who would jump up and down at the prospect of a happy clapper church going up in the neighborhood.

    And I would be one of them!

    Me too! Luckily my local council pulled the plug on a Hillsong mega-church, due to community resistance.

  • 76
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    victoria@23

    JBishop being interviewed on ABC radio. Have to say that she is probably the best minister in this hopeless govt.

    I would have to agree with you there.
    She lacks the studied nastiness of some and the sheer stupidity of others.

  • 77
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    “@jessedorsett: #BREAKING Northern Land Council withdraws nomination of Muckerty Station in NT as site for Australia’s first nuclear waste dump. @abcnews”

  • 78
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

    Yep, those angry folks at Camden in far western Sydney are certainly concerned about parking. These are the same folks worried about refugees clogging up traffic on the freeways.

  • 79
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    kakuru

    Not real objections. That is objection to freedom of religion through fear of some people within the religion

  • 80
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    I have the Armenian Evangelical Church a Malcolm Blight torpedo kick from my door.

    This is not surprising when Jo Hockey is my federal member, Gladys Berejiklian is my state member and Vache Kahramanian was a recent candidate at a council election.

    Place is as quite as a mouse.

  • 81
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    Julian Assange obviously feels neglected

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-to-release-files-on-50-countries-20140619-zse02.html

  • 82
    adrian
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    As someone who doesn’t normally come into contact with the Daily Telecrap, I was amazed by the standard of journalism on display when having a coffee far away from my usual place.

    A prominent story, backed up by an Editorial proclaimed that viewer anger over bias (left wing of course) on the ABC was rising. Shock horror!!! I thought, but on what basis was this startling piece of investigative journalism produced??

    Why a whole 12, yes 12 complaints to ACMA (?), none of which were upheld!! Surely this spells the end of the credibility of the ABC.

    I think this Murdoch shit sheet operates on the basis that its readers only get as far as the headlines.

  • 83
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    guytaur, I’d object to a Hillsong mega-church for the same reason I’d object to a Wahhabist mosque. I take exception to any radical or ultra-conservative religious movement, whether its Christian or Muslim. I have no objection to churches or mosques per se.

  • 84
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    A pic from the NT News of Tones and Obama where Obama more openly expresses his feeling towards our PM :)

    http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2014/06/13/1226952/994347-87e339ea-f293-11e3-aad6-e5c45a718cb3.jpg

  • 85
    markjs
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    BK will be very happy with the HC decision on school chaplains funding…

    As will many of us :-)

  • 86
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    kakuru

    No your use of the word megachurch betrays you. Megachurch is noise and parking

  • 87
    Raaraa
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those nutjobs from Q Society are part of the objectors in Bendigo. They’re based in Altona and have nothing to do with Bendigo.

  • 88
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Jackson in the box

  • 89
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    Megachurch means Hillsong-style authoritarianism and Christian fundamentalism.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/hillsong–the-church-with-no-answers/2007/08/03/1185648145760.html

    Not on my watch.

  • 90
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    markjs
    YES!!!!!!

  • 91
    Raaraa
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

    I have to agree to this. And it’s only the minority in the congregation too who chose to park their car inappropriately, usually those who show up really late or can’t be arsed walking further.

    Not too different from a shopping centre on a big sale day with not enough parking.

  • 92
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    Hmmm. Ruling against the Fed government being able to fund chaplains is presumably the whole thorny question of the Feds being able to direct funding to State-level entities, and probably brings the whole constitutional issue of the Feds funding local government road programs etc into urgent focus.

    In the end it just means the State governments will have to be dealt in as the recipients of any funding.

    I don’t see this as a good thing, but I don’t see it preventing idiocy like the chaplains program … the Feds just have to give the money to the States with promises that the money will be used for what the Feds want it to be used for.

    ie if Pyne really just wants to fund Christian chaplains in schools, he will find a way to do it. It’s just that the current way of doing it isn’t ok according to the High Court, apparently.

  • 93
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    @chrisberg: magnificent win in the chaplains case – here’s what @simon_breheny said about it https://t.co/NrnzMuALNW and me http://t.co/hUfr3qgBov

  • 94
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Yep, it’s official. High Court has struck down the school chaplaincy program.

  • 95
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Weird.

    Andrew Casey ‏
    Tension in #turc hearing rooms is such that one person has now hired personal security to sit with them while observing proceedings

  • 96
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Jackol

    An interesting question can the Federal Government continue to blackmail the states over funding unless they it in a certain way.

    Coag coud really become a meeting of equals on issues instead of the current dominance of the Feds.

  • 97
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:49 am | PERMALINK
    The kiwi tory PM scored an invite PMBO would never get.

    (Bill)Clinton suggested a meeting at a French restaurant. Mr Key had Caesar salad and Mr Clinton had salmon.
    They talked about Iraq and what New Zealand could do in Africa with its agricultural expertise

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11276821

    While Key goes on an international charm offensive, Abbott goes to offend as many people as possible (except his new best friend in Canadia).

    On a Hawaii stopover on a previous trip Key got to play golf with Obama. Abbott not so.

  • 98
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    guytaur –

    Coag coud really become a meeting of equals on issues instead of the current dominance of the Feds.

    I think it clearly shifts power at least a little back in favour of the States.

    But, as I’m an abolish-the-States kind of guy I don’t see this as a good thing.

  • 99
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    @political_alert: Judgment summary of High Court ruling striking down funding for school chaplaincy scheme available here: http://t.co/RCWSP6yUce #auspol

  • 100
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Poor reporter on ABC24 IMO.

    Q. What was Mr Williams’ objection to chaplains in schools?
    A. I don’t know. He just didn’t like it.

    Not good enough.

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