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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 19, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United's recent dip in the polls.

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The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1296 comments

1,296 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

  1. [1236
    Everything]

    The LNP during the Howard/Costello era never ran a surplus that did not depend on selling assets. They ran a high-taxing/high-spending regime and then trashed public finance for decades to follow. Whenever the public sector ran a surplus, the private sector ran corresponding deficits, such that the private sector now has higher debts than at any time since the Depression.

    The LNP’s claims to be sound managers are simply fraudulent.

  2. Had I run my life on the basis of achieving a cash surplus every few years I have no doubt my family would have missed out on many opportunities. This debt obsession IMHO has almost religious overtones … it simply makes no sense in a modern capitalist economy where debt – private or public, has been the engine room of 20 + years of economic growth and prosperity..

  3. W. Bowe Esq @ 1244

    [I think Australian voters have made it clear enough over time that what they want is majority government.]

    I find this a peculiar statement. I think the “fear”of coalitions is a beat-up. We have few examples. Most of it is just media beat-up.

    Almost no “democratic” country has an blatantly unfair system like Australia: only UK (Westminster); Canada; USA; Australia, as far as I know. The other 90 or so manage without a legislated “majority” government.

    I think the fear of a more accurate voting system is controlling Party/Media generated.

  4. Rossmore what I was trying to point out was that even a very superficial look at the article shows it to be absolute tripe.
    Unfortunately some people without a scientific background will believe it and the debate on nuclear energy will be prevented by someone willing to deliberately deceive to push their agenda.

  5. 1249
    Everything

    Reckless spending is what comes of having…idiotic ideologues in office who think that trashing social incomes is a good idea; idiots who think that trashing the Carbon Price Mechanism is good economics; idiots who think that increasing fuel excise and taxes on medical services will improve household confidence….Reckless LNP stupidity that is already driving down consumer spending and harming demand for labour.

  6. Everything, still waiting for your nomination of an Oz company that has run a single annual budget surplus in the last 25 years. Are they all, like the ALP, complete failures for failing to do so.

  7. [Do companies spend more than they earn in income now do they?]

    Many many companies do. That income is a bad thing you have to pay tax.

  8. Yes, companies do spend more than they earn.

    Mining do this on a regular bases, this is why they hate paying for taxes, and also want regulatory certainty.

  9. zoidlord

    [Mining do this on a regular bases, this is why they hate paying for taxes, and also want regulatory certainty.]

    It’s why they need upfront/input subsidised diesel rebates.

    Everything will agree that foreign miners should get such rebates before they ever produce anything.

    You know it makes sense…. (if your aim is to enrich your mates)

  10. [We changed Government just in time, then :)]

    LoL yeah higher income tax for business and an ecomony crippled by a stupid treasurer who still talks it down, something an opposition finance spokesman should be dismissed for. Dangerously stupid.

  11. Re Govt policy on use of term”disputed ” rather than “Occupied Territories in Palestine….which pleased the jewish lobby

    Lara Tingle in the Fin. Review today suggests that much jewish money and support was directed to the Libs at the last elections rather than to Labor …. ‘Perhaps this was Abbott’s pay-off for their support

  12. Everything 1260 getting closer. Yes, many Oz companies are highly profitable year in year out as reflected in their share price. But I doubt any one of them have ever run a cash budget surplus. If you can nominate a single one I’d love to hear… Go on, check your voluminous spreadsheets, name me a single Oz company that has reported an annual cash surplus in the last 25 years. i’ll spare your misery, you cant.

  13. Don’t worry about it Rossmore, now that the Liberals are in charge the companies will be doing much better than they were under the ALP.

  14. [1265
    Everything….

    now that the Liberals are in charge the companies will be doing much better than they were under the ALP.]

    Not if Hockey has anything to do with it. Property has peaked and started falling, car sales are weakening, real incomes are falling, consumer and business confidence has crashed, investment plans are being wound back, labour demand has fallen from its peak under the previous government, State finances are struggling…the LNP are living up their potential and completely wrecking the place.

  15. Everything1265 Yes that’s the conventional LP article of faith. The retail sector is currently discovering that the theory doesn’t work in practice,

    Oh ye still waiting on your nomination of an Oz company that has run a single budget surplus in the last 25 years. Surely there could be one??? Surely there’s a stout, reputable, business that can show the Federal Government how to run a business surplus and succeed. Surely there would be one?

  16. Now the Liberals are in charge:

    1. We will go to war (that’s top priority)

    2. EVERY legal change will be for only three reasons:
    1 to support our Yankee Masters
    2 to move wealth from the poor to the rich (LNP)
    3 to get LNP re-elected.

    The ALP priority response: which Union official is next in line for being an MP?

  17. [1265/Everything]

    The LNP are keeping up their lifetime traditions…breaking promises, telling lies, smashing things, telling lies, driving inequality, telling lies, creating division, telling lies….

  18. [The ALP priority response: which Union official is next in line for being an MP?]

    John Curtin?
    Ben Chifley?
    Bob Hawke?

    Great unionists and great leaders.

  19. I dunno who started the ‘do companies run at a loss’ whatever line but whoever it was doesn’t understand company finances and tax *cough* mitigation.
    Here’s 1 recent example.
    Fella owns $1.8 billion wealth.
    His companies generate $154 million profit.
    His corporate tax is .. wait for it …$55,000.
    So he is recruited to be Tony’s financial adviser to the COALition.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lib-adviser-repays-43m-tax-20140523-38ufq.html

    Recently there have been examples of international companies operating in Oz, making millions of $$$s profit but paying no tax. Off shore tax haven and all that.
    Somebody here should be able to remember some of the names of those companies.

    In addition there are the companies that operate around my area who exist solely to deliberately make losses.
    Dozens of them.
    One acquaintance of mine said of a mutual friend who runs a business locally “Joe [not his real name] works really hard to make sure his business runs at a loss”.
    Its SOP around here for most, probably awfully close to all, companies.

    Or there is the mate of mine who got promoted to boss accountant of one of Australia’s major companies when his boss got the sack cos the company made a profit.
    My mates job was to shuffle numbers and other things around to make sure the company appeared [note that word] to be losing money.
    It made it elsewhere in places where tax was lower.
    All legal.

    Yep companies deliberately run at a loss.
    Well officially anyway.

  20. They lie about the economy. They lie about the budget. They lie about climate change. They lie about medicare, incomes for pensioners, education and unemployment insurance. They lie for breakfast, morning tea and lunch. For dinner they have some more.

  21. [1275
    Everything

    Is this reassuring for you?]

    Is that a silly question? The LNP are involved in the daily betrayal of the country’s best interests. They are a disgrace. They should be thrown from office for deception, treachery and contempt.

  22. Today for the first time for agesI read some of Mod Lib comments, why does anyone answer them? he(after reading some comments today has to be a he) is just hoping for attention?

    Anyway will go back to the usual scrolling past

    Lovely evening here on Milos for my last evening, not a cloud in the sky and 28 celsius at coming up to 6pm

  23. Not a silly question at all.

    You seem to feel better when you are able to vent your hatred of the Liberal party.

    This delusion you have the the Liberal party is out there to hurt as many Australians as it can is quite strong.

    The data that Australians have done quite well under Liberal governments, doesn’t sit well with you apparently.

  24. The LNP is essentially a Mafia… any corporatist interest can buy and own them;

    The coal industry
    international mining
    international finance and banking
    USA Christian fundamentalists

    The only group that does not own ten are ordinary Australians

    The only defence ordinary Australians have is the ALP

    poor fellow my country………

  25. swamprat…

    Anti-labor bigotry is usually a Liberal character fault. What did unions ever do to you that make you want to climb on the same platform as Hockey, Andrews, Robb, Abbott, Joyce…et al?

  26. briefly

    I am very pro unions.

    I am very anti ALP MPs being chosen because of stitch-ups.

    The fact that two people in WA can agree to appoint a person to winnable sense position regardless of his Liberal loyalties is to me illustrative of the meaningless and valueless of the ALP.

    The fact that intellectuals like you consider that this is normal is very sad to me.

  27. 1280
    Everything

    The data is quite the contrary from that which you assert…Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal Government….the proof is there if anyone cares to look.

    Fraser…terrible recession, mismanaged the budget…Hawke/Keating rebuilt the economy, expanded the social wage, cut taxes….Howard cut social incomes and policies, implemented tax policies that worsened inequality, buggered up public finances and attempted to impose Wrok Choices…all aimed at harming the incomes of average households…

    Abbott….intent on wrecking the post-war social compact, destroying meaningful energy and environmental policies, stuffing up education, welfare, retirement incomes, minimum wages…on and on and on…

    What’s not to object to…!!

  28. 1284
    swamprat

    I think Labor should take real measures to further democratise itself, and this means unions will have to relinquish some of their power. Your language simply makes you appear hostile to Labor and unions…which rather begs the question why you might think they should be accountable to you or those who hold similar views?

  29. Everything Right Wing

    [This delusion you have the the Liberal party is out there to hurt as many Australians as it can is quite strong.]

    Haha what a joke.

    In my 60+ years of life my experience of the Liberal Party is began with the
    Vietnam war where it was compulsory to go and die for the Liberal Party whether you wanted to of not.

    I knew young men of 18 who were forced to go and kill in your Liberal War ands they were in fact killed though they were desperate no to go bt they had no choice.

    To me Evreything an LNP shithead like you says is determined by your grab-as-much-as i can-c; am-i-rich-enough-, am-i-fat-enough, am-i-yankee-enough….

  30. briefly

    The ALP is not accountable to me at all.

    I have yet to meet a human that was.

    But in a duo ploy where the electoral system is so unequal, who can we complain about?

    Its either the increasibly right wing LNP or the increasingly right wing ALP

  31. Briefly

    The Greek islands are wonderful (this time of year especially or in September) before and after the heat and crazy tourists. Unfortunately nor enjoying as much as I usually do with my pulled back muscle, the families I stay with are wonderful, organising to take the suitcase on and off the ferry,here in Milos he has a taxidriver mate in Athns who will come up to the ferry and take me to the Hilton then 2 days later will take me out to the airport. Even more important I won’t be ripped off. BTW not bad 2 bedroom unit for 45euros a night

  32. Psephos

    [Even if Fukushima in the long run does kill 2,000 or 20,000 or 200,000 Japanese, that is still less than the number who will die if we don’t stop burning carbon. ]

    True, and one might add that if Fukushima had not opened in 1964 then Japan would absolutely have emitted somewhere between 30 and 50 times the CO2 it emitted from the Fukushima complex operation during those years.

    Fortunately, it’s most unlikely that as many as 200 people will die prematurely in the long run as a result of the disruption to the plant complex. The problem with Fukushima was that recommendations for independent power during a SCRAM incident (emergency shutdown) was not adopted in 1999, largely because the plant was slated for decommission. Had they done one or another, there’d have been no serious incident.

    Of course, building the plant at sea level, while cheaper, was mad. The 1960 Val Verde tidal wave reached Japan, so they ought to have known better. This was a failure of governance rather than the technology.

    [If we can do that by turning to renewables, fine. But the evidence at present is that we can’t, at least not for a long time. ]

    I don’t agree here. Certainly, including nuclear power in the mix makes things a good deal easier in theory and my party is wrong to oppose nuclear power on principle, but there’s no persuasive body of evidence that renewables alone couldn’t get us where we need to be on the timelines needed. The problem in Australia is that for obvious reasons, none of the parties will propose nuclear power. So the question is really — what other suite of technologies can we adopt to make rapid progress towards decarbonisation in the interim. We cannot afford to waste this time. If you’re in a hurry to get somewhere, and you don’t know when the next bus is coming, waiting about because the bus is more efficient than walking briskly and hitching is silly. If people agree with nuclear power in 2020 and we get it by 2035 covering the last 40% great, but in the meantime let’s end thermal coal and keep gas to a minimum.

    Renewables can do that, while at this stage and for the foreseeable future nuclear can’t do that. The coal people have their enemies wedged if we make this nuclear v renewables.

  33. […even a very superficial look at the article shows it to be absolute tripe.
    Unfortunately some people without a scientific background will believe it and the debate on nuclear energy will be prevented by someone willing to deliberately deceive to push their agenda.]

    O C – Can you please explain why this statement is valid?

    Less than 2% of kids are usually found to have thyroid nodules yet in this study nearly 50% had them. Ok so allowing for the increase in kids tested and the more sensitive testing methods … are you suggesting its normal for nearly half of all kids to have some sort of thyroid nodule or cyst? IE if we tested the population of the world using the same methods nearly 50% of all children would have some sort of thyroid nodule or cyst at any one time?

    Or are these figures somehow suspect.

    Or what?