tip off

BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United’s recent dip in the polls.

The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

1296
  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    @BernardKeane: Shorter HC: No constitutional head of power to make payments for chaplains. Yet another Howard-era legal structure demolished.

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Lizzie

    I agree especially as the ABC interviewed Mr Williams at the start of this case and got his reasons

  • 103
    Atticus
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Assuming this ABC report on HC decision is accurate, I am baffled about what will change other than the path of payment via grants to states. Will, for example, this mean each state would decide whether to allow non-religious advisers to be employed as per Labor’s policy?

    Today Mr Williams won his challenge over the validity of that law.

    The main question examined in the case was whether the executive government had the power to fund such programs directly through local organisations.

    The national body for school chaplains has said it believes the program will survive despite a court ruling against the funding arrangements, saying the payments could continue as state and territory grants.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-19/high-court-delivers-verdict-on-school-chaplaincy-program/5534546

  • 104
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    UK Politics. ‘Dave’ taking a leaf from JW Howard’s dog whistling book:

    British values aren’t optional, they’re vital. That’s why I will promote them in EVERY school: As row rages over ‘Trojan Horse’ takeover of our classrooms, the Prime Minister delivers this uncompromising pledge...

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2658171/DAVID-CAMERON-British-values-arent-optional-theyre-vital-Thats-I-promote-EVERY-school-As-row-rages-Trojan-Horse-takeover-classrooms-Prime-Minister-delivers-uncompromising-pledge.html#ixzz352aOrnw6

    And a decent critque of ‘Dave’s OpEd:

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/06/what-are-cameron-british-values-201461810827740835.html

  • 105
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    And I must be missing something.

    The Guardian are quoting Twomey laying out the history of the Chaplaincy challenges, and she says (with respect of the ALP ‘patching’ the legislative hole after the first challenge succeeded):

    (This) legislation was rammed through the parliament. There was very little scrutiny of the legislation.

    And this was a criticism of (I believe) Brandis in opposition at the time.

    But surely the problem for the chaplaincy funding (and the various other associated issues with local government roads funding etc) is that there isn’t a constitutional basis for the Federal government to fund stuff outside of the Federal government’s explicit areas of responsibility – ie it doesn’t matter how much scrutiny there was or how carefully any such legislation might have been drafted, the HC has found that the Federal government simply can’t do what they’ve been doing in this regard…

    Or have I missed something?

  • 106
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    News Ltd continued their relentless attack run to help the Government attack the welfare claims:
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/dole-recipients-refusing-to-work-has-almost-tripled-in-past-three-years/story-e6frfm9r-1226959022150

  • 107
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but does this mean George Brandis was actually right!

    The national body for school chaplains has said it believes the program will survive despite a court ruling against the funding arrangements, saying the payments could continue as state and territory grants.

    The states backed Mr Williams in both of his High Court challenges, over concerns the Commonwealth was using the mechanism to bypass them.

    In 2012, when Labor's new law was being debated, then-shadow attorney-general George Brandis described Labor's legislation as a "bandaid" solution that would not "meet the tests the High Court set out" after the 2012 decision.

    The program was introduced by the Howard government in 2006 and later extended by the Rudd government.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-19/high-court-delivers-verdict-on-school-chaplaincy-program/5534546

  • 108
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Ronald Williams can lay claim to be the most successful personal litigant in High Court history.

  • 109
    Martin B
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Assuming this ABC report on HC decision is accurate, I am baffled about what will change other than the path of payment via grants to states. Will, for example, this mean each state would decide whether to allow non-religious advisers to be employed as per Labor’s policy?

    the Feds can set conditions for the grants, but the states have to administer them and can always say “no thanks”. So yes, I imagine there will have to be negotiation and agreement between the Commonwealth and the states.

  • 110
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Shepparton does, of course, have a mosque. In fact, it has four.

  • 111
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Tim Carmody was appointed to the job of Chief Justice over short-listed favourite Supreme Court Judge Justice David Jackson.

    And it was Premier Campbell Newman - not Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie - who made the decision to back Justice Carmody in the role over Justice Jackson, who has spent 35 years at the bar, including 22 years as a Queen’s Counsel.

    Several sources have confirmed that Justice Jackson headed an “unofficial’’ shortlist, with several people trying to convince Mr Newman of the problems that would result from Justice Carmody’s appointment.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/blogs/that-thinking-feeling/tim-carmody-leapfrogged-favourite-for-chief-justice-role-20140618-3ad9i.html#ixzz352dmTAif

  • 112
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    Sir Mad

    No credit to Brandis. AS AG he kept defending the Howard Rudd actions and putting chaplain funding in the budget shows the view you quote was not folowed

  • 113
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    Jackol

    the constitutional question regarding direct funding by the Federal government may have interesting flow ons for the Liberals.

    Whilst opposing the referendum to allow direct funding to local councils, the Libs made some hefty commitments to local councils re road funding – just short of $2 million for one council in Indi, for example.

  • 114
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    WWP

    Do you live near a mosque or church?

    I was an elected member of a local government where a mosque application was lodged for an area choca block with churches including decrepit Anglican monuments that didn’t ever seem to have a person inside right through the range to a very personality based evangelic Pentecostal church that erupted in tongues of angels and loud rock music at the flow of the Spirit (literally if one is inclined to believe them) and I can swear the opposition to the mosque had nothing at all to do with parking or any other valid planning issue.

    I live in a new master planned community the churches meet in three areas – the Anglicans and Catholics have a chapel on very big school grounds (no objections) the smaller independents meet in council halls my rates pay for (no objections) and the bigger pente churches are in light industrial areas as seems to be the fashion for them.

  • 115
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    Zoomster

    The decision does restrict the opportunity for pork barrelling so in that regard this is good news for Labor

  • 116
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    PM and Morrison presser coming up soon

  • 117
    dave
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    Similar attitude of Gina ? Not sure how much she donates though -

    Steve Forbes tells Washington Post readers to ‘thank the billionaires’; op-ed backfires spectacularly

    In the op-ed, Forbes credits wealthy individuals for taking up the banner of social justice, “sparking a golden age of philanthropy not seen since the days of Rockefeller, Carnegie and Morgan.”

    How did today’s wealthiest Americans make their billions? Forbes’s answer: Business sense, entrepreneurship and capitalism, resulting in “a shift towards low-cost, high impact solutions that address the root of social ills.”

    He implores his fellow Americans not to resent the billionaires among them, but to defend them,

    Reaction -

    ...“It is insulting that Forbes thinks the rest of us are too stupid to do simple capitalist math. Billionaires take a disproportionate share of the wealth, throw back a token amount at charity, and then want us to “Thank” them for their generosity.” — 1230slim

    ....“We’ve tried this ‘trickle down’ bs for decades now. It’s failing us. Make the roots stronger, trickle up. The only way to do it where everyone wins.” — GodEmperorLeto

    ....“Yeah right, but not creating jobs. The essential element of capitalism involves a selfish disregard of everyone around them. Until you find a way of taking out selfishness it will always be a flawed system.” — Bigtrain

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/themargin/2014/06/17/steve-forbes-tells-washington-post-readers-to-thank-the-billionaires-op-ed-backfires-spectacularly/

  • 118
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    kakuru@83

    guytaur, I’d object to a Hillsong mega-church for the same reason I’d object to a Wahhabist mosque. I take exception to any radical or ultra-conservative religious movement, whether its Christian or Muslim. I have no objection to churches or mosques per se.

    Given their proven connection with extremism and terrorism, Wahhabists should be banned from entry to the country and not permitted to establish or fund any organisation including mosques in Australia.

    Other Moslems don’t bother me in the least and those I meet are just ordinary people.

    I do feel uneasy about people who wear masks or otherwise hide their faces. I encountered a woman in a niquab yesterday and it just creeps me out. Head scarves, not a problem and some are quite attractive.

  • 119
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:02 am | Permalink

    guytaur,

    Yes a fair point.

  • 120
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:02 am | Permalink

    bemused

    Yes. Object not to religion but to those using reigion to promote terrorism and other crime.

    I agree with the face covering thing. Same applies to those wearing motorcyle helmets when not on their bike understandably wearing when going back on the nike shortly. Still gives creepy feeling

  • 121
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott and Scott Morrison holding joint media conf. PM Abbott ‘today marks six months since the last successful people smuggling venture’”

  • 122
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says he’s not declaring victory and no hint of ‘mission accomplished’ on stopping asylum seeker boats reaching Australia. @abcnews”

  • 123
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 2m

    Australia’s tobacco consumption in the post plain packaging era make the Irish Times where similar laws are pending http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/smoke-and-mirrors-as-big-tobacco-fights-australian-plain-packaging-law-1.1837263

    sortius ‏@sortius 2m

    I notice that @MatthewGuyMP makes no mention of the Liberal party on his trolldium #springst

    sortius ‏@sortius 2m

    Liberal party: too toxic to mention on their own MPs’ backdrops #springst

  • 124
    BK
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    I do feel uneasy about people who wear masks or otherwise hide their faces. I encountered a woman in a niquab yesterday and it just creeps me out. Head scarves, not a problem and some are quite attractive.

    I agree.

  • 125
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    @guytaur/121

    Abbott and Morroscum is lying.

  • 126
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    JB Hi-Fi has joined the queue of retailers reporting a slowdown in the wake of May's federal budget.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/jb-hifi-backs-profit-guidance-despite-sales-slowdown-20140619-3af59.html#ixzz352jiKylC

  • 127
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Cheaper, Faster, Quicker Internet?

    http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/547852/judgement_reserved_telstra_underground_duct_access_pricing_dispute/

    That’s another lie.

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    “@davrosz: Jackson’s testimony now a litter of “can’t recall”, “don’t know” and “not sure”s. #turc The wheels of the #Jacksonville bus are falling off.”

  • 129
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    Abbott claims no trumpet blowing at presser to blow trumpet

  • 130
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    As in .
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yVoRYVvHi54/Uk8GDmjV0BI/AAAAAAAACU4/wW3dMD-s94k/s1600/montypythonhg0450.jpg

  • 131
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    BK@124


    I do feel uneasy about people who wear masks or otherwise hide their faces. I encountered a woman in a niquab yesterday and it just creeps me out. Head scarves, not a problem and some are quite attractive.


    I agree.

    When I was in Malaysia I was quite impressed by what the ladies wore there. Some beautiful colourful designs and they looked quite attractive in them.

    OTOH, a lot did not wear them and were quite at liberty to not wear them. Same in Indonesia it seems.

  • 132
    1934pc
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    “”Shepparton does, of course, have a mosque. In fact, it has four.”"

    Bradford in the UK has FORTY!..

    Be warned!.

  • 133
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    this tweet says it all

    @davrosz Jackson's failure to get bank statements to back her claims can only mean one thing.

  • 134
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    If this RC is fair dinkum, they would direct KJackson to obtain copies of bank statements from the bank to back up her claims

  • 135
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    @davrosz Jackson's failure to get bank statements to back her claims can only mean one thing

    The banks are part of the conspiracy out to get her ? :)

  • 136
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    Abbott the coward backing down again over DD

    Now its we will work with the parliament we will have

  • 137
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    poroti

    Lol!

  • 138
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    A bit of bad news to those who attribute any disadvantage suffered by women to sexism.

    I encountered this interesting article in the AFR yesterday and fortunately it is also online.

    No maths widens the gender pay gap

    Girls’ rejection of maths and science ­in high school accounts for more than half the pay gap between male and female university graduates and is stopping women getting to the top in business.

    Caltex chairman Elizabeth Bryan said the sharp fall in the number of girls taking maths and science subjects, highlighted by reporting in The Australian Financial Review, will rob them of the chance to take leadership roles in business and jeopardise the push to get more women into top jobs.

    Ms Bryan said it was “distressing” that girls were shunning maths and the hard sciences in high school, subjects which were the basic foundations of ­corporate careers.

    New figures from Graduate Careers Australia show girls’ avoidance of maths and science subjects results in women earning 5 per cent less than males in their first job after graduating from university.

    So what is the solution to this?

    It isn’t ranting about ‘sexism’, it is to encourage girls to stick with maths and hard sciences.

    I have forwarded the article to my eldest granddaughter and her parents and am on her case to encourage her to stick with maths and will give her any support I can.

    But then I am just a hopeless old misogynist… :lol:

  • 139
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    vic – The CBA only keeps 7 years of Bank Statement data.

  • 140
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Last time I had in depth dealings with a bank abt 10 years ago was in the process of sorting out a property settlement.

    I was somewhat surprised to find that the old file of paper relating to a mortgage from 20 years earlier had been digitised and every document I had, or had not, signed and every statement from the pre-online days was there on the screen.

    If the royal commission wants bank statements it can get them. If it is dinkum it will get them. The lost in a flood alibi doesn’t wash.

  • 141
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    If this RC is fair dinkum, they would direct KJackson to obtain copies of bank statements from the bank to back up her claims

    No RC has power to direct a person to obtain another party’s documents.

    Stoljar has been asking her about bank documents which the RC has obtained for itself.

  • 142
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    KJackson is being questioned about stuff from 2009 at the moment. She said that she kept a track of funds expended in an exercise book which has been lost

  • 143
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    Refer to rossmcg post

  • 144
    citizen
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    LOOKING after the environment does not have to come at the expense of jobs, former Liberal leader John Hewson has told a conference in Melbourne.

    DR Hewson launched a new report showing Victoria can create 225,000 jobs during the next 15 years by protecting its natural assets.

    Economic activity in key sectors could also grow by $36 billion over the same time by restoring environmental assets.

    Dr Hewson said the report showed responding to climate change was not at odds with business opportunities and growth.

    This was in contrast to recent comments by Prime Minister Tony Abbott when he was in Canada and the US recently, he said...

    "It does not need to be a trade off between growth and employment on the one hand and responding adequately to climate change on the other.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/saving-environment-jobs-growth-linked/story-e6frfku9-1226959723272

  • 145
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Good response by Australian Education Union to HC decision

  • 146
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    @farrm51: PM Abbott to play with the cards Senate dealt him. No Early election. http://t.co/3iP7tIDDpl

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    So two years of Palmer in the spotlight. Thats going to see votes shift

  • 148
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Why is Williams challenging the constitutionality of government handouts?

    Basically, he is a zealot.

  • 149
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    @guytaur/146

    Abbott is now weak as, shows no backbone.

  • 150
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    Poor Joe has to stew in his own juice for a while

    Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey has been unsuccessful in his bid to have his defamation suit against Fairfax Media heard this year.
    Mr Hockey's senior counsel, Bruce McClintock, told the Federal Court on Thursday that the treasurer had a "two-week window" in November and wanted the case to be heard then.
    "It's important that the vindication is speedy," Mr McClintock said.
    He added Mr Hockey had "significant public responsibilities and duties, like being in parliament".

    Counsel for Fairfax, including junior counsel Sandy Dawson, are not available in November.
    "To have Fairfax lose its counsel now would slow the proceedings down, in fact," Mr Dawson said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-unsuccessful-in-bid-to-have-defamation-case-heard-this-year-20140619-zseak.html#ixzz352t0dASj

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