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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 22, 2014

Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor

One of the last polls we will get from Nielsen finds the pollster returning the pack, after reporting a particularly big post-budget blowout last month.

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GhostWhoVotes relates that what I believe will be Fairfax’s second final monthly Nielsen poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. While being well on trend, this marks a big improvement for the Coalition on last month, which was their worst poll result of the post-budget blowout: 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40% for Labor, 35% for the Coalition and 14% for the Greens. Leadership ratings to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The Nielsen poll has Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 35% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Bill Shorten down five to 42% and up two to 41%; and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 51-40 to 47-40. Questions on preferred party leaders found Malcolm Turnbull favoured to lead the Liberal Party by 40% compared with 21% for Abbott and 11% for both Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, while Bill Shorten led the Labor pack with 25% to 19% for Anthony Albanese, 17% for Tanya Plibersek and 7% each for Tony Burke and Chris Bowen. A question from the previous poll concerning whether the budget was fair was revisited, again finding 33% agreeing that it was, with disagreement down two points to 61%. On the question of sending Australian soldiers to Iraq, 31% said they would be in favour with 66% opposed.

Other recent polling snippets:

• The Sunday News Limited papers report that a Galaxy Research poll of 1010 women aged between 18 and 44 found 60% thought the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme was fair, with 29% thinking it not fair and 6% believing it was not enough.

The Conversation reports a JWS Research poll conducted for the Climate Institute finds a 10% increase in belief in (presumably anthropogenic) climate change since 2012 to 70%, together with a range of negative results for the government: a net rating of minus 18% for the present government’s performance on climate change compared with minus 1% for the previous government in the earlier poll, and a slight majority of 34% to 30% in favour of the carbon pricing laws, a dramatic reversal from the 28% and 52% recorded in 2012.

Roy Morgan has a phone poll of 638 respondents on the biggest problems facing Australia, which has “politics and leadership” up seven points since February to 18%, the economy up three points to 42% and “religion/immigration/human rights” down seven to 9%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly result from Essential Research records a move back to the Coalition, who are up one on the primary vote to 40% with Labor down three to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are steady on 9% and 5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48. Further questions relate to Iraq, with 25% thinking the 2003 invasion the right decision versus 50% for the wrong decision, 53% nominating “to support the USA” as the Howard government’s main reason for getting involved, 39% saying they would approve of US action to support the Iraq government in its current crisis with military action with 31% opposed, and 54% saying they would disapprove of Australia sending troops with 30% approving.

The poll also finds 28% felt the Greens holding the Senate balance of power was good for Australia versus 37% for bad, with 26% and 39% responses for the looming circumstance of Palmer United and micro-parties holding the balance of power. We also get the regular arsenal of “leaders attributes” questions applied to Clive Palmer and Christine Milne, with the former turning up rather poorly, with high rating for arrogant, aggressive and erratic. Christine Milne breaks 50% on “out of touch with ordinary people”, but otherwise seems to have made less of an impression. Both rate quite highly on intelligent and hard-working, but successful politicians nearly always do.

Finally, the poll finds only 19% agreeing with Tony Abbott that no election promises were broken in the budget, with 72% disagreeing.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2075 comments

2,075 thoughts on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor

  1. taylormade

    confessions @ 2013

    Golf sticks will be staying in the shed on Saturday.

  2. guytaur

    Well there you have it. Thank you Al Gore 🙂 Also credit to Palmer for not being a denier

  3. guytaur

    @tveedercom: Al Gore “was able to enlighten me on a number of aspects about climate change which I wasn’t fully familiar with” #LateLine

  4. nappin

    It’s not the whole country, Dio. Just around a half of it, and they have a different, somewhat privileged perspective.

  5. kezza2

    Diogs
    [I’m sure there is some truth to that.]
    Nice little rort, eh what?

    Don’t even have to worry about bothering the ATO. Signed, sealed and delivered.

  6. guytaur

    “@DrCraigEmerson: .@trevorlong PUP won’t get its ETS bill legislated. Government will block In the House. PUP won’t insist on it. So bill dies. #lateline”

  7. guytaur

    I am disappointed about the ETS.

    Glad about all the support on CC. As for playing with Abbott’s mind just brilliant 🙂

  8. Libertarian Unionist

    [Have we really reached the stage where we accept a 49% risk of an asylum seeker being attacked if they are sent home?]

    Yep, it’s a bloody disgrace.

  9. caf

    If PUP were really serious about having this zero-capped ETS in place they could try to amend the repeal bills so that instead of repealing the existing legislation holus-bolus, it instead neuters it into their preferred form.

  10. zoidlord

    lol.

    Lady Van Badham ‏@vanbadham 1m

    “I’m not a politician” “I’m just a member of parliament” Clive, thank you. Bringing the LOLS. SO. MANY. LOLS. #lateline

  11. victoria

    guytaur

    I thought Palmer said at earlier that ETS stays but not enacted until other trading oartners are on board. Now it seems it is not the case.

  12. guytaur

    victoria

    Yes I thought the same. Mr Palmer did repeat about that too.

    @lyndalcurtis: So (no.2) Clive has legisltn ready to go on a thing he was convinced of today by Al Gore and announced at a presser flagged a few day ago

    As you can see I think we are going to have to wait for Labor and the Greens sort it out before the voting happens

  13. Bugler

    Guytaur,

    Doesn’t his plan, as it sits now, entail him not paying for his emissions for an indeterminate, or permanent, period of time. Or perhaps until he divests from the resource sector.

  14. WeWantPaul

    [Have we really reached the stage where we accept a 49% risk of an asylum seeker being attacked if they are sent home?

    Yep, it’s a bloody disgrace.]

    I think Abbott has played this wrong – I think we are racist but not that racist.

    If it is a test necessary to weed out the pretenders it essentially undermines the ‘economic refugee’ lie / line of many including some self appointed experts in everything here.

  15. crikey whitey

    Clive.

    The Dealer, the Joker, the Bank.

    Raise yer Abbott and Harper.

    Against my three of a kind.

    President, Vice president and me.

  16. victoria

    guytaur

    We shall have to see what transpires.

  17. guytaur

    Bugler

    Yes I think this is where confusion comes in. Palmer trying to have his cake and eat it too

  18. Centre

    Clive Palmer commenting on The Australia “it’s just fish’n’chip paper”. Never a truer word.

    Did the Bludgers spot the contradiction in Palmer’s comments?

    On one hand Palmer will not accept any parts of the current legislation that converts to an ETS.

    On the other, Palmer will not rewrite the legislation to introduce his own ETS but will only make amendments to the current legislation.

    Hmmm?

    *night

  19. Bugler

    [@lyndalcurtis: So (no.2) Clive has legisltn ready to go on a thing he was convinced of today by Al Gore and announced at a presser flagged a few day ago]

    He’ll have forgotten about it tomorrow. The one thing I will give him credit for is that he has more or less guarantee that his party not only exists at the next election but will exist after it as well.

  20. victoria

    Centre

    Yep. Not real impressed right about now. Night to you

    Anyhoo on twitter

    [Now @CliveFPalmer & @TurnbullMalcolm dinner makes sense. #ets #auspol]

  21. Jackol

    If you pay attention to exactly what Palmer said at his presser this afternoon, and repeated in that Lateline interview, he made it quite clear that PUP would support the full repeal of the current carbon price.

    He added his conditional ETS description as specifically tied to the (non-)repeal of the CCA as amendments to the Climate Change Authority repeal bill (which doesn’t make sense and I would say simply can’t be done – you can’t amend legislation that does one thing to do something utterly different). Regardless of those nonsensical elements, Palmer made it quite clear that the new Palmer-ETS would be dealt with separately to the repeal of the carbon price and that repeal of the carbon price was not going to be conditional on any agreements from the government to support the Palmer-ETS. ie the Palmer-ETS, if it ever exists in legislative form, will never get up, and Palmer shows no particular commitment to getting it up.

    ie as far as it goes the carbon price still appears dead with no replacement, based on what Palmer said today.

  22. Centre

    To clarify, yes, Palmer only wants an ETS if it participates with Europe, China, Japan, USA and South Korea.

    He’s still got the Monkey by the marbles who is against any form of carbon pricing.

    *crashed

  23. guytaur

    Well it goodnight from me.

    Still happy with Palmer with what he has done. Its more than I expected him to do on carbon pricing.

  24. guytaur

    sorry abatement not pricing

  25. Bugler

    [To clarify, yes, Palmer only wants an ETS if it participates with Europe, China, Japan, USA and South Korea.]

    If he’s arguing for a unified one across all these jurisdictions, then it’s designed to fail, which, as I believe Jackol is saying, is probably his plan. Our carbon price is already linked to the European one, why wouldn’t that be good enough.

    Side question, if there is a fixed price on Carbon emissions of zilch, would the tariffs and excises, etc that the EU places on companies coming from jurisdictions without carbon prices still be levied?

  26. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Newspoll VIC State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1) #springst

  27. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll VIC State Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (-1) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 16 (+3) #springst #auspol

  28. Tom the first and best

    2051

    You might want to post that on the Victorian Thread.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/06/25/nielsen-56-44-to-labor-in-victoria/

  29. zoidlord

    I rarely post in the other threads.

  30. zoidlord

    Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 2m

    @CliveFPalmer @algore Well done Clive .The RET and climate initiatives keep Aus open for this century’s business -watch your arse he’s angry

  31. teh_drewski

    Palmer has no leverage on Abbott at all that I can see. He’s going to pass the carbon tax repeal – he might have a “protect the consumers!”fight first, but he’ll pass it – then he’s got some vague plan to legislate a future ETS…which will never pass the lower house.

    Think Gore’s been sold an absolute turkey here. I’m astonished by how credulously the Bludgertariat and Twittersphere is taking this.

    Having said that, saving the CEFC and the RET are unambiguous wins, so it’s not all bad.

  32. caf

    [The one thing I will give him credit for is that he has more or less guarantee that his party not only exists at the next election but will exist after it as well.]

    Unless the next election is a DD that was already likely to be the case, since the 3 PUP Senators have 6 year terms starting next week.

  33. zoidlord

    I think the saving of CEFC and RET were the main things.

    Saving RET also allows renewable energy to continue in Australia.

  34. victoria

    On twitter

    [@vanbadham Rumour Palmer wants Turnbull as PM and will do anything to undermine Abbott to get rid of him #auspol]

    Anyhoo night al

  35. markjs

    Thanx for saving the RET & CEFC Mr Palmer..

    No thanx for repealing the Carbon Pricing mechanism …and replacing it with a mirage …rather than an ETS. You managed to fool Laura Tingle, & Bushfire though …so kudos for that

    WTF were you doing at Mr Palmer’s side, Mr Gore?!!

  36. Martin B

    [He added his conditional ETS description as specifically tied to the (non-)repeal of the CCA as amendments to the Climate Change Authority repeal bill (which doesn’t make sense and I would say simply can’t be done – you can’t amend legislation that does one thing to do something utterly different). ]

    Yes, that’s the (really) weird bit. Since he presumably wants to defeat the CCA repeal bill it doesn’t make sense to amend it, unless the original repeal bill is first turned around entirely.

  37. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    If it gives Abbott some sleepless nights, then there is positive in this for the ALP. I watched the Lateline i/v and I have no idea what Palmer is doing or is going to do.

    Nor does Tony. 😆 :devil:

  38. markjs

    Craig Emerson @DrCraigEmerson

    “Right, PUP won’t insist on its ETS bill passing in scrapping the carbon price. So no carbon price, no ETS. No wonder Govt happy” #lateline

  39. crikey whitey

    I watched Lateline too.

    No idea either, of Clive’s intent.

    ‘Think Gore’s been sold an absolute turkey here. I’m astonished by how credulously the Bludgertariat and Twittersphere is taking this.’

    Desperate hope, that would be.

    Watching Lateline, one could gain only the impression that Clive is winging it.

    TJ did whatever to point out Clive’s backflips and inconsistense.

    This method doesn’t work in the Clive case.

    Because clearly Clive is willing to suggest that he will change his position at any given moment.

    Hardly unusual.

    Suggest we all bombard him about whatever climate boeuf we have.

  40. Leroy Lynch

    Malcolm Farnsworth
    http://australianpolitics.com/2014/06/26/the-result-of-palmers-stunt.html
    [The Result Of Clive Palmer’s Al Gore Stunt: Carbon Tax Abolished, ETS Dead
    Jun 26, 2014

    The cynicism of today’s stunt by Clive Palmer became clear late tonight as the Palmer United Party leader confirmed that his senators will vote for the abolition of the carbon tax and the emissions trading scheme.]

  41. Psephos

    My giant Senate timeline. I might do one for the Reps but it would be a much bigger job.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/senate.GIF

  42. Tom the first and best

    2067

    Impressive.

    However, the surname of the PUP Senator-elect for WA is Wang not Wong.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhenya_Wang

  43. Norwester

    I’d be surprised if there hadn’t been a little advance warning of sorts to Shorten from Gore’s people before the PR circus today. Shorten’s position statement today was pretty good and not at all out of whack with potential outcomes that can flow from the Palmer statement.

    What a classic re: Palmer and Gore. I haven’t chuckled this much reading PB page after page for ages.

    Palmer looked to have been briefed at least to a reasonable extent about a lot of the issues and it was very kind of Jones to put ARENA on his list to review. I’ve got some neat stuff to send him re: the benefits of keeping ARENA. Thought ARENA was gawn but now maybe not?

    Speaking of gawn… team Abbott / Credlin are only hanging in there with support from News Ltd and an assortment of spivs.

    Murdoch will try even harder to nuke Palmer. Question is now whether US seriously investigates Murdoch empire. While we in Australia are helpless against the News Ltd evil, my guess is that his influence in the polity of this country must be being taken increasingly seriously by collectively far more powerful worldwide interests.

    Fingers crossed we will not have to wait too much longer for his empire’s demise.

    As for concerns re: Palmer and whether he’ll back down – he won’t. It appears the equivalent of what BB suggested – ie locking him in a room with people who can articulate the issue – has occurred and worked. Gore would not have rocked up today for the announcement otherwise. Obama’s people will be keeping a close eye on where this goes.

    Would love to be a fly on the wall at the Palmer / Abbott breakfast. But that will just be the next little circus event. This is going to play on for a fair while yet.

  44. Raaraa

    1999

    Al Gore side by side with Palmer and not the Greens – that must be devastating for the Greens.

    Hardly. Everyone wins that way, including us. Gore and Milne would not have been a story, precisely because Palmer represents rightwing voters.

    I would imagine that if Gore were to side with the Greens, the right-wing would just dismiss the whole thing as a climate change circle jerk.

  45. Raaraa

    I still think Rudd should have pulled the DD trigger on CPRS to eliminate crossbencher opposition in the Senate, rather than have to water down CPRS to appease the Libs.

  46. Otiose

    Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Senate, #Palmer gets laid, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1lUlvPM

  47. Martin B

    [My giant Senate timeline.]

    Gorton appears to have left slightly prematurely.