tip off

Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor

One of the last polls we will get from Nielsen finds the pollster returning the pack, after reporting a particularly big post-budget blowout last month.

GhostWhoVotes relates that what I believe will be Fairfax’s second final monthly Nielsen poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. While being well on trend, this marks a big improvement for the Coalition on last month, which was their worst poll result of the post-budget blowout: 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40% for Labor, 35% for the Coalition and 14% for the Greens. Leadership ratings to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The Nielsen poll has Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 35% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Bill Shorten down five to 42% and up two to 41%; and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 51-40 to 47-40. Questions on preferred party leaders found Malcolm Turnbull favoured to lead the Liberal Party by 40% compared with 21% for Abbott and 11% for both Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, while Bill Shorten led the Labor pack with 25% to 19% for Anthony Albanese, 17% for Tanya Plibersek and 7% each for Tony Burke and Chris Bowen. A question from the previous poll concerning whether the budget was fair was revisited, again finding 33% agreeing that it was, with disagreement down two points to 61%. On the question of sending Australian soldiers to Iraq, 31% said they would be in favour with 66% opposed.

Other recent polling snippets:

• The Sunday News Limited papers report that a Galaxy Research poll of 1010 women aged between 18 and 44 found 60% thought the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme was fair, with 29% thinking it not fair and 6% believing it was not enough.

The Conversation reports a JWS Research poll conducted for the Climate Institute finds a 10% increase in belief in (presumably anthropogenic) climate change since 2012 to 70%, together with a range of negative results for the government: a net rating of minus 18% for the present government’s performance on climate change compared with minus 1% for the previous government in the earlier poll, and a slight majority of 34% to 30% in favour of the carbon pricing laws, a dramatic reversal from the 28% and 52% recorded in 2012.

Roy Morgan has a phone poll of 638 respondents on the biggest problems facing Australia, which has “politics and leadership” up seven points since February to 18%, the economy up three points to 42% and “religion/immigration/human rights” down seven to 9%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly result from Essential Research records a move back to the Coalition, who are up one on the primary vote to 40% with Labor down three to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are steady on 9% and 5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48. Further questions relate to Iraq, with 25% thinking the 2003 invasion the right decision versus 50% for the wrong decision, 53% nominating “to support the USA” as the Howard government’s main reason for getting involved, 39% saying they would approve of US action to support the Iraq government in its current crisis with military action with 31% opposed, and 54% saying they would disapprove of Australia sending troops with 30% approving.

The poll also finds 28% felt the Greens holding the Senate balance of power was good for Australia versus 37% for bad, with 26% and 39% responses for the looming circumstance of Palmer United and micro-parties holding the balance of power. We also get the regular arsenal of “leaders attributes” questions applied to Clive Palmer and Christine Milne, with the former turning up rather poorly, with high rating for arrogant, aggressive and erratic. Christine Milne breaks 50% on “out of touch with ordinary people”, but otherwise seems to have made less of an impression. Both rate quite highly on intelligent and hard-working, but successful politicians nearly always do.

Finally, the poll finds only 19% agreeing with Tony Abbott that no election promises were broken in the budget, with 72% disagreeing.

2075
  • 451
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    I always assumed that ‘floats your boat’ was a plebeian British euphemism for “triggers an erection”, albeit used figuratively. The suggested pair with ‘blows up your skirt’ is suggestive in this respect.

  • 452
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    Does that party actually exist?

    A spokesperson from the party was quoted in the news last week or week before when Muir was reported as being too busy working his day job to meet with Abbott, so presumably the party is still going.

  • 453
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    This was the sober reporting of said weather event from news.com.au

    IT’S here. The megablizzard. Snowpocalypse now. This baby has been on the weather charts all week and it’s howling its way through the Australian Alps as you read this.

  • 454
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Sir Mad Cyril

    It has been freezing in Sydney today ahead of the cold winds.

  • 455
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    victoria:

    The whole Ashby thing has been a farce from the start. In some ways I actually feel sorry for him.

  • 456
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    In some ways I actually feel sorry for him.

    Don’t. :P

  • 457
    victoria
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    I dont. Ashby is old enough to know right from wrong.

    He could have gone through normal process to have his sexual harrassment matter dealt with. But he chose to go down this path for purely political motivesl

  • 458
    jules
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    briefly (and others) … Astrobleme has summed up pretty well regarding Anicca or impermanance.

    However here’s something.

    When you criticised this idea @ 80 ….

    Theravāda promotes the concept of Vibhajjavada (Pali), literally “Teaching of Analysis.” This doctrine says that insight must come from the aspirant’s experience, application of knowledge, and critical reasoning.

    … as manifestly inadequate, you forget the very next sentence.

    However, the scriptures of the Theravadin tradition also emphasize heeding the advice of the wise, considering such advice and evaluation of one's own experiences to be the two tests by which practices should be judged.

    I would think reflection on and reference to the canon of western thought, especially science, its currently accepted theories and methods, to be heeding the advice of the wise.

    And funnily enough evaluation of one’s experience would imply to me that a buddhist questions their experiences and reactions to those experiences. This would have to include questioning the nature of the senses. In fact if you write a report on an experiment you are specifically supposed to evaluate your own experience and do so in reference to the advise of the wise. IE You evaluate your results and do so in reference to the current science and you use scientific method.

    To me Buddhism is very similar to science, tho of course they aren’t the same thing.

    All of this serves to offer an anthropomorphic account of nature and is both inherently insufficient and internally inconsistent.

    No it doesn’t attempt to offer an anthropomorphic account of nature. It attempts to offer an anthropomorphic account of a humans response to events that happen, be they natural or man made. Although technically ascribing human qualities to humans isn’t anthropomorphism.

  • 459
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    MTBW

    It ain’t that warm in Melbourne town at the moment. Brrr.

    Although, I just looked at Canberra’s forecast. Blimey, now that’s cold.

  • 460
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    madcyril:

    OMG. :eek:

    Imagine if they had to report on cyclones or typhoons.

  • 461
    Dee
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

    CTar1

    I had the book, read it years ago, unfortunately, one of the grandsons managed to pull the book to pieces.

    Reckon Michael Caine’s ‘What’s it All About? was a far more interesting and funny read. :)

  • 462
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    victoria:

    Yeah I know, but still he was played by the Liberals for their own nefarious games, and was either too naive, too low down the food chain, or too weak to take a stand on principle.

    Now he’s likely to be saddled with debt, invariably bankrupt, and possibly hit with Slipper’s legal costs as well, although I thought I saw somewhere that the Liberal party was paying Slipper’s costs.

    There’s a part of me who feels sorry for James Ashby. I’m sure he never thought, and was never told it could end like this.

  • 463
    sohar
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    I think the Lbs will make sure Ashby is not out of pocket for his trouble. They wouldn’t want him to spill the beans to anyone.

  • 464
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    The Budget Appropriation Bill No. 1 is being voted on in the Reps now: Andrew Wilkie and Clive Palmer are voting against it.

    And Tony thinks Clive will aid him? :lol:

  • 465
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    rua

    Andrew Wilkie and Clive Palmer are voting against it.

    Hello hello this could be the beginning of many more!

  • 466
    Dee
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    Who was it that posted up coastal newspaper articles about Ashby and friends terrorising a local business?

    Whatever happened to the alleged 15 year old boyfriend and the story alleging he was picking up young gay lads and taking them to his well heeled mate?

    Was the latter all malicious rumour?

  • 467
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/utilities-wake-threat-mass-grid-defection-29631

    Leitch says it is clear that renewable energy – in the form of solar plus wind plus potentially storage has reached the point where it is now central to the thinking of most of retail and even network businesses, and it has moved from the planning department to the CEO’s office.

    Hey, Tony, Tony, Tony… Can you hear me?

  • 468
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    David Crowe ‏5m
    At least 41 votes in new Senate now against government's #FOFA changes: ALP, Greens, PUP (and AMEP), Xenophon, DLP. Won't pass.

  • 469
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    I think the Lbs will make sure Ashby is not out of pocket for his trouble.

    It would be the very least they could do.

  • 470
    BK
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    lizzie
    And neither it should!

  • 471
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

    lizzie:

    Well that’s welcome news on the FoFA amendments.

  • 472
    Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    Has anyone, anyone challenged this idiot lot on the cost of ‘direct action’ for these poor struggling families?

    Not to mention how many trees will need to be re-planted just to account for the logging Abbott is enabling in Tas.

  • 473
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

    Peter Greste gets 7 years. Tony shouldn’t have called.

  • 474
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

    At last some sense in the Ashby case reporting, thank you Guardian.

    On Monday, Justice Geoffrey Flick formally stopped proceedings, subject to three orders.

    Ashby can take the commonwealth to court over costs but cannot "undertake new proceedings" against Slipper and the awarding of costs from an earlier federal court decision must be reconsidered, Justice Flick said.

    If Ashby wants to take the Commonwealth on he can, but he loses the costs he has been awarded. Big stakes gamble with Ashby the only loser.

  • 475
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

    Hoof in mouth – again/still

    NORTH Korea has condemned Foreign Minister Julie Bishop as a US “stooge” after she criticised its leader Kim Jong-un in an interview.

    The North’s foreign ministry on Sunday described Bishop as “no more than a stooge carrying out the US hostile policy” toward it. North Korea “will never pardon but resolutely punish anyone who dares slander the dignity of its supreme leadership”,

  • 476
    poroti
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment

    Not to mention the only really suitable places for mass plantings are in our wheatbelt areas. Add to that Tones spoke about planting 20 million trees. What a pimple on the bum of an elephant that is in the great scheme of things.

  • 477
    Astrobleme
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    I left a link saying that ‘Float your Boat” was more about a lady being enthused about the prospect of some night-time activities. So the ‘boat’ was a certain part of the lady-bits , which would ‘float’ when encouraged…

  • 478
    Darn
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Peter Greste gets 7 years. Tony shouldn’t have called.

    Abbott backs another loser (although from all accounts Greste was hard done by).

  • 479
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    Could it be possible that the PM and Foreign Minister were seen as trying to change the judge’s mind? It wouldn’t go down well if others rang a judge in Oz, would it…

  • 480
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    If Ashby wants to take the Commonwealth on he can, but he loses the costs he has been awarded. Big stakes gamble with Ashby the only loser.

    Hence I feel some sympathy for him.

  • 481
    poroti
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Hey, Tony, Tony, Tony… Can you hear me?

    Your words bring to mind the opening lines of Pink Floyd’s “Comfortable Numb” .

    Hello,
    Is there anybody in there?
    Just nod if you can hear me.
    Is there anyone at home?

  • 482
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    Hence I feel some sympathy for him.

    Don’t :P

  • 483
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    Kerry voices support..gives aid ..to the Military dictatorship ion Egypt
    ____________
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/john-kerry-arrives-in-egypt-on-unannounced-visit-1403426551

    Peter Greste and family..and others…. certainly won’t get any help from the US,which is now in full support of the dictatorship in Cairo

  • 484
    sohar
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    “Wasta” (having influence or influential friends) is the way to get things done in the Arab world. It appears Tony doesn’t much wasta.

  • 485
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    If the first thought that occurs to you on learning of Peter Greste’s sentence is to take a shot at Tony Abbott, there’s probably not much going on in your head.

  • 486
    jules
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    briefly – I’d like to think rational thought is the basis for all my crapping on about buddhism, and hopefully the stuff i’ve said/typed exhibits it. (I’d also like to state again that I’m not a buddhist, for one thing I find the idea that humans can’t rely on their sense ridiculous.)

    Irrational thought, well, its less connected to reason or evidence, for example:

    Did you know that all roads are a manifestation of Cuthulu's tentacles and that all roadkill, including humans are It feeding?

    or

    IPA informed policy making, most of Andrew Bolt’s writing and my support of North Melbourne Footy Club.

    (Would you believe my spellchecker thinks there is a right and wrong way to spell cuthulu?)

  • 487
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

    Dee

    Reckon Michael Caine’s ‘What’s it All About? was a far more interesting and funny read.

    I remember reading both and the binding on both were crap.

    Very light reading but entertaining at the time. :grin:

  • 488
    Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

    Fran Barlow said: I always assumed that ‘floats your boat’ was a plebeian British euphemism for “triggers an erection”, albeit used figuratively. The suggested pair with ‘blows up your skirt’ is suggestive in this respect.

    Like “Whatever makes your Violet Crumble? Or “Whatever makes your banana split”?

    Very early blues music is where some of the best double entendres reside (some are almost single entendre!), although most are of marginal interest nowadays when compared to their original impact – in the 1920s, “race artists” had to disguise the intent of the lyrics, especially if referring to smut or mistreatment by white people. Lots of code in early blues lyrics…and a lot f it was lifted wholesale in the 60s and early 70s by the likes of Canned heat, Steve Miller and Led Zeppelin.

    “Put a little sugar in my bowl
    Put a little hotdog between my roll”

    I could go on….

  • 489
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

    William

    But I wonder how much good it ever does to try to “intercede” on behalf of an Australian on trial. Seriously. If the judge had given in he would have lost face. Negotiation should have started long before.

  • 490
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    Abbott does have a problem in how he reacts, just except the ruling? Impose sanctions on Egypt, recall our ambassador?

    He has to do something surely?

  • 491
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    I like taking shots at Abbott, so what.

  • 492
    poroti
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

    sohar

    “Wasta” (having influence or influential friends) is the way to get things done in the Arab world.

    Which world is that not the case ? Who you know rather than what you know has been a constant.

  • 493
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    William has to sustain his position as the superego to our ids. ;)

  • 494
    sohar
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    The point is that Greste should have been released soon after his arrest – he is a journalist doing his job and the new military dictatorship were put in place by the Americans (so not technically in North Korea’s league). It is a repeat of the detention of the Greenpeace activist in Russia who was the last released – lazy and incompetent diplomacy / foreign affairs from Australia.

  • 495
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    480
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    If Ashby wants to take the Commonwealth on he can, but he loses the costs he has been awarded. Big stakes gamble with Ashby the only loser.
    Hence I feel some sympathy for him.

    Mosts of the costs are in the strike out which are subject to orders of the appeal court which would not be play in any remaining argument

  • 496
    Dee
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    My sympathies lay with Greste!

  • 497
    poroti
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    After Chris Kenny’s masterpiece describing how during Abbott’s recent overseas jaunt Tony had learnt “to walk tall in a land of giants” then surely Abbott could sort out a “busted arse” country with a wave of his hand :)

  • 498
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know what it has to do with Abbott at all but the Greste sentence certainly drops Egypt down into the sewers of nations, not as bad as Israel but still a country way below average.

  • 499
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    Mosts of the costs are in the strike out which are subject to orders of the appeal court which would not be play in any remaining argument

    Read today’s rulings.

  • 500
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 23, 2014 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    Shellbell

    You may have missed it.

    On Monday, Justice Geoffrey Flick formally stopped proceedings, subject to three orders.

    Ashby can take the commonwealth to court over costs but cannot "undertake new proceedings" against Slipper and the awarding of costs from an earlier federal court decision must be reconsidered, Justice Flick said.

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