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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 26, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate points to a continuing deflation of the post-budget Labor poll blowout, and reallocates a chunk of the Labor swing from New South Wales to Victoria.

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Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.

There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.

Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1028 comments

1,028 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

  1. PeeBee

    What no comments yet?

  2. lizzie

    [grace pettigrew ‏@broomstick33 7m
    #RNBreakfast Toolman now with @senatormilne demonstrating why he is the worst interviewer in Oz, slapping serial insults on the table ..]

  3. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    On reflection I don’t think Palmer’s move carries any weight whatsoever as long as Abbott has control of the lower house and the RET, ETS and other measures are not contingent on Palmer’s carbon tax vote.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shock-and-gore-clive-palmer-shows-his-hand-20140625-3atpd.html
    Michelle Gratten picks up in the lack of conditionality too.
    https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-promises-carbon-tax-repeal-in-a-policy-that-throws-bones-in-all-directions-28475
    Lenore Taylor has her say.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/how-coal-miner-clive-turned-climate-crusader
    Peter Martin’s summary.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/both-clive-palmer-and-tony-abbott-will-get-what-they-want-20140625-3atp6.html
    We haven’t seen Kenny complain about Abbott’s avoidance of questions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/clive-palmer-does-it-his-way-as-he-pulls-rabbit-out-of-the-box-20140625-3atp7.html
    Will Obama spoil Abbott’s G20 party?
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/g20-summit-obama-expected-to-discuss-critical-issue-of-climate-change
    Peter Wicks fires back at Peter Reith over Kathy Jackson.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/desperate-a-response-to-a-column-by-peter-reith/
    “HECS” for the unemployed?
    https://theconversation.com/hecs-for-the-unemployed-a-finance-answer-to-minings-decline-28405
    The New Matilda on how Abbott is conflicted when it comes to Greste and Egypt.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/25/abbott-supports-greste-and-wholesale-slaughter-egypt

  4. BK

    Section 2 . .

    What a cock-up is the school chaplains scheme.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/school-chaplains-left-to-work-without-oversight-20140625-zslm6.html
    Sobering economic analysis of uni fee and HECS changes. Frightening actually.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/modelling-shows-uni-debts-could-take-twice-as-long-to-pay-off-20140625-3asju.html
    Further down the sewer goes Morriscum.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/changes-to-asylumseeker-repatriation-test-attacked-for-risking-lives-violating-rights-20140625-3ato4.html
    Yes, our Scott Morrison. What a charmer!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/abbott-willing-rethink-medicare-co-payment
    And Tony Wright weighs in on the subject.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/scott-morrisons-foul-bet-on-torture-20140625-zsll1.html
    Archbishop Philip Wilson lifts the lid on Pells’ “Towards Healing”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/towards-healing-did-not-have-vatican-approval
    Abbott is starting to use less emphatic words when it comes to the $7 copayment.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/abbott-willing-rethink-medicare-co-payment
    NewsPoll predicts a Napthine electoral implosion.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-leads-napthine-government-59-to-41-in-agenielsen-poll-20140625-zslo3.html
    The Guardian on our diplomatic clumsiness in the Asia-Pacific.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/25/australias-foreign-policy-clumsiness-is-losing-us-the-asia-pacific

  5. lizzie

    [jillsinger ‏@snooplady 5m
    Any chance Chris Uhlman could moderate his contempt for those who take climate change seriously @abc?]

  6. lizzie

    [Clive Palmer’s sitting pretty on a big protest vote. He understands that, and is playing it for all its worth. It doesn’t mean he’ll ever be prime minister – of course he won’t – and like Pauline Hanson his light will be snuffed out in time.

    But that won’t address the disengagement that now colours voters’ relationship with the main parties.

    Labor and Liberal MPs need to start really listening to their electorate. Campbell Newman got a sharp reminder of that in the Redcliffe by-election and I suspect he’ll get a bit of extra tuition soon in Stafford.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/blogs/that-thinking-feeling/clive-grows-with-every-smug-attack-on-him-20140625-3atir.html#ixzz35gohDYX6

  7. victoria

    Morning all

    Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.

    Victorians are not all impressed with the Napthine Govt. Support for them continues to go south

  8. lizzie

    [‏@SimonBanksHB 2m
    No wonder @tonyabbottmhr doesn’t want to mention the Budget: Sensis Business Index: small & medium business confidence lowest since Feb 2009 ]

  9. Socrates

    Morning all. I am still not quite sure how to interpret the surreal sight of Clive Palmer and Al Gore making a joint statement about emission trading. Polls say the Carbon tax now has majority support – is Clive doing this to be populist? Is he unloading his mines? Is he just stalling? I don’t know. Have a good day all.

  10. lizzie

    Thanks for the link, Victoria.
    We’re still not out of the woods, and DA might still be brought in by regulation..

  11. victoria

    lizzie

    Yes i am concerned about the direct action bypassing legislation via the parliament.

  12. victoria

    lizzie

    Jon Faine ABC774 will be discussing this matter shortly. At the moment he is talking about 457 visas again

  13. AussieAchmed

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/tribunal-backs-sale-of-nsw-power-stations/story-fnhrvfuw-1226966681074

    With the moves to renewable energy power prices will be increased even more so that the private companies can make a profit, or Govt will have to provide subsidy using taxpayer money. Either way the taxpayer/consumer pays more due to privatization. Privatisation was claimed to be the way to go in WA, to reduce costs, power prices are over 60% in a few years and still gong up.

    Privatisation is the transfer of taxpayer money to the profit margins of private companies.

  14. victoria

    Sen X being interviewed by Jon Faine

  15. victoria

    #GorePalmer “This is the worst of both worlds…this will have a chilling effect on the economy” @Nick_Xenophon #Faine #Auspol

  16. victoria

    John Connor from the Climate Authority will be interviewed shortly with Jon Faine

  17. victoria

    #Climate Institute CEO @jconnoroz says @CliveFPalmer has “evolved” on an #ETS. “It’s all clear as mud, isn’t it!” #Faine #auspol

  18. victoria

    Oh dear

    [@phbarratt: Palmer cannot protect govt agencies from effective abolition. The government can give them zero funds and zero staff—
    Peter Martin (@1petermartin) June 25, 2014]

  19. Yesiree Bob

    The Abbott Regime:

    Government Of the Hypocrite
    By the Hypocrite
    For the Hypocrite

  20. lizzie

    Simon Cullen ‏@Simon_Cullen 38s
    Clive Palmer has finished his meeting with the Prime Minister

    Thatwas quick???

  21. confessions

    Barnett’s chief spin master Dixie Marshall found to have a conflict of interest over an advertising campaign she designed and approved public funding for.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/24322625/marshalls-conflict-of-interest/

  22. Sir Mad Cyril

    Andrew Bolt wasn’t happy with Clive last night. But he seems happy enough this morning

    [
    This means we could end up with a sceptics’ paradise: no carbon tax, no prospect of emissions trading and not even Abbott’s $2.5 billion direct action schemes. That is a huge win.

    Thanks, Clive.
    ]

    I can’t see the Libs being to upset about their crappy Direct Action plan not going ahead.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/

  23. lizzie

    It would be nice if the journos, who are supposed to be more intelligent than the average bloke/sheila, would stop trying to ‘balance’ their reporting on climate change and the effects on the economy, health, the environment, etc.

  24. confessions

    Glad to see this morning with the hype of Gore appearing with Palmer having worn off people are suddenly realising it wasn’t the masterstroke they thought it was last night.

  25. confessions

    [Andrew Bolt wasn’t happy with Clive last night.]

    And the converse for those whose heads were exploding last night, waking up this morning realising that Clive has essentially done Abbott a favour.