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Federal Politics 2013-

Jun 26, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate points to a continuing deflation of the post-budget Labor poll blowout, and reallocates a chunk of the Labor swing from New South Wales to Victoria.

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Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.

There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.

Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1028 comments

1,028 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

  1. Everything

    If you want a detailed analysis of the Salvos in these offshore sights (in Nauru rather than Manus) I suggest you read “The Undesirables” by Mark Isaacs.

    He rang and was sent to Nauru almost immediately.

    No job interview.

    No preparation.

    No training.

    Not to mention it is a terrific read with the inside story on what actually goes on there.

  2. Henry

    Stephen Jones is useless on lateline.
    Show some balls man and defend the ALP record.

  3. zoidlord

    Interesting:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5653-australian-infrastructure-priorities-june-2014-201406270424

    “Maintaining a Balanced Budget &
    no increase in Public Debt” is down 6%, compared to Skill Shortage, which has risen 2%.

    And actually I agree, Skill Shortage/Jobs is a primary concern, above all else.

  4. Darren Laver

    Give how closely Psephos follows the immigration/boatism debate, I am surprise he was not aware of the Salvation Army’s ‘work’ at the offshore processing islands.

  5. frednk

    [
    Psephos
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    What were Salvation Army employees doing there?
    ]
    Your gotta be kidding.

  6. Everything

    I don’t think Psephos has any interest in the “debate”.

    He is only interested in how many votes there are for the ALP.

  7. frednk

    [
    Darren Laver
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Give how closely Psephos follows the immigration/boatism debate, I am surprise he was not aware of the Salvation Army’s ‘work’ at the offshore processing islands.
    ]
    He has to be kidding; if not it looks as if he has an opinion and he isn’t gonna let facts get in the way.

  8. Darren Laver

    It appears that the Salvation Army are one of the many who financially benefit from boats.

    There is a huge side industry associated with boat arrivals, often it is easy to follow the money in terms if identifying the most ardent boatists.

  9. Psephos

    [Give how closely Psephos follows the immigration/boatism debate, I am surprise he was not aware of the Salvation Army’s ‘work’ at the offshore processing islands.]

    I’ve never claimed to have detailed knowledge of the administration of detention centres.

  10. Psephos

    [I don’t think Psephos has any interest in the “debate”.

    He is only interested in how many votes there are for the ALP.]

    I least I don’t try to run and hide from my party’s record, as you do.

  11. Kevin Bonham

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/nil-all-on-anti-protesting.html

    Nil-All On Anti-Protesting

    An article I’ve just written criticising the new Tasmanian government’s anti-protest laws as being way too broad and clumsy. However the article also castigates the Tasmanian ALP and Greens for their extreme hypocrisy in describing the measures as draconian and fascist when some of their own “anti-discrimination amendments” from late 2012 were at least as bad and arguably worse. (Thankfully, the amendments were killed off by the Upper House.)

  12. Everything

    [I least I don’t try to run and hide from my party’s record, as you do.]

    Which party is my party?

    How do I try to run and hide from its record?

  13. caf

    lefty e:

    [Beyond that, GRNs policies feature in proportional jurisdictons in TAS, ACT when they are in govt wth the ALP. In thhe former they had Ministers until the last election.]

    In the latter the Minister for Territory and Municipal Services (Bins, Buses and Books) is currently a Green.

  14. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Guardian news ‏@guardiannews 11m

    Single & earning an average salary? Red areas show where you can’t afford to buy a house http://gu.com/p/3qem6/tw

  15. Pegasus

    [Labor has a dental plan similar to Denticare leading up to the 2007 election. The Greens consistently voted with the Liberals to block it.]
    [Completely untrue. The Greens never voted against a Denticare plan because such a plan was never presented to the Senate. The ALP government refused to introduce the plan before the abolition of the CDM Dental scheme; it is that scheme that the Senate refused to abolish. That is a completely different thing to voting against the ALP policy – in fact Greens Senators indicated they would support such a program]

    http://hpm.org/en/Surveys/CHERE_-_Australia/13/Universal_Dental_Health_Scheme.html

    Shortly before the 2007 federal election the previous Liberal Government initiated a Medical Dental Scheme, for chronically ill patients (see Health Monitor report Access to dental care in Australia: a bit more (10) 2007). The current government has unsuccessfully attempted to stop this scheme in federal parliament. The current government considers that before a national dental care system is introduced the current medical dental scheme has to disappear. But political parties such as the Greens do no support the initiative because “it would leave Australia with only the promise of a full national dental plan at some time in the future and with no publicly funded dental care at all in the meantime”. (Cresswell and Ryan 2009)

  16. kezza2

    It’s very disheartening, isn’t it, when the bloke who claims to be closest to the game can only applaud the politics rather than the policy.

    And then pretends he has absolutely no idea of the detail of the consequences of his right-wing bullshit.

    I bet you anything you like, if it was a boatload of Jewish refugees, we’d see Psephos changing his pig-headed mind in a heartbeat, and would know every facet of the journey.

    And how he, personally, had sacrificed everything to bring the plight of that boatload before the UNHCR, if not the Hague.

    Different strokes, for different folks.

  17. Everything

    I think Psephos has already said that the Jewish asylum seekers of the 50s were different as they had papers.

    All that matters is whether or not you have papers apparently.

    If you live in a country in which you can’t get them (like those who live in the swamp areas between Iraq and Iran), tough tithes!

    Those fleeing Iranian or Iraqi persecution should be dissuaded from coming to Australia because we are trying to stop them dying at sea. Whereas, those fleeing Nazi persecution are welcome wherever they flee.

  18. Rossmore

    Everythibg, Mod Lib. Fess up old chap.

    You are a Lib, in the ozzie sense. Always have been always will be..

    No shame in that from my perspective

  19. kezza2

    Einstein skedaddled in the early 30s.

    And begged Britain to make sure German Jewish scientists were saved, but they couldn’t even offer him citizenship, so he then skedaddled to the US.

    He was just an economic refugee back then. Even though Einstein could see the Nazi writing on the wall, the rest of world couldn’t.

    If that Morrison and Psephos today, Einstein would be sent back to Germany. Fucking economic reffo.

    Piss off.

  20. Everything

    I have voted for the Liberal party in the past yes.

    I have also NOT voted for the Liberal party in the past (like the last election for example!).

    So when Psephos argues that I “try to run and hide from my party’s record”, its a little silly given I have criticised BOTH major parties on this, consistently, when there were boats, and when there were no boats. I said last year that it wouldn’t matter to me whether the boats stopped or didn’t stop, I would still not support torturing women and children just because you thought it might help your primary vote.

    I don’t think Psephos likes it when I point this out!

  21. bemused

    Mad Lib@1020

    I have voted for the Liberal party in the past yes.

    A shameful admission. 😐

  22. ShowsOn

    [ I said last year that it wouldn’t matter to me whether the boats stopped or didn’t stop, I would still not support torturing women and children just because you thought it might help your primary vote.]
    Wrong again Farqtard! You support it when people drown.

    That’s a form of torture.

  23. crikey whitey

    Tonight, I was discussing refrigerant gasses and the future.

    Air Con Commercial.

    No question that the industry is totally aware of and will be expending its efforts in the way of the future.

    No new or revamped building will be commissioned unless it is green face.

    No matter what the profit takers of olden days think.

  24. absolutetwaddle

    Why are Libs (mod or otherwise) always so reticent to affirm their party affiliation? I understand there might be a sense of shame in confessing such a thing but come on. Have some pride.

    Mod Lib, you’re fooling absolutely no one.

  25. crikey whitey

    Absolutetwaddle.

    Whether or not you have noticed my posts on my own Mod Lib friend.

    Following the ill designed budget.

    I have challenged this friend. Suggesting that the party of her choice is not whatever they formerly represented.

    I fear that a schism in our friendship may have emerged.

    Too divisive, by anyone’s figuring. Especially mine.

    Thanks so much, Abbott.

  26. CTar1

    [E-voting experiments end in Norway amid security fears]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-28055678

  27. CTar1

    [Hacking trial: The Establishment is dead. Long live the Establishment

    Still unfinished, the hacking epic has added an extra layer of colour to the picture of a secretive elite forever in sync, with media, parliament, the law and the police acting in concert to bamboozle the public and shore up one another’s power. But even with the Murdochs involved, the “Establishment” looks more like a twisting hydra than a single-headed monster. The beguiling idea of a charmed circle engaged in an interlocking conspiracy hides a messier reality. ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/hacking-trial-the-establishment-is-dead-long-live-the-establishment-9569323.html