After a polling dark age for Queensland Labor going back to 2010, Newspoll's latest quarterly state voting intention result finds it taking a narrow lead, with the Liberal National Party bleeding support to Palmer United.
Newspoll’s latest quarterly reading of state voting intention in Queensland has turned in a big result, showing the Labor opposition with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred only Labor’s second lead in this series since the 2009 election, barring one aberrant result in the immediate aftermath of the floods crisis in early 2011. The primary vote results show Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government suffering an alarming eight-point slump on the primary vote to 32%. Since Labor is also off two to 34% and the Greens are steady on 8%, it may be presumed that a surge for the Palmer United Party has cost the LNP heavily. The two-party preferred result compares with a 52-48 lead to the LNP in the previous poll of January-to-March. Leadership ratings and such presumably to follow shortly. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of The Australian. Campbell Newman’s already unspectacular personal ratings have copped a further hit, his approval down three points to 33% and disapproval up three to 57%. However, Annastacia Palaszczuk has suffered an even bigger reverse from a far better base, her approval down three to 35% and disapproval up seven to 37%. Newman’s lead as preferred premier is down slightly, from 41-35 to 39-35. Hopefully I’ll find time to put up a poll trend chart tomorrow.
UPDATE 2: Here’s a poll trend chart which I’ve put much labour into to cover the gaps being left by various pollsters, most conspicuously in relation to Newspoll from which, perversely, we are still not getting a primary vote result for Palmer United, unlike the dead-in-the-water Katter’s Australian Party (represented in the chart by the dotted purple line). According to The Australian, the hike in Newspoll’s others rating from 15% to 24% owes more to independents than Palmer United. If I had hard numbers to include in my calculations which reflected that, the surge to them recorded in the chart would be somewhat more modest.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.