tip off

Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a slight improving trend for the Abbott government in recent weeks, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result has it back to its worst.

The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.

Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.

UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:

• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).

• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.

On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.

The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.

1274
  • 601
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    Z

    I suspect Corrmannn is lining up for a big job in banking when he has delivered the goods.

  • 602
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    @swamprat/601

    Yup, he is that type of person.

  • 603
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

    EFA ‏@efa_oz 16s

    EFA reviews the next round of new surveillance powers, due to be introduced to parliament this month. http://ow.ly/yCPvy

  • 604
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

    For the first time in years I accidentally watched 7:30. I am surprised ABC seems to have employed an intelligent political interviewer. It must be an accident.

  • 605
    frednk
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

    kezza2
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 6:10 pm | Permalink
    ..

    Big fucking deal.

    Paedophiles like Rolf Harris are a dime a dozen.

    Don’t feel sorry for them, or for your lost childhood, feel sorry for his victims.

    I think Fran was feeling sorry for herself not Rolf; I can see her point; I did not enjoy chucking out his work, but there is no way I will listen to it again.

    Should not make lite of the issue; but; clearly Rolf’s problem was he didn’t know what to do with his extra leg.

  • 606
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

    swamprat

    Who was it ?

  • 607
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

    Sarah ferguson

  • 608
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    WeWantPaul@598


    I’m sure this is a very witty riposte, but I’m afraid I don’t get it.

    What’s your point?


    That I didn’t think you got it and that what you had posted and reposted made no sense. And yes you confirmed for me that you didn’t get it. But keep trying!

    Nope. Still missed it. Do you think there is some meaning in your sentences? If so, what is it?

  • 609
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

    Perth, and more specifically the Bassendean council prepare to de-Rolf.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/24357273/harris-perth-plaque-could-be-removed/

    He’s pretty well deeply engrained in the Perth cultural architecture. I don’t imagine de-Rolfing will be easy.

  • 610
    Sir sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

    Australians don’t trust political parties.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/aussies-dont-trust-political-parties/story-fn3dxiwe-1226974086161

    this is Murdoch’s real agenda – to make people see government as something separate and hostile to their own interests. It is only through government that wealth and power can be more fairly distributed and the interests of the people be imposed over the mega-wealthy elites and corrupters of political processes – not what Murdoch wants at all.

  • 611
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    Should not make lite of the issue; but; clearly Rolf’s problem was he didn’t know what to do with his extra leg.

    If he’d confined his extra leg to consorting with consenting adults it wouldn’t have been a problem. That’s the issue.

  • 612
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    swamprat

    Ta.

  • 613
    frednk
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    Rudd and Gillard are the past as is what the Greens did. I’s the future that counts and it is gratifying to see Labor re-commit to an ETS……lots of full stops….

  • 614
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    UK Tories loosing position for 2015 election:
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/24354534/camerons-conservatives-in-rare-uk-poll-lead-over-labour-before-2015-vote/

    Can’t come soon enough for some.

  • 615
    sceptic
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    Coles using right wing Boston Consulting to advise on extorting suppliers… the same BSG that is behind Cameron & school privatisation ( & Abbotts dismantling of public education /health?)

    Coles admitted that it hired management consulting firm BCG to advise on supply chain changes, but denied that it hired BCG to develop strategies to boost earnings, saying the aim of ARC was to improve the availability and quality of products.
    Coles also admitted that BCG proposed that Coles ask “tail” suppliers for a “standard 1 per cent” of sales to share in the benefits from ARC.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-admits-to-threatening-suppliers-20140701-zsryh.html#ixzz36D34HvaP

  • 616
    Martin B
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Rudd didn’t have the support of key members of his government like his deputy, treasurer and finance minister to go to a DD.
    Don’t let such facts get in your way though.

    According to this article a strategy meeting of Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Arbib and Bitar in late 2009 were unanimously in favour of an early, DD, election.

  • 617
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    De-rolfing…. Pardon my cynicism.

    Abuse of children, like hairstyles, are subject to fashion.

    I doubt the worthy Council would de-Rolf if “all” he did was psychological, physical abuse of children.

    Our society is so hypocritical in its supposed concern for children.

  • 618
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Because it is worth repeating:

    610
    Sir sustainable future

    Australians don’t trust political parties.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/aussies-dont-trust-political-parties/story-fn3dxiwe-1226974086161

    this is Murdoch’s real agenda – to make people see government as something separate and hostile to their own interests. It is only through government that wealth and power can be more fairly distributed and the interests of the people be imposed over the mega-wealthy elites and corrupters of political processes – not what Murdoch wants at all.

    Not just Murdoch either, though he is appropriately emblematic of that class of ruthless sociopathic scum.

  • 619
    frednk
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    sceptic
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    One might speculate that Tony is not expecting to do a deal with Palmer, so Rupert is doing the spade work , The OZ is running a lot on the Chinese money being used for PUP ads, Fairfax / Guardian seem to be ignoring it.

    Yes it would seem fairfax/Guardian and even the ABC have finally work out the Australian is just another shit sheet dressed up as something worth reading.

  • 620
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    529
    poroti

    guytaur

    Labor failure

    {snip}

    The meeja were on board.

    The modern ‘mainstream professional’ meeja have a profound conflict between the philosophical values and social role they claim to follow in the abstract, and the increasingly concentrated and compromised corporate workplace they actually inhabit in the practice.

  • 621
    Martin B
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    On the other hand, had the Greens supported the CPRS – all sweet!

    The idea that in this scenario:
    A) Abbott would not have continued, or been successful with his ‘Great Big New Tax’ scare campaign; and
    B) none of the other self-destructive acts of the ALP government would have happened
    Is most kindly described as an assumption and more properly called wishful thinking

  • 622
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:33 pm | Permalink

    I doubt the worthy Council would de-Rolf if “all” he did was psychological, physical abuse of children.

    Actually I reckon if Rolf were found guilty of harming children in any format it’d spark calls for govt authorities to distance themselves from his legacy.

  • 623
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    Sceptic

    Not surprised that Coles bully suppliers. The culture that was introduced when Richard Goyder hired the poms is all about bullying.

    My knowledge is confined to how how they treated the staff. Never stand between one of the poms and his bonus.

  • 624
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    Jesus are people STILL trapped in a time warp circa 2009?

    Hello! It’s now 2014, some 5 fraking years later. Yes the Greens played politics with carbon pricing back then, thereby exposing themselves as hollow opportunists. But seriously, how many times does this simple point need to be made?!

  • 625
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:37 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    My point is no one has any interest in finding harm to children unless it involves sex and then it gets the full tabloid confected

    Often because it may affect sales.

  • 626
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    …confected outrage, that should have read….. On ipad….

  • 627
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    de-rolfing ?

    Rolfing is a massage therapy marketed by the Rolf Institute of Structural Integration (RISI)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolfing

  • 628
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    Lordy . Richo going the attack dog against Brandi Snaps. Brandis rabbit in headlights.

  • 629
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    swamprat:

    The tabloid media is always going to launch itself into full confected outrage mode, regardless of the issue. It’s what that medium does.

    I’m not sure however that it’s necessarily a good benchmark for assessing genuine community concern about the overall welfare of our kids.

  • 630
    Martin B
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:50 pm | Permalink

    The carbon tax was the policy of the Greens before the 2010 election on the recommendations of Ross Garneut that an ETS should have a fixed starting price, hence a tax in his own words, of a reasonable period to enable a smooth transition into an ETS.

    The Greens, to be different, to want to be heard on their be all and end all policy, to want to feel worthwhile and important, demanded that Julia introduce the carbon tax for an excessively extended period, in effect braking an election promise.

    The Garnaut Review described a transition period of “two or more years” (Table 14.3, p 358)

    It’s also interesting that Windsor and Oakeshott continue to be ignored even though they were just as influential. But of course that would not fit with the agenda.

  • 631
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    The Harris verdict serves as a really interesting lesson in this difficult area.

    For example given it took 8 days for a jury to convict it would be quite unreasonable to assume automatically that anyone who hired him or let him near children anytime in the last 2000 years knew he was an offender and were negligent in their duties to children and should be driven bankrupt for that negligence.

    Now some may have known and deliberately and wrongly covered up, or deliberately exposed him to children, some may have been negligent and rightfully be exposed to damages now. Others might hope to do better in the future.

    It isn’t the simple simon black and white some like to sprout, particularly in relation to religious organisations they have a predisposition to hate.

  • 632
    TaxiLurker
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Unfortunately the OCO2 Delta two rocket just got scrubbed at – 45 seconds due to a water release problem at the base of the launch. This project from NASA really needs to get up there to vindicate what is actually happening in the carbon cycle.
    http://www.space.com/26398-will-orbiting-carbon-observatory-magnify-energy-industrys-pr-problem-video.html

  • 633
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Have you read The Scotland of the South?

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-scotland-of-the-south/

  • 634
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    sorry. I should not pursue that issue.

  • 635
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    It isn’t the simple simon black and white some like to sprout, particularly in relation to religious organisations they have a predisposition to hate.

    Except that we KNOW religious institutions HAVE covered up abuse by clergy, and HAVE moved abusers to other parts of the country in order to hide them from their past deeds. We KNOW those same institutions NEVER called in the authorities to deal with their problem preacher or priest, thereby allowing sick people to a) get away with their abuse, and b) move on to abuse others only in a new location.

    Seems pretty black and white to me.

  • 636
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    swamprat:

    It is an emotional issue, that’s for sure.

    I tend to get similarly emotional about the abuse of animals. That really does boil my blood.

  • 637
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    It isn’t the simple simon black and white some like to sprout, particularly in relation to religious organisations they have a predisposition to hate.

    I would say in the case of the Catholic Church, the major problem is that it has an appalling juvenile. toxic and dysfunctional “authority” system.

    It has (had) no ability to respond because of vows of obedience and a system that encouraged victims to believe they were “wrong” if they challenged authority.

  • 638
    sceptic
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    Tamil asylum seekers handed over to Sri Lankan navy, according to reports

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tamil-asylum-seekers-handed-over-to-sri-lankan-navy-according-to-reports-20140701-zssnn.html#ixzz36DJNLMlA

    If true ScumMorris didn’t even apply his hideous 50% torture test!!!!

    Surly this nightmare can get challenged in the High Court

  • 639
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    sceptic@615

    Coles using right wing Boston Consulting to advise on extorting suppliers… the same BSG that is behind Cameron & school privatisation ( & Abbotts dismantling of public education /health?)

    Coles admitted that it hired management consulting firm BCG to advise on supply chain changes, but denied that it hired BCG to develop strategies to boost earnings, saying the aim of ARC was to improve the availability and quality of products.
    Coles also admitted that BCG proposed that Coles ask “tail” suppliers for a “standard 1 per cent” of sales to share in the benefits from ARC.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-admits-to-threatening-suppliers-20140701-zsryh.html#ixzz36D34HvaP

    Oh, would that be the same Boston Consulting that the Victorian State Labor Govt used to write it’s Mental Health Policy, completely bypassing its own policy committee?

    Actually, there was some justification for that as the policy committee was effectively captured by the HSU and other health unions.

    Still, it would have been nice to at least tell the policy committee they were going to do it and allow them to submit input, rather than tell them after the event.

  • 640
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    Seems pretty black and white to me

    Yeah because you are oddly deity like in your absolute perfect knowledge.

    We have had some evidence of some of the things you are so sure of, and I have no doubt there will be many many negative findings of things that were criminal, things that were negligent and breached appropriate standards of care and many many things that could have been done better.

    We have this royal commission looking at that kind of stuff for us so I don’t need to be all knowing and godlike to be sure the most intelligent and appropriate thing to do is wait for the appropriate findings and recommendations.

    but anywhooo of to yoga and in preparation my soul bows to your soul confessions ‘namaste’

  • 641
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Martin B@616


    Rudd didn’t have the support of key members of his government like his deputy, treasurer and finance minister to go to a DD.
    Don’t let such facts get in your way though.


    According to this article a strategy meeting of Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Arbib and Bitar in late 2009 were unanimously in favour of an early, DD, election.

    Thanks for pointing that out, but it is contrary to everything else I have heard/read.

    What to believe???? :eek:

  • 642
    J341983
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Everyone – Gillard, Swan etc etc were left totally dumbfounded at the fact that Rudd didn’t pull the trigger… the party structure was ready, they had advertising and office space ready. Suggesting that this wasn’t being planned for and Rudd chickened out.

  • 643
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    Please, please move the Rudd/Gillard shit to the History Channel

  • 644
    J341983
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    It wasn’t that they were whole-heartedly in favour of it – but they had agreed to it and were expecting Rudd to call it in late January/early February.

  • 645
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    swamprat

    I have now !! Ta muchly for the link. Scotland of the 18th century was an educational scientific dynamo and much of that was transported to NZ. Education was their big thing and places like Dunedin demonstrated that.

    Dunedin, Edinburgh of the south

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhVfhjK9YIs

    .
    They even got the world’s steepest street :)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-AcBQRqwlM

  • 646
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    Everyone – Gillard, Swan etc etc were left totally dumbfounded at the fact that Rudd didn’t pull the trigger… the party structure was ready, they had advertising and office space ready. Suggesting that this wasn’t being planned for and Rudd chickened out.

    Unless you are Wayne Swan I’d be wanting sources, and then I’d doubt them because everyone in the party has an axe to grind and someone telling the whole truth is about as likely as Adam condemning Israel for ruthless murder as they bomb the crap out of families who may or may not be 100% innocent because they can.

  • 647
    J341983
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    @643 – I actually agree – it’s not about the past, or a certain someone’s hate-boner for the Greens.

    The fact is, the public want to price carbon and it’s only the Coalition who are being ridiculously backwards on the whole issue.

  • 648
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    it would be quite unreasonable to assume automatically that anyone who hired him or let him near children anytime in the last 2000 (sic) years knew he was an offender and were negligent in their duties to children and should be driven bankrupt for that negligence

    Yes no liability generally attaches to an employer whose employee commits criminal acts unless the employer should have known or did know about the acts and did not take reasonable precautions.

  • 649
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    We have had some evidence of some of the things you are so sure of

    I’m ‘so sure’ of these ‘things’ (as you casually refer to the abuse of church flock – minors and others) because we’ve had:

    - acknowledgement from various religious institutions;
    - clergy and former clergy charged for abuse;
    - willingness of said religious institutions to amend their internal protocols to ameliorate against child abuse;
    - a Royal Commission which has heard the testimony of victims.

    This is not adding 2 and 2 and getting 10, but the rational conclusions of someone who isn’t conflicted by being adhered to a church on the basis of identity or faith.

  • 650
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    this is Murdoch’s real agenda – to make people see government as something separate and hostile to their own interests.

    Yup. Seems to be something that has REALLY taken hold and almost traditional in the US (look at the fwarking open carry gun nutbaggers ). I’m finding it interesting wondering on when and exactly how Abbott is going to get retired on health grounds.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...