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BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate finds the latest Newspoll result checking the Coalition's modest poll recovery, and drives Tony Abbott's personal ratings to a new low.

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The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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949 comments

949 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

  1. I thought the same thing when I heard it. But i dont see how much mileage he will get out of this comment

    [Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 1m
    Tony Abbotts “unsettled”nation comments very deliberate diversionary dog whistle .The man may not be too bright but knows what is doing here]

  2. Speaking of sentances I was sorry that Coulson only got 18 months for his despicable work for the Murdoch Empire,…and his accomplice/once lover .. that redheaded woman ,…Murdoch pride… got off

    The best thing would have been to see Murdoch in jail…now that would be great

  3. William

    The report of coulson said

    He will be taken to HM Belmarsh prison near Woolwich at lunchtime where he will be assessed before being sent to an open prison in a few days.

    The high-security prison is home to terrorists and other category A prisoners, but has a separate wing dealing with local offenders sentenced at the Old Bailey, which is where Coulson and his co-defendants will go.

    I daresay Harris will get the same treatment.

    Conjuring up a vision of Harris in queuing up for a shower in max security with mass murderers might sella few papers but I have my doubts.

  4. I don’t see any upside in Abbotts “unsettled” comments. “Scarcely settled” is even more ridiculous. Just knocks down in one go his attempts to curry favour with Aboriginal Australia which actually had some legs with his regular visits to northern places while Opposition leader.

    And most of the rest of the population are at least a bit familiar with terra nullius etc discussion over the last 22 years since Mabo decision. Makes Abbott look like a dork as usual

  5. You may be right, Ross. A journalist on Twitter says Harris will be “taken to the notorious Wandsworth prison for assessment, likely to be then moved to a low security jail in the countryside”.

  6. I think Abbott was truly trying to say…their were no humans here before ‘us’… what else does not settled mean, no humans living here etc…

  7. [You may be right, Ross. A journalist on Twitter says Harris will be “taken to the notorious Wandsworth prison for assessment, likely to be then moved to a low security jail in the countryside”.]

    They tell me it is different now but when I toured the WA prisons in the 90’s all males apparently went to Casuarina Prison on jailing and were assessed for up to a week, and if you were graded such you stayed, if you were a naughty accountant they sent you somewhere else pretty quickly.

    i don’t know how they grade pedophiles in the UK but I’m hoping for a grade that has them in a particularly low and unpleasant level of hell.

  8. Being a Liberal with ideas generally out of wack with the majority of the population on quite a few issues means having to have a different public persona to the private one – which involves plenty of jokes about most of the people who are not WASP males. Mask just fell for Abbott again.

  9. Fighting CO2 American style lol… but hey, nothing much has to make sense when your trying to save the world from co2 in 1000+ years time.

    http://www.fireapparatusmagazine.com/articles/2014/07/oklahoma-impacted-by-department-of-defense-no-longer-providing-surplus-equipment.html

    ”800 rural Oklahoma fire departments no longer have access to vehicles designed to fight wildfires previously provided by the Department of Defense.
    The sudden halt in supply is due to the enforcement of an agreement between the DOD and the Environmental Protection Agency aimed at reducing emissions.”

  10. Global warming and terrible US droughts
    ___________________
    California has has a three-year long drought which has destroyed great areas of farmland in the Central Valley between LA and San Fran,vineyards,orchards ..the lot

    Also Les Vegas is running out of water ,which it gets from a single larghe lake in the Rockies…which is drying up,and all across the US West forests and farmland are going

    No wonder Obama is taking up this matter…though Abbott doesn’t want is discussed at the G2o in Nov

  11. Also:
    http://gizmodo.com/sea-level-rise-is-forcing-this-island-nation-to-relocat-1599405639

    “The nation of Kiribati is a string of 30 or so tiny islands in the Pacific, each just a few feet above the sea. Thanks to climate change and rising seas, it’s officially screwed. So Kiribati’s government has come up with a drastic and unprecedented decision: buy 5,460 acres of land that is 1,200 miles away in a whole other country. ”

    “Kiribati won’t be alone is seeking to relocate its population. Other low-lying island nations like the Maldives, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands are feeling the outsized impacts of climate change. “Entire populations of affected states could become stateless,” says a UN report. Yup, climate change couldn’t care less about national boundaries.”

  12. [zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 4, 2014 at 11:22 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/912

    Ah yes, I’m guessing you rather have those departments cut down in staff to decrease costs?]

    They are reducing emissions not costs.

  13. HTF did Pyne say this with a straight face?

    Education Minister Christopher Pyne said he hoped Senator Lambie reflected on the respect and mutual support that’s expected of politicians when she entered the Senate on Monday.

    ”I think Jacqui Lambie and all of us in Canberra should treat each other with the respect that all colleagues deserve,” he told the Nine Network.

  14. Tony Wright has helpfully explained Abbott’s “scarcely settled” statement. Wright believes the PM is legally correct but he mistakenly said it backwards so it came out wrong. He did not mean what he said because that meaning is obviously absurd, therefore he did not say it. Just read TA backwards and it all makes sense.

    Oh and everyone else is wrong because we are assuming what TA made it possible for us to assume. Silly us.

    In short, the indigenous inhabitants of Australia were here before the place became ”a settled colony”, and thus didn’t lose their rights over land.
    That makes Abbott’s comment factually correct in law.
    His problem is that he put it arse-about, speaking of pre-settlement Australia as ”unsettled”.
    In doing so, he made it possible for his critics to assume he meant uninhabitated. Which would be absurd…if he’d said it or meant it, which he clearly didn’t.
    The Prime Minister is fortunate only that he didn’t use the word conquered.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-would-have-been-wise-to-avoid-settlement-question-20140704-3bcu4.html#ixzz36Uv1xj3s

  15. @Phil/926

    Tony Wright should remember it was John Howard who tried to water down indigenous inhabitants rights in this country, during the dispute with the farmers.

  16. Zooid lord,
    Yes Howard, Fischer, the lot of them. My problem is with Wright’s article as it just seems like gibberish. Maybe it’s penetrating satire but I couldn’t follow it.

  17. Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Graeme Innes ‏@Graemeinnes 7h

    About to leave my office for the last time. So long and thanks for all the fish.

  18. I’m with Phil. Wright’s article makes no sense to me. “A settled colony” comes about when the Europeans arrive, but that has no bearing on whether there were non-colonial indigenous “settlements” before that arrival.

    If Australia is not a clear enough example, look at America. Indigenous settlements, overtaken by a colonial power with its own settlments.

  19. Carlton uses one of my favourite expressions: “It was bank robbery, with the bank doing the robbing.”

    This has for a long time been the most common form of bank robbery and the proceeds of crime that the banks have enjoyed have far exceeded any pittance stolen from them.

  20. Does anyone remember that BBC program which showed Rolf Harris painting the Queen? She was posing for it and she seemed really cranky. He tried small talk with Her Maj and she was quite short with him. He said something about patting the corgis and she “No, they will bite.”
    She didn’t seem to like him one little bit.

  21. PB

    [Which is the worst sort of person
    a. A person who is stupid but doesn’t know it
    b. A person who is stupid and knows it
    c. A person who is stupid and likes to show their stupidity as often as they can
    d. A person who pretends to be stupid and shows this pretend stupidity at every opportunity]

    Reminds me of this

    When you’re dead, you don’t know it; the only people to suffer are those around you.

    It’s the same when you are stupid.

  22. There’s something really… unpleasant about people who salivate at the thought of prisoners – elderly pedophiles or otherwise – getting beaten, raped or tortured in prison. Confinement by the state is the punishment here, prisoner-on-prisoner savagery should not be applauded or expected.

    Read the following report. It’s slightly out of date (published 2001) but is simply harrowing in every way. I hope prisons here never turn into the charnel houses of the USA.

    http://m.hrw.org/reports/2001/prison/report.html

  23. [ AFL sinks to a new low allowing this man into the Norths dressing room

    http://instagram.com/p/qB70PpL52X/ ]

    Before I clicked that link, I actually thought it was gonna be someone from Cronulla. Right suburb, wrong guy.

    If you had to pick one of Todd Carney or Scott Morrison to spend an hour drinking with at your local, who would you pick?

  24. I wouldn’t give the time of day to Morrison. I’d cross the road and wave my genitals in his general direction. Todd? I’d worry if he said it was his shout.

  25. BK. I can’t agree with you about Cowdery’s article being “thoughtful”. I see it as an attempt at face saving.

    This is the guy who was heavily critical of the A-G for bowing to media pressure and mounting an appeal against the sentence and was adamant that the trial judge was best placed to make the call and his view should not be overturned. (See the article by Cowdery I linked to a few pages back).

    Now Cowdery is arguing that the appeal result proves the system works and the media should have stayed out of it.

    The only consistent element is that Cowdery hates the idea of the media commenting on the work of courts and lawyers: ie, he – like most of his profession – are much more comfortable hiding away from public attention in their silly drag.

    I agree with him that mandatory sentencing is a bad idea. But mandatory sentencing policies are the direct consequence of pissweak sentences like the one given initially in this case.

    As various governments have shown us, it’s always more comfortable to blame the media for your own stuff-ups.

  26. rocket_
    Posted Friday, July 4, 2014 at 11:24 pm | PERMALINK
    AFL sinks to a new low allowing this man into the Norths dressing room

    http://instagram.com/p/qB70PpL52X/

    916
    guytaur

    =========================================================

    will you put this on twitter please,, i intend phoning the club on monday hope many other do do to

  27. Missus got a call from a poller (she can’t remember which one) on Friday night so I imagine there will be a new one out soon.