A new Queensland state poll from ReachTEL is similar to this week’s Newspoll, apart from the fact the Palmer United vote is recorded.
A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 1900 respondents, “Conducted for The Sunday Mail and Channel 7”, has the Liberal National Party with a primary vote lead of 38.7% to 34.4%, which narrows to 51-49 on two-party preferred. The Palmer United vote continues to surge, out in this poll to 15.4%. A two-party preferred figure is provided, but in a situation where a new party has come along and seized nearly one vote in six, this is a highly speculative exercise. The result given is 51-49 in favour of the LNP, perhaps at the generous end of what might be expected for Labor from the primary vote numbers provided. The Sunday Mail report says Campbell Newman has a combined poor and very poor rating of 53.1%, but no other leadership numbers are provided (and also no primary vote for the Greens).
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.
The Poll Bludger, who is known to his mother as William Bowe, can be contacted at: pollbludger-at-bigpond.com.
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