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Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll's latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott's approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

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It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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792 comments

792 thoughts on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

  1. BK

    Cameron was saying the extremists are in control of the government and the Nats have sold out.

  2. daretotread

    Look if the current polling is true AND the WA senate election holds, the Green vote is already pushing 17% in some states.

    My feeling is that Greens vote will steadily rise as a goodly share of the under 30s stick to their green votes, even as they grow older.

    Has anyone notices the REMARKABLE Male female differences. the coalition and Green vote adds to 50% for both but a full 5% of women vote green rather than coalition. That is a “helluvalot” of Drs Wives.

  3. Benji

    Essential primaries:

    ALP 40% (+2)
    LNP 39%(-1)
    Greens 9% (0)
    PUP 6% (0)

  4. Libertarian Unionist

    ooh, an ALP primary starting with a “4”.

    Rare birds, those ones.

  5. daretotread

    Looking at the Morgan cumulative figures again it seems that:

    1. Labor needs to target MALES. There is a 5% difference in greens plus ALP

    2. Labor needs to target Queensland – try to get to even there

  6. BK

    Michaelia Cash is giving a stunning bogan queen performance at Senate QT.

  7. gloryconsequence

    When was the last Essential with a 40 ALP primary? That’s significant.

  8. mikehilliard

    Keane & Crikey

    […nearly a fifth of voters continue to want even more draconian measures adopted against asylum seekers]

    I guess that means sinking them. So much hate is hard to understand.

  9. Tom Hawkins

    Essential is indication enough to me that Shorten is playing the game correctly.

  10. sohar

    Essential is weird, as usual; it is hard to believe the combined Lib/Lab vote is 79%. While Greens and PUP might be close enough, I think others is higher than 6%.

  11. daretotread

    MikeH

    Hate and tribalism are deep in the human psyche. Anyone who thinks that Germany between the wars could not happen here is delusional. The best we can do is avoid fanning the flames and lead by example to less xenophobia.

  12. victoria

    Tom Hawkins

    Indeed

  13. fredex

    The Greens vote is increasing from the election in every category in Newspoll quarterly.

    18-34 … + 5.4%
    34-49…. + 3%
    50+ ….. + 1 -> 2%
    Non-capitals …. + 3-> 4%
    5 Capitals …….. + 3%

    As is the ALP.
    But the total Greens increase is greater than the total ALP increase, 2.7% compared to 3.3%.

    Any optimism about the ALP increasing its vote by the next election has to, going on the poll numbers, include optimism for the Greens doing equally as well or even marginally better.

    Basically the Greens vote is outperforming, slightly, the ALP vote.
    And both are leaving the COALition in their dust.
    So far.

    And that is good for Oz.

  14. guytaur

    2.24pm AEST
    We’re now hearing the first news from the court proceedings trickle through. There are between 21 and 29 minors on board, with the youngest just two years old. Only eight minors are involved in the current action.

  15. fredex

    Oops I forget the gender split.
    Greens are up, since the election, by 2.8% [male] and 3.9% [fem].

  16. guytaur

    “@annajhenderson: Greens @SenatorSurfer asks whether Former CBA CEO David Murray has a conflict in reviewing calls for Royal Commission into the bank #auspol”

  17. guytaur

    “@oliverlaughland: Gleeson, acting for Morrison, says vessel was intercepted in Aus contiguous zone and all have been moved to high seas #highcourt153”

    So they made it to Australia then

  18. zoomster

    An analysis of Newspoll polls going back to the election in 2010 demonstrates why I don’t think present Green polling will be replicated at the next election.

    In 2010, the Greens garnered 11.8% of the votes.

    They had an immediate post election bounce in Newspoll, consistently scoring 14% for the rest of 2010 and peaking at 15% in October 2011.

    Throughout 2012, they scored 11-12%, and 9-11% in 2013, with 9% as their final pre election polling figure.

    At the actual election, their vote was 8.7%.

    So the Greens consistently polled higher than their final vote, and the closer they got to an election – and a real decision – the more their share of the vote declined.

    Put me in a time machine, and in September 2011, two years’ out from the election, I’m looking at a Greens poll of 15% (almost 4% more than their present polling).

    We’re (probably) slightly more than two years out from an election now. To predict that it’s unlikely the Greens will get 11% of the vote at the next election doesn’t seem a bad call to me.

    Indeed, should the pattern of the last few years be replicated, they’ll be lucky to get the same vote they got in 2013.

  19. guytaur

    2.45pm AEST
    Merkel is relying on the 2010 case M61/2010 v Commonwealth to support his submissions on the issues surrounding procedural fairness for asylum seekers. Here’s the judgment summary (which is not the judge’s reasons) from that earlier case, which related to the assessment processes for asylum seekers on Christmas Island:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/asylum-seeker-high-court-challenge-against-handover-to-sri-lanka-live#start-of-comments

  20. Roger Miller

    Greens are up so high in WA because state Labor has been hopeless. First losing to a clearly dysfunctional coalition in the state election, then putting up a terrible candidate at the top of the ticket for the senate rerun, against a really good campaign from Senator Ludlam.

  21. guytaur

    Senator Wong just showed again she is smarter than Senator Abetz responding to Senator Lambi

  22. zoomster

    …and the same pattern is obvious in the lead up to 2010, with the Greens polling 12-14% in the lead up to the election, with a final result of 11.8%.

    Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.

  23. guytaur

    “@KarenMMiddleton: The Govt, via legal reps in the #highcourt153 case, has promised to give 72hrs notice of handing asylum seekers to Sri Lankan authorities”

  24. guytaur

    “@gabriellechan: The High Court’s Justice Crennan refers the Tamil asylum seeker case to the full court. #politicslive http://t.co/fbyN1YfnV8 via @guardian”

  25. Jackol

    I very much doubt the Greens will do worse than they did in 2013 – at the 2013 election the Greens were largely seen as being ‘in government’ with the very unpopular (at the time) ALP, and I imagine the Greens vote was (additionally) depressed as a result.

    Not to mention that a lot of the public seemed determined to vote the ALP out, and that kind of mood tends to translate (as zoomster has argued before) as pushing people to the opposite extreme rather than letting people stop off in minor party half-way houses or protest parties.

    The next election is unlikely to see a massive vote of confidence in the ALP given the public would be voting out a first term government – the LNP may well lose the next election, but I suspect it’s likely to be a very “others” friendly election regardless of what happens given that the LNP are self destructing and I don’t think enough time has passed for the voters to feel entirely confident in the ALP leadership again.

    But I do agree that the Greens have serially underperformed at elections compared with polling beforehand (the WA Senate re-run perhaps being a notable exception, but everything about that election was exceptional).

  26. Raaraa

    759

    [I guess that means sinking them. So much hate is hard to understand.]

    That explains why they’re so eager to get those F35 JSFs.

  27. Astrobleme

    Zoomster

    That’s not really a theory that can be used to project forward. It’s simply an observation that the Greens vote changed in relation to what was happening.

  28. Astrobleme

    Zoomster

    “Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.”

    MoE?

  29. Bushfire Bill

    Talking head #1 on ABC-24 says social media is the best way to follow the High Court Hearing.

    Talking Head #2 say the Court has adjourned for a “wee” break.

    Social media says the case has been forwarded to the Full Court.

    Go figure.

  30. Astrobleme

    Zoomster

    “Whether it’s due to sample size or last minute changes of mind, Greens do not seem to perform as well at elections as their polling in the lead up says they will.”

    This is also a different theory to the first one. You were saying that the Greens would do worse than they did in 2013…

  31. zoomster

    Astrobleme

    I would have thought that the hypothesis – the Green share of the vote declines the closer one gets to an election – is pretty sound, given the results in the lead up to the last two elections.

    Of course, the test of a theory is whether or not it can be used to predict future events, so we’ll wait and see…

  32. poroti

    mikehilliard

    Nothing new there .Where I was working in the very early 2000’s they had the bloody local red neck radio on permanently. Calls suggesting the navy should blow a couple of AS boats out of the water so as to stop the boats was on “high rotation”. The shock jocks were all “I can understand how you feel” not condoning but wink wink.

  33. zoomster

    Astro, it isn’t a theory at all. It’s an observation. You can, of course, build on observations to arrive at theories…

  34. guytaur

    zoomster

    If there is a difference in polling aand an election result it means the polling is wrong

  35. zoomster

    Astro

    ‘sample size’ is part of MOE – that is, a smaller sample size leads to larger MOEs.

  36. citizen

    [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 2:58 pm | PERMALINK
    “@gabriellechan: The High Court’s Justice Crennan refers the Tamil asylum seeker case to the full court. #politicslive http://t.co/fbyN1YfnV8 via @guardian” ]

    So the 153 asylum seekers are on an Australian government vessel somewhere, have not yet been been given to the Sri Lankan navy and are enjoying a diet of vegemite sandwiches for the foreseeable future.

    Is Morrison obliged to let their legal representatives contact them?

  37. daretotread

    Greens do not do as well (usually) as polling predicts because:

    1. Once at the polling booth people revert to form ie chickening out on a vote change and voting the way they always have

    2. Because they are often younger I assume quite a number fail to turn up or actually are not properly enrolled

    3. Influence of booth workers ie more ALP and LNP

    4. Possibly a polling artefact ie proportionally more greens are contacted by phone

    However over time these factors will fade as “green” voting becomes the norm for many.

  38. CTar1

    [Kate McCann’s son asked her about her role in the disappearance of her daughter Madeleine in 2007, telling her: “Mr Amaral said you hid Madeleine”.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/kate-mccann-told-by-her-son-mr-amaral-said-you-hid-madeleine-9590763.html

    I’m finding it harder to believe that they don’t know somewhat more than they are telling.

    Amanda Knox same.