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Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

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  • 101
    p m z
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    I thought the Daily Mirror was the Pro-Labour rag?

  • 102
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    dtt

    I’d say not being the Coalition and attacking the ‘reforms’ to Universities and Youth Allowance will go a long way.

    Usually the problem with attracting the votes of young people is simply that very little governments do impact on them – for example, they don’t use hospitals, they’ve left school, they don’t use childcare, etc etc. (I sailed through Uni knowing nothing about politics – had no idea who John Cain was, for example…)

    For the first time in a long time, a government is hurting young people in quite dramatic ways.

    Some of them won’t even know it yet — but they will by the next election.

  • 103
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    Leroy Lynch

    The Daily Mail has not improved since at least 1934.

    Hurrah For The Blackshirts

    Because Fascism comes from Italy, short sighted people in this country think they show a sturdy national spirit by deriding it.

    If their ancestors had been equally stupid......

    http://www.indymedia.org.uk/images/2013/04/508360.jpg

  • 104
    daretotread
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    Zoomster

    In 2013, Katter still has some resonance in Qld but the evidence seems to be that it has all swung to PUP and indeed there is talk of combining. I think you can pretty much assume almost all the Qld others are now in the PUP fold

  • 105
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    Cairo: Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi says he wishes three al-Jazeera journalists, including Australian Peter Greste, had not been put on trial, conceding the case has been damaging.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/egypts-president-wishes-peter-greste-aljazeera-reporters-had-not-been-tried-20140707-zsyct.html#ixzz36kImpTKi

    … and he might have been able to quietly have them deported except for certain loudmouthed Prime and Foreign ministers lecturing him on how democracy is supposed to work, and making it known they were going for a “Ramadan Surprise”.

    Those sand-niggers… they’re really very simple people, with all those quaint religious customs and all. They had a chance to release Greste and his colleagues at the start of Ramadan, and blew it.

    Silly them.

  • 106
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    I thought the Daily Mirror was the Pro-Labour rag?

    It is.

    On 4 May 2010, the newspaper printed a picture of Conservative Leader David Cameron with a giant red cross through his face. The headline read "How to stop him" in reference to the general election two days later, thus confirming the Daily Mirror's Labour allegiance.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Mirror

  • 107
    daretotread
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    Zoomster

    I would have expected that some of the youth disaffection would show in the last quarter figures – it did but it seemed to move to the greens.

    You point does seem valin for the 35+ group

  • 108
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, a typo in the above, should read “Don’t forget that in the UK there is also the pro-Labour Daily MIRROR which is also a big seller”

  • 109
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    I am not a “hater” by nature but I absolutely hate Scott Morrison.

    Just on World at Noon that the returned asylum seekers were asked four questions each by radio phone and on that basis they will be returned to Sri Lanka.

    They found one who had a case but he “decided” to return with the others.

    Poor fellow my country!

  • 110
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    One of the Asylum seekers had a dog on board and will return with his dog.

    Ray Hadley thought that was hysterically funny.

  • 111
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    dtt

    I don’t like to assume anything when it comes to polling.

    Unless we have firm figures, it’s safer to assume that the pattern established at the last election holds true, and that Clive is polling around 13-14% in Queensland – which is a decent enough result for a minor party, I’m not denying it.

    I note Bludgertrack has Palmer on 6.6 nationally, a gain of 1.1% since the election.

  • 112
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    “@political_alert: Greens Senator @sarahinthesen8 will hold a press conference here in Canberra at 1.20pm to discuss Sri Lankan asylum seekers #auspol”

  • 113
    daretotread
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    MTBW

    I share your pain.

    What the bloody F**K is Labor doing or saying.

    Time to stand up boys and girls. I do not want to be labelled as a genocidal racist.

    “Cry my beloved country”

    When will we find our sports teams are boycotted. Matter of time I would say. I expect Australian cricketers will NOT be welcome in Tamil Nadu. Do not travel to Chennai.

    The ultimate irony will be when South Africa boycotts Australia for human rights abuses.

  • 114
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    Not sure how significant it is in the scheme of things, but interesting that Labor has gained just over 1% in the capitals but over 3 in the non capitals.

  • 115
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    @latikambourke: Sen. Ricky Muir begins outlining policy positions and they don’t look good for PM Abbott’s budget: http://t.co/lxiO2IWrMt @abcnews

  • 116
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

    dtt

    as I’ve said, most young people don’t know what’s going on in politics – and, given that little of the government’s agenda is yet in place, few of them will have suffered any negative impacts as yet.

    When/if the government nasties are in place, that’s when I’d expect to see shifts in the youth vote.

  • 117
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    “@SabraLane: Clive Palmer gives a short, ten minute speech at #NPC and says PUP will try stop the abolition of school kids bonus. (Labor also opposed.)”

  • 118
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

    It looks to me as if Victorians are very, very angry with Abbott.

    Abbott has never been popular in Victoria and never will – methinks that the Victorian vote is reverting to type – the last election was largely driven by a desire to get rid of the rabble that the ALP had become and nothing more. The continuing state government shenanigans have not helped the Lib cause either.

  • 119
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

    mtbw

    Labor is stuck – Rudd introduced the Manus/Nauru changes (imposed without consultation), the party went to the last election supporting Manus/Nauru, and it’s hard for them to start condemning the policy now without dumping on Rudd.

    The bits that aren’t Manus/Nauru, they’ve been reasonably vocal about.

  • 120
    daretotread
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    Zoomster

    It seems fairly obvious that PUP is filling the role of a place for disaffected voters to park their vote. I think their vote must be considered highly volatile and would shift to a rethink LNP (eg Turnbull) or even back to Abbott if the economy picks up and things seem stable.

    However at this point in time they seem to indicate there is a big shift from the LNP especially in Qld and WA. Now as these are generally Coalition states it is reasonable to assume that this big shift to PUP is mostly coalition conservatives very dissatisfied with Abbott.

    What is of more concern to Labor is that of the 9% shift from the LNP in Qld just 1% has gone to Labor, the balance shared between Greens and others. In WA it is worse. Labor has lost ground to the greens and got NONE of the massive 11% swing from the LNP.

  • 121
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Daily Mail Song

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI

  • 122
    daretotread
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Zoomster

    Reasonably vocal is NOT good enough on this transfer to Sri Lanka.

    NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

    It is a case for passion and genuine anger not mealy mouth tut tut.

  • 123
    Jimmyhaz
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

    Speaking as someone in the 20-25 age bracket, I can guarantee that the thing to do is not be a slightly less shit version of the coalition. Labor’s continuous lurch to the right is giving the coalition undeserved legitimacy, as well as disaffecting the moderates, which this age group is comprised mainly of. The best movement for labor would be to annihilate the coalitions university deregulation model, as well as target the GP fee. So far I haven’t really seen any attempt to do either.

  • 124
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

    I think the government will lose this first attempt at repeal. They are doing as a bundle and PUP will vote to block repeal of the RET CEFC etc.

    So the Committee Stage will go on.

  • 125
    Player One
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    Labor is stuck – Rudd introduced the Manus/Nauru changes (imposed without consultation), the party went to the last election supporting Manus/Nauru, and it’s hard for them to start condemning the policy now without dumping on Rudd.

    The bits that aren’t Manus/Nauru, they’ve been reasonably vocal about.

    All the ALP have to do is say they will continue to support a regional solution but completely oppose refoulement.

  • 126
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:55 pm | Permalink

    dtt

    I don’t see why Labor would be particularly concerned that they’re not doing as well in Queensland and WA, given that they’d still win in a canter (on present figures) without them and that – as you point out – historically they haven’t done well in these states.

  • 127
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    If the Sri Lankan boat people were economic refugees they should go through normal channels for economic migrants.

    Now, I know “normal channels” are biased against them, or may not even available to some of them, but then again there are plenty of Sri Lankans who come here through those channels and get on fine, make a contribution etc.

    There is plenty of room for reform of those “nornal channels”, but they do exist in one form or another. We can’t take everyone who wants to come here just because they want a better way of life. Expanding that program is a call for the government of the day to make.

    As to how they were intercepted, we simply don’t know. We don’t know whether they were intercepted on the high seas, or in Australian waters.

    If on the high seas then it may amount to a form of state piracy. If not, then we are entitled to ask whether they were properly vetted.

    In the manner of their handling and processing there is a fertile field for criticism of the government, without the need to assume that simply everyone who wants to come here is a refugee.

    Public opinion, whether you like it or not, is against an open-slather immigration-by-stealth, or immigration-by-loophole process. There is a lot of racism and bigotry involved, but also a considerable amount of common sense.

    We *do* have a right to decide who comes here under normal processes, and we *do* have an obligation to treat those who use alternative means strictly according to the law.

    We also have a right to expel those who are trying to game the system by appearing to be refugees – i.e. coming via the traditional refugee route of taking a leaky boat – but not actually qualifying as such.

    Once most of the refugees who came here by boat may have been bona fide, but that does not mean that *all* are, especially nowadays when people smuggling is much more sophisticated, what with GPS and sat phones to aid them.

    It’s a sorry business, and at times may seem cruel (and at other times is cruel). But if we just open our borders, assuming anyone who takes the “boat person” path is automatically in dire threat from persecution and torture etc., then we are mugs.

    Coming here by boat is the only option open to most, as you can’t even get on a plane in a foreign country without a valid visa. The only way to get around this is to arrive unannounced. Coming by boat, in and of itself, does not qualify a person as a refugee. In its widest interpretation all it means is that they just didn’t get a valid visa, and can’t afford, or manage, to get one.

    I’m tempted to just shout at Morrison too. Much of what he does is awful. He seems like a cruel and judgemental person who enjoys his work. But when I consider the problem dispassionately, there have to be some rules.

    Whether Morrison is over-zealous is a perfectly legitimate question to ask (especially given his reluctance to provide any information). Criticise him for that. Criticise the process. Criticise the legality, or the secrecy… all of which we know little about.

    But don’t get trapped by criticising him for preventing people who are purely economic refugees from coming here after gaming the system.

  • 128
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    Well, we’re getting closer:

    April 4th, 1984. Last night to the flicks. All war films. One very good one of a ship full of refugees being bombed somewhere in the Mediterranean. Audience much amused by shots of a great huge fat man trying to swim away with a helicopter after him, first you saw him wallowing along in the water like a porpoise, then you saw him through the helicopters gunsights, then he was full of holes and the sea round him turned pink and he sank as suddenly as though the holes had let in the water, audience shouting with laughter when he sank. then you saw a lifeboat full of children with a helicopter hovering over it. there was a middle-aged woman might have been a jewess sitting up in the bow with a little boy about three years old in her arms. little boy screaming with fright and hiding his head between her breasts as if he was trying to burrow right into her and the woman putting her arms round him and comforting him although she was blue with fright herself, all the time covering him up as much as possible as if she thought her arms could keep the bullets off him. then the helicopter planted a 20 kilo bomb in among them terrific flash and the boat went all to matchwood. then there was a wonderful shot of a child’s arm going up up up right up into the air a helicopter with a camera in its nose must have followed it up and there was a lot of applause from the party seats but a woman down in the prole part of the house suddenly started kicking up a fuss and shouting they didn’t oughter of showed it not in front of kids they didn’t it ain’t right not in front of kids it ain’t until the police turned her turned her out i dont suppose anything happened to her nobody cares what the proles say typical prole reaction they never-

    - George Orwell, 1984

  • 129
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    But don’t get trapped by criticising him for preventing people who are purely economic refugees from coming here after gaming the system.

    What evidence do you have that any of these people are “purely economic refugees”?

    You sound tainted by the fact that Labor has been complicit in establishing this inhumane approach.

  • 130
    rummel
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

    BB @127

    Very well said. I agree with you 100%

  • 131
    Wakefield
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    Discussion about Greens vote in SA – Newspoll report shows it as 8% which is about usual. Others 18% includes a lot for Xenophon and some for PUP.

  • 132
    sohar
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    SHY is from SA, isn’t she? Could explain the relatively poor Green vote in that state.

  • 133
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

    Meanwhile in a country with some semblence of media diversity where rationality is actually accorded some weight, the BBC has ordered its programs to stop presenting the lies of climate change deniers as “balance”:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10944629/BBC-staff-told-to-stop-inviting-cranks-on-to-science-programmes.html

  • 134
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

    That was dreadful mistake for WA Head Office to make.

    We need to re frame the voting to expel this type of candidate.

    For them it is all about the gravy train and a sense of entitlement.

    Except Adam tells us Bullock is the heart and soul of the party who we should just embrace. Neither my arms nor my heart are that encompassing.

  • 135
    victoria
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    Summary of RC hearing this morning

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/private-super-data-went-to-union-20140707-3bhu6.html

  • 136
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    not defending the preselection of the likes of Bullock, but when people argue that Labor should return to its base, then that’s what they’re talking about.

  • 137
    victoria
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

    Goodness me!

    A man has been stabbed to death inside the Westfield shopping centre at Parramatta in Sydney's west.

    Emergency crews were called to the cosmetics section in the Myer store at 10.30am on Monday following reports of an attack.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/person-stabbed-at-myer-cosmetics-department-in-westfield-parramatta-20140707-zsynt.html

  • 138
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

    What evidence do you have that any of these people are “purely economic refugees”?

    You sound tainted by the fact that Labor has been complicit in establishing this inhumane approach.

    It’s a fair point to make, and I expected it, but it’s not valid in my case.

    I wrote above that criticism of the process should be available to us and should be prosecuted with vigour. Morrison, in keeping almost everything secret, opens himself up for this. Process should be, as far as possible and practicable, transparent.

    Given a fair process (and this IS one of the properly contentious issues in the debate), then we need to be able to separate our feelings for poor people from poor countries who want to come here to get a better way of life, and people who are genuine refugees.

    We simply can’t take all the economic refugees who come here. We need a process to sift them out. We have such a process. Many hundreds of thousands of people use it. They provide documentation, make applications, wait sometimes for years and a certain amount succeed.

    My argument is that simply assuming that anyone who comes here by boat is a genuine refugee is a mistake.

    Boats are the only way to get here if you can’t get a visa. It’s really that simple. There is nothing mystical, romantic or particularly tragic about coming here by boat. It is simply the only alternative for many. We are an island continent. If you can’t fly here with a visa, and you can’t swim here, you have to come by boat. The people smugglers know this full well, and exploit it.

    Criticise the process. Criticise the cruelty with which it is applied.

    But I’m not prepared to criticise the concept of regulating who comes here as a citizen. We are perfectly entitled to do make that decision. Conflating arrival by boat with refugee status is not sensible, in my opinion.

    It has little to do with my being a Labor supporter. IT has everything to do with my concern that if we make things too easy, then hundreds of thousands, or even millions may start coming here. There needs to be a balance between that perfectly proper right we enjoy and our international and humanitarian obligations.

    I don’t know whether the processes are being properly applied. That’s a fair criticism of Morrison. As is the secrecy. As is the fact that I just don’t like the bastard.

    But I simply can’t bring myself to agree that anyone who comes here by boat is automatically a refugee, should be absorbed into society and, in time, should achieve citizenship as a some kind of natural right, simply because they used the only possible method available to them to get to our borders.

  • 139
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

    BB @127

    Very well said. I agree with you 100%

    Yeah well don’t take any comfort from that Rummell. I still think you’re an idiot.

  • 140
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

    1st Senate division

  • 141
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    PUP looks like voting against this repeal

  • 142
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    not defending the preselection of the likes of Bullock, but when people argue that Labor should return to its base, then that’s what they’re talking about.

    Yeah I’m with you, i don’t rate ‘base’ as an idea.

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    That is PUP has voted against the Guillotine

  • 144
    Raaraa
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    81

    The left-leaning Labor voting friend I know from SA doesn’t really like SH-Y (I don’t know too many people in SA). That’s not a conclusive enough evidence, but perhaps SH-Y doesn’t have as much impact there as compared to Ludlum in WA and Di Natale in Victoria.

  • 145
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    I feel somewhat abashed saying it, but Palmer’s ability to cut through and be frank is extremely refreshing.

    He doesn’t give a damn who he slags off, and some of the people he’s slagging deserve every syllable of it.

    The Libs made a big mistake taking his money and then getting rid of him. Huge error.

  • 146
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    Political hell hath no fury like a major donor scorned.

  • 147
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    We simply can’t take all the economic refugees who come here.

    We couldn’t take all the genuine refugees let alone the economic ones as well.

  • 148
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Abetz defeated now trying again

  • 149
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: The Govt has suffered its first loss in the new Senate. Senators have voted against an attempt to bring on debate for carbon tax repeal leg”

  • 150
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    HaHa SHY presser likening Morrison to Voldemort

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