tip off

BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

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  • 51
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    My aggregate is also 53.2 to ALP, resetting to 53.3 if no new polls by midnight tomorrow.

  • 52
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: #breaking Clive Palmer says the carbon tax repeal probably won’t pass the Senate today”

  • 53
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    “@PaulBongiorno: Palmer senators may not scrap carbon tax today. A govt double cross they say.”

  • 54
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Oopsy i am hearing on ABC774 that Clive palmer says carbon tax repeal will not pass through the senate

  • 55
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Guytaur

    Sort of snap!

  • 56
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Melbourne ABC radio just reporting that Clive has announced that he does not think the Carbon Tax will be repealed today.

    More fun, more games.

  • 57
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/08/brandon-smith-mars-climate-change_n_5568058.html

    Did you know the temperature on Mars is exactly the same as it is on Earth?

    Republican Calls Climate Change A Hoax Because Earth And Mars Have 'Exactly' Same Temperature

    PS Actually the temperatures are not the same.

  • 58
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    Kevin, regarding your last article on federal -> state influences, are there any effects in the other direction?

    guytaur, what double cross would that be?

  • 59
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    24 has live coverage

  • 60
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Dear Bludgers

    Last night my darling Ken died, “after a long illness”, as they say (lung disease of unknown origin).

    He was Ken Simpson, editor/author of 8 editions of the Simpson and Day “Field Guide to the Birds of Australia”. He was also a lecturer, researcher, geologist, mad collector of rocks, a gardener who loved to dig holes, a creative thinker and humorist, an educator, a conservationist and a Labor supporter.

    Over his lifetime he studied penguins and other wildlife on Macquarie Island, aboriginal skeletons in the Chowilla Project, birds on Groote Eylandt, and lectured and wrote on birds from the age of 11. He was one of the “old-fashioned” naturalists who was a generalist rather than a specialist. His more recent research was the identification of vagrant rare penguins which land on the shores of Australia, so he was studying tides and the El Nino/La Nina effects. His contempt for the Abbotts and scientific blockheads of this world was deep and strong.

    In keeping with his philosophy, he has also donated his body for research.

    He was my companion for twenty years.

    Thank you all for your continuous stream of political criticism and invective and occasional wisdom, which has been a useful distraction for me over many months.

  • 61
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    fredex,

    In these situations you refer to the science. Elton John wrote many years ago,

    Mars ain’t the kid of place to raise your kids.
    In fact it’s cold as hell….

    Good enough for me.

  • 62
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Zoom @10

    I wish you did have a job in the press gallery, but then we wouldn’t have you ripping into the journos here. Good commentary.

  • 63
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Palmer self interest rules

    Its RET and Palmer doing well on renewables as I think GG pointed out

  • 64
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    lizzie,

    Sorry for your loss.

  • 65
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Hewson I am no Al Gore

  • 66
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    Sorry to hear of your loss, :(

  • 67
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Very damaging presser for Abbott

  • 68
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    lizzie – Condolences.

  • 69
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    So sorry and sad for you.

    My deepfelt condolences

    Vale Ken.

    :(

  • 70
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    The Senate seems to be spinning out of control.

    The last parliament/government wasn’t chaotic, but this Senate … who knows what is going to happen until each and every vote is taken.

    And who can say what scrambled half-arsed grab bag of policy we have left standing at the end of the day…

  • 71
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    My dearest condolences. Sounds like Ken had a life well lived.

  • 72
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    My condolences too, lizzie.

  • 73
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    lizzie
    Condolences.

  • 74
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    Liz: my condolences to you.

  • 75
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    lizzie
    Sorry to hear that.

    I have 4 copies of Simpson and Day Field Guides, various editions as I updated as time progressed and they got worn out by being dragged around the countryside.
    My favourite field guide – a worthy legacy.

    We need more people like Ken.

    Look after yourself.

  • 76
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    DisplayName@58

    Kevin, regarding your last article on federal -> state influences, are there any effects in the other direction?

    I haven’t looked at this in terms of state parties in power impacting on federal results but I’d expect the impact would be much weaker if so and possibly lost in the noise. Quite a tricky one to analyse because there have been so few federal government defeats. Probably I’d use a weighting by population for the states to see if there was any link.

    Nonetheless state politics can impact strongly on federal voting intention sometimes. I think the best example was in late 1992 when the behaviour of the new Kennett government in Victoria was one of the factors that caused a massive sudden shift back to Keating.

  • 77
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    @3AW693:
    Kennett: "This is as much a minority gov't as under Gillard-Rudd."

  • 78
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    kieran Gilbert
    Palmer says he thinks the Govt is playing tricks on the carbon tax repeal "it's called double crossing people"

  • 79
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Hewson says Abbott should have kept carbon tax just change it to zero and have ETS ready to be activated if other countries act #auspol

  • 80
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Clive says they’ll vote against carbon tax repeal this arvo.

    Been double crossed by Abbott, says he.

  • 81
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    “@danielhurstbne: Palmer: “We stand today at the edge of time for an appointment with destiny .. The globe is changing; the globe is getting warmer””

  • 82
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    lizzie – my condolences too … not only as a PB poster but as President of the Tasmanian Field Naturalists Club.

  • 83
    swamprat
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    Palmer actually has a good speaking voice, regardless of ideas. Shorten has a voice with an irritating whine in it and Abbott is barely articulate.

  • 84
    adam abdool
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    Hi lizzie, very sad to hear about your loss. Our thoughts are with you.

  • 85
    swamprat
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Lizzie

    Sorry to hear of your loss.

  • 86
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    @CliveFPalmer talking about the "difficulties" he has "fighting climate skeptics." He means Abbott of course. #auspol

  • 87
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    “@mikeclay: RT @Riley7News: Clive delivers Government a #FacePalmer on carbon.”

  • 88
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    Clive praises Hewson as a liberal leader from a time the party was a broad church. He says lib party now a shadow of its former self #auspol

  • 89
    swamprat
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    Wow, Palmer says our ETS is the best in the world!!

  • 90
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    Palmer to amend carbon tax repeal to keep current ETS in place #auspol #abcnews24

  • 91
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Clive sitting there listening to Hewson tear Abbott’s climate change policies and attitudes apart, piece by piece, rationally, cogently.

    I think Clive is allowing himself to be exposed to climate change sensible talk, and is on a steep learning curve, day by day. I think his policies will change almost daily as he gets to understand fine detail he previously didn’t have a clue about.

    Good luck Abbott.

    As I write, Clive says “we’ve got to listen to wise people like John Hewson. ”

    Suck that up Macho Man!

  • 92
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Does Palmer’s party agree with him?

  • 93
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    #FacePalmer

    Love it.

  • 94
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Lizzie

    So sad for you.

    What an interesting and productive man your Ken was!

  • 95
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Palmer may have just executed the biggest trolling exercise on Abbott in Australian political history.

  • 96
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    Palmer timing exquisite. Let the Abbott hubris go on full display

  • 97
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    There are no words to convey how sad you must be today.

    Take heart that you were loved and loved in return.

    Your comments on here have told us of your concern for Ken and his declining health and it will be tough for you but you will get through it in time.

    Allow yourself time to grieve and take care of yourself.

  • 98
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    Psyclaw

    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:46 am | PERMALINK
    Lizzie

    So sad for you.

    What an interesting and productive man your Ken was!

    Indeed…..

  • 99
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Abbott press conference this morning telling everyone their power bills are about to drop.

    Palmer and Hewson stand up and tell the public he’s a liar.

    Outstanding

  • 100
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    Sad news. Condolences to you and all who knew him.

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