tip off

BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

1240
  • 1201
    Henry
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Great win by the defending premiers and this years premiership favorites the mighty hawks.
    Cost of living cheats Sydney next up.

  • 1202
    crikey whitey
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Psyclaw.

    Bruce Haigh was on the program.

    Did a fantastic job of setting them right!

  • 1203
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    H

    *laughs* not that you are prejudiced.

    Has Hale played his last game for the firsts, barring injuries?

  • 1204
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    “The Hamas rockets launched at Israel are totally ineffective and simply serve as a show of defiance and to provoke the Israelis to more excesses.”

    Note that their rocket attacks on Israel are not ineffective by design. They try to target – as best they can – civilian centres and in this latest round, airports. It just so happens that Israel has highly advanced technology able to shoot their rockets out of the sky (the so-called Iron Dome) and the fact the rockets themselves are fairly shitty by most standards.

    But would the people firing them rejoice if they hit a school, hospital, seminary or even a departing civilian airliner? I think the answer’s obvious.

  • 1205
    silmaj
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    1198
    Oh yes he’s a legend

  • 1206
    victoria
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Hale has been out of form recently. Cant see him coming back anytime soon

  • 1207
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    bemused and twaddle

    Similar arguments were used about Irish Protestants and Catholics.

    Lets not add to the ME problem by perpetuating the same arguments. Instead lets just condemn the violence and warcrimes on both sides.

    Then we can get to looking at some real solutions that are unthinkable now.

  • 1208
    Henry
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Halo may be cooked B.
    Cegsy as we know it is filling the void nicely and Big Boy finally did something.

  • 1209
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    If Pyne and Abetz two of the most obnoxious people on the planet are negotiating with Palmer I think they would do better with the tea lady

  • 1210
    confessions
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Well I tipped Adelaide.

    Methinks this round is going to be the round that sorts the real deals from the also rans in our office footy tipping comp.

  • 1211
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle@1204

    bemused

    “The Hamas rockets launched at Israel are totally ineffective and simply serve as a show of defiance and to provoke the Israelis to more excesses.”

    Note that their rocket attacks on Israel are not ineffective by design. They try to target – as best they can – civilian centres and in this latest round, airports. It just so happens that Israel has highly advanced technology able to shoot their rockets out of the sky (the so-called Iron Dome) and the fact the rockets themselves are fairly shitty by most standards.

    But would the people firing them rejoice if they hit a school, hospital, seminary or even a departing civilian airliner? I think the answer’s obvious.

    Yep, really evens up the conflict doesn’t it?

    Yes, after having their schools and hospitals hit, they probably would rejoice if they scored a similar hit.

    But even then, the warheads on their rockets are minuscule compared to the Israeli bombs.

  • 1212
    victoria
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Foreign accountants are being allowed into Australia under a scheme designed more to prop up the lucrative market for international students than ensure an adequate supply of bean counters, Monash University researcher Bob Birrell says.

    The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency recently said there was a risk of an oversupply of accountants in the medium term. But it advised the federal government to issue preferential visas to accountants because “historical data and demographic trends suggest that domestic supply will be insufficient to meet demand for accountants in the long term”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/accountant-shortage-a-myth-to-prop-up-courses-says-academic-20140711-zt34c.html

  • 1213
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    In any case, one side in this conflict rejoices in killing and targeting civilians, the other side does their best to avoid it.

    Intentions matter, in my view.

  • 1214
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Well Goodnight from me.

    BB Good yarn on the talking loo. :)

  • 1215
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    But would the people firing them rejoice if they hit a school, hospital, seminary or even a departing civilian airliner? I think the answer’s obvious.

    And i think the question is irrelevant and foolish. What is worse attempted murder or murder? I don’t get clowns who seem to say over and over again attempted is worse than actual murder.

  • 1216
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    victoria@1212


    Foreign accountants are being allowed into Australia under a scheme designed more to prop up the lucrative market for international students than ensure an adequate supply of bean counters, Monash University researcher Bob Birrell says.

    The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency recently said there was a risk of an oversupply of accountants in the medium term. But it advised the federal government to issue preferential visas to accountants because “historical data and demographic trends suggest that domestic supply will be insufficient to meet demand for accountants in the long term”.


    http://www.theage.com.au/business/accountant-shortage-a-myth-to-prop-up-courses-says-academic-20140711-zt34c.html

    Bob Birrell is of course dead right.

    Did you go to the AFR article that is linked to? It has even more detailed information and is well worth a read.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/professional_services/fanciful_projections_leave_accounting_T3HlSf4VoioZgO274eVLII

    An incoming Labor Govt should shut down all these scams as soon as possible and force employers to employ Australian graduates and provide any necessary additional training.

    Goodness! It might even reduce unemployment.

  • 1217
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle@1213

    bemused

    In any case, one side in this conflict rejoices in killing and targeting civilians, the other side does their best to avoid it.

    Intentions matter, in my view.

    So do outcomes, in my view.

  • 1218
    deblonay
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Top CIA spy in Germany gets the Boot …by the German Govt…while another spy…a German citizn.. is on trial for spying on the US behalf on N agekla Merke and others
    _____________
    This article from the US conservative looks at the new rifts developing between German and the USA

    Some Germaqns now call for the end of US bases on german soil

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/outraged-by-espionage-angela-merkel-robert-menendez/

  • 1219
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    The adults of Israel and Palestine have failed miserably in their duty of care to provide safe living conditions, and basic human rights for their children. These adults all stand condemned in my eyes.

  • 1220
    victoria
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    Jon Faine has been talking about 457visas frequently of late. He believes that there needs fo be a full review of system

    Anyhoo night all

  • 1221
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    WeWantPaul

    No one’s asking that question. Perhaps you mean to ask is if manslaughter is worse than attempted murder? From most ethical perspectives that take intention into account, the answer is a definite no. Attempted murder is a specific and fully-formed intent and set of actions with a view to killing a specific person or persons whereas manslaughter can happen through mere negligence.

    One has more moral weight than the other, from my view.

  • 1222
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    victoria@1220

    bemused

    Jon Faine has been talking about 457visas frequently of late. He believes that there needs fo be a full review of system

    Anyhoo night all

    Yes, and good on him.

    I emailed him some material produced by the Australian Computer Society.

    I believe the 457 system should be simply shut down.

    If we cannot train enough of our own people for the workforce, then we should admit skilled migrants through normal migration processes.

  • 1223
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Considering we are in the eye of the storm, between last weeks Senate sitting and next weeks sitting of both houses Poll bludger has been a good read today, well done all and good night.

  • 1224
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    But would the people firing them rejoice if they hit a school, hospital, seminary or even a departing civilian airliner? I think the answer’s obvious.

    LoL so dropping hundreds of bombs on a civilian population is manslaugther? You have had way too much koolaid.

  • 1225
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    WeWantPaul

    “LoL so dropping hundreds of bombs on a civilian population is manslaugther? You have had way too much koolaid.”

    If you’re just to go ahead and caricature my position no matter how reasonably I respond to you, then I won’t bother replying any more.

  • 1226
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Murder involves intent. Manslaughter is death that is not intended, but has occurred because of the actions of the accused. That is my lay understanding of the difference.

  • 1227
    deblonay
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Carnival Time in the ACT
    ______________

    The Senate schomozzle will not improve

    Abott is a bully with no skills in negotiating anything…a under-graduate bover-boy,who had great skill in thugish Uni politics which he played and in some ways still adopts…but what went well at Sydney Uni SRC in the 70ies won’t work in the Senate,,,this is the Big League
    His hard line LOTO days didn’t prepare him for this mess

    Palmer is a Qland showman extraordinaire…a graduate of the JOH School of tactical disharmony and a populist in the old Qland tradition which gave us Pauline Hanson…he is having the time of his life,and couldn’t have imagined last year… that things would go so well for him in such a short time

    He has becoime a sort of LOTO in the absence of an ALP LOTO who can resonate with people’s problems

    Poor old Shorten , barely listened too in the Canberra hubbub with all the charisma of a wet-sock , and he is adrift here

    Assured of the Lab-Green senate votes ,Palmer will play ducks and drakes with the Govt, which looks increasing adrift and quite inept…as it is,and will continue to lose support…even his business mates are starting to worry about Abbott..see today’s Ch of Commerce statements

    The only real Lib leader sits on the sidelines waiting for the moment…which will come after the Vic elections in Nov ,which will deliver a landslide to Labor,and finally make many Libs sit up and wonder long and hard about Abbott’s future,,,or if he has one

    It was stroke of luck that saw Brumby defeated 4 years ago by a tiny margin in Victoria…or we might not be looking for such a result in Nov…politics depends on so many stray events
    watch this space

  • 1228
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    I think Shorten is very happy to let Clive roll in and flatten everything in sight. Whatever happens, Shorten can either blame Abbott or Clive :)

  • 1229
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    457 visas should be stopped immediately. If there are not enough trained workers for an industry, they can go without for failing to train their workforce or to support education and training of local workers in the skills they need. The only exception should be in areas such as high end specialties where training and experience takes years to gain competency.

  • 1230
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    I meant where it takes decades of training and experience to gain competency.

  • 1231
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    My girlfriend is a fully-qualified registered nurse who is not an Australian permanent resident. She looked high and low for graduate nursing positions after she completed her degree here with no luck whatsoever – all the positions were very rapidly filled by Australian citizens who of course get first preference. We’re in the process of getting her a partner visa, if it’s granted then she’ll find it much easier to find work.

    So if anyone’s operating under the assumption it’s easy to get a nursing job under the 457 scheme they’re sorely mistaken. Other industries I can’t speak to.

  • 1232
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    If you’re just to go ahead and caricature my position no matter how reasonably I respond to you, then I won’t bother replying any more.

    Really given your position you would be better off not responding. I’m not sure how you would say that was a caricature?

  • 1233
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    WWP

    Oh cool, then perhaps you can quote me saying that indiscriminately dropping bombs on civilian population centres is mere manslaughter? I don’t recall posting that here, but as you claim not to have caricatured my position then feel free to quote it.

    I’ll be waiting.

  • 1234
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    WWP

    Oh cool, then perhaps you can quote me saying that indiscriminately dropping bombs on civilian population centres is mere manslaughter? I don’t recall posting that here, but as you claim not to have caricatured my position then feel free to quote it.

    I’ll be waiting.

    Well your whole intent manslaughter thing? What exactly was your position? I must be mistaken but I thought it was trying to suggest somehow that killing zero people was as culpable as killing 80ish because those that haven’t killed anyone might have wanted to kill more.

  • 1235
    bemused
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    Mike Carlton’s column is now available: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/scott-morrison-out-to-lunch-20140710-zt2qe.html

  • 1236
    Bugler
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    WarrenPeace,

    Thanks for your contribution :) It’s been good for the students and community here (doesn’t always get a good reaction, I recall some French students we hosted being horrified at the idea of keeping reptiles). I’m merely an ex-student but will run the idea past someone when I’m there next Sunday helping with the Production. I heard about this from a friend who after year 12 was employed by the school to assist with keeping the reptile room (news of the fire itself spread pretty quickly).

  • 1237
    Bugler
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    WarrenPeace @1183,

    I always wondered what it would be like to be right there while history happens… at least you were caught up in what I guess we could say was a positive moment and not a piece of history we’d rather didn’t happen.

  • 1238
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    then perhaps you can quote me saying that indiscriminately dropping bombs on civilian population centres is mere manslaughter?

    Except that the the bombs are not indiscriminate. They seem to be very tightly targeted.

    And there are still civilians being killed.

    At some point the Israelis are going to twig that bombing / shelling / invading Gaza just helps the people who REALLY hate them with recruitment. In terms of stopping terrorism its been shown that it just doesn’t work.

  • 1239
    Otiose
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 2:51 am | Permalink

    Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Senate, #abbott, Headless Chook, by @moir_alan © http://bit.ly/1mGGrZs

  • 1240
    Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 4:05 am | Permalink

    New thread.

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