tip off

Seat of the week: Lyons

The central Tasmanian electorate of Lyons covers some of the poorest and least ethnically diverse territory in the country, and it recorded the nation’s biggest anti-Labor swing at the 2013 election.

Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.

Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.

Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.

1035
  • 1001
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    I missed this yesterday

    Several of those directors who were under investigation now lead the board of the Western Australia's Western Desert Lands Aboriginal Corporation and control the proceeds of its multimillion-dollar mining deals, which include a contentious agreement brokered by a company part-owned by Prime Minister Tony Abbott's top indigenous adviser, Warren Mundine.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/cash-missing-cars-fail-to-spark-criminal-probe-in-to-indigenous-body-20140712-zt5du.html

    Night all

  • 1002
    sceptic
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    “Murdoch thinks the NBN is ridiculous as it will be overtaken by wireless technology. Plus wireless is much easier to hack.”

    Rupert won’t be relying on wireless for his 4k / ultra HD football broadcasting.
    Not that anyone cares about ultra HD

  • 1003
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Leroy,

    Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 1m
    @Leroy_Lynch But with OPV, probably not enough for LNP to lose seats
    10:18 PM - 13 Jul 2014

    Interesting. That “split” in the conservative vote may win Labor some seats (which the cynic in me says is why they introduced OPV to begin with, before Coalition merged).

  • 1004
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Is Murray retiring?

    @Craig_Foster: The best ever.. Les Murray.. an enduring legacy and pioneer of Australian football. Been a privilege, old friend.. http://t.co/ZFLls4AGaU

  • 1005
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Actually, does anyone know the rate of exhausted votes in Qld under OPV, and if there’s much variance in exhaustion rates between the different 3rd/minor parties?

  • 1006
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Les should keep going and Craig should retire

  • 1007
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Actually, does anyone know the rate of exhausted votes in Qld under OPV, and if there's much variance in exhaustion rates between the different 3rd/minor parties?

    The best answer you’ll get to such questions is on page 10 here:

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=3248

    Keeping in mind that this is the 2009 election, it appears roughly half of non-major party voters just voted one, along with another 5-6% who numbered multiple boxes but not all. The exhaustion rate was a little lower for Greens and Family First voters and higher for non-metropolitan independents, for whom it was about 60%.

  • 1008
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Antony Green’s survey of Vic State seats for the next election in Nov ,taking into consideration the redistribtion of recent times and the changes that have happened
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2013/redistribution.htm

    BTW BENUSED>>>that candidate in Mt Wavereley will need a swing of about %8 to win for Labor…but the polls do show a very sharp swing is on the way

  • 1009
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll QLD State Seat of Pumicestone: LNP 41 (-12.2 from election) ALP 37 (+6.6) PUP 13 #qldpol #auspol”

  • 1010
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 1m
    #Galaxy Poll QLD State Seat of Pumicestone 2PP: LNP 52 (-10.1 from election) ALP 48 (+10.1) #qldpol #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 21s
    #Galaxy Poll QLD State Seat of Pumicestone: LNP 41 (-12.2 from election) ALP 37 (+6.6) PUP 13 #qldpol #auspol

  • 1011
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Laurie Oakes warns Abbott
    ______________
    In the Melb Hun…Oakes says Abbott’s govt will be destroyed if he cannot get on top of the Senate and notably Palmer
    noiw that may be so but it’s a big ask”

    The Hun is full on it’s attacks on Palmer…on Friday it had a page One pic of Palmer’s ample belly with the headline”We’ve had a gutful” not subtle but great Murdoch stuff…they are priceless

  • 1012
    daretotread
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Deblonay

    I also beg you to keep posting your links. 5+ years ago I closely followed the ME stuff, but cannot bring myself to follow it now as it upsets me too much. I rely on you to keep me informed and with give me doses of misery as high as I can tolerate. They say that children who were abused, grow up to become abusers. Seems also to be true of nations. Israel has leaned from NAZI Germany but commits genocide with greater skill.

  • 1013
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Thanks William, that’s exactly what I was looking for, saved for future reference.

    Not that I should read too much into exhaustion rates. Antony Green appears to be of the opinion that the LNP would only be four seats less under CPV rather than OPV in 2012…

  • 1014
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    I understand the Unions (not sure which ones) ran a strong “number all the boxes and put LNP last” (or words to that effect) campaign in the last State by-election, so perhaps the opposition can do something to correct this OPV effect if there is a split anti govt mood.

  • 1015
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Love the way the Murdoch scumatariate attack Palmer. It helps him in the end not harm. Increases his profile, gets him more widely known, and can be seen as not ‘one of them’.

    People might be getting sick of the normal Labor Coalition game…and a big influential voice challenging the way things are will suite a lot of those ‘others’ and those wanting to desert the Coalition.

    Keep up the attacks Murdoch scumboys.

  • 1016
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Rupert Murdoch today:

    ''The world has been changing for thousands and thousands of years. It's just a lot more complicated because we are so much more advanced.''

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/fight-climate-change-by-building-away-from-sea-rupert-murdoch-20140713-zt66s.html#ixzz37M0NGNFV

    The problem is that the last time temperatures rose (and not by as much as they are going rise this time), the world population was around 1/30th of what it is today.

    That’s more than “a lot more complicated”. Thats a f**king disaster looming.

  • 1017
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    Newscorp is to journalism as the IPA is to ‘think’ tank.

  • 1018
    psyclaw
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    Bemused Comrade

    No, it is you who is dead wrong about Cuneen.

    Now she says it was not her personal opinion but a legal view, relevant to what a jury might believe.

    But lawyers are experts at the fine and defined use of the language if nothing else.

    Her words were “it is unbelievable that a 13 year old could experience an orgasm ……”.

    She did not say ” a jury would find it unbelievable that …….”

    The proof of the pudding that it was her personal view is her rationalisation “In the 100s of cases across my desk I haven’t seen cases of female orgasm associated with sexual assault……”

    Ditto re 13 year old girl swimmers not having breasts words. Again, she did not say “a jury might easily accept that a 13 year old girl swimmer even has breasts…” She stated her view of it.

    Waterstreet’s view of it is quite correct. As I said a few days back, experts are aplenty in the forensic health and sexual assault support services who could easily straighten her naive view out.

    I suspect she now does not hold the same views after her Special Commission, since I know she has certainly heard over the past year explicit evidence about young boys experiencing orgasm at the hands of clergy . And in her report she does not refute such evidence

    Maybe her issue is that she can conceive it of boys, but not girls. This would be very interesting, and certainly a personal and ill informed view.

    We all live and learn and professionally develop over the decades. The pity is that she now resiles from nothing …… not even admitting that her wording allows an interpretation that her legal view was worded clumsily and in hindsight is stated clumsily in the first person.

    And there is another more troubling aspect. Her opinion went to the DPP Cowdrey who admitted to the RC that he used her work verbatim in advising the Qld DPP.

    Cuneen expressed the view to the RC that her notes were in fact in-house, never being intended for public consumption.

    So here we have the NSW DPP at least wording in-house advices in the structure of written personal opinion, then presented externally, still structured as personal opinion, and the advice giver Cuneen and the DPP now arguing that it was a legal view, not a personal view.

    And here’s the crux ….. why didn’t Cunneen cite actual legal argument then, and in her defence now, to support her views. The only evidence she cites are her personal views and her personal experiences.

  • 1019
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    “@peterjukes: One reason the papers failed to expose Savile: his connections. He spent 11 New Year’s Eves with Thatcher: Rupert Murdoch every Christmas”

  • 1020
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (+1) ALP 54 (-1) #auspol”

  • 1021
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/repeal-carbon-tax-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226987586528

    Repeal carbon tax: Newspoll
    The Australian July 13, 2014 10:45PM

    Phillip Hudson
    Bureau Chief
    Canberra

    Sid Maher
    National Affairs Editor
    Canberra

    A MAJORITY of voters want Clive Palmer and his senators to immediately support the removal of the carbon tax as the repeal legislation is expected to be reintroduced into parliament today.

    A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian after last Thursday’s chaos in the Senate saw the repeal bills rejected, reveals 53 per cent want the controversial tax to be abolished.

    Only 35 per cent want the Palmer United Party to continue to block the removal of the tax, while 12 per cent are uncommitted.

    Read the full story in tomorrow’s The Australian.

    I presume the main poll will be out a day after.

  • 1022
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Opps, it is all out! They are just emphasising the CT question in the teaser article.

  • 1023
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    I smell panic:

    Repeal carbon tax: Newspoll
    THE AUSTRALIAN JULY 13, 2014 10:45PM

    Phillip Hudson
    Bureau Chief
    Canberra

    Sid Maher

    National Affairs Editor
    Canberra

    A MAJORITY of voters want Clive Palmer and his senators to immediately support the removal of the carbon tax as the repeal legislation is expected to be reintroduced into parliament today.

    A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian after last Thursday’s chaos in the Senate saw the repeal bills rejected, reveals 53 per cent want the controversial tax to be abolished.

    Only 35 per cent want the Palmer United Party to continue to block the removal of the tax, while 12 per cent are uncommitted.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/repeal-carbon-tax-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226987586528

    Whenever they hide the obvious numbers, you know they’re going to be stinkers.

    The obvious question is: if they’re so sure Palmer will repeal the tax, why bother with a Newspoll question about it?

  • 1024
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Just missed those 2PP numbers.

    Look like there’s been a positive SURRRRRRGGGGGE! of support for Tones.

  • 1025
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    well 46 to 54 in favour of ALP 2PP

  • 1026
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll is just resting. It’s having a breather on the way up for Labor.

  • 1027
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    LOL News Ltd relying on Carbon “tax”, my how many people will be fooled once it’s removed.

  • 1028
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    New thread.

  • 1029
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    LOL News Ltd relying on Carbon “tax”, my how many people will be fooled once it’s removed.

    Surely Abbott /Credlin are setting themselves up for a big “the boy who cried wolf” moment when the carbon tax is removed and no one notices any change!

  • 1030
    matt31
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    @BB

    I’d hardly call a 1 percent move in 2pp a surge. I’d call it margin of error. Still to see actual numbers though.

  • 1031
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Dare to Tread
    _________
    Glad you find my ME posting of interest
    I agree with you re the “abused becme the abuser” argument
    This is the view of Uri Avnery,whose family escaped the Nazis
    and as a young man he became a Labor-zionist -soldier in 1948

    He detests Netanyahu and what he sees a a kind of racist/fascist mindset around him…which he says may end with the collapse of what he calls the zionist project

    Could I suggest you read two sites ( I’ll put them up”) the site of Prof Cole…”informed Comment” and also of Mondoweiss…a lively NY-USA site from anti-Netanyahu young US jewish writers( it is hard to denounce these ae anit-semitic isn’t it ?)
    Thanks for your comment

  • 1032
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Dare to Tread
    The Mondoweiss site…today they day the message for the Palestinians is”submit,’leave or die”… as some Israelis call for an end even to the idea of a Palestinian state

    http://mondoweiss.net/

  • 1033
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Dare to Tread
    Mondoweiss site

    great stuuf daily
    chttp://www.juancole.com/

  • 1034
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Re LL @1021: I suppose Newscorp didn’t ask how many voters wanted the end of bulk billing blocked; the doubling of tertiary fees and crushing young people with debt at the start of their careers blocked; cuts to health and pensions blocked; work till you drop blocked; free rein to spivs blocked; abolition of unemployment benefits for the young blocked; the attack on disability pensioners blocked.

  • 1035
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Re BB @1016: Rupert of course ‘forgot’ to mention that as the climate changed through natural causes in the past, millions died. When the rains failed, the people mostly died. The sea level rose, tribes moved inland and took their chances with the environment and those who were already there. Bloody wars would have ensued. And in this century, changes to climate and rainfall patterns would cause massive economic dislocation – rather worse than a carbon tax. In places like Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands, people will just drown or starve. Some may escape but their reception will make Scott Morrison look like a humanitarian.

    But hey, the elites will be OK, as always.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...