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Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

986

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  • 1
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    LOL News Ltd relying on Carbon “tax”, my how many people will be fooled once it’s removed.

  • 2
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll still above Bludgertrack. And Newspoll likes Abbott.

  • 3
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    LOL News Ltd relying on Carbon “tax”, my how many people will be fooled once it’s removed.

    Surely Abbott /Credlin are setting themselves up for a big “the boy who cried wolf” moment when the carbon tax is removed and no one notices any change!

  • 4
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    No significant movement after Abbott’s hosting of Abe and all those supposed statesmanlike photo ops?

  • 5
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 11m
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 11 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 9m
    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 31 (0) Disapprove 60 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 9m
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 34 (0) Disapprove 43 (+2) #auspol

  • 6
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    @swamprat/3

    Next will be asset sell off for privatization, will make prices even higher, just as they did before.

    HINT: TELSTRA IS STILL EXPENSIVE AFTER ALL THESE YEARS.

  • 7
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    I am shocked that only 60% disapprove of Abbott!

  • 8
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    So it’s the Greens losing 2% that has let Labor down?

  • 9
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    No significant movement after Abbott’s hosting of Abe and all those supposed statesmanlike photo ops?

    Plus all that “wrecking ball” palaver about Palmer and the Senate “chaos” he supposedly caused, then the Union Royal Commission, and of course Hedley Thomas.

    Looks like the Punters have had enough.

  • 10
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    If the 31% who approve of Abbott emigrated, Australia would be a much smarter country.

  • 11
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    That is if the carbon tax is removed.

    There is still a slim possibility that it will not. There is the possibility that Palmer will delay it and the delay becomes long enough that an ETS becomes the default.

    Many other scenarios. So its not all over red rover. That will only happen when we see the Senate vote repeal in.

  • 12
    imacca
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Surely Abbott /Credlin are setting themselves up for a big “the boy who cried wolf” moment when the carbon tax is removed and no one notices any change!

    I suspect they are relying on Uncle Rupert to deal with that. :)

    Speaking of favorite uncles….anyone heard anything Arthur Sinodos lately??

  • 13
    matt31
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Pretty much a nothing to see here poll as far as the numbers go. All movements well and truly within moe. So little wonder the Aus is screaming repeal carbon tax.

    The real question is, if voters still want the ct repealed, in the unlikely event it is not, who will voters blame? or, as I suspect, people may be telling pollsters they want it gone but it’s no longer a vote switcher!

  • 14
    Jackol
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    And, of course, it is worth remembering that the ALP went to the last election promising to terminate the ‘carbon tax’. So I’d still assume there’s a lot of confusion over the term ‘carbon tax’ and who would be supporting repealing it and what they might want it replaced with.

  • 15
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    For a man who has opinions about the CIA a Newspoll will not be trusted. Instead he will be relying on his own resources including most likely his own polling.

    Another area that Mordor screaming headlines will have less influence than they think.

  • 16
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    I wish Labor would, to an exert, adopt the Abbott tactics and use a few repetitive slogans, like reminding the population that this is “the most radical government in Australia’s history” and “this is a government/budget of unfairness” etc every time they get interviewed.

    Australians hate extremist governments.

    Every ALP MP seems to act as an individual responding to the issue at the moment as journalist ask them. This is commendable but does not reinforce a message..

  • 17
    matt31
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    @guytaur

    Was just thinking the exact same thing. Clive will laugh this off as a Murdoch poll and it will not influence him in the slightest I wouldn’t think.

    I still think, sadly, that our current carbon price will be repealed, but I am the first to admit I thought it would have been repealed on Thursday.

  • 18
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Queensland Sat polling. Charts in the first one.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/clive-palmers-pup-looks-to-take-out-bob-katters-political-outfit-not-rival-newmans-lnp/story-e6frfkp9-1226987524686

    Clive Palmer’s PUP looks to take out Bob Katter’s political outfit, not rival Newman’s LNP
    July 14, 2014 12:00AM
    Steven Wardill Sarah Vogler
    The Courier-Mail

    CLIVE Palmer could be Premier Campbell Newman’s unlikely saviour at next year’s state election, cruelling Labor’s attempts to win some seats off the LNP.

    A new Galaxy poll, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, has debunked claims the combined forces of the Palmer United Party and Labor would work in concert to tear down the LNP majority.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/survey-highlights-voter-concern-over-pup-conflict-of-interest/story-e6frfkp9-1226987533732

    Survey highlights voter concern over PUP conflict of interest
    July 14, 2014 12:00AM
    Steven Wardill State Political Editor
    The Courier-Mail

    MOST Queenslanders are concerned Clive Palmer’s politics are all about self-interest.

    A new Galaxy poll, conducted exclusively for The ­Courier-Mail, has revealed voters are dubious about whether Mr Palmer can separate his business dealings from his political decisions.

    The poll of more than 2000 Queenslanders was taken across four electorates crucial to the Palmer United Party’s success at next year’s state election.

  • 19
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Previous thread…
    deblonay@1008 on Seat of the week: Lyons | The Poll Bludger

    Antony Green’s survey of Vic State seats for the next election in Nov ,taking into consideration the redistribtion of recent times and the changes that have happened
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2013/redistribution.htm

    BTW BENUSED>>>that candidate in Mt Wavereley will need a swing of about %8 to win for Labor…but the polls do show a very sharp swing is on the way

    As I said in an earlier post, based on the 2010 results, we need a touch under 7.5% in Mt Waverley.

    I have also stated in an earlier post that we are assisted by a Lib member who is inept.

  • 20
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Previous thread…
    psyclaw@1018 on Seat of the week: Lyons | The Poll Bludger

    Bemused Comrade

    No, it is you who is dead wrong about Cuneen.

    OK, it seems you have followed it much more than I have and you have other knowledge I don’t have.

  • 21
    swamprat
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Leroy Lynch

    Palmers main opponent is Murdoch and his propaganda rags.

    He will need a strategy to take on Murdoch.

  • 22
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    Goodnight

  • 23
    bemused
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    bemused@19

    Previous thread…
    deblonay@1008 on Seat of the week: Lyons | The Poll Bludger

    Antony Green’s survey of Vic State seats for the next election in Nov ,taking into consideration the redistribtion of recent times and the changes that have happened
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2013/redistribution.htm

    BTW BENUSED>>>that candidate in Mt Wavereley will need a swing of about %8 to win for Labor…but the polls do show a very sharp swing is on the way

    As I said in an earlier post, based on the 2010 results, we need a touch under 7.5% in Mt Waverley.

    I have also stated in an earlier post that we are assisted by a Lib member who is inept.

    Ahhhh, read Anthony Green now.

    Yes, you and he are right. I was overlooking the effect of the redistribution.

  • 24
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    Bemused
    There are a whole swag of seats I think Labor will win in the slim margins and there are those seats like yours where a really big swing may turn up some surprising results
    I think Napthine is a goner
    good luck to Jenny in Mt W

  • 25
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Somewhat attempting to catch up.

    Ian Thorpe.

    That is a bit dopey. Everyone knew.

  • 26
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    Re Swamprat @21: maybe Clive should just say the Murdoch rags print crap, they are propaganda sheets for their master who does not have the interests of the ordinary Australian at heart and people shouldn’t waste their money buying them or their time reading them. If they buy them for the footy results, there are plenty of AFL and NRL sites and blogs. Repeat at every opportunity.

  • 27
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 12:57 am | Permalink

    Re Swamprat @16: a few slogans:
    - Your kids crushed with debt
    - Stop attacking the disabled
    - keep bulk billing
    - keep Medicare
    - Fair work
    - who do you trust? (subtext – no one in Abbott’s team)

  • 28
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    Insiders was unbelievable.

    Fran K was hostile. To anything Labor.

    Quite liked Nikki Savvage wearing her Chinese inspired jacket.

    Where the hell does Atkins get off? Front page Palmer and his Chinese whatever. Day after day. As if anyone gives a rats.

    And what on earth does Atkins think that the ‘Boswell Solution’ will work?

    Simple? Don’t do a deal with Clive.

    What and how does he think that affects Clive and his cohort and their and others power in the Senate.

    I ask.

  • 29
    leon
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 1:12 am | Permalink

    Atkins and Savva were so bad they made Middleton look good.

  • 30
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    Indeed. Leon.

  • 31
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 1:21 am | Permalink

    Karen Middleton being an obvious Liberal stooge, right?

  • 32
    silentmajority
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 1:40 am | Permalink

    I love these numbers.

    This guy never had a honeymoon.

  • 33
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 2:03 am | Permalink

    daretotread

    “Israel has leaned from NAZI Germany but commits genocide with greater skill.”

    Haha! Too ridiculous to be offensive.

  • 34
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 2:41 am | Permalink

    Gerreat!

    Far out. Having to suck it up, are you not, Kenny boy.

    University funding cuts cause severe indigestion for government

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/university-funding-cuts-cause-severe-indigestion-for-government-20140713-zt63m.html#ixzz37Mpz2Eyy

  • 35
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 2:44 am | Permalink

    Wouldn’t it be loverly!

    Education Minister Christopher Pyne appears to have taken much of the blame and would currently lose his electorate of Sturt in Adelaide’s eastern suburbs in a 15 per cent swing away from him, propelled by a disastrous approval rating of minus 14 per cent.

    He retained the seat easily at the 2013 election securing 54 per cent of the primary vote for a two-party-preferred result of 60 per cent.

    Now, his primary support has dropped to 41 per cent – a 13 per cent slump or a 15 per cent drop after preferences.

  • 36
    Otiose
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 3:25 am | Permalink

    Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 Israel, After Escher, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1mLXnxC

  • 37
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 3:26 am | Permalink

    Thinking on it.

    That is staggering, actually.

    Pyne’s electorate has a huge number of Italian origin families.

    Going on accepted wisdom, they and theirs value family and education above all else.

    South Australia has much to be grateful for.

    Our initial begrudging and suspicious settlement of our now beloved economic Italian ‘refugees’ and their handed to us any number of plates.

    Culture, values, food, celebration of life, it is a remarkable and rewarding thing.

    A zillion miles away from the joyless mentality of which Pyne is representative.

    I do hope that Pyne is ousted.

    He has had is day.

  • 38
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 4:15 am | Permalink

    Karen Middleton being an obvious Liberal stooge, right?

    Nup. William.

    Ms Middleton spoke perceptively and well in her analysis.

    Unlike the others.

  • 39
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:03 am | Permalink

    And now for something completely different…

    Watching the Germany v. Argentina World Cup final, in Bonn, Germany. The tension on the streets is palpable. Angela Merkel is sitting in the stadium beside the Brazilian president. The honour of both countries rests on the outcome of this game. I am hoping for a German win. I will keep you posted!

  • 40
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:10 am | Permalink

    10 mins in, it is pretty even – no team has an obvious monopoly of play

  • 41
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:15 am | Permalink

    14:19 into the game. Free kick to Germany, but not goal. sides currently evenly matched.

  • 42
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:28 am | Permalink

    25 mins in – both sides have had about equal possession, but it is a VERY fast game, and the outcome will be decided by the Poisson statistics of luck , with a fast move and fortuitous play when in possession leading to a goal.

  • 43
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:31 am | Permalink

    29 mins in, Argentina scores, but are ruled offside. But, at the moment I would say Argentina are the marginally stronger team.

  • 44
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:45 am | Permalink

    3 mins in, great save by Argentina. Score Nil all, but I think Argentina is slightly the stronger team?

  • 45
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    Wow! almost a goal to Germany, but player offside, and good save from from Argentina. These teams are very evenly matched! Half-time called – still Nil all.

  • 46
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 6:07 am | Permalink

    The game starts after half time. No goal yet, but definite advantage in possession and attack to Argentina.

  • 47
    Douglas and Milko
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    Still nil all, 10 mins after the second half commences. I am guessing that by now those of you who are interested are awake and watching! So no more updates

  • 48
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    The Curious Snail is making huge assumptions in its bollocks poll published today. They also totally ignore the Green vote. Maybe it didn’t fit into their theme.

  • 49
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 6:43 am | Permalink

    Hidden in The Australian small print.

    Today’s Newspoll shows ... ...others, including independents and minor parties, up a point to 16 per cent. The Palmer United Party is polling at about 3.5 per cent.

  • 50
    Socrates
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    Morning all. Is one goal so much to ask for? Evidently so.

    In other news Australian voters, having finally realised Tony Abbott is not fully sane, let alone honest, are not getting any more likely to vote for him.

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