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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 15, 2014

Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

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The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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886 comments

886 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

  1. Raaraa

    Big fan of Triple J here. Other than that and Triple M, every other station seems to be playing music on repeat to the minute if you listen it on a daily basis. The only caveat with Triple M is the ads but they’re the only two I can tolerate.

    Actually now I think I might have outgrown Triple J and might start tuning to Double J if I have my digital tuner with me.

    The Hack program has so far been pretty decent.

  2. sprocket_

    The video at the top of this article is worth watching to appreciate the front loops who now infest the Liberal Senate team, and literally surround McGrath.

    We have Bernardi in front of him, Artie the Bagman behind, Senator Cash alongside and yes, even a glimpse of Lejyonholm.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-james-mcgrath-makes-radical-call-for-gst-rise-privatisation-of-leftbiased-abc-20140716-3c1j8.html

  3. caf

    [Former prime minister John Howard will return to Parliament House to advise a select group of Government MPs on how to successfully prosecute economic reform.]

    This brings to mind the scene in Back To The Future Part II where Old Biff goes back in time to mentor his younger self.

  4. billie

    Doesn’t matter if the youf don’t like the idea of selling Triple J, they are about to be disenfranchised as the AEC removes couch surfers, car campers and homeless from the electoral roll

  5. sprocket_

    [Former prime minister John Howard will return to Parliament House to advise a select group of Government MPs on how to successfully prosecute economic reform.
    ]

    The Lying Rodent mentoring the Lying Friar.

  6. confessions

    [The definition of a racist is a person who treats other races worse than they treat their puppies.]

    Actually someone who treats their puppies better than they treat their fellow humankind is my kind of people.

  7. Dan Gulberry

    jules

    [Here’s music some people actually like.]

    Not many I’ll bet.

  8. Darren Laver

    [The definition of a racist is a person who treats other races worse than they treat their puppies.]

    In any case, when I was last overseas I ate a delightful puppy stew.

    Dogs are dangerous and most owners are irresponsible, letting them run free to harass and attack people in public places. So you can stick your puppy analogy where the sun don’t shine, girlfriend!

  9. confessions

    [The Hack program has so far been pretty decent.]

    Not a regular Hack listener, but back in the day when I was it was must listen material.

  10. guytaur

    Darren Laver

    One group big in JJ days and sure to be on the new JJ is Midnight Oil.

  11. Darren Laver

    Double J actually exists?

    I thought William was being sarcastic!

  12. guytaur

    On the ME.

    Israel has the right to defend itself. However like Hamas it does not have the right to commit war crimes.

  13. Rossmore

    Triple J I hazard a guess is the station of choice for the 14-30 demographic. I’d say for most kids at uni its the only station they listen to. It has that most precious commodity with its audience- authenticity Hell, this 50+ yr old still puts in a forlorn vote in its annual hottest 100

  14. guytaur

    DL

    Myf Warhurst is one of the presenters

  15. billie

    Jules @779 that was truuly musical, used to be Toosdee nite fare on JJJ

    Now what about this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOB4VdlkzO4&feature=kp

  16. jules

    Double j is ok. I used to live in melbourne and we were spoiled for great music across a really wide spectrum of genres with 3rrr, and 3 pbs it does seem a bit more like their music. The trouble with getting old is you are too busy listening to all the old music you haven’t caught up with yet to really get into new stuff.

    I moved to Northern NSW about the time jjj went national (was probably at the Gollan the night Grinspoon formed.) For about 10 years there really was something good about the national network jjj had. One of the things I enjoyed was the community/community radio vibe I got from it. Thats a great thing to have with a national radio network, there was probably nothing like it anywhere else on earth – possibly because Australia is so big and some people were so isolated yet jjj made us all feel closer somehow. And it was a musically diverse place that we all shared.

  17. William Bowe

    [One group big in JJ days and sure to be on the new JJ is Midnight Oil.]

    Probably not actually. Notwithstanding the impression given by its name, the station seems to presume that your tastes were formed in the 90s or the very late 80s at the latest, i.e. too late for Midnight Oil or anything else that might answer to the name of Oz rock.

  18. Bushfire Bill

    Darren Laver,

    [Dogs are dangerous and most owners are irresponsible, letting them run free to harass and attack people in public places. So you can stick your puppy analogy where the sun don’t shine, girlfriend!]

    Been trying to ignore the idiotic comments tonight as I have work to do.

    But this comment has to be one of the MOST idiotic, so much so that it has to be a joke.

    Right?

  19. jules

    Do Palestinians have the right to defend themselves against people stealing their land, building concrete walls through centuries old olive groves and all the rest?

  20. guytaur

    For those that want to know about JJ

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_J_(radio)

  21. confessions

    [But this comment has to be one of the MOST idiotic, so much so that it has to be a joke.]

    I think it was. He was responding to someone who equally, stupidly introduced puppies into a racism analogy.

  22. Martin B

    This faux french accent in the ad for the Tour Down Under that is screening during TdF coverage this year is even worse than usual.

  23. billie

    Jules

    PBS is still absolutely cool, and RRR is still here – I helped set up the forerunner to RRR
    I saw Myf Warhurst around the ABC studios earlier this year, she is small

    The North Coast is wall to wall Macquarie radio, their transmitters seem to be much more powerful than the ABC – I suppose that’s where the Parrott drummed up his Convoy of Incontinence from

  24. jules

    Dan @ 794 – probably not, but they’re all a bunch of palestines.

    Darren L – Double j is available via digital fta tv.

  25. guytaur

    Senator Leyton tells Tony Jones things have been so confusing Senators may have voted the wrong way by mistake

  26. Raaraa

    I thought I’d elicit a response to 791

    [Non-sequitur

    http://boingboing.net/2014/07/15/creepy-board-game-is-stark-rem.html%5D

    Such odd times.

  27. Dan Gulberry

    jules

    I’ll assume you meant philistines. 😉

  28. rossmcg

    Hockey rocking the boat has upset the crew

    From Fairfax

    Joe Hockey’s threat to bypass the Senate by ordering spending cuts outside of parliamentary approval has touched off a new Labor scare campaign and sparked concerns within the government over the Treasurer’s judgment.
    With voters offside and crossbench senators showing no signs of complying with unpopular budget measures, some Liberals complained that the Treasurer’s move had ”predictably” brought the opposite effect, branding his threat to cut other spending ”unwise”.

  29. Rossmore

    Every demographic considers its musical youth was the one and only true musical golden age.In a sense they are both right and wrong. Personally, I love nothing better than discovering a band that passed me by due to kids and work. Currently, getting lots of enjoyment from the early albums of Teenage Fanclub….

  30. guytaur

    Sorry That is Senator Leyonjhelm on Lateline

  31. Raaraa

    812

    Double J took the slot formerly taken by Dig Radio, which I believe is 200 on your digital TV.

  32. jules

    billie you must be a legend.

    These days I listen to music from everywhere, but not to the radio very often. Still rrr in melbourne tho.

    A friend used to do a graveyard shift on PBS years ago. We’d sometimes end up there after a night out giving reviews of the nights activities – what bands we saw or where we went.

  33. guytaur

    @AndrewBGreene: I’m calling ACCC – they’re ripoffs RT @lizfoschia: This warning sign in the media gallery at fed parlt house #auspol http://t.co/QZ18ZwGITX

  34. Rossmore

    PB seems to have an unusually high quotient of music loving posters.

  35. victoria

    Rossmore

    One song that i have rediscovered recently, is Sia’s “breathe me” which was released about 10 years ago.

  36. slothy

    guytaur # 813

    [Senator Leyton tells Tony Jones things have been so confusing Senators may have voted the wrong way by mistake]

    Good to know that the governance of the country is in such safe hands! /s

    Personally, I’d rather they were all p***ed as newts on sitting days. Better a drunk pollie than a ideologically crazy one.

  37. caf

    billie:

    [Doesn’t matter if the youf don’t like the idea of selling Triple J, they are about to be disenfranchised as the AEC removes couch surfers, car campers and homeless from the electoral roll]

    Proposals to outright raise the voting age can’t be far away.

  38. adrian

    itunes radio is fantastic, and you don’t have to put up with an idiot announcer. I’ve discovered some grat artists that I would never otherwise have heard about.

  39. adrian

    ….great artists that should be.

  40. Rossmore

    ta Victoria, I’ll have a peep at that Sia song.

  41. Rossmore

    I do hope the ALP think seriously about a commitment to lower the voting age to 16 yrs.

  42. jules

    Dan @ 815 – I was just being silly. Tho the philistines did live in gaza once, or so I’ve heard anyway.

    I don’t mind porcupine tree. Thanks for that, I’d never heard of them.

  43. billie

    Jules modesty demands that I set you straight. I helped set up a forerunner to RRR, I was trailing behind the legend

  44. guytaur

    Good night

  45. Just Me

    Never met a musical style/genre/era/culture that didn’t produce something worth listening to. My music library is large and extremely diverse.

  46. pedant

    Mr Hockey must have taken leave of his senses. Having brassed off half the country by proposing cuts which will screw them, he now proposed to open fire on even more people? The more they talk about spending cuts, the more it highlights that they’re not prepared to deal with the issue of revenue leakage.

    For years now, the Liberals have been able to avoid answering questions about how they will avoid painful spending cuts by saying that they will get rid of “waste”, and put the “leaners” back to work. There’s a great opportunity now for the ALP to turn the tables by saying they will deal with the budget problems by sorting out the tax bludgers, and make everyone pay their fair share (starting, I hope, with the parasites on farms who launder their money through family trusts).

  47. Sir sustainable future

    [SNIP: I considered letting this through on the grounds that it was too stupid to be offensive, but article 11 is one comment moderation guideline I am obliged to take seriously. Sad after you put all that effort into it, but really, it serves you right.]

    yeah – my tongue was firmly in the cheek (& that should have been clear surely?), and I think was an interesting proposition. You are of course the ultimate (and increasingly dictatorial) arbitrator of ‘debate’ and it is much less ‘stupid’ to concentrate on rooly important issues such as which is less crap JJJ or JJ, which seems to be you main concern tonight. (& for the record – They are both largely crap – anything that leads to Missy Higgins or the Whitlams getting air play is just wrong – if you have access to 3RRR or 3PBS – both now streamable so you do, just don’t bother with the Js). Of course, piss-take observations/ponderings that the current political and murdoch media situation in australia has a pacifist understanding the rein of terror and the bolsheviks is sooooo stupid compared to such a vital debate. Stupid is a two way street, and anyone who thinks JJJ is good probably shouldn’t be throwing too many stones.

  48. adrian

    That’s true Just Me, and I think that it’s a particularly good time for music at the moment. And I’m old enough to almost remember the 60s.

  49. Rossmore

    Oh Sir Sustainable, I happen to think Triple J is well worth defending, just like the ringtail possum, public holidays, a fair go, lamb roasts, the Carlton Football Club and any number of other cultural and natural phenomena in this great sunburnt land.

  50. jules

    Billie every little bit helps – no one gets anything worthwhile done on their own so thanks for helping make melbourne life more bearable. Anyway – was that the radio station at RMIT?

  51. jules

    Carlton football club???

    Good luck Friday night pal – you’ll need it.

  52. Bushfire Bill

    Can’t beat Rach-II… either symphony or concerto.

  53. deblonay

    Senator Leyonjhelm…am I right in thinking he is making himself readily available to the media and getting a a great deal of coverage for his libertarian views ?

  54. Rossmore

    Jules, I know, but our day will come… And the natural order restored…

  55. Jolyon Wagg

    Some more real music…

    Brecker Brothers + Mike Stern — Spherical

    If you’re enjoyment of music is limited to guitar start at 3.20.

  56. Just Me

    adrian

    I think it is a great time for music. We have never had such diversity and quality and availability of music before in human history.

    Music is doing fine. Enjoy it. 🙂

  57. Dan Gulberry

    jules

    I had the pleasure of seeing PTree twice (2008 and 2010) at the Enmore Theatre in Sydney. Great band live, and in the studio as well.

    A sort of cross between Pink Floyd and Nirvana, with a bit of Beatles thrown in.

    Check out more of their stuff on YouTube. Highly recommended.

  58. deblonay

    Counterpunch looks at the way US influence around the world is evaporating ,even amongst its’ allies like the Germans

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/07/16/obamas-influence-abroad-is-evaporating/

  59. William Bowe

    SSF, whatever you might think of the JJJ discussion, nobody who has contributed to it has actually broken the law, as you were most certainly doing with your earlier comment. Worse, in leaving it on a blog for which I am responsible, you were causing me to break the law as well. This is a risk that I take in allowing my blog to operate without pre-moderation, and if it’s going to function, I have to require that commenters here be less – yes, there really is only one word for it – stupid.

  60. Sir sustainable future

    Rossmore – I’ll defend JJJ and JJ too – the Unearthed work is vital to Australian culture – even if it does throw up Missy Higgins from time to time. I was making a point re: William’s priorities and increasing stridency re: the rules he keeps making up. It is toy and he let’s us play here, so that’s OK (& I think all his rules have good foundation so long as they are not applied to me :)), but snipping and calling someone stupid seemed an over-reaction, particularly when I suspect what he find most ‘offensive’ is any criticism of the ALP right from the left. (& speaking of offensive, is anyone else getting a ‘Best Cure of Nail Fungus’ graphic add on this site, or has my age simply tripped some ‘post old man ads on webpages for this bloke’ function of the web?).

  61. jules

    Rossmore given the Roos’ form this your you lot are a chance to win by 10 goals.

  62. Sir sustainable future

    William – anybody who could have interpreted my post as inciting violence would be drawing a long bow – but point taken.

  63. jules

    This your? … surely that”s really ‘this year’.

  64. caf

    Saying you don’t like JJJ probably gets you Nail Fungus ads.

    Just sayin’

  65. Sir sustainable future

    caf

    [Saying you don’t like JJJ probably gets you Nail Fungus ads.

    Just sayin’]

    yeah, but probably gets you a better playlist on spotify.

  66. deblonay

    Yhe comi ng of a super El Nino ???
    ____________________

    The BoM 12 monthly (1 by 12)forecast for SE Aust… says that every month from now till June 2015 will be below average rain with most month recording less than 20% per month…the coming spring/early summer rainfall will be catastrophic and one wonders if global warming is going to accelerate the effect of an El Nino ,which seems on the way …in spades
    and am El Nino always brings political and social effects…a big rise in food prices this summer/much increased energy consumption because the drought will be accompanied by high costs for power due to very high temps… how will Abbott cope with that and farmers demands for huge economic help as the drought worsens over the summer
    In Vic so far the Wimmera/Mallee wheat belt areas have had very little winter rains…none of any substance and I think the same is the case in Western NSW…

  67. William Bowe

    For the record, for the period going back to May 3 (i.e. the last time I had occasion to sin-bin ShowsOn, who seems to enjoy it), I have imposed zero bannings, and have deleted five comments and edited six out of a total of 53,094, for an overall kill ratio of 0.011301%.

  68. jules

    Speaking of Niall fungus

  69. DisplayName

    A scary person.

  70. Sir sustainable future

    Deblonay – how recent is that BoM post? my understanding is the el nino has weakened, and we might even be in for an increasingly rare bumper year (the farmers maths/odd used to be 2 great years in 10, 2 good, 1 bad, 1 appalling and the rest average – and they could survive on that – now it is 2 bad years in 5, 1 appalling, 2 average, so a bumper year would be a treat) – it is certainly looking good in vic at present, although it’s a long way from any grain being in silo and a dry finish would do it the very good looking crops we see at present. with a good break in much of Victoria, farmers have sown every inch they can and borrowed every penny they could to do so, so a bad finish will be fatal for many.

    I hope the forces of good are careful with dire predictions – nothing gives the Bolts of the world greater pleasure than saying ‘they said there’d be record drought and there were record floods instead’ – their misinterpretation of Flannery’s comments re: dry dams was/is appalling (he prefaced the comment with ‘Unless we get above average rainfall,…’ but they only cite his as saying Sydney would (he actually said ‘might’) run out of water.

    part of me would like to see an el nino to wake Australians up, but a big drought here tends to mean floods and landslides in chile that can kill 100s, so I’m glad to have heard it is weakening.

  71. Sir sustainable future

    [For the record, for the period going back to May 3 (i.e. the last time I had occasion to sin-bin ShowsOn, who seems to enjoy it), I have imposed zero bannings, and have deleted five comments and edited six out of a total of 53,094, for an overall kill ratio of 0.011301%.]

    Ok – now I feel special. (and a tad stupid)

  72. jules

    A bad El Nino might kill hundreds here too ssf.

    I kind of agree with your sentiment tho, cos Australia needs a seriously dry summer to properly focus its attention on the consequences of our current govt policies. Its really dry where I live. Often is at this time of year, but its drier than its been for 11 years and at least as dry as the middle of the last big El Nino drought.

  73. briefly

    As one who depends almost completely on ABC radio – especially Classic FM – the idea that JJJ might be closed or sold just sounds insane. ABC radio is an almost irreplaceable cultural resource. For mine, there are few things more valuable than music broadcasts and we would be better off if there was a lot more of it rather than a lot less.

  74. Bushfire Bill

    [NASA predicts finding evidence of extraterrestrial life within 20 years
    NASA scientists predict they are within 20 years of finding the evidence proving we are not alone in the universe.

    Dr Sara Seager and Matt Mountain were two of the distinguished scientists, former astronauts and engineers brought together by NASA.

    They say scientific advances in rocket technology and space telescopes will soon make it possible to scan the heavens for the tell-tale signs of life on a planet not unlike our own, their so-called Earth 2.0.

    But evidence of alien life might also be relatively close to home.

    NASA is also making plans to send an unmanned probe to one of Jupiter’s moons Europa, where oceans of water are believed to lie below its surface, theoretically capable of supporting life.

    “And just look at Canberra, ACT, where there are some disturbing signs that aliens already walk among us,” one scientist said.

    “These are the most exciting discoveries we have made thus far, and confidence is high. The gait of Tony Abbott is a dead giveaway that inside his outwardly human form a lizard person is lurking, ready to strike”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-16/nasa-predicts-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-within-20-years/5602644 ]

  75. William Bowe

    Quiz time! Going on median family income, which always seems to me the measure that best compares like with like, what is Australia’s wealthiest state electorate?

  76. Fulvio Sammut

    Cottesloe?

  77. zoidlord

    Isn’t using median measure specifically, wrong? bit like median speeds like mybroadband website?

  78. William Bowe

    [Cottesloe?]

    Number four, so close but no cigar.

    [Isn’t using median measure specifically, wrong? ]

    When you’ve got a large dataset with a potential for the distribution to be skewed (i.e. big clumps at the very low or very high end potentially affecting the mean), median is favoured. You rarely hear anyone talk about “mean house price”, for instance.

  79. mari

    William

    Wentworth Malcolm Turnbull’s seat?

  80. William Bowe

    That I believe is the wealthiest federal electorate, Mari, but I’m after state electorates.

  81. William Bowe

    You could have said Vaucluse though, which is the wealthiest part of the wealthiest federal electorate. But alas, that would only have got you to number five, one place behind Cottesloe.

  82. William Bowe

    Actually, I see Cottesloe and Vaucluse are tied for number four on $2658.

  83. mari

    William

    Vaucluse then ?

  84. mari

    William

    My final guess Bradfield?

  85. William Bowe

    Another federal electorate! But one overlapping the state seats of Ku-ring-gai and Davidson, if that helps you at all.

  86. mari

    As most of my old bosses lived in Davidson will go for that one “grin”

  87. William Bowe

    Number seven. And Ku-ring-gai is number 11, to spare you the effort.

  88. mari

    Final one

    Kew in Victoria I think is state Kooyong is Federal???

  89. William Bowe

    That’s right, Mari. But it turns out the battlers of Struggle Street in Kew are doing it tough, being placed only at number 21 (out of 427).

  90. Otiose

    Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Budget2014, #JoHo, Man on as Ledge, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1nwYNrV

  91. mari

    William

    Put me out of my misery then what is it? Will rush out and buy a house as soon as I get back to Australia 😀 Then I will let you go to bed!!! Did all my guesses without resorting to the internet either

  92. William Bowe

    [Will rush out and buy a house as soon as I get back to Australia]

    But don’t do it in Pilbara, even if it is, indeed, Australia’s wealthiest state electorate.

  93. William Bowe

    Or at least, it was at the time of the 2011 census. Things may have cooled off since then.

  94. mari

    wondered about the mining electorates, but wonder how much longer??? Night Night William only 6.50pm here and the sun will be up for another 3 hours yet

  95. Raaraa

    I think Hawthorn is among the top up there but can’t be too sure it’s there.

    Also admittedly, the only reason why Triple J is on top of my list is that at least I can avoid that “Frank Waler, National Tiles” ad.

    Back in Brisbane in my uni days, I listen to the local community radio on AM, Switch, which I believe is one of the few youth radio stations on the AM. I got reminded of this when I was listening to local 774 and a work mate went and said, “What are you, some old man?”

    I resent that remark.

  96. William Bowe

    The top ten:

    Pilbara, WA 2888
    North Shore, NSW 2792
    Nedlands, WA 2674
    Cottesloe, WA 2658
    Vaucluse, NSW 2658
    Balmain, NSW 2636
    Davidson, NSW 2624
    Hawthorn, Vic 2583
    Churchlands, WA 2564
    Malvern, Vic 2555

  97. Boerwar

    William

    [Quiz time! Going on median family income, which always seems to me the measure that best compares like with like, what is Australia’s wealthiest state electorate?]

    I am curious about Australia’s ten least wealthy state electorates.