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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 15, 2014

Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

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The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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886 comments

886 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

  1. caf

    [Saying you don’t like JJJ probably gets you Nail Fungus ads.

    Just sayin’]

    yeah, but probably gets you a better playlist on spotify.

  2. Yhe comi ng of a super El Nino ???
    ____________________

    The BoM 12 monthly (1 by 12)forecast for SE Aust… says that every month from now till June 2015 will be below average rain with most month recording less than 20% per month…the coming spring/early summer rainfall will be catastrophic and one wonders if global warming is going to accelerate the effect of an El Nino ,which seems on the way …in spades
    and am El Nino always brings political and social effects…a big rise in food prices this summer/much increased energy consumption because the drought will be accompanied by high costs for power due to very high temps… how will Abbott cope with that and farmers demands for huge economic help as the drought worsens over the summer
    In Vic so far the Wimmera/Mallee wheat belt areas have had very little winter rains…none of any substance and I think the same is the case in Western NSW…

  3. For the record, for the period going back to May 3 (i.e. the last time I had occasion to sin-bin ShowsOn, who seems to enjoy it), I have imposed zero bannings, and have deleted five comments and edited six out of a total of 53,094, for an overall kill ratio of 0.011301%.

  4. Deblonay – how recent is that BoM post? my understanding is the el nino has weakened, and we might even be in for an increasingly rare bumper year (the farmers maths/odd used to be 2 great years in 10, 2 good, 1 bad, 1 appalling and the rest average – and they could survive on that – now it is 2 bad years in 5, 1 appalling, 2 average, so a bumper year would be a treat) – it is certainly looking good in vic at present, although it’s a long way from any grain being in silo and a dry finish would do it the very good looking crops we see at present. with a good break in much of Victoria, farmers have sown every inch they can and borrowed every penny they could to do so, so a bad finish will be fatal for many.

    I hope the forces of good are careful with dire predictions – nothing gives the Bolts of the world greater pleasure than saying ‘they said there’d be record drought and there were record floods instead’ – their misinterpretation of Flannery’s comments re: dry dams was/is appalling (he prefaced the comment with ‘Unless we get above average rainfall,…’ but they only cite his as saying Sydney would (he actually said ‘might’) run out of water.

    part of me would like to see an el nino to wake Australians up, but a big drought here tends to mean floods and landslides in chile that can kill 100s, so I’m glad to have heard it is weakening.

  5. [For the record, for the period going back to May 3 (i.e. the last time I had occasion to sin-bin ShowsOn, who seems to enjoy it), I have imposed zero bannings, and have deleted five comments and edited six out of a total of 53,094, for an overall kill ratio of 0.011301%.]

    Ok – now I feel special. (and a tad stupid)

  6. A bad El Nino might kill hundreds here too ssf.

    I kind of agree with your sentiment tho, cos Australia needs a seriously dry summer to properly focus its attention on the consequences of our current govt policies. Its really dry where I live. Often is at this time of year, but its drier than its been for 11 years and at least as dry as the middle of the last big El Nino drought.

  7. As one who depends almost completely on ABC radio – especially Classic FM – the idea that JJJ might be closed or sold just sounds insane. ABC radio is an almost irreplaceable cultural resource. For mine, there are few things more valuable than music broadcasts and we would be better off if there was a lot more of it rather than a lot less.

  8. [NASA predicts finding evidence of extraterrestrial life within 20 years
    NASA scientists predict they are within 20 years of finding the evidence proving we are not alone in the universe.

    Dr Sara Seager and Matt Mountain were two of the distinguished scientists, former astronauts and engineers brought together by NASA.

    They say scientific advances in rocket technology and space telescopes will soon make it possible to scan the heavens for the tell-tale signs of life on a planet not unlike our own, their so-called Earth 2.0.

    But evidence of alien life might also be relatively close to home.

    NASA is also making plans to send an unmanned probe to one of Jupiter’s moons Europa, where oceans of water are believed to lie below its surface, theoretically capable of supporting life.

    “And just look at Canberra, ACT, where there are some disturbing signs that aliens already walk among us,” one scientist said.

    “These are the most exciting discoveries we have made thus far, and confidence is high. The gait of Tony Abbott is a dead giveaway that inside his outwardly human form a lizard person is lurking, ready to strike”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-16/nasa-predicts-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-within-20-years/5602644 ]

  9. [Cottesloe?]

    Number four, so close but no cigar.

    [Isn’t using median measure specifically, wrong? ]

    When you’ve got a large dataset with a potential for the distribution to be skewed (i.e. big clumps at the very low or very high end potentially affecting the mean), median is favoured. You rarely hear anyone talk about “mean house price”, for instance.

  10. You could have said Vaucluse though, which is the wealthiest part of the wealthiest federal electorate. But alas, that would only have got you to number five, one place behind Cottesloe.

  11. William

    Put me out of my misery then what is it? Will rush out and buy a house as soon as I get back to Australia 😀 Then I will let you go to bed!!! Did all my guesses without resorting to the internet either

  12. wondered about the mining electorates, but wonder how much longer??? Night Night William only 6.50pm here and the sun will be up for another 3 hours yet

  13. I think Hawthorn is among the top up there but can’t be too sure it’s there.

    Also admittedly, the only reason why Triple J is on top of my list is that at least I can avoid that “Frank Waler, National Tiles” ad.

    Back in Brisbane in my uni days, I listen to the local community radio on AM, Switch, which I believe is one of the few youth radio stations on the AM. I got reminded of this when I was listening to local 774 and a work mate went and said, “What are you, some old man?”

    I resent that remark.

  14. The top ten:

    Pilbara, WA 2888
    North Shore, NSW 2792
    Nedlands, WA 2674
    Cottesloe, WA 2658
    Vaucluse, NSW 2658
    Balmain, NSW 2636
    Davidson, NSW 2624
    Hawthorn, Vic 2583
    Churchlands, WA 2564
    Malvern, Vic 2555

  15. William

    [Quiz time! Going on median family income, which always seems to me the measure that best compares like with like, what is Australia’s wealthiest state electorate?]

    I am curious about Australia’s ten least wealthy state electorates.