tip off

Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

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  • 101
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    Re WA Labor mentioned on page 1, it got mostly overlooked in the Eastern States, but the WA ALP have changed their pre-selection process.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-06/wa-labor-approves-reforms-for-more-democratic-pre-selections/5575066

    WA Labor passes reforms for more democratic preselection process
    Updated Sun 6 Jul 2014, 11:45am AEST

    The WA Labor Party has passed a set of reforms to make preselection more democratic and, it hopes, to better appeal to voters.

    The measures were prompted in part by Labor's poor performance at the state and federal elections, and the damaging fallout from the WA Senate re-run.

    Its not made clear in this article but I understand the changes apply to the House Of Reps (50% members vote) & Senate (25%) as well as state preselections.

  • 102
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes@97

    bemused


    Resorting to straw men?


    Not at all.

    I’m wondering how else you can explain Baden-Clay plugging his phone in another room and having scratches on his face while having no memory of either.

    Well the 2 are unrelated of course and I had some suggestions earlier about the scratches.

    What I am puzzled about is how the cops investigating the Jill Meagher case were able to track where her murder had been through his phone. So why wasn’t such evidence presented in this case? They just had to put him near where the body was found and case closed.

    Instead they have him plugging his phone into its charger in the house in the middle of the night. Doesn’t show much at all.

  • 103
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    Rex Douglas@100

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-15/barwon-prison-boss-david-prideaux-disappearance-not-suspicious/5597378

    The high level coverups in Victoria continue with no sign of a whistleblower anywhere to be seen…

    Yep, 2 bodies found buried in the snow after a couple of days this week and how many years has Prideaux been missing without a trace found?

    But hey, I am not a coroner.

  • 104
    JimmyDoyle
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    Leroy Lynch @ 101 that’s great progress. Bit by bit Labor is reforming

  • 105
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    @political_alert: Industry Super Australia says FoFA deal leaves consumers at risk: https://t.co/jTjsDCYXaL #auspol

  • 106
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    He didn’t take the phone with him.

    And plugging in a phone in another room at 2am is highly significant.

  • 107
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    As I understand it, if there is actual activity on your phone, i.e. you make or receive a call or message, said activity can be linked to the local transmission tower. No phone activity, no evidence of your location.

  • 108
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes@106

    bemused

    He didn’t take the phone with him.

    And plugging in a phone in another room at 2am is highly significant.

    How so? It is evidence that he plugged his phone into the charger at 2:00am. Anything beyond that is inference.

  • 109
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    WB

    Correct. That includes phone pinginging tower on a regular basis when you are not using it which is why in TV and movies you turn the phone off. Also to ensure no tracking removing SIM helps

  • 110
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    William Bowe@107

    As I understand it, if there is actual activity on your phone, i.e. you make or receive a call or message, said activity can be linked to the local transmission tower. No phone activity, no evidence of your location.

    Not so.

    In addition to that, phones periodically connect with phone towers so that you can have a seamless connection if on the move and going from one cell to another.

    It is a background thing the user is unaware of and was the undoing of Jill Meagher’s killer.

  • 111
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    It seems Palmer has pissed off Seniors who he refused to meet today and Choice. Is he trying to follow Tony and piss off everyone or does he need a Bank loan?

  • 112
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    WB

    As I understand it, if there is actual activity on your phone, i.e. you make or receive a call or message, said activity can be linked to the local transmission tower. No phone activity, no evidence of your location.

    That’s not the case.

    Your mobile phone continually sends out pings whether you are making a call or not. They tracked Jill Meaghers mobile phone and found a spot where it went under CCTV and worked out whose car it was in.

    They also identified her Vodafone mobile phone details, and tracked the phone's movement on that morning.

    According to the police summary: "The recorded movement indicated that (Ms Meagher's) mobile phone had remained in the Brunswick area until 4.24am, when it began to record movement outside the Brunswick area.

    "After analysing the recorded movements it was discovered that (Ms Meagher's) mobile was moving north along CityLink in the vicinity of Moreland Rd at 4.40am and then continued north along the Calder Freeway to Sunbury."

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/jill-meaghers-mobile-phone-proved-the-vital-clue-for-police-tracking-down-accused-adrian-ernest-bayley/story-fnat79vb-1226596495389

  • 113
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    It depends on definition of active. For phone to be inactive it has to be turned off not on standby.

  • 114
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    Retweeted by Greens
    Emma Bull ‏@bull_em 54m

    Seems Abetz & Palmer stitched up deal for Senate to sit late Tues, Thur & Fri for carbon, privatisation, MRRT, qantas, land transport bills

  • 115
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    Actually, that does sound right now you mention it, Bemused. So could the failure of phone evidence to be tendered in the Baden-Clay case be because it was switched off?

  • 116
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    If the phone battery was flat, when it was placed on the charger it would have connected to the nearest tower when there was enough power to do so.

  • 117
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@113

    bemused

    It depends on definition of active. For phone to be inactive it has to be turned off not on standby.

    I said nothing about that.

  • 118
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    diog

    As for charging that is not significant. You can have phones on a charger when they are at 100% using the mains to run the standby.

  • 119
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    Bemused

    Give up

    A jury sat though two and a bit weeks of evidence and came up with guilty.

    The phone is just of many things for which Baden-Clay did not have an explanation.

    The man is a liar and a philanderer and now a murderer. He is not worth your valuable time

  • 120
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    William Bowe@115

    Actually, that does sound right now you mention it, Bemused. So could the failure of phone evidence to be tendered in the Baden-Clay case be because it was switched off?

    Or perhaps he just left it at home.

    The case just, to me, lacks the neat closure of the Meagher case although, on balance of probability, I think he did it.

  • 121
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    All of the evidence was circumstantial but it was overwhelming.

    They also found her blood DNA in the car boot and her hair had six types of leaves on it, which grew at her property but not at the site she was found.

  • 122
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg@119

    Bemused

    Give up

    A jury sat though two and a bit weeks of evidence and came up with guilty.

    The phone is just of many things for which Baden-Clay did not have an explanation.

    The man is a liar and a philanderer and now a murderer. He is not worth your valuable time

    See my 120.

    I have a tidy mind and this is untidy. :D

  • 123
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    Ross is right. We have jury trials for good reason. There has been no suggestion of an appeal I have heard of.

    I think that speaks for itself.

  • 124
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    Labor has to win the next election, then call a DD and get rid of all these right-wing swine in the Senate.

    But how do you ensure that no more right wing swine will be re-elected? Easier said than done

  • 125
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    Palmer has made a deal to let watering of Fofa down.

  • 126
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Senator Dastaryi sopt on with his attack on PUP over Fofa.

  • 127
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    If the cellular data is switched off, smartphones won’t communicate to the outside world.

    Otherwise smartphones communicate with the manufacturer many times daily.

    Bemused Comrade

    More evidence just on Ch 9 news. Pics of scratches on B-C’s chest as well. Hadn’t heard of that evidence till now.

    And close-up of face abrasions also on Ch 9 shows the major scratch with an elongated “c” shape on the top two thirds, and a reverse “c” shape on the bottom one third. No wonder the experts said they were not razor cuts.

    Guilty as sin.

  • 128
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes@121

    bemused

    All of the evidence was circumstantial but it was overwhelming.

    They also found her blood DNA in the car boot and her hair had six types of leaves on it, which grew at her property but not at the site she was found.

    Well, it was the family car wasn’t it.

    And is it suggested she was dragged around the yard or something? She could just have easily wandered around the yard in a dazed state.

    All this stuff seems to have alternative innocent explanations and lacks the real clincher.

    It clears the balance of probability hurdle with me, but criminal cases require a bit more.

    Yes, he was not a very noble character either. A lot of law abiding people aren’t nice either.

  • 129
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@123

    bemused

    Ross is right. We have jury trials for good reason. There has been no suggestion of an appeal I have heard of.

    I think that speaks for itself.

    An ABC reporter said it was likely.

  • 130
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    To be precise, two of the species did grow at the recovery site.

  • 131
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    Oh missed that. So we will see then.

    An appeal will list directly which areas of law and its process was not followed.

  • 132
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    Bemused

    The abc reported an appeal is likely? A few contributors on here would not set much store by that.

  • 133
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@131

    bemused

    Oh missed that. So we will see then.

    An appeal will list directly which areas of law and its process was not followed.

    The other part of the reporters statement was that in such a long case the possibility of errors is considerable and the lawyers would be examining the transcript carefully.

  • 134
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 43s

    i don’t know if this is shopped or not, but it sums up the week so far #auspol

  • 135
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Anyway, I am sick of Bayden-Clay and am not saying anything further.

  • 136
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    Bemused Comrade

    As others have pointed out, there are numerous pieces of evidence each consistent with the others.

    Did you see BB’s link to a summary a few pages back (here or maybe on last thread towards end).

    I too have a “tidy” mind. I am always very suspicious of popular opinion about court cases, invariably based on shock jock and tabloid info. The highly publicised ones are often the unpopular acquittals and unpopular sentences.

    It is altogether a different thing to sit and hear the totality of the evidence.

    Unless there was some as yet unknown miscarriage of justice (say of the level of perversion of justice by a cop fabricating evidence) I think any appeal will be pissing into the wind.

  • 137
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

    I couldn’t believe my ears in QT when I tuned in to the TV in the background and heard Pyne actually launching the 2016 campaign.

    He was describing what will be both parties’ policies and speaking as though the election was in a couple of months time.

  • 138
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    @political_alert: Government motion to extend Senate sitting hours this week has been agreed to 48-10, details here: http://t.co/qwYwoMDmrr #auspol

  • 139
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Maybe the Libs have secretly decide to shoot for the DD and are trying to prime the voters.

  • 140
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Stephen Long ‏@StephenLongAus 5m

    I too suffered brutal corporal punishment. This worries me: http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/government-expert-kevin-donnelly-backs-corporal-punishment-in-schools/story-fn59nlz9-1226990081268?sv=204624ba9043997f982d724e18bee441&nk=e81a0334845089b5b4308df47b41cc82 … @Colvinius

    1500′s is back in town.

  • 141
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    @lenoretaylor: PUP deal allows government to save its financial advice regulations http://t.co/Ultv8oCzSm via @guardian

  • 142
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    Retweeted by Greens
    Christine Milne ‏@senatormilne 3m

    Government and Palmer have done deal to abolish carbon price and save big polluters like Clive’s Qld Nickel $18b over forward estimates.

  • 143
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    What a farquit and what a lesson in how to solve disputes.

    Dr Donnelly,...... the most effective punishment at his school in Broadmeadows in Melbourne’s northern suburbs was meted out by a Scottish physical education teacher who invited boys “to throw the first punch”.

  • 144
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    Clive has an agreement that the Govt will introduce new FoFA regs within 90 days. What happens if they forget?

  • 145
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    @poroti/143

    Dr Donnelly must be one who watches too much Hollywood TV, and thinks, nothing wrong with throwing punches.

  • 146
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw@136

    Bemused Comrade

    Unless there was some as yet unknown miscarriage of justice (say of the level of perversion of justice by a cop fabricating evidence) I think any appeal will be pissing into the wind.

    I can assure you that such practices are SOP from personal experience.

  • 147
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    Righto – current guidance from both the Coalition and from Labor is the definitive vote on carbon repeal is very unlikely tonight. There are no gags or time limits imposed in the new order of business.

    They are off to dinner soon, I wonder what they will decide on a full stomach?

  • 148
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Just Me

    You may be right. Guess we shouldn’t be surprised that elections are on their minds as a consideration, since the budget and their fixing of the economy is far up the creek n without a hint of a paddle on the horizon.

  • 149
    Steven Grant Haby
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    With all due respect to everyone

    Can we please cease and desist with the commentary regarding the Baden-Clay case.

    It is not appropriate to speculate at this point in time as to what / if / anything / did / occur / happen

    This is from a friend of mine who is associated with this issue.

  • 150
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    If Labor and the LNP want to reform the Senate voting, the time to do it is just before the next election so they minimise the damage the micros can do by going feral.

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