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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 17, 2014

BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

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This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2046 comments

2,046 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

  1. victoria@1990

    Goodness me . You cant get this man off our screens at the moment


    A not to be missed #insiders tomorrow. @frankellyabc to interview PM @TonyAbbottMHR. Panel: @lenoretaylor, Gerard Henderson & @PhillipCoorey

    I hope Fran has picked up a few pointers on interviewing from Sarah Ferguson.

  2. Rossmore@2000

    No doubt Abbott will get a poll boost from recent events. Its a gift horse for the LNP. But I cant see it as a game changer and when this settles expect the poor polling to resume….

    Normally, I would agree.

    But in Abbott’s case I am not so sure.

  3. I think the ‘crises reinforce incumbents/conservatives’ idea is way overvalued. I think it gives leaders opportunities but whether they can be taken depends on both the strategic political situation and the leader’s performance. Both Bligh and Brumby were widely thought to have responded well to disaster but it did not stick in the long term polling; in contrast Howard’s recovery in 2001 had started well before 9/11. (I have long maintained that the Fuel Excise backflip was the *real* ‘Tampa moment’.)

  4. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0718/The-BUK-Weapon-that-brought-down-MH17
    [The BUK: Weapon that brought down MH17?
    Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 is widely believed to have been shot down with the Soviet-era BUK anti-aircraft system – a complex, but still widely used and effective weapon.
    By Fred Weir, Correspondent July 18, 2014

    Moscow — There is still no agreement over who may have destroyed Malaysia Air Flight MH17, but there is an emerging consensus about what did it: a mobile Soviet-era air defense missile system known as BUK.

    …………….

    “Trained officers need at least 6 months of additional training to run a BUK system. It needs a whole, well prepared team to make it work.”

    But analysts point out that plenty of the Russian volunteers who’ve been coming across the border to fight alongside Ukrainian rebels have military experience, while insurgent ranks have also been filled out with defectors from Ukraine’s military.]

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118131/week-battlefields-ukraine
    [June 16, 2014
    My Mind-Melting Week on the Battlefields of Ukraine
    Death and disappearance in the foggiest of wars
    By Julia Ioffe

    ne morning in May, my photographer Max and I hired a driver and set off for the quiet, terrified countryside around the city of Donetsk in search of clarity. After a week in Ukraine, we had discovered that it was impossible to understand what was happening in this restive region from Washington, Moscow, or Kiev, and equally impossible from Donetsk: There was one building besieged by separatists, surrounded by a calm and indifferent city.

    ………………

    If there were any Russians in the group—as Kiev alleges—I couldn’t tell. Most of the men were masked and refused to talk. The ones who did were either locals or mercenaries from South Ossetia. (Russia fought a war to support their bid to secede from Georgia in 2008.) Everyone seemed to have a different uniform with a different homemade insignia and a different gun. Many were in sneakers. They were not the fighting force of the Donetsk People’s Republic, nor were they affiliated with the fighters in Slavyansk, another rebel stronghold. Perhaps the only thing I could ascertain that afternoon was that what had started as a Russian geopolitical gambit had evolved into something else entirely.

    For all the reports that these fighters were cynical Russian puppets, everyone seemed to have their own reason for being there. The area was flooded with war junkies, veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya for whom, ever after, nothing made as much sense as war. The Vostok men I spoke to seemed to be fighting for something very primal and very urgent. Many had left their jobs in order to, as they saw it, defend their women and children, their land from an onslaught of fascism from the West. Their stories became more and more lurid as the morning dragged on: The fascists had attacked women, they had attacked children; a building had caught on fire; no, it had exploded. The man with the tattoo was from the Donbass battalion, he was from Right Sector, he was a German sniper. There was only one thing they all agreed on: Their enemies had come to kill women and children as part of an anti-Russian genocide.]

  5. Re Libs and Foreign Affairs
    ________ The Libs have a long and dishonest history of exploiting foreign affairs for their advantage..and as a “scare”

    Communism was used to help defeat Chifley and Evatt ,and then the Vietnam was was used in 1966 to defeat Calwell at the hands of Holt

    They love foreign affairs elections as they distract the dumb voters…who are numerous…and that works out in suburbia…Australian being both fearful and fairly zenophbic..see also”asylum seekers ” et al

    I can rememer the”Vietnamese boats of the way” adv on TV in 1966…and John Howard did much the same over Tampa

    Of course Vietnam finally turned toxic when the voters worried about the conscription of their sons ,though only a minority worried about the Vietnamese being massacred in their tens of thousands…eventually in 1972 it cost them votes and power
    Howard was an expert as we know…could use a”threat” as well as Menzies..as we saw with Tampa

    In WW!…Billy “the rat “Hughes, made use of the Catholic Irish..then in an heroic revolt against the British and he attacked the Catholic Archbishop Mannix in Melb who led the fight against Conscription ,along with many on the left who did win too against this tactic
    but the Libs are experta at it..have no doubts

    I guess Newman and Abbott might prefer to lose the G20…despite all the expense…to run an anti-Putin camopaign…and they might do well out of it too

  6. [there is a very high probability that rebels in the East of Ukraine close to the Russian border thought they were aiming at a Ukraine transport aircraft,]

    They seem to have thought it was an AN-26 which is a small turboprop transport about the same size as the Caribous operated by the RAAF until a few years ago. Just how someone can mistake a large 777 flying at 33,000ft at ~450 knots for plane a third its size with a maximum speed of about 260 kts is difficult to comprehend.

  7. The reports, from the first investigators that got to the sight and were told to leave after an hour with the added incentive of gunfire, were that the rebels were possibly drunk or under drug influence. This would may not assist them in selecting the correct plane to shoot at.

  8. Fin Review re G20
    ___________
    The Fin.Review said that the G20 trade minister are meeting this weekend in Sydney

    Abbott made his comment about barring Russia…it seems… to the Russian Trade minister in Sydney yesterday..
    .
    This might account for the ABC report that Bishop was denied the right to speak to the Foreign Minister in Moscow in a phone call to the Russian Foreign Ministry and was told he was”on holidays” and nobody else was able to talk to her

    The Fin Review commented that any barring of a G20 mwmber would be very controversial and would be difficult to execute

    Knowing how Bishop and Abbott work it is all probably a thought bubble…off the top of their heads

    anyway Newman has got bigger worries tonight to think about

  9. [I think what the freedom fighters did to those 300 people could be called molestation.]

    There is another m word that describes it better

  10. [
    The reports, from the first investigators that got to the sight and were told to leave after an hour with the added incentive of gunfire, were that the rebels were possibly drunk or under drug influence. This would may not assist them in selecting the correct plane to shoot at.
    ]

    silmaj

    I saw this tweet from a reporter on the ground earlier

    [
    max seddon @maxseddon · 4h
    One of the rebels casually threatens to kneecap reporters every five minutes. Another is wearing a beekeeping suit and reeks of alcohol.
    ]

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon

  11. Slothy

    Not if they’re rank amateurs, recent recruits, or ill disciplined volunteers tending to rabble, even allowing your view that the two varieties of planes are distinguishable by sight at 33k feet even by lay persons.

  12. Bemused I wrote a long reply but sadly the gerbils ate my message. I don’t have the heart to write so many anti-LNP messages again. Suffice to say the polls reflect my feelings. Do I regret my votes though? No I am prepared to live with both my successes and mistakes.

  13. Three myths about the Carbon Tax

    Myth #1: It “didn’t actually help the environment”.

    Evidence: It reduced emissions by about 5%.
    https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2014-07/ccep1411.pdf

    Myth #2: It was “a $550 hit to families’ cost of living.”

    Evidence: The average household was better off. The price impact was half that expected; tax cuts and benefit increases were delivered in full.
    http://www.australianbusinessjournal.com.au/economists-attribute-inflation-spike-to-carbon-tax/

    Myth #3: It was “the world’s biggest carbon tax”

    Evidence: Australia’s Carbon Tax was one of the lowest carbon prices in the OECD.
    http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/taxation/taxing-energy-use_9789264183933-en#page14

  14. davidwh@2020

    Bemused I wrote a long reply but sadly the gerbils ate my message. I don’t have the heart to write so many anti-LNP messages again. Suffice to say the polls reflect my feelings. Do I regret my votes though? No I am prepared to live with both my successes and mistakes.

    Are you going to make your mum happy when you next vote? 😛

  15. http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-flaw-in-the-buk-missile-system-2014-7
    [This Flaw In The Buk Missile System Makes It Really Easy To Accidentally Shoot Down A Passenger Jet
    Armin Rosen Today at 7:41 AM

    Military experts think that a Buk missile — an easy-to-use type of anti-aircraft weapon — is the most likely culprit in the destruction of a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet that’s thought to have been shot down over eastern Ukraine.

    These missile launchers are specially created for hitting high-altitude aircraft, and can fire at targets of up to 80,000 feet.

    But unless linked to other weapons or an air traffic control system, they are almost incapable of telling the difference between military and civilian aircraft. The Buk is mobile, easy to use, and capable of hitting aircraft at all but the most outlandish altitudes. Yet as the MH17 disaster proves, that comes with a huge potential drawback, especially when the weapon is in the hands of people incapable of using it responsibly.]

  16. davidwh@2023

    I made my mum happy the last time I voted.

    In QLD I honestly don’t know at present. Neither side deserve my vote.

    A cop out.
    Difficult to imagine anyone worse than the incumbents.

  17. davidwh@2026

    Not a cop out. I still remember well the previous government and they deserve more than one term in opposition.

    Well Bligh and much of her cabinet is gone, including that arrogant twerp she had as a treasurer.

    I kinda think the point has been made.

  18. Bemused I’ll wait and see how many of the old Labor team get pre-selected before getting serious. Fraser may make a return yet.

  19. psyclaw @ 2019

    [Not if they’re rank amateurs, recent recruits, or ill disciplined volunteers tending to rabble, even allowing your view that the two varieties of planes are distinguishable by sight at 33k feet even by lay persons.]

    I doubt that these were rank amateurs. Despite the claims made in the article Leroy Lynch links to below, I do not think the local milkmen were operating the equipment. It would require more experience than that to operate the 3 vehicle system, according to some reports about 6 months training.

    Even if it can’t discriminate between aircraft on size, the altitude and especially speed of MH17 should have alerted the crew that the target wasn’t a AN-26.

  20. davidwh@2029

    Bemused I’ll wait and see how many of the old Labor team get pre-selected before getting serious. Fraser may make a return yet.

    Fraser is an idiot. He should go join the LNP where he would have plenty of company.

  21. Anyway regardless of who wins next year I think we will have a new premier. I can’t see Newman holding Ashgrove if he is still premier leading into the election. Hopefully the A-G will lose his seat as well.

  22. Davidwh

    I want the LNP to lose government. It will demonstrate that the tough budget in the first year and then electoral bribes in the election year do not work any more.

  23. Just got home from a 50th b’day party. It was great to see many from family and friends and yes, we spoke heaps about politics which I think can give me some sort of guide as to how the electorate in general may be thinking.

    The following were my findings:

    1. They all thought it was hilarious when I referred to Abbott as the Monkey.

    2. They thought the carbon tax beat up was all a load of shit.

    3. They all thought that the Greens are lunatics, yes, some chuckles when I referred to them as the Full Mooners.

    4. Guess what, they all, every one, likes Clive Palmer. Main reason given….they like the way he tells others off.

    So there you have it!

    Focus group done 😎

  24. 2035
    ))))))))Centre

    tbey seem easily amused

    Qhat did they think of great (3% swing) to the Greens in Gland today…have a laugh did they ?

  25. I have arrived at a conclusion as to whom is to blame for bombing that Malaysian plane?

    Putin.

    Nobody else would have the guts to act without his authority to bring down a passenger plane. Putin would have their marbles on a plate 😎

  26. deblonay

    Firstly, some were quite intelligent. Much more in touch with reality than the many L-OO-NS here.

    Secondly, they wouldn’t have had a clue or give a rats about some irrelevant local election somewhere or other.

    Hilarious, the Greenies are pleased with a performance in a barrier trial and they think they’re on track to get into government.

    Peak Puny, not long now 😎

  27. Centre Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 12:58 am @ 2037
    [I have arrived at a conclusion as to whom is to blame for bombing that Malaysian plane?

    Putin.

    Nobody else would have the guts to act without his authority to bring down a passenger plane. Putin would have their marbles on a plate 😎
    ]
    That might be the case if we assume they knew that they were shooting at a passenger jet. However, the intercepts released by the Ukrainian Government suggests that they thought it was a Ukrainian military plane. They’ve already shot down a number of those. I doubt they obtained Putin’s authorisation for each of the previous cases.

    All the indications seem to be that this was a massive cockup by the rebels.

  28. Another night, another CF of crazy comments.

    To those who asked why Malaysian Airlines flew that route, here is an infograph showing the flights prior to the crash

    http://i.imgur.com/WlMeqIY.jpg

    I wonder if ICAO by now have shut that corridor above 32000ft, but I’m sure many commercial airlines have stopped flying there.

    The BUK missiles is from the Soviet-era and I believe fly no faster than mach 3. The SR71 used to evade it by flying faster than it. Of course a commercial airliner has no hope against it. Neither did the pilots have seen it. It was probably fired from the rear of the aircraft, and the radar, meant for ground and weather, is facing the wrong way.

    The BUK launchers on the other hand have the ability to target aircraft by radar so the operators are no ameteurs but identification of target aircraft requires the supplementary support of either visual or radio identification.

    In 1988, the Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus 300 due to the misidentification of transponder codes and also miscommunication with the aircraft. Having identified the aircraft as “unindentified Iranian aircraft” flying at 350 knots, the crew of the Iranian aircraft thought the Americans were referring to another Iranian aircraft in the area as they were actually flying at 300 knots.

    This goes to show that even when competent crew was present and procedures followed, accidents happen.

    Nevertheless, this doesn’t make the death of nearly 300 people any less tragic.

  29. Putrid and the admin behind him is no different to other international war lords. They fail to do comprehensive What ifs before embarking on their games. In six months time the world will have moved on to more important money matters.

  30. Qld councils which were quick to pass on the carbon tax to ratepayers were now baulking at handing the money back.

    In 2012-13 Brisbane City Council said the tax was responsible for about $22 on the average bill; Ipswich City Council said it accounted for about $30 a year; and Redland City Council said it was a minimum of $17.50. This year, Gold Coast City Council said it was worth $14.60 on its bill.

    Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale said his city’s rates would not be reduced this year as a result of the tax being scrapped, despite council’s costs coming down as a result.

    Then we get to old “absorbing costs” chestnut, we will be seeing a lot of this one. Woolies and Qantas have already pulled it out of the bag of tricks

    a $17.50 hit to ratepayers from the carbon tax, Redland Mayor Karen Williams said her council had absorbed most of the extra costs for two years