Crikey



Stafford by-election: July 19

Update: July 18

Bumping this post to the top of the batting order ahead of the big day tomorrow. Developments:

• The main news story to emerge from the campaign has been the Courier-Mail’s revelation last Thursday that Labor candidate Anthony Lynham owed money to Queensland Health after it overpaid him amid a troubled rollout of its new payroll system. This led to Labor claims that the government had leaked private information against him, resulting in a fiery exchange between Campbell Newman and Annastacia Palaszczuk at en estimates committee hearing earlier this week.

• Tuesday’s estimates committee hearings also heard from acting Electoral Commissioner Yvette Zischke about the progress of the new voter identification regime at pre-polling. Zischke reported that few if any of the roughly 1200 voters who had cast pre-poll votes had failed to meet the requirement, remembering that any who do may still cast a declaration vote to be admitted to the count if the Electoral Commission deems the voter to be eligible.

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday reviewing the by-election, with a particular focus on its implications for Campbell Newman in his neighbouring electorate of Ashgrove.

• The normally reticent Antony Green told ABC Radio in Brisbane last week that he anticipated a decisive double-digit swing to Labor.

• Tune into Poll Bludger after 6pm tomorrow for live coverage of the results, and subscribe to Crikey for my post-match review on Monday.

Update: July 4

Palmer United has indeed declined a field of candidate, leaving a refreshingly straightforward field of four encompassing, in ballot paper order, Bob Andersen (Liberal National), Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First), Anne Boccabella (Greens) and Anthony Lynham (Labor). A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 632 respondents in the electorate, conducted on Tuesday night for the union-affiliated Workcover Protection Coalition, found strongly negative results for the government with respect to the Crime and Misconduct Commission, the appointment of Tim Carmody as the new Chief Justice and the performance of Jarrod Bleijie as Attorney-General, but unfortunately did not gauge voting intention.

Overview

With the final year of his term well under way, Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government faces a by-election in the inner northern suburbs seat of Stafford on July 19, now just under three weeks away. The election is of particular interest for two reasons – it will be the first test of the new voter identification laws that appear likely to be followed similar measures from the federal government, as I discussed in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday; and it takes place in an electorate neighbouring Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove, which I’ll have more to say about over the coming weeks. This is second by-election the government has faced this year, the first having been held on February 22 in the outer northern Brisbane seat of Redcliffe. This served the government with the unhappy precedent of a 17.2% swing to Labor and victory for its candidate Yvette D’Ath, who had herself been unseated as the member for the corresponding federal seat of Petrie the previous September.

Numbers indicate 2012 state election booth locations and the Liberal National Party two-party preferred vote. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

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Categories: Queensland By-Elections, Queensland Politics

39 Responses

Comments page: 1 |
  1. As far as I know William there has been no polling for this by election. Labor needs about 7.5 percent swing from memory.

    by roger bottomley on Jul 1, 2014 at 7:39 am

  2. Who would want to be the LNP candidate in this little minefield? Looks like another thrashing coming up for Newman.

    by Darn on Jul 1, 2014 at 9:06 am

  3. I hear the LNP are putting little or no money into Stafford, Jarrod Anderson is wondering why he was picked.

    by ruawake on Jul 1, 2014 at 4:50 pm

  4. Speaking recently to a local State MP(Labor) I was interested to note that he said that on regular weekend visits to local shopping centres to talk with passresby,the paramount issue…over all others..is the intense voter anger and deep dislike of Abbott
    In his considerable experience he has never encountered such personal dislike in his years as local member

    Is this happening elsewhere,,,than in suburban Melbourne ?

    by deblonay on Jul 1, 2014 at 6:43 pm

  5. a maxillofacial surgeon

    Y’ wot?

    by lefty e on Jul 1, 2014 at 6:51 pm

  6. Y’ wot?

    jaws and face

    by ruawake on Jul 1, 2014 at 6:53 pm

  7. I just read the absolutely-totally-completely unbiased Editorial in today’s “Courier-Mail”

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-latest-poll-figures-fail-to-tell-the-real-story-behind-newman-governments-achievements/story-fnihsr9v-1226972904793

    And there you have it – the current Queensland people in these polls are unfairly punishing Campbell Newman’s Governmnet, so what Queensland obviously needs is a new, different lot of people who WILL vote for him!

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 1, 2014 at 8:52 pm

  8. The latest polling showing Labor on 51% 2PP in Queensland should furnish Labor with sufficient support to easily account for the LNP margin in this seat.

    I’d guess the swing will be 10-15%.

    by Arrnea Stormbringer on Jul 2, 2014 at 9:00 pm

  9. ABC Sunshine Coast news reporting a new poll in Stafford with changes to the CMC and judicial appointments the reasons given for the LNPs losing position, no voting intention stated.

    Anyone heard about this?

    by ruawake on Jul 3, 2014 at 5:53 am

  10. ruawake: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-03/stafford-survey-predicts-big-swing-against-lnp/5568220

    by Peter Murphy on Jul 3, 2014 at 9:32 am

  11. Four candidates confirmed today (in ballot paper order):

    Andersen, Bob LNP
    Vincent, Sally-Anne FFP
    Boccabella, Anne GRN
    Lynham, Anthony ALP

    by docantk on Jul 3, 2014 at 2:17 pm

  12. Four candidates confirmed today (in ballot paper order):

    No PUP. Clive must be saving his pennies.

    by ruawake on Jul 3, 2014 at 7:07 pm

  13. Peter Murphy@10

    ruawake: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-03/stafford-survey-predicts-big-swing-against-lnp/5568220

    Pretty strange to do a poll like that and either not ask or not release voting intention figures. Predicting things indirectly from results to those kinds of questions is a very murky business.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 3, 2014 at 10:54 pm

  14. Arrnea Stormbringer@8

    The latest polling showing Labor on 51% 2PP in Queensland should furnish Labor with sufficient support to easily account for the LNP margin in this seat.

    I’d guess the swing will be 10-15%.

    The Newspoll isn’t really “the latest polling” – it’s a three-month aggregate, and with an outlying result at that.

    But I expect the same. Be interesting to see how high the FF vote is.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 3, 2014 at 10:55 pm

  15. Hmm ‘Boccabella”. Beautiful mouth… Let’s hope that’s right in figurative terms.

    ;-)

    by Fran Barlow on Jul 4, 2014 at 9:12 am

  16. The decision by the PUP not to contest is just bizarre – you have a state government that is on the nose and you have a ‘fledgling’ (OK, it is hard to associate Clive with anything fledgling) political party that is aiming to gain traction and momentum – just bizarre. The ALP are probably highly relieved as it now probably a shoo in.

    by blackburnpseph on Jul 4, 2014 at 1:05 pm

  17. Presumably PUP don’t think they would do well in an inner-city seat, probably with good reason, and that the result would be a bad advertisement for them.

    by William Bowe on Jul 4, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  18. Not sure William. PUP got between 5 and 8% in the Senate in Stafford, not far shy of its 10% overall. I’d think they are either organisationally immature (losing candidates don’t grow on trees) or realise their real impact is when they can blitz the airwaves to hoover up protest and swinging votes. Being a city seat there’s no tv or radio that can target that electorate.

    by Graeme on Jul 4, 2014 at 3:09 pm

  19. And in side-trivia yes Anne Boccabella has that name via Lorenzo, barrister and former SBS news reporter, of whom Whitlam once quipped ‘a fitting surname for a journalist’.

    by Graeme on Jul 4, 2014 at 3:13 pm

  20. Looks like the LNP HTV will be a Donkey vote and the ALP HTV will be a reverse Donkey. :)

    by ruawake on Jul 4, 2014 at 5:55 pm

  21. Fran

    Anne Bocabella does indeed have a “beautiful” mouth and can talk the leg off a post, which she does to good effect in her small business which has been going for many years (at least 20). She is not young (must be 65+).

    by daretotread on Jul 6, 2014 at 6:46 pm

  22. Not quite heartland territory but still generally solid Labor territory only in reach of LNP at high-water tides. I confidently expect reversion to the mean, and then some.

    by Martin B on Jul 18, 2014 at 9:00 pm

  23. Surely in Newman’s favour must be the fact that the only people who get the vote are Queenslanders…….

    by swamprat on Jul 18, 2014 at 10:16 pm

  24. Surely in Newman’s favour must be the fact that the only people who get the vote are Queenslanders……

    The LNP and FF Candidates for Stafford don’t get a vote. ;) They don’t live in the electorate.

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:34 am

  25. On polling the Newman government looks likely to lose another seat, this time a middle class one of the type they need to retain. A loss here would be far worse than at Redcliffe. This seat is not safe Labor, it is well educated and undergoing inner redevelopment, marginal at best. Looking at the location and demographics, it bears more than a passing resemblance to Newman’s own neighboring seat of Ashgrove. Bye Campbell.

    by Socrates on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:43 am

  26. Socrates@25

    On polling the Newman government looks likely to lose another seat, this time a middle class one of the type they need to retain. A loss here would be far worse than at Redcliffe. This seat is not safe Labor, it is well educated and undergoing inner redevelopment, marginal at best. Looking at the location and demographics, it bears more than a passing resemblance to Newman’s own neighboring seat of Ashgrove. Bye Campbell.

    If you look at the history of the seat prior to 2012 it had been solidly Labor for quite a long time and was won by Labor with 57% 2PP in 2009. In the context of the size of swing needed back to Labor next election this is a very disposable seat for the LNP and one they would not expect to retain.

    You are quite right though about the similarity to Ashgrove and indeed the two returned almost identical 2PPs in the last two elections. But that highlights a specific Newman problem rather than that inability to retain this sort of seat threatens the LNP generally.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 12:19 pm

  27. Ashgrove has a big pocket of well-heeleds up on the hill that Stafford doesn’t.

    by Martin B on Jul 19, 2014 at 12:30 pm

  28. LNP told by Qld Electoral Commission some signage alluding to ALP candidates residence is in breach of the law. Some gaffer tape now being applied…

    by docantk on Jul 19, 2014 at 2:43 pm

  29. Is this a first?

    [@ShaneDoherty9: Australian first #Stafford @9NewsBrisbane #qldpol http://t.co/FkeX5mQpdo

    by sprocket_ on Jul 19, 2014 at 3:01 pm

  30. An Australian first, certainly.

    by William Bowe on Jul 19, 2014 at 3:20 pm

  31. Another dirty trick from the LNP, The QEC had told the LNP they have breached the electoral act with these signs. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bs4QilrCUAE_WWq.jpg

    The LNP stalled with legal letters for as long as the could before they were made to cover them up.

    Even when presented with this. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bs3FXm8CcAAHTzE.jpg

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 3:33 pm

  32. Shane Doherty ‏@ShaneDoherty9 55m
    'Signgate' ends up in Supreme Court. LNP ordered to take hem down #Stafford @9NewsBrisbane #qldpol pic.twitter.com/khwEqAA7U1

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 4:02 pm

  33. Many Stafford booths with 15-20 ALP HTV hander outerers. The membership drive seems to have motivated folk.

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 4:14 pm

  34. Apparently the young LNP to do list for today was to take photos of firefighters and say they would be reported and sacked.

    Desperate times = desperate measures. :lol:

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  35. Interesting that Queensland has a measure of truth in electoral advertising laws a la SA. Not all states have this – some (and also the federal act) only have it an offence to mislead a voter strictly in relation to the casting of their vote.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 5:42 pm

  36. I’ll be posting here and on Twitter (@kevinbonham with all tweets to #staffordvotes) tonight.

    Results by booth (none in yet) :

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/Stafford2014/results/booth77.html

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:09 pm

  37. Live count thread:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/07/19/stafford-by-election-live/

    by William Bowe on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:12 pm

  38. Jarod Hitchcock @Jrod59points
    Bob Ellis predicting a Big Swing to Clive in the #staffordvotes by election, Only problem is no PUP Candidate #Auspol pic.twitter.com/kZnLLnLlYI

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:14 pm

  39. So people still falling for PUP like they did with UKIP in UK?

    by zoidlord on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:19 pm

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