Crikey



Stafford by-election live

#

%

Swing

2PP (proj.)

Swing

Bob Andersen (Liberal National)

7,967

33.4%

-18.6%

36.7%

-20.3%

Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First)

951

4.0%

Anne Boccabella (Greens)

2,846

11.9%

+2.1%

Anthony Lynham (Labor)

12,105

50.7%

+17.1%

63.3%

+20.3%

.

FORMAL/TURNOUT

23,869

76.6%

Informal

474

2.2%

+0.1%

Booths reporting:

14 out of 14

Sunday

The table above shows raw figures in the first two columns for the primary vote, then uses booth matching over the next three columns for the primary vote swings, two-party preferred result and two-party swing. However, these figures are entirely derived from the polling day booth results, and are unaffected by the 2742 pre-polls and 2946 postals which have been added to the count, which are included in the first two columns. Here the swing has been slightly lower – respectively at 16.0% and 14.7% by my reckoning, compared with the 20.3% shown based on polling booth results. So it would seem in the final analysis that the swing is unlikely to have a two in front of it. An interesting new feature of the declaration vote breakdowns is “uncertain identity”, which no doubt has something to do with the new voter identification regime. There are as yet no results listed, but presumably this will change over the next week as the ECQ investigates the declaration votes of those who showed up at the polling booth without the required ID.

The map to the right shows booth-level two-party results from both the March 2012 state election and yesterday. The swing was highly uniform throughout the electorate with the exception of the Chermside booth, where it was only about 6%, and the Prince Charles Hospital booth, where it was 31% (not shown because with only 223 votes cast it falls below the 250-vote threshold I use for inclusion). The waters in Chermside may have been muddied by the fact that it attracted voters who at the general election voted in nearby polling booths in other electorates.

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Categories: Queensland By-Elections, Queensland Politics

121 Responses

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  1. Jarod Hitchcock @Jrod59points
    Bob Ellis predicting a Big Swing to Clive in the #staffordvotes by election, Only problem is no PUP Candidate #Auspol pic.twitter.com/kZnLLnLlYI

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:16 pm

  2. Prince Charles booth in. Enormous swing.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:24 pm

  3. Any idea what the biggest ever swing recorded in a state or Federal by election might be?

    by Outsider on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  4. Prince Charles is a hospital booth. Makes sense now.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:27 pm

  5. The PUP leader in State Qld said the result would be known by 6.30, wot happened. :lol:

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:27 pm

  6. 31% swing seems huge. Surely it’s got to be close to a record. Campbell must really be sweating it right now.

    by peppy7 on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:29 pm

  7. Outsider@3

    Any idea what the biggest ever swing recorded in a state or Federal by election might be?

    Opening bid 26% 2PP Miranda NSW last year but I doubt that’s the highest ever.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:29 pm

  8. As KB noted

    Australian Labor Party ALP 142 65.74
    LNP LNP 45 20.83
    The Greens GRN 18 8.33

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:29 pm

  9. A new addition to the ECQ declaration vote breakdowns: “uncertain identity”.

    by William Bowe on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:29 pm

  10. 5
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:27 pm | PERMALINK
    The PUP leader in State Qld said the result would be known by 6.30, wot happened.

    He is probably still on QLD no daylight saving time..

    by sprocket_ on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:30 pm

  11. Chermside LNP -8% ALP +12 PVs, much smaller as expected since Prince Charles unrepresentative. Still sufficient to flip seat though.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  12. [@AntonyGreenABC: #staffordvotes - 2% counted - second Chermside booth has swing of about 9% - results at http://t.co/mpxa2oGOvF

    by sprocket_ on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  13. A new addition to the ECQ declaration vote breakdowns: “uncertain identity”.

    Jarrod Anderson?

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:38 pm

  14. Antony has the 2PP at 33% from the hospital booth, which means they nicked a Family Firster.

    Second booth reporting has the swing down to 17.8% so I wouldn’t hold out for that record.

    by teh_drewski on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:38 pm

  15. Third booth in with a swing around 17. Not looking flash for LNP but it always was more about the margin.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:43 pm

  16. Absolutely fascinating Green vote, if it’s true.

    Antony Green has his doubts.. “I’m pretty sure the first prefeence votes for Family First and the Greens have been transposed.”

    by PhoenixGreen on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:49 pm

  17. QEC updated their site, FF and Greens error fixed.

    The Greens GRN 892 13.62
    Family First Party FFP 240 3.66

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:52 pm

  18. The Greens votes according to ECQ (http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/Stafford2014/results/summary.html#13) is 13%. Transposed it is.

    by Peter Murphy on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:53 pm

  19. This is of course completely over as a contest. All about the margin now.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:54 pm

  20. GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

    #Stafford 2 Party Preferred (5 booths): LNP 40.5 (-16.6) ALP 59.5 (+16.6)

    by mikehilliard on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:57 pm

  21. ALP might get over 50 on primaries?

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Stafford Primary Votes (8 booths): LNP 32.9 (-17.3) ALP 49.8 (+16.2) #qldpol #auspol

    by sprocket_ on Jul 19, 2014 at 6:58 pm

  22. Can Labor do well enough to win it without going to preferences?

    by kevjohnno on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:00 pm

  23. sprocket

    [Australian Labor Party ALP 4,738 50.01] on primaries now.

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:01 pm

  24. I’m guessing the reason the count is so quick is that optional preferential means the counters don’t have to check if there are errors further down the preferences – as long as there is only one 1 the vote is valid.

    by Stephen Luntz on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:07 pm

  25. 20% swing away from LNP in a Brisbane Middle class seat has Federal implications.

    Abbott might need a war or something…

    by sprocket_ on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:22 pm

  26. Wow not a good result for Newman and his govt.

    Federal implications also on the back of a terrible budget for working Australians and a generally poor federal Liberal govt?

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:25 pm

  27. Abbott might need a war or something…

    I get the impression he’s working on that. He should check a map first.

    by Work To Rule on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:27 pm

  28. WE FARQUED THEM RIGHT UP!

    by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:27 pm

  29. @CliveFPalmer: Goodbye @theqldpremier, goodbye @LNPQLD. Queenslanders have spoken loudly in Stafford today #qldpol #staffordvotes #Staffordbyelection

    by sprocket_ on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:29 pm

  30. Anthony Green’s wise words.

    So Stafford now holds the record as the biggest by-election swing since the current Electoral Act came into force in 1992.

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:32 pm

  31. ABSOLUTE CHILLI ON A STICK!

    by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:34 pm

  32. Don’t cry Campbell. Don’t cry.

    by peppy7 on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:34 pm

  33. Again it’s timely to ask about Newman’s insistence on recontesting his seat. If things continue for the LNP as they are then it’s an incredibly risky strategy on his part.

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:35 pm

  34. Not a record swing by any means, but I wonder if it is a record for a first term government.

    by Stephen Luntz on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:36 pm

  35. Routine mischief from Clive.

    Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 3m
    @LNPQLD backbenchers should desert @theqldpremier now and join @AlexDouglasMP and @PalmerUtdParty #staffordvotes #Staffordbyelection #qldpol

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:37 pm

  36. Yvette put the boot to the groin

    Yvette D'Ath ‏@YvetteDAth now
    @AnnastaciaMP @Lynham4Stafford Campbell you can't blame Scott Driscoll for this one. #qldpol #staffordvotes

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:39 pm

  37. Clive seems to be over-reaching on twitter…

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:46 pm

  38. Stephen, it’s a good deal shy of the 26.1% at the Miranda by-election. Of course, part of the story here is that the spectacular 2011 and 2012 state election results in New South Wales and Queensland are being followed by similarly extraordinary corrections.

    by William Bowe on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:46 pm

  39. An Anthony Green comment CanJoh might like to read. .

    19:22 - Swing is still at 19.8% at the moment. On a side note, and perhaps an important one, Campbell Newman's margin next door in Ashgrove is 5.7%

    by poroti on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:47 pm

  40. I’m guessing the reason the count is so quick is that optional preferential means the counters don’t have to check if there are errors further down the preferences – as long as there is only one 1 the vote is valid.

    A field of only four candidates wouldn’t be doing any harm either.

    by William Bowe on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:48 pm

  41. Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 51s
    #staffordvotes – There have been 3 double digit QLD by-election swing in last 20 years, 2 of them in last 6 months

    by ruawake on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:49 pm

  42. Don’t cry Campbell. Don’t cry.

    Nah…thats about all he can do at this point i reckon. :)

    by imacca on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:51 pm

  43. Wow

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 13s
    #Stafford 2 Party Preferred (all booths): LNP 38.5 (-18.6) ALP 61.5 (+18.6) #qldpol #auspol

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:54 pm

  44. More like Stand by me.

    by zoidlord on Jul 19, 2014 at 7:54 pm

  45. Prince Charles is a hospital booth. Makes sense now.

    :)

    by silentmajority on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:03 pm

  46. Baseball bats await Newman.

    by lefty e on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:05 pm

  47. A fab result for Labor

    Yay!

    by silentmajority on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:08 pm

  48. It’d be a brave punter who’d imagine the QLD ALP could win government from this position, but I tell you: its gonna be bloody close.

    by lefty e on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:11 pm

  49. It’d be a brave punter who’d imagine the QLD ALP could win government from this position, but I tell you: its gonna be bloody close.

    The thing about how things are travelling is that the LNP have turned a massive parliamentary majority into a potentially close-run bid for a second term, while at the same time exposing their own leader to losing his seat.

    If Newman is turfed by his constituents, yet the LNP are re-elected, who is the next leader?

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:17 pm

  50. That factorwillcertainlyplay on the punters’ minds Confessions.

    Newma hopes of holding Ashgrove are objectively slim. If the LNP dont find him another, this will speak volumes about their attitude to their own leader.

    by lefty e on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:23 pm

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