Crikey



Stafford by-election live

#

%

Swing

2PP (proj.)

Swing

Bob Andersen (Liberal National)

7,967

33.4%

-18.6%

36.7%

-20.3%

Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First)

951

4.0%

Anne Boccabella (Greens)

2,846

11.9%

+2.1%

Anthony Lynham (Labor)

12,105

50.7%

+17.1%

63.3%

+20.3%

.

FORMAL/TURNOUT

23,869

76.6%

Informal

474

2.2%

+0.1%

Booths reporting:

14 out of 14

Sunday

The table above shows raw figures in the first two columns for the primary vote, then uses booth matching over the next three columns for the primary vote swings, two-party preferred result and two-party swing. However, these figures are entirely derived from the polling day booth results, and are unaffected by the 2742 pre-polls and 2946 postals which have been added to the count, which are included in the first two columns. Here the swing has been slightly lower – respectively at 16.0% and 14.7% by my reckoning, compared with the 20.3% shown based on polling booth results. So it would seem in the final analysis that the swing is unlikely to have a two in front of it. An interesting new feature of the declaration vote breakdowns is “uncertain identity”, which no doubt has something to do with the new voter identification regime. There are as yet no results listed, but presumably this will change over the next week as the ECQ investigates the declaration votes of those who showed up at the polling booth without the required ID.

The map to the right shows booth-level two-party results from both the March 2012 state election and yesterday. The swing was highly uniform throughout the electorate with the exception of the Chermside booth, where it was only about 6%, and the Prince Charles Hospital booth, where it was 31% (not shown because with only 223 votes cast it falls below the 250-vote threshold I use for inclusion). The waters in Chermside may have been muddied by the fact that it attracted voters who at the general election voted in nearby polling booths in other electorates.

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Categories: Queensland By-Elections, Queensland Politics

121 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 |
  1. First term status was never what it used to be. 22% of first-term state governments in the last 60 years have lost. Just hasn’t happened for a while.

    Interesting KB,thanks

    Sophomore effect is not at all likely to save Napthine. It might well save the LNP in Queensland though.

    Agree. It’ll be close in QLD though.

    Agree Martin – probably Springborg. Nats turn next etc. Could yet be Palaszczuk* though.

    (* we were once pals in our undergrad days, and yet I still have to google the spelling every time)

    by lefty e on Jul 20, 2014 at 12:06 am

  2. I suspect that in true PUP style they will intervene in ALP leadership as a condition of confidence and there will be enough internal ALP division to swing the numbers in favour of, maybe, Dick. This is a speculative prediction.

    by Martin B on Jul 20, 2014 at 12:18 am

  3. If PUP hold the balance of power post-election (heaven help us all, really), but:
    * PUP really aren’t friends to the ALP and would almost certainly offer to form government with the LNP. The PUP strategy has become very clear with their Senate shenanigans of the last couple of weeks – they want to dominate the LNP, and the way to do that is to drive the agenda over a hapless LNP. PUP have no interest in dominating the ALP.

    * In the unlikely event that PUP did offer to install the ALP as a minority government the ALP really have to say “thanks, but no thanks”. It would be madness to form government reliant on PUP support.

    by Jackol on Jul 20, 2014 at 12:32 am

  4. ALP should defiantly say no to minority gov or offer support to Clive.

    Clive wants to benefit himself.

    by zoidlord on Jul 20, 2014 at 1:02 am

  5. ALP should defiantly say no to minority gov or offer support to Clive.

    Clive wants to benefit himself.

    Agree. A Coalition government with Palmer would last 6 months tops.

    Labor should stand aside and just wait for that to fall apart before claiming majority government at a subsequent election.

    by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2014 at 1:25 am

  6. If federal Labor had any sense of irony they’d tie the result of this election to the repeal of the carbon tax. Obviously the voters miss it. :pictureasmugsmiliehere:

    by absolutetwaddle on Jul 20, 2014 at 2:56 am

  7. The danger for the alp is that disaffected lnp voters will turn to the pup but their preferences will not go to labor. Optional preferential voting and poosible pup preferencing are the wild cards of the next qld election. Labor needs to convert the disaffected lnp votes to alp votes to surely win.

    by blackburnpseph on Jul 20, 2014 at 8:42 am

  8. Campbell Newman is in serious denial:

    The Premier laid the blame for the LNP’s defeat firmly at the feet of his former assistant health minister Chris Davis, whose resignation triggered the by-election.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-says-lnp-members-understand-how-you-feel-after-stafford-byelection-loss-20140719-zuw7s.html#ixzz37xWlgSvH

    So it is all the fault of the guy who complained about the risk of corruption and ego-mania? It can’t possibly be the fault of the ego maniac. Clearly, Stafford voters disagreed.

    by Socrates on Jul 20, 2014 at 9:15 am

  9. If you look at by elections swings for QLD only from 1991.

    their is almost no correlation between size of the swings between the by election swing and the main election swing.

    by Timothy Reichle on Jul 20, 2014 at 9:32 am

  10. On what Socrates linked to at 107:

    Dr Davis resigned after a public falling out with the Newman government over doctors’ contracts and changes to electoral donation laws.

    “Clearly, the attacks on the government by the former member were a factor in this election as well – it did us no favours and did Bob’s campaign no favours,” Mr Newman said.

    A local member resigns in protest, so the Premier decides to blame him for the by-election campaign? That’s why I reckon the swing is going to be north of 10% come 2015. Most governments – say, like Howard – have a rudimentary ability to learn from their mistakes. Newman has none.

    by Peter Murphy on Jul 20, 2014 at 10:42 am

  11. The comments here about the next Qld election being close are ludicrous. The 2015 Qld election will be a LNP massacre. It’s a simple 1, 2, 3. i.e. Redcliff, Stafford then all of Qld.

    by Paul on Jul 20, 2014 at 11:01 am

  12. Peter Murphy

    Exactly, hence my ego-maniac reference to Newman. If anything the article was polite to Campbell, ommitting several other concerns Davis had with his high handed manner. Even in his “we are listening” line, Newman talks about tough decisions and redoubling efforts. He does not say anywhere he intends to change a single policy. Steady as she sinks, for Capn Newman.

    by Socrates on Jul 20, 2014 at 11:22 am

  13. Davis at least listened to his constituents and the polling that his office conducted at least show some consolation to him.
    Newman, on the other hand, is in a world of his own.

    by Raaraa on Jul 20, 2014 at 12:39 pm

  14. The danger for the alp is that disaffected lnp voters will turn to the pup but their preferences will not go to labor. Optional preferential voting and poosible pup preferencing are the wild cards of the next qld election. Labor needs to convert the disaffected lnp votes to alp votes to surely win.

    I strongly suspect that enough votes will come back to Labor to give them their ‘normal’ Brisbane seats. It might be a problem for the ALP in Ipswich and regional cities, although I still suspect PUP will be more of a problem for the LNP there.

    by Martin B on Jul 20, 2014 at 12:40 pm

  15. Comparisons to the last Qld State elections are all but meaningless, the Katter Party has imploded an PUP has not captured its voters (apparently, I see no evidence of this).

    Some seats that should fall easily won’t. Others that nobody expected to change hands will.

    I am hearing Ted Sorensen in Hervey Bay is telling anyone who will listen he is going to lose in March.

    by ruawake on Jul 20, 2014 at 4:34 pm

  16. I wonder if the charges against the mayor of Ipswich will have any bearing against the state seat.

    by Raaraa on Jul 20, 2014 at 4:34 pm

  17. Paul:

    The comments here about the next Qld election being close are ludicrous. The 2015 Qld election will be a LNP massacre.

    The LNP will certainly take a hit in the next state election, but I wouldn’t get too excited. The magnitude of the anti-LNP swing in this by-election was in a large part due to Newton’s Third Law of Motion.

    by kakuru on Jul 20, 2014 at 5:03 pm

  18. I wonder if the charges against the mayor of Ipswich will have any bearing against the state seat.

    I doubt it, most local councils in SE Qld do have have party affiliation in elections. Paul Pissale is not associated with any brand of politics in public.

    by ruawake on Jul 20, 2014 at 5:52 pm

  19. ruawake@114

    Comparisons to the last Qld State elections are all but meaningless, the Katter Party has imploded an PUP has not captured its voters (apparently, I see no evidence of this).

    PUP has indeed not captured most of the KAP voters. There was a ReachTEL which asked those saying they’d vote PUP to self-report how they voted in 2012. Self-reporting tends to be slightly inaccurate and perhaps especially so in this case, but the percentage who self-reported KAP was so low (15%, ie about 2% of all voters) that it was clear most of the KAPpers had not switched to PUP.

    The hard core of KAP voters, the 3.7% who voted for them at the federal election in Queensland, are rather more PUP-supportive. In most seats between 40 and 55% of their preferences went to PUP. (Lower in Moreton and Griffith, higher in Maranoa where the PUP candidate was a Bjelke-Petersen).

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 20, 2014 at 5:56 pm

  20. Premier Springborg?

    How many of the Beattie/Bligh elections were won over not letting a National become Premier again?

    by mimhoff on Jul 20, 2014 at 8:29 pm

  21. Premier “The Borg”…… Dog help us!

    by DRinMelb on Jul 21, 2014 at 12:01 pm

  22. Other than Borg and Seeney, the other old Nats in Cabinet would seem to be Jack Dempsey, John McVeigh, Andrew Powell, Andrew Cripps and Steven Dickson. If I’ve missed any, or anyone thinks that one of these latter – or someone currently outside Cabinet – is a real shot then I’d be interested to hear.

    by Martin B on Jul 21, 2014 at 2:21 pm

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