Crikey



Stafford by-election live

#

%

Swing

2PP (proj.)

Swing

Bob Andersen (Liberal National)

7,967

33.4%

-18.6%

36.7%

-20.3%

Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First)

951

4.0%

Anne Boccabella (Greens)

2,846

11.9%

+2.1%

Anthony Lynham (Labor)

12,105

50.7%

+17.1%

63.3%

+20.3%

.

FORMAL/TURNOUT

23,869

76.6%

Informal

474

2.2%

+0.1%

Booths reporting:

14 out of 14

Sunday

The table above shows raw figures in the first two columns for the primary vote, then uses booth matching over the next three columns for the primary vote swings, two-party preferred result and two-party swing. However, these figures are entirely derived from the polling day booth results, and are unaffected by the 2742 pre-polls and 2946 postals which have been added to the count, which are included in the first two columns. Here the swing has been slightly lower – respectively at 16.0% and 14.7% by my reckoning, compared with the 20.3% shown based on polling booth results. So it would seem in the final analysis that the swing is unlikely to have a two in front of it. An interesting new feature of the declaration vote breakdowns is “uncertain identity”, which no doubt has something to do with the new voter identification regime. There are as yet no results listed, but presumably this will change over the next week as the ECQ investigates the declaration votes of those who showed up at the polling booth without the required ID.

The map to the right shows booth-level two-party results from both the March 2012 state election and yesterday. The swing was highly uniform throughout the electorate with the exception of the Chermside booth, where it was only about 6%, and the Prince Charles Hospital booth, where it was 31% (not shown because with only 223 votes cast it falls below the 250-vote threshold I use for inclusion). The waters in Chermside may have been muddied by the fact that it attracted voters who at the general election voted in nearby polling booths in other electorates.

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Categories: Queensland By-Elections, Queensland Politics

121 Responses

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  1. That factorwillcertainlyplay on the punters’ minds Confessions.

    Newma hopes of holding Ashgrove are objectively slim. If the LNP dont find him another, this will speak volumes about their attitude to their own leader.

    by lefty e on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:23 pm

  2. The thing about how things are travelling is that the LNP have turned a massive parliamentary majority into a potentially close-run bid for a second term

    Well there is plenty of time for Newman to gerrymander the boundaries so he can’t lose.

    by WeWantPaul on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:27 pm

  3. leftye:

    Newman made quite a song and dance a couple of months ago by insisting that he was the preselected LNP candidate for Ashgrove.

    When a few of us discussed this a couple of weeks ago, I surmised that he was attempting to emulate a Howard in going down fighting, hoping that maybe appearing stoic and unflinched would count for something with his constituents in the end, esp given he’s a first termer.

    I guess we’ll see what happens between now and March. Newman being a first termer might be the wild card in this instance?

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:29 pm

  4. Maybe that’s the strategy , go to the election offering Newman as a sacrifice, with the electorate being certain they get a new premier.

    by sceptic on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:30 pm

  5. We stuck it right up them!

    by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:33 pm

  6. Now that’s a swing. :)

    by Just Me on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:33 pm

  7. sceptic:

    Yeah, but who? Newman’s front bench screams shifty, blokesville white shoe brigaders.

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:34 pm

  8. A friend of mine (also an ex-QLDer like me) reckon they could engineer a by-election after the general election.

    I tend to disagree somewhat: the Nats are still the larger membership force, and I reckon theyll lt Newman walk into history.

    by lefty e on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:35 pm

  9. And my assessment is that first timer status aint what it used to be.

    Will still be a factor seat by seat with incumbemency honeymoons etc, but is it something governments can still rely on? I think those days are gone, as Napthine will soon discover.

    by lefty e on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:38 pm

  10. Would the LNP dump a 1st term Premier to save the furniture ?

    by Rex Douglas on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:41 pm

  11. the Nats are still the larger membership force, and I reckon theyll lt Newman walk into history.

    Well, on the face of it this seems to be bearing out with Newman’s insistence that he remain in Ashgrove.

    And if you’re right about the Nats holding the majority membership then OMG who might Qlders end up with as Premier if Newman is felled? The mind boggles.

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:44 pm

  12. leftye:

    I don’t think govts have ever been able to rely on the so-called sophomore effect, and it’d be a fool govt which did IMO.

    But that said, according to Mumble the phenomenon does seem to hold legitimacy.

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:46 pm

  13. :lol: :lol: :lol:

    (No need to say anything else.)

    by Dan Gulberry on Jul 19, 2014 at 8:56 pm

  14. Swing is a few points higher than I would have expected, though I did think the LNP candidate came across poorly.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:00 pm

  15. @Kevin

    They prob chosen that candidate on purpose.

    by zoidlord on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:02 pm

  16. I know nothing of qld politics, but is it inconceivable that Newman could be dumped? The Victorian libs did it to Ted, it happened in the NT and to Rudd as well.

    I don’t doubt that the talent pool is shallow but lack of talent was never a handicap in politics

    by rossmcg on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:02 pm

  17. zoidlord@64

    @Kevin

    They prob chosen that candidate on purpose.

    The thought did cross my mind a few times.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:06 pm

  18. lefty e@58

    And my assessment is that first timer status aint what it used to be.

    Will still be a factor seat by seat with incumbemency honeymoons etc, but is it something governments can still rely on? I think those days are gone, as Napthine will soon discover.

    First term status was never what it used to be. 22% of first-term state governments in the last 60 years have lost. Just hasn’t happened for a while.

    Sophomore effect is not at all likely to save Napthine. It might well save the LNP in Queensland though.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:12 pm

  19. Kevin Bonham @ 67: I do wonder whether the data we have on the sophomore effect is relevant. You tend to get lots of new members when there’s a change of government with a big swing. Usually new governments enjoy a honeymoon, and the sophomores can proudly proclaim their membership of a team which has some enduring popularity. How much evidence do we have of a significant sophomore effect when the representatives in question are supporters of a government with a collapsing support base?

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:33 pm

  20. As a one-time Queenslander what can I say? Came back from seeing St.Kilda break their eleven game losing streak, and find that Campbell Newman has extended his losing streak to two.

    I don’t think anyone in the LNP will challenge him before the next election for two reasons.

    1. None of them has the guts
    2. They can all see that he will probably lose in Ashgrove but the LNP will still probably win, so after he is out they can proclaim a “new era” without Newman.

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:54 pm

  21. pedant@68

    Kevin Bonham @ 67: I do wonder whether the data we have on the sophomore effect is relevant. You tend to get lots of new members when there’s a change of government with a big swing. Usually new governments enjoy a honeymoon, and the sophomores can proudly proclaim their membership of a team which has some enduring popularity. How much evidence do we have of a significant sophomore effect when the representatives in question are supporters of a government with a collapsing support base?

    In terms of something like a 10% swing against a first-term government it’s not a very common scenario. The Howard federal government in 1998 copped a 4.6% swing, losing the 2PP, and at that election the swing against it in the sophomore seats it won from opposition in 1996 was 1.5 points lower than the national average.

    But I don’t think sophomore effect is really about links to the government; I think it’s really just about the “oh I’ve heard of them” factor in voting.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:54 pm

  22. So I believe the real question is who will be Premier after the next election. I still expect it to be someone from the LNP – Seeney? Springborg? Emerson? any takers??

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:57 pm

  23. Something else I think we can say about the by-election: dirt campaign attempt didn’t work, perhaps backfired even.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 9:58 pm

  24. kb 72 – I think the backfiring has only begun. It will come out who leaked the info about Lynham’s “overpayment” and I have a gut feeling these revelations could be very bad news for the LNP.

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:02 pm

  25. Kevin Bonham @ 70: I take your points. I do wonder, however, whether it will help a sophomore to have his or her name recognised because of association with an unpopular government or premier. My point, I guess, is that if the electorate collectively has s*** on the liver with a government – of the type which produces a 10% swing rather than a 4.6% swing – will any local effects really be of much help?

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:15 pm

  26. confessions, lefty e

    Just read back to your posts about leadership. I suppose the fact that no-one in the party was willing to stand aside (or push someone else aside) to put Newman into Parliament before the last election gives an indication of the deep and abiding love his fellow LNP Parliamentarians have for Campbell Newman. I would so especially the “N” ones.

    So now he is really stuck – if he “jumps ship” from Ashgrove after this by-election result he is basically saying to Queenslanders that he hasn’t got the b*lls for the fight and knows that he and his Governmnet are in trouble.

    So I still predict he will contest Ashgrove, and in his party, (to quote from The Holy Grail) ther will be “much rejoicing”. And even more rejoicing if he loses Ashgrove but the LNP retain Government. Politicians are such ungrateful beasts really!

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:15 pm

  27. pedant 74 – you know things have shifted when you look at their office windows and all trace of “LNP” has been removed, and all photos of their leader have gone. In their electorate material they start aggressively promoting themselves as “Member for xxx” with no mention of LNP or Newman.

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:18 pm

  28. Rocket Rocket @ 71: If the LNP wins but Mr Newman loses, one would expect the LNP collectively to open up the caviar and say thank God. The ALP should be emphasising that a vote for the LNP is a vote for Mr Newman. And Mr Newman of course is in a cleft stick: he runs the risk of foundering in his current seat, but to jump ship and head for a safer seat could be portrayed as defeatism and cowardice.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:19 pm

  29. Rocket:

    If Newman isn’t returned at the next election someone will have to stump up as leader. My questions was who is the next likely post-Newman candidate?

    by confessions on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:22 pm

  30. Rocket Rocket @ 76: We seem to be of similar minds. Re removal of references to the LNP: there’s also the sauve qui peut moment when backbenchers decide their only hope of survival is to dissent publicly from some of the government’s less popular moves. Something to watch for in the coming months.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:23 pm

  31. pedant – (I am joking) – maybe the ALP shoudl not contest Ashgrove to make such a point believable.

    But then a PUP candidate would probably beat him.

    In all seriousness this may become a minor problem for Labor – if it becomes apparent in the lead-up that Newman (presuming he contests it) is absolutely “gone” in Ashgrove it may actually encourage people in other electorates to consider the possiblity of a Newman-less LNP Government and not swing against them as badly.

    I just can’t see Labor winning in Queensland – much as I would like a “trifecta” in Vic/Qld/NT where I have lived!

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:29 pm

  32. pedant 79 – yes, that is a fascinating “tipping point” and it usually starts with someone who knows they are a “oncer” and has nothing to lose. Then it spreads to the mid-range seats, and eventually to Ministers in loseable electorates.

    Then the cock crows.

    Of course some of the “goners” may jump ship to PUP or KAP before the end when they realise there are not enough lifeboats for them “third class” passengers.

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:33 pm

  33. Rocket Rocket @ 80: Yes, that’s possible. The other delightful post-election scenario would be the LNP needing the support of PUP members to form a government. Given Mr Palmer’s hatred of Mr Newman, presumably a pre-condition for such PUP support would be the casting of a re-elected Mr Newman into the outer darkness. Shades of Earle Page kyboshing Billy Hughes in the early 1920s, and Sir John McEwen doing the same to Billy McMahon after the death of Harold Holt.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:37 pm

  34. pedant@74

    Kevin Bonham @ 70: I take your points. I do wonder, however, whether it will help a sophomore to have his or her name recognised because of association with an unpopular government or premier.

    That problem affects any sitting member. That said, we’re not looking at a government that’s going to be trailing 40:60. At the moment we’re looking at a government that is still polling OK, except that it looks horrible because of the size of the swing since last election.

    Sophomore effect only does so much. If the state swing is 10 points then it might be 8.5 in the sophomore seats and 11.5 in the rest (on average) for example. Even that would make a few seats difference still.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:43 pm

  35. pedant@82

    Rocket Rocket @ 80: Yes, that’s possible. The other delightful post-election scenario would be the LNP needing the support of PUP members to form a government. Given Mr Palmer’s hatred of Mr Newman, presumably a pre-condition for such PUP support would be the casting of a re-elected Mr Newman into the outer darkness. Shades of Earle Page kyboshing Billy Hughes in the early 1920s, and Sir John McEwen doing the same to Billy McMahon after the death of Harold Holt.

    I could easily see it panning out this way too.

    by Kevin Bonham on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:44 pm

  36. Kevin Bonham @ 83: Another element of the equation is that if people are convinced that the LNP cannot lose – and that seems to be the shared opinion here on PB – then voters might well approach the next general election as if it were a by-election at which they could safely cast a protest vote.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 10:47 pm

  37. pedant 85 – yes I remember the Liberals winning minority govt in ACT in 1995 by basically saying “We can’t win, but give the Labor Govt a kick in the pants” (I really think they used the phrase ‘kick in the pants’ but I could be wrong.

    So “Vote out Campbell Newman if you are in Ashgrove, as for the rest of us – let’s give the LNP a kick in the pants” could be the way to go.

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:07 pm

  38. Rocket Rocket @ 86: I remember hearing the comment from people who were around politics at the time that there was a similar explanation for the near defeat of the Menzies government at the 1961 federal election.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:09 pm

  39. Bludgers one and all. I am just back from the Stafford party at Crushers. Our booth showed about 57-43 to Labor. This is upper middle class Brisbane. Ave house price about $800k.

    We fucked them over! Woo hoo.

    by roger bottomley on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:14 pm

  40. And the Victorian Libs and Nats swear that’s why Kennett fell in 1999 – that people didn’t really believe they were voting out the Government. Who knows? But I think this can happen a bit. In non-compulsory lands like UK/USA they probably just don’t vote.

    I once asked english psephologist David Butler why Australians often returned moderately unpopular governments for one last “chance” before slaughtering them at the subsequent election, and he said he thought it was to do with compulsory voting – that in the UK those moderately unhappy with a government but not enamoured with the opposition just wouldn’t vote, whereas here enough of them stay with the “inertia” and keep govts in. (often not helping them in the longer run eg Vic 1988, NSW 2007)

    by Rocket Rocket on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:16 pm

  41. We shoved it so far up them I think it will take them 20 years to find it.

    by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:22 pm

  42. Great man David Butler: He was in Canberra in April last year, and gave a first rate talk at ANU, quite remarkable considering that he turns 90 later this year. He’s always been one of the most perceptive commentators on Australian electoral politics.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:23 pm

  43. Shows. I saw Newman today in Stafford. He was bent over like Houdini looking for the missile the good burghers of Stafford had just shoved up his rectum.

    by roger bottomley on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  44. Roger Bottomley @ 88: I presume someone has a letter in to the ECQ seeking prosecution of whoever in the LNP put up the false signs. The mere fact that it failed as a tactic shouldn’t be the end of it.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:25 pm

  45. Pedant, there are a few photos of Can’t Do standing next to the illegal signs. I agree, they should be prosecuted. You should have seen this knob in our booth trying to redact the offensive words.

    Tories = Tools

    by roger bottomley on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:27 pm

  46. Roger Bottomley @ 88: I presume someone has a letter in to the ECQ seeking prosecution of whoever in the LNP put up the false signs. The mere fact that it failed as a tactic shouldn’t be the end of it.

    Photos?

    by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:30 pm

  47. roger bottomley @ 94: One would assume that they carried an authorisation, and I would guess whoever authorised them would be the first target.

    It would have been nice if the ALP booth workers had had a texta to offer to their counterparts.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:31 pm

  48. The LNP types seem stupid enough to try to interfere with the course of justice, which would certainly help to keep the story alive and kicking.

    by pedant on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:33 pm

  49. Pedant, it was quite hilarious watching this knob from the LNP using black gaffer tape to redact their own signs.

    by roger bottomley on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:48 pm

  50. If the LNP win, Newman loses and the ex-Nats hold the whip hand then surely it will be Premier Springborg: Seeney is clearly unacceptable and there is, I think, no one else.

    I do indeed say not to count out an engineered by-election in the interests of “what people want”. I think a post-election scenario will be a different situation. Newman will certainly stand in Ashgrove – to do else would be weak – but may still again get the numbers from outside the party room.

    However I increasingly think that the next election will lead to a hung parliament leading to minority ALP government. Labor will revert to the mean – and then some – in Brisbane while PUP will take seats from the LNP in the hinterland and regions.

    by Martin B on Jul 19, 2014 at 11:51 pm

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