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Queensland Politics

Jul 19, 2014

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# % Swing 2PP (proj.) Swing
Bob Andersen (Liberal National) 7,967 33.4% -18.6% 36.7% -20.3%
Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First) 951 4.0%
Anne Boccabella (Greens) 2,846 11.9% +2.1%
Anthony Lynham (Labor) 12,105 50.7% +17.1% 63.3% +20.3%
.
FORMAL/TURNOUT 23,869 76.6%
Informal 474 2.2% +0.1%
Booths reporting: 14 out of 14

Sunday

The table above shows raw figures in the first two columns for the primary vote, then uses booth matching over the next three columns for the primary vote swings, two-party preferred result and two-party swing. However, these figures are entirely derived from the polling day booth results, and are unaffected by the 2742 pre-polls and 2946 postals which have been added to the count, which are included in the first two columns. Here the swing has been slightly lower – respectively at 16.0% and 14.7% by my reckoning, compared with the 20.3% shown based on polling booth results. So it would seem in the final analysis that the swing is unlikely to have a two in front of it. An interesting new feature of the declaration vote breakdowns is “uncertain identity”, which no doubt has something to do with the new voter identification regime. There are as yet no results listed, but presumably this will change over the next week as the ECQ investigates the declaration votes of those who showed up at the polling booth without the required ID.

The map to the right shows booth-level two-party results from both the March 2012 state election and yesterday. The swing was highly uniform throughout the electorate with the exception of the Chermside booth, where it was only about 6%, and the Prince Charles Hospital booth, where it was 31% (not shown because with only 223 votes cast it falls below the 250-vote threshold I use for inclusion). The waters in Chermside may have been muddied by the fact that it attracted voters who at the general election voted in nearby polling booths in other electorates.

The chart to the left offers some historical perspective by detailing polling booth results (so no postals, pre-polls, absents or other declaration votes) in Stafford from this and previous election. I did this half in the expectation of showing that 2012 rather than yesterday was the extraordinary result, but what emerges is that it was a very good result for Labor by any measure. It should be particularly encouraging for them that they were about 6% up on two-party preferred from a winning election in 2009, although I should caution that Labor did seem to suffer a bit of a backlash in Brisbane’s inner north on that occasion.

Another way of putting the result in perspective is offered by the chart to the right, which seeks to illustrate the extent to which by-election swings provide a pointer to the result of the next election. Drawing on federal and state by-election results over recent decades, it shows the government swing (which is usually negative) on the X-axis and the overall swing recorded at the subsequent election on the Y-axis. The linear trendline that runs through the middle is not brilliantly predictive, explaining only 42% of the variation, but the relationship is there, and for a 20% by-election swing it implies a swing of 8.7% at the following election. While this is a seismic shift in absolute terms, it still leaves the LNP out in front by 54-46. If such a swing was uniform, Labor would emerge with a still fairly modest 27 seats in an assembly of 89 – although importantly, one of those seats would be Ashgrove.

Saturday

7.51pm. Stafford Heights two-party result added.

7.39pm. All that remains for the evening is two-party results from the Stafford Heights booth and perhaps a few pre-poll numbers. The projected swing to Labor is now over 20% – a disastrous result for the LNP by any standard.

7.20pm. All booths now in on the primary vote, and the result is fairly clearly looking worse for the LNP than Redcliffe, which would be gravely alarming for them.

7.03pm. At around the time I thought results would start coming in, they’re actually well on their way to finished. Preference shares: 52.1% to Labor (41.4% in 2012), 14.4% to LNP (20.3%), 33.5% exhausted (38.3%).

7.01pm. Gympie Road booth added, swing now 18.9%.

6.58pm. Stafford West booth has reported, and the swing is staying above 18%.

6.55pm. There are now enough two-party votes that I’m no longer going off 2012 preferences, and the Labor swing is now even higher – over 18%.

6.49pm. I very seriously understimated how fast this count was going to be. Six normal booths in plus a pre-poll, and the result is looking very similar to Redcliffe with a swing of around 16%. It can most assuredly be called for Labor now.

6.48pm. Chermside has reported 2PP: four votes to LNP, nine to Labor, 12 exhaust.

6.45pm. I’m doing some experimental probability calculations for my own amusement, and I presently have Labor’s win probability at 94.05%.

6.42pm. Newmarket booth added on primary vote. Whereas I only had the swing at Chermside at about 6%, being right on what Labor required, here it’s 18.8%.

6.37pm. Two-party result from Prince Charles added: of the non-major party votes, 16 went to Labor, five to the LNP, and eight exhausted.

6.33pm. A far more moderate result from the 382 votes at Chermside, where I’m rating Labor up 9% and the LNP down 3.5% – although a number of booths from 2012 aren’t in use this time, so such comparisons are problematic.

6.23pm. Only 216 votes from Prince Charles hospital booth, so quicker off the mark than I thought. The results are … interesting. My two-party preferred projection is at this stage based on the preference allocation from the 2012 election.

6.10pm. Polls have closed at Queensland’s Stafford by-election and counting is under way. This post will follow the count as the results come in, with the above table showing raw primary votes and percentages, and booth-matched two-party preferred projections and primary vote swings. This being a highly urban electorate, all the booths will be large and take a while to count, so I wouldn’t hold my breath on any results being in before 7pm.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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121 comments

121 thoughts on “Stafford by-election live

  1. Kevin Bonham

    Jarod Hitchcock @Jrod59points
    Bob Ellis predicting a Big Swing to Clive in the #staffordvotes by election, Only problem is no PUP Candidate #Auspol pic.twitter.com/kZnLLnLlYI

  2. Kevin Bonham

    Prince Charles booth in. Enormous swing.

  3. Outsider

    Any idea what the biggest ever swing recorded in a state or Federal by election might be?

  4. Kevin Bonham

    Prince Charles is a hospital booth. Makes sense now.

  5. ruawake

    The PUP leader in State Qld said the result would be known by 6.30, wot happened. 😆

  6. peppy7

    31% swing seems huge. Surely it’s got to be close to a record. Campbell must really be sweating it right now.

  7. Kevin Bonham

    Outsider@3

    Any idea what the biggest ever swing recorded in a state or Federal by election might be?

    Opening bid 26% 2PP Miranda NSW last year but I doubt that’s the highest ever.

  8. ruawake

    As KB noted

    [Australian Labor Party ALP 142 65.74
    LNP LNP 45 20.83
    The Greens GRN 18 8.33 ]

  9. William Bowe

    A new addition to the ECQ declaration vote breakdowns: “uncertain identity”.

  10. sprocket_

    [5
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:27 pm | PERMALINK
    The PUP leader in State Qld said the result would be known by 6.30, wot happened. ]

    He is probably still on QLD no daylight saving time..

  11. Kevin Bonham

    Chermside LNP -8% ALP +12 PVs, much smaller as expected since Prince Charles unrepresentative. Still sufficient to flip seat though.

  12. sprocket_

    [@AntonyGreenABC: #staffordvotes – 2% counted – second Chermside booth has swing of about 9% – results at http://t.co/mpxa2oGOvF%5D

  13. ruawake

    [A new addition to the ECQ declaration vote breakdowns: “uncertain identity”.]

    Jarrod Anderson?

  14. teh_drewski

    Antony has the 2PP at 33% from the hospital booth, which means they nicked a Family Firster.

    Second booth reporting has the swing down to 17.8% so I wouldn’t hold out for that record.

  15. Kevin Bonham

    Third booth in with a swing around 17. Not looking flash for LNP but it always was more about the margin.

  16. PhoenixGreen

    Absolutely fascinating Green vote, if it’s true.

    Antony Green has his doubts.. “I’m pretty sure the first prefeence votes for Family First and the Greens have been transposed.”

  17. ruawake

    QEC updated their site, FF and Greens error fixed.

    [The Greens GRN 892 13.62
    Family First Party FFP 240 3.66 ]

  18. Kevin Bonham

    This is of course completely over as a contest. All about the margin now.

  19. mikehilliard

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

    #Stafford 2 Party Preferred (5 booths): LNP 40.5 (-16.6) ALP 59.5 (+16.6)

  20. sprocket_

    ALP might get over 50 on primaries?

    [@GhostWhoVotes: #Stafford Primary Votes (8 booths): LNP 32.9 (-17.3) ALP 49.8 (+16.2) #qldpol #auspol]

  21. kevjohnno

    Can Labor do well enough to win it without going to preferences?

  22. ruawake

    sprocket

    [Australian Labor Party ALP 4,738 50.01] on primaries now.

  23. Stephen Luntz

    I’m guessing the reason the count is so quick is that optional preferential means the counters don’t have to check if there are errors further down the preferences – as long as there is only one 1 the vote is valid.

  24. sprocket_

    20% swing away from LNP in a Brisbane Middle class seat has Federal implications.

    Abbott might need a war or something…

  25. confessions

    Wow not a good result for Newman and his govt.

    Federal implications also on the back of a terrible budget for working Australians and a generally poor federal Liberal govt?

  26. Work To Rule

    Abbott might need a war or something…

    I get the impression he’s working on that. He should check a map first.

  27. ShowsOn

    WE FARQUED THEM RIGHT UP!

  28. sprocket_

    [@CliveFPalmer: Goodbye @theqldpremier, goodbye @LNPQLD. Queenslanders have spoken loudly in Stafford today #qldpol #staffordvotes #Staffordbyelection]

  29. ruawake

    Anthony Green’s wise words.

    [ So Stafford now holds the record as the biggest by-election swing since the current Electoral Act came into force in 1992.]

  30. ShowsOn

    ABSOLUTE CHILLI ON A STICK!

  31. peppy7

    Don’t cry Campbell. Don’t cry.

  32. confessions

    Again it’s timely to ask about Newman’s insistence on recontesting his seat. If things continue for the LNP as they are then it’s an incredibly risky strategy on his part.

  33. Stephen Luntz

    Not a record swing by any means, but I wonder if it is a record for a first term government.

  34. ruawake

    Routine mischief from Clive.

    [Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 3m
    @LNPQLD backbenchers should desert @theqldpremier now and join @AlexDouglasMP and @PalmerUtdParty #staffordvotes #Staffordbyelection #qldpol]

  35. ruawake

    Yvette put the boot to the groin

    [Yvette D’Ath ‏@YvetteDAth now
    @AnnastaciaMP @Lynham4Stafford Campbell you can’t blame Scott Driscoll for this one. #qldpol #staffordvotes]

  36. confessions

    Clive seems to be over-reaching on twitter…

  37. William Bowe

    Stephen, it’s a good deal shy of the 26.1% at the Miranda by-election. Of course, part of the story here is that the spectacular 2011 and 2012 state election results in New South Wales and Queensland are being followed by similarly extraordinary corrections.

  38. poroti

    An Anthony Green comment CanJoh might like to read. .
    [19:22 – Swing is still at 19.8% at the moment. On a side note, and perhaps an important one, Campbell Newman’s margin next door in Ashgrove is 5.7%]

  39. William Bowe

    [I’m guessing the reason the count is so quick is that optional preferential means the counters don’t have to check if there are errors further down the preferences – as long as there is only one 1 the vote is valid.]

    A field of only four candidates wouldn’t be doing any harm either.

  40. ruawake

    Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 51s
    #staffordvotes – There have been 3 double digit QLD by-election swing in last 20 years, 2 of them in last 6 months

  41. imacca

    [ Don’t cry Campbell. Don’t cry. ]

    Nah…thats about all he can do at this point i reckon. 🙂

  42. confessions

    Wow

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 13s
    #Stafford 2 Party Preferred (all booths): LNP 38.5 (-18.6) ALP 61.5 (+18.6) #qldpol #auspol]

  43. zoidlord

    More like Stand by me.

  44. silentmajority

    Prince Charles is a hospital booth. Makes sense now.

    🙂

  45. lefty e

    Baseball bats await Newman.

  46. silentmajority

    A fab result for Labor

    Yay!

  47. lefty e

    It’d be a brave punter who’d imagine the QLD ALP could win government from this position, but I tell you: its gonna be bloody close.

  48. confessions

    [It’d be a brave punter who’d imagine the QLD ALP could win government from this position, but I tell you: its gonna be bloody close.]

    The thing about how things are travelling is that the LNP have turned a massive parliamentary majority into a potentially close-run bid for a second term, while at the same time exposing their own leader to losing his seat.

    If Newman is turfed by his constituents, yet the LNP are re-elected, who is the next leader?

  49. lefty e

    That factorwillcertainlyplay on the punters’ minds Confessions.

    Newma hopes of holding Ashgrove are objectively slim. If the LNP dont find him another, this will speak volumes about their attitude to their own leader.

  50. WeWantPaul

    [The thing about how things are travelling is that the LNP have turned a massive parliamentary majority into a potentially close-run bid for a second term]

    Well there is plenty of time for Newman to gerrymander the boundaries so he can’t lose.

  51. confessions

    leftye:

    Newman made quite a song and dance a couple of months ago by insisting that he was the preselected LNP candidate for Ashgrove.

    When a few of us discussed this a couple of weeks ago, I surmised that he was attempting to emulate a Howard in going down fighting, hoping that maybe appearing stoic and unflinched would count for something with his constituents in the end, esp given he’s a first termer.

    I guess we’ll see what happens between now and March. Newman being a first termer might be the wild card in this instance?

  52. sceptic

    Maybe that’s the strategy , go to the election offering Newman as a sacrifice, with the electorate being certain they get a new premier.

  53. ShowsOn

    We stuck it right up them!

  54. Just Me

    Now that’s a swing. 🙂

  55. confessions

    sceptic:

    Yeah, but who? Newman’s front bench screams shifty, blokesville white shoe brigaders.

  56. lefty e

    A friend of mine (also an ex-QLDer like me) reckon they could engineer a by-election after the general election.

    I tend to disagree somewhat: the Nats are still the larger membership force, and I reckon theyll lt Newman walk into history.

  57. lefty e

    And my assessment is that first timer status aint what it used to be.

    Will still be a factor seat by seat with incumbemency honeymoons etc, but is it something governments can still rely on? I think those days are gone, as Napthine will soon discover.

  58. Rex Douglas

    Would the LNP dump a 1st term Premier to save the furniture ?

  59. confessions

    [the Nats are still the larger membership force, and I reckon theyll lt Newman walk into history.]

    Well, on the face of it this seems to be bearing out with Newman’s insistence that he remain in Ashgrove.

    And if you’re right about the Nats holding the majority membership then OMG who might Qlders end up with as Premier if Newman is felled? The mind boggles.

  60. confessions

    leftye:

    I don’t think govts have ever been able to rely on the so-called sophomore effect, and it’d be a fool govt which did IMO.

    But that said, according to Mumble the phenomenon does seem to hold legitimacy.

  61. Dan Gulberry

    😆 😆 😆

    (No need to say anything else.)

  62. Kevin Bonham

    Swing is a few points higher than I would have expected, though I did think the LNP candidate came across poorly.

  63. zoidlord

    @Kevin

    They prob chosen that candidate on purpose.

  64. rossmcg

    I know nothing of qld politics, but is it inconceivable that Newman could be dumped? The Victorian libs did it to Ted, it happened in the NT and to Rudd as well.

    I don’t doubt that the talent pool is shallow but lack of talent was never a handicap in politics

  65. Kevin Bonham

    zoidlord@64

    @Kevin

    They prob chosen that candidate on purpose.

    The thought did cross my mind a few times.

  66. Kevin Bonham

    lefty e@58

    And my assessment is that first timer status aint what it used to be.

    Will still be a factor seat by seat with incumbemency honeymoons etc, but is it something governments can still rely on? I think those days are gone, as Napthine will soon discover.

    First term status was never what it used to be. 22% of first-term state governments in the last 60 years have lost. Just hasn’t happened for a while.

    Sophomore effect is not at all likely to save Napthine. It might well save the LNP in Queensland though.

  67. pedant

    Kevin Bonham @ 67: I do wonder whether the data we have on the sophomore effect is relevant. You tend to get lots of new members when there’s a change of government with a big swing. Usually new governments enjoy a honeymoon, and the sophomores can proudly proclaim their membership of a team which has some enduring popularity. How much evidence do we have of a significant sophomore effect when the representatives in question are supporters of a government with a collapsing support base?

  68. Rocket Rocket

    As a one-time Queenslander what can I say? Came back from seeing St.Kilda break their eleven game losing streak, and find that Campbell Newman has extended his losing streak to two.

    I don’t think anyone in the LNP will challenge him before the next election for two reasons.

    1. None of them has the guts
    2. They can all see that he will probably lose in Ashgrove but the LNP will still probably win, so after he is out they can proclaim a “new era” without Newman.

  69. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@68

    Kevin Bonham @ 67: I do wonder whether the data we have on the sophomore effect is relevant. You tend to get lots of new members when there’s a change of government with a big swing. Usually new governments enjoy a honeymoon, and the sophomores can proudly proclaim their membership of a team which has some enduring popularity. How much evidence do we have of a significant sophomore effect when the representatives in question are supporters of a government with a collapsing support base?

    In terms of something like a 10% swing against a first-term government it’s not a very common scenario. The Howard federal government in 1998 copped a 4.6% swing, losing the 2PP, and at that election the swing against it in the sophomore seats it won from opposition in 1996 was 1.5 points lower than the national average.

    But I don’t think sophomore effect is really about links to the government; I think it’s really just about the “oh I’ve heard of them” factor in voting.

  70. Rocket Rocket

    So I believe the real question is who will be Premier after the next election. I still expect it to be someone from the LNP – Seeney? Springborg? Emerson? any takers??

  71. Kevin Bonham

    Something else I think we can say about the by-election: dirt campaign attempt didn’t work, perhaps backfired even.

  72. Rocket Rocket

    kb 72 – I think the backfiring has only begun. It will come out who leaked the info about Lynham’s “overpayment” and I have a gut feeling these revelations could be very bad news for the LNP.

  73. pedant

    Kevin Bonham @ 70: I take your points. I do wonder, however, whether it will help a sophomore to have his or her name recognised because of association with an unpopular government or premier. My point, I guess, is that if the electorate collectively has s*** on the liver with a government – of the type which produces a 10% swing rather than a 4.6% swing – will any local effects really be of much help?

  74. Rocket Rocket

    confessions, lefty e

    Just read back to your posts about leadership. I suppose the fact that no-one in the party was willing to stand aside (or push someone else aside) to put Newman into Parliament before the last election gives an indication of the deep and abiding love his fellow LNP Parliamentarians have for Campbell Newman. I would so especially the “N” ones.

    So now he is really stuck – if he “jumps ship” from Ashgrove after this by-election result he is basically saying to Queenslanders that he hasn’t got the b*lls for the fight and knows that he and his Governmnet are in trouble.

    So I still predict he will contest Ashgrove, and in his party, (to quote from The Holy Grail) ther will be “much rejoicing”. And even more rejoicing if he loses Ashgrove but the LNP retain Government. Politicians are such ungrateful beasts really!

  75. Rocket Rocket

    pedant 74 – you know things have shifted when you look at their office windows and all trace of “LNP” has been removed, and all photos of their leader have gone. In their electorate material they start aggressively promoting themselves as “Member for xxx” with no mention of LNP or Newman.

  76. pedant

    Rocket Rocket @ 71: If the LNP wins but Mr Newman loses, one would expect the LNP collectively to open up the caviar and say thank God. The ALP should be emphasising that a vote for the LNP is a vote for Mr Newman. And Mr Newman of course is in a cleft stick: he runs the risk of foundering in his current seat, but to jump ship and head for a safer seat could be portrayed as defeatism and cowardice.

  77. confessions

    Rocket:

    If Newman isn’t returned at the next election someone will have to stump up as leader. My questions was who is the next likely post-Newman candidate?

  78. pedant

    Rocket Rocket @ 76: We seem to be of similar minds. Re removal of references to the LNP: there’s also the sauve qui peut moment when backbenchers decide their only hope of survival is to dissent publicly from some of the government’s less popular moves. Something to watch for in the coming months.

  79. Rocket Rocket

    pedant – (I am joking) – maybe the ALP shoudl not contest Ashgrove to make such a point believable.

    But then a PUP candidate would probably beat him.

    In all seriousness this may become a minor problem for Labor – if it becomes apparent in the lead-up that Newman (presuming he contests it) is absolutely “gone” in Ashgrove it may actually encourage people in other electorates to consider the possiblity of a Newman-less LNP Government and not swing against them as badly.

    I just can’t see Labor winning in Queensland – much as I would like a “trifecta” in Vic/Qld/NT where I have lived!

  80. Rocket Rocket

    pedant 79 – yes, that is a fascinating “tipping point” and it usually starts with someone who knows they are a “oncer” and has nothing to lose. Then it spreads to the mid-range seats, and eventually to Ministers in loseable electorates.

    Then the cock crows.

    Of course some of the “goners” may jump ship to PUP or KAP before the end when they realise there are not enough lifeboats for them “third class” passengers.

  81. pedant

    Rocket Rocket @ 80: Yes, that’s possible. The other delightful post-election scenario would be the LNP needing the support of PUP members to form a government. Given Mr Palmer’s hatred of Mr Newman, presumably a pre-condition for such PUP support would be the casting of a re-elected Mr Newman into the outer darkness. Shades of Earle Page kyboshing Billy Hughes in the early 1920s, and Sir John McEwen doing the same to Billy McMahon after the death of Harold Holt.

  82. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@74

    Kevin Bonham @ 70: I take your points. I do wonder, however, whether it will help a sophomore to have his or her name recognised because of association with an unpopular government or premier.

    That problem affects any sitting member. That said, we’re not looking at a government that’s going to be trailing 40:60. At the moment we’re looking at a government that is still polling OK, except that it looks horrible because of the size of the swing since last election.

    Sophomore effect only does so much. If the state swing is 10 points then it might be 8.5 in the sophomore seats and 11.5 in the rest (on average) for example. Even that would make a few seats difference still.

  83. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@82

    Rocket Rocket @ 80: Yes, that’s possible. The other delightful post-election scenario would be the LNP needing the support of PUP members to form a government. Given Mr Palmer’s hatred of Mr Newman, presumably a pre-condition for such PUP support would be the casting of a re-elected Mr Newman into the outer darkness. Shades of Earle Page kyboshing Billy Hughes in the early 1920s, and Sir John McEwen doing the same to Billy McMahon after the death of Harold Holt.

    I could easily see it panning out this way too.

  84. pedant

    Kevin Bonham @ 83: Another element of the equation is that if people are convinced that the LNP cannot lose – and that seems to be the shared opinion here on PB – then voters might well approach the next general election as if it were a by-election at which they could safely cast a protest vote.

  85. Rocket Rocket

    pedant 85 – yes I remember the Liberals winning minority govt in ACT in 1995 by basically saying “We can’t win, but give the Labor Govt a kick in the pants” (I really think they used the phrase ‘kick in the pants’ but I could be wrong.

    So “Vote out Campbell Newman if you are in Ashgrove, as for the rest of us – let’s give the LNP a kick in the pants” could be the way to go.

  86. pedant

    Rocket Rocket @ 86: I remember hearing the comment from people who were around politics at the time that there was a similar explanation for the near defeat of the Menzies government at the 1961 federal election.

  87. roger bottomley

    Bludgers one and all. I am just back from the Stafford party at Crushers. Our booth showed about 57-43 to Labor. This is upper middle class Brisbane. Ave house price about $800k.

    We fucked them over! Woo hoo.

  88. Rocket Rocket

    And the Victorian Libs and Nats swear that’s why Kennett fell in 1999 – that people didn’t really believe they were voting out the Government. Who knows? But I think this can happen a bit. In non-compulsory lands like UK/USA they probably just don’t vote.

    I once asked english psephologist David Butler why Australians often returned moderately unpopular governments for one last “chance” before slaughtering them at the subsequent election, and he said he thought it was to do with compulsory voting – that in the UK those moderately unhappy with a government but not enamoured with the opposition just wouldn’t vote, whereas here enough of them stay with the “inertia” and keep govts in. (often not helping them in the longer run eg Vic 1988, NSW 2007)

  89. ShowsOn

    We shoved it so far up them I think it will take them 20 years to find it.

  90. pedant

    Great man David Butler: He was in Canberra in April last year, and gave a first rate talk at ANU, quite remarkable considering that he turns 90 later this year. He’s always been one of the most perceptive commentators on Australian electoral politics.

  91. roger bottomley

    Shows. I saw Newman today in Stafford. He was bent over like Houdini looking for the missile the good burghers of Stafford had just shoved up his rectum.

  92. pedant

    Roger Bottomley @ 88: I presume someone has a letter in to the ECQ seeking prosecution of whoever in the LNP put up the false signs. The mere fact that it failed as a tactic shouldn’t be the end of it.

  93. roger bottomley

    Pedant, there are a few photos of Can’t Do standing next to the illegal signs. I agree, they should be prosecuted. You should have seen this knob in our booth trying to redact the offensive words.

    Tories = Tools

  94. ShowsOn

    [Roger Bottomley @ 88: I presume someone has a letter in to the ECQ seeking prosecution of whoever in the LNP put up the false signs. The mere fact that it failed as a tactic shouldn’t be the end of it.]
    Photos?

  95. pedant

    roger bottomley @ 94: One would assume that they carried an authorisation, and I would guess whoever authorised them would be the first target.

    It would have been nice if the ALP booth workers had had a texta to offer to their counterparts.

  96. pedant

    The LNP types seem stupid enough to try to interfere with the course of justice, which would certainly help to keep the story alive and kicking.

  97. roger bottomley

    Pedant, it was quite hilarious watching this knob from the LNP using black gaffer tape to redact their own signs.

  98. Martin B

    If the LNP win, Newman loses and the ex-Nats hold the whip hand then surely it will be Premier Springborg: Seeney is clearly unacceptable and there is, I think, no one else.

    I do indeed say not to count out an engineered by-election in the interests of “what people want”. I think a post-election scenario will be a different situation. Newman will certainly stand in Ashgrove – to do else would be weak – but may still again get the numbers from outside the party room.

    However I increasingly think that the next election will lead to a hung parliament leading to minority ALP government. Labor will revert to the mean – and then some – in Brisbane while PUP will take seats from the LNP in the hinterland and regions.

  99. lefty e

    [First term status was never what it used to be. 22% of first-term state governments in the last 60 years have lost. Just hasn’t happened for a while.]

    Interesting KB,thanks

    [Sophomore effect is not at all likely to save Napthine. It might well save the LNP in Queensland though.]

    Agree. It’ll be close in QLD though.

    Agree Martin – probably Springborg. Nats turn next etc. Could yet be Palaszczuk* though.

    (* we were once pals in our undergrad days, and yet I still have to google the spelling every time)

  100. Martin B

    I suspect that in true PUP style they will intervene in ALP leadership as a condition of confidence and there will be enough internal ALP division to swing the numbers in favour of, maybe, Dick. This is a speculative prediction.

  101. Jackol

    If PUP hold the balance of power post-election (heaven help us all, really), but:
    * PUP really aren’t friends to the ALP and would almost certainly offer to form government with the LNP. The PUP strategy has become very clear with their Senate shenanigans of the last couple of weeks – they want to dominate the LNP, and the way to do that is to drive the agenda over a hapless LNP. PUP have no interest in dominating the ALP.

    * In the unlikely event that PUP did offer to install the ALP as a minority government the ALP really have to say “thanks, but no thanks”. It would be madness to form government reliant on PUP support.

  102. zoidlord

    ALP should defiantly say no to minority gov or offer support to Clive.

    Clive wants to benefit himself.

  103. ShowsOn

    [ALP should defiantly say no to minority gov or offer support to Clive.

    Clive wants to benefit himself.]
    Agree. A Coalition government with Palmer would last 6 months tops.

    Labor should stand aside and just wait for that to fall apart before claiming majority government at a subsequent election.

  104. absolutetwaddle

    If federal Labor had any sense of irony they’d tie the result of this election to the repeal of the carbon tax. Obviously the voters miss it. :pictureasmugsmiliehere:

  105. blackburnpseph

    The danger for the alp is that disaffected lnp voters will turn to the pup but their preferences will not go to labor. Optional preferential voting and poosible pup preferencing are the wild cards of the next qld election. Labor needs to convert the disaffected lnp votes to alp votes to surely win.

  106. Socrates

    Campbell Newman is in serious denial:
    [The Premier laid the blame for the LNP’s defeat firmly at the feet of his former assistant health minister Chris Davis, whose resignation triggered the by-election.]
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-says-lnp-members-understand-how-you-feel-after-stafford-byelection-loss-20140719-zuw7s.html#ixzz37xWlgSvH

    So it is all the fault of the guy who complained about the risk of corruption and ego-mania? It can’t possibly be the fault of the ego maniac. Clearly, Stafford voters disagreed.

  107. Timothy Reichle

    If you look at by elections swings for QLD only from 1991.

    their is almost no correlation between size of the swings between the by election swing and the main election swing.

  108. Peter Murphy

    On what Socrates linked to at 107:

    Dr Davis resigned after a public falling out with the Newman government over doctors’ contracts and changes to electoral donation laws.

    “Clearly, the attacks on the government by the former member were a factor in this election as well – it did us no favours and did Bob’s campaign no favours,” Mr Newman said.

    A local member resigns in protest, so the Premier decides to blame him for the by-election campaign? That’s why I reckon the swing is going to be north of 10% come 2015. Most governments – say, like Howard – have a rudimentary ability to learn from their mistakes. Newman has none.

  109. Paul

    The comments here about the next Qld election being close are ludicrous. The 2015 Qld election will be a LNP massacre. It’s a simple 1, 2, 3. i.e. Redcliff, Stafford then all of Qld.

  110. Socrates

    Peter Murphy

    Exactly, hence my ego-maniac reference to Newman. If anything the article was polite to Campbell, ommitting several other concerns Davis had with his high handed manner. Even in his “we are listening” line, Newman talks about tough decisions and redoubling efforts. He does not say anywhere he intends to change a single policy. Steady as she sinks, for Capn Newman.

  111. Raaraa

    Davis at least listened to his constituents and the polling that his office conducted at least show some consolation to him.
    Newman, on the other hand, is in a world of his own.

  112. Martin B

    [The danger for the alp is that disaffected lnp voters will turn to the pup but their preferences will not go to labor. Optional preferential voting and poosible pup preferencing are the wild cards of the next qld election. Labor needs to convert the disaffected lnp votes to alp votes to surely win.]

    I strongly suspect that enough votes will come back to Labor to give them their ‘normal’ Brisbane seats. It might be a problem for the ALP in Ipswich and regional cities, although I still suspect PUP will be more of a problem for the LNP there.

  113. ruawake

    Comparisons to the last Qld State elections are all but meaningless, the Katter Party has imploded an PUP has not captured its voters (apparently, I see no evidence of this).

    Some seats that should fall easily won’t. Others that nobody expected to change hands will.

    I am hearing Ted Sorensen in Hervey Bay is telling anyone who will listen he is going to lose in March.

  114. Raaraa

    I wonder if the charges against the mayor of Ipswich will have any bearing against the state seat.

  115. kakuru

    Paul:

    [The comments here about the next Qld election being close are ludicrous. The 2015 Qld election will be a LNP massacre.]

    The LNP will certainly take a hit in the next state election, but I wouldn’t get too excited. The magnitude of the anti-LNP swing in this by-election was in a large part due to Newton’s Third Law of Motion.

  116. ruawake

    [I wonder if the charges against the mayor of Ipswich will have any bearing against the state seat.]

    I doubt it, most local councils in SE Qld do have have party affiliation in elections. Paul Pissale is not associated with any brand of politics in public.

  117. Kevin Bonham

    ruawake@114

    Comparisons to the last Qld State elections are all but meaningless, the Katter Party has imploded an PUP has not captured its voters (apparently, I see no evidence of this).

    PUP has indeed not captured most of the KAP voters. There was a ReachTEL which asked those saying they’d vote PUP to self-report how they voted in 2012. Self-reporting tends to be slightly inaccurate and perhaps especially so in this case, but the percentage who self-reported KAP was so low (15%, ie about 2% of all voters) that it was clear most of the KAPpers had not switched to PUP.

    The hard core of KAP voters, the 3.7% who voted for them at the federal election in Queensland, are rather more PUP-supportive. In most seats between 40 and 55% of their preferences went to PUP. (Lower in Moreton and Griffith, higher in Maranoa where the PUP candidate was a Bjelke-Petersen).

  118. mimhoff

    Premier Springborg?

    How many of the Beattie/Bligh elections were won over not letting a National become Premier again?

  119. DRinMelb

    Premier “The Borg”…… Dog help us!

  120. Martin B

    Other than Borg and Seeney, the other old Nats in Cabinet would seem to be Jack Dempsey, John McVeigh, Andrew Powell, Andrew Cripps and Steven Dickson. If I’ve missed any, or anyone thinks that one of these latter – or someone currently outside Cabinet – is a real shot then I’d be interested to hear.