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Seat of the week: Lilley

With the inner northern Brisbane neighbourhood of Stafford fresh in the mind after yesterday’s by-election, a visit to the federal electorate that covers its northern half and areas further to the east, held for Labor by Wayne Swan.

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.

Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.

Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.

Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.

Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.

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  • 51
    Martin B
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Fran

    Yes that DT cover/article really was quite remarkable.

    nappin

    my cynical view is that the Govt will simply promote that the Australian people have had $550 returned to them with the axing of the toxic tax. Through the media, the perception becomes reality and we move on.

    Yes, I’m sure that’s so. It really is odd that no one ever sought to make the case that the CPI rise was only half that expected. I suppose people decided to just not talk about the costs of the CT. But how many times have we seen that just vacating the field gives the people who do want to talk about it a free run to say whatever they like?

  • 52
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Dutch PM has expressed anger over what is happening at the site overnight.

  • 53
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    Milne blaming JG (in particular) and Labor while Benson and Kelly salivated.

    What was Milne blaming JG for? Not selling well enough?

  • 54
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    Henderson polishing the Abbott turd by gushing how strong Abbott has been.

  • 55
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Ah good Insiders passes the test and shifts away from MH17

  • 56
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Elder’s latest

    The task of holding government to account extends to would-be governments before an election. The press gallery has failed in that task, which meant that voters were misinformed about their choices at the last election. The idea that the press gallery did its job while other aspects of the political system - including the voters - failed at theirs, is ridiculous. It enables the press gallery to persist in its failure and frustrates any hope that better policy and government might even be recognised, let alone come about.

    http://www.andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/brand-positioning.html

  • 57
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    Ahh… the Abbott ‘strong leadership’ meme has commenced…

  • 58
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    BW

    Abbott has met his match in Putin because Putin is a bigger bully a bigger liar.

    Well a bigger bully, obviously, but I doubt he can lie on a grander scale or more insistently than Abbott. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine he could keep up.

  • 59
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Repatriation of any remains should be the first priority of this govt

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/mh17-crash-site-a-farce-as-amateurs-control-recovery-of-bodies-20140720-zuxd4.html

  • 60
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    From what I have gleaned so far, nothing our govt has said or done has improved the situation regarding recovery of remains. I just dont see what strong leadership Abbott has projected so far other than words

  • 61
    sceptic
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    Fran
    That’s not all Tony & Putin have in common

    Both go for the narcissistic he man exposure shots.
    Wouldn’t be suppressed if they both have the same knuckle dragging walk

  • 62
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    I have been wondering what the importance of the flight recorders is in the MH17 matter.

    What significant information will they provide that we do not already know?

    How would the Russians see it benefiting them to hide the flight recorders?

    It seems no-one is seriously disputing that it was a Russian manufactured SAM fired by the rebels that brought the aircraft down.

    The issues of real interest are things that happened on the ground, not really what happened in the air.

    Time for a serious criminal investigation to be launched and arrest warrants issued for those mentioned on the recording issued by the Ukranians. Such an investigation can only be run by international authorities.

  • 63
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Abbott even admitted this morning that he hasn’t been able to make any headway with the Russian govt. His calls for whatever are simply blowing out into the ether and falling on deaf ears.

  • 64
    kevjohnno
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    poroti

    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    The GG are over the moon over the by-election result .In small print 1/3 of the way down the online front page their excited headline.

    Labor wins Qld by-election

    Murdoch’s Brisbane rag The Sunday Mail couldn’t bear to mention it till page 16 :-)

  • 65
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 42m
    The Moscow line: Ukrainian fighter jets were seen following MH17 minutes before ... http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/pro-kremlin-media-accuses-west-of-propaganda-war-against-russia/503755.html

  • 66
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Julie Bishop heads to US as pressure mounts on Russia over tragedy

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-20/live-world-mourns-victims-of-malaysia-airline-mh17-disaster/5609702

    That doesn’t feel reassuring.

  • 67
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    bemused

    I’m no expert but maybe the MH17 onboard radar tracked the flight path of the missile from the ground up.

  • 68
    billie
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Raaa @ 2

    To those who asked why Malaysian Airlines flew that route, here is an infograph showing the flights prior to the crash

    http://i.imgur.com/WlMeqIY.jpg

    A short analysis of the above data indicates that if you fly to western Europe via south east Asia you will overfly the Donesk region

  • 69
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Precisely. Abbott is talking tough, but even the remains of the poor souls are not being handled properly. So what is this talk of strong leadership all about. This has the same feel as his statements of MH370 being found. We all know how that turned out

  • 70
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Rex Douglas@67

    bemused

    I’m no expert but maybe the MH17 onboard radar tracked the flight path of the missile from the ground up.

    Impossible according to our resident experts as civil airliners don’t have radar to do that. Their radar looks ahead mainly.

    It seems most likely they never knew what hit them.

  • 71
    BH
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    What was Milne blaming JG for? Not selling well enough?

    WWP I actually agree that the moment JG said wtte ‘call it what you like … carbon tax, whatever’ was, in hindsight, the catalyst for Abbott. Milne went further saying all JG wanted was to be in Govt and PM and wasn’t sufficiently across CC detail. That too may be true. We’ll find out in October when Julia’s book is released.

    Benson and Kelly were all smiles until Milne expounded on climate change. She’s so well informed and I appreciate that but her smugness is irritating.

    BTW Adelaidians – lucky you, JG is speaking at Writer’s Week in October. A rellie rang to say she and a group had booked for it.

  • 72
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    kevjohnno

    Bloody hell. The Sunday Mail’s effort makes the GG look positively triumphalist.

  • 73
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Re Fran @7: Insiders just featured that front page on Talking Pictures.

    The only question is whether Newscorp Australia is the propaganda wing of the LNP and their backers, or whether the LNP is the local political wing of Newscorp.

  • 74
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    bemused

    It seems most likely they never knew what hit them.

    Thank goodness for small mercies

  • 75
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Maybe zoomster’s right: the media will use MH17 to rehabilitate Abbott.

  • 76
    sceptic
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    This unfortunately may be the best bit of news out of MH17….
    Instantly dead or unconscious …..

    That’s the best guess of James Vosswinkel, a trauma surgeon who led a definitive study of TWA Flight 800 that exploded and crashed off New York’s Long Island in 1996, killing all 230 on the flight. The Malaysian plane carried 298.

    Total destruction: wreckage from Malaysia Airlines MH17. Photo: AFP
    Dr Vosswinkel’s research found that trauma in a mid-air explosion occurs from three sources: the force of the blast, the massive deceleration when a plane going 800km/h stops in mid-air, and the impact of the fall.
    Additionally, the loss of cabin pressure can cause hypoxia within seconds at 33,000 feet, leading to loss of consciousness.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/moment-of-impact-mh17s-final-seconds-20140719-zuuqh.html#ixzz37xhkFSNN

  • 77
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Our msm have been next to useless for a long time. From what i have seen of Abbott so far, it does not endear any confidence, but time will tell

  • 78
    Darn
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    There was talk on the 3aw news this morning about Abbott introducing a cash handout so that middle and lower income families can have a nanny coming to their home rather than using a child care centre. Two comments:

    1. I’ll be very surprised if we don’t find that most of the handout will go to people who don’t really need it. (which is the Liberal way).

    2. The fact that the government is talking about it now suggests to me that they are in panic mode. I would have expected that this potentially popular measure would have been wheeled out much closer to the election.

  • 79
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Darn

    That flies against their whole meme of a budget emergency and the end of entitlement!!

    Sorry but that sounds totally and utterly stupid to me

  • 80
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Not to mention the nightmare of regulating nannies coming to your home using govt money.

    This is even more tricky than the insulation scheme. Good grief. They are losing the plot

  • 81
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    @Darn/78

    Interesting, Cash Handouts? Didn’t Labor get blamed for cash handouts? will these Cash handouts go to dead families or dead nannys?

    Just like how Liberals and liberal bots blamed Labor on $900 check-ques going to dead people.

  • 82
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    @Victoria/80

    I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some nanny company that would benefit from this.

  • 83
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Re Darn @78: that would only make sense if the Government were to call an early election / DD.

  • 84
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    Darn

    Some Liberal mob in W.A. recently called for women from Asia to be allowed to come to Australia to be nannies. Work for peanuts so lots of money to be saved being their “selling point” .

  • 85
    lizzie
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Why hasn’t Abbott donned a high vis vest and flown straight to the crash zone to find Australian remains?

  • 86
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    I am acquainted with a family who have young girls on working visas from overseas as live in nannies. As soon as their work visa expires, they employ another young girl, once food and accommodation are taken into consideration, the net amount paid to these nannies is quite low.

    I have strong personal views about this, and none of it is positive

  • 87
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    There was talk on the 3aw news this morning about Abbott introducing a cash handout so that middle and lower income families can have a nanny coming to their home rather than using a child care centre.

    Why even raise that now when the govt is trying to leverage as much support as it can off the MH17 crash?

  • 88
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    BH@71


    What was Milne blaming JG for? Not selling well enough?


    WWP I actually agree that the moment JG said wtte ‘call it what you like … carbon tax, whatever’ was, in hindsight, the catalyst for Abbott. Milne went further saying all JG wanted was to be in Govt and PM and wasn’t sufficiently across CC detail. That too may be true. We’ll find out in October when Julia’s book is released.

    You really think so?

  • 89
    rossmcg
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Zoid

    As we speak the spivs will be setting up the nanny supply companies.

    Well known way to make money: start a business supplying something that people get government subsidy for.

    ABC childcare ring a bell?

  • 90
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    A neighbour’s daughter went to the UK to nanny when she finished uni. She’s now in demand and works exclusively for the very wealthy. Last I heard she was nannying in Dubai but because the family divide their time between Dubai, UK and Europe she travels quite a bit.

  • 91
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Rossmcg

    Can you imagine the regulatory nightmare of this? Childcare centres have to comply with safety regulations in terms of the equipment, furniture etc on the premises.

  • 92
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Confessions

    All well and good. There is an agreement between the family and the nanny, and payment is made by them from their own funds.

    Can you imagine, govt funds being utilised for this and the regulatory requirements that need to be attached to it?

  • 93
    psyclaw
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Lizzie #85

    Bit early to rule out the fluoro vest visit. Could happen.

  • 94
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    confessions

    I am not a very trusting person, and the idea of a young stranger looking after children under the age of five horrifies me

  • 95
    billie
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Why not employ Aussies under 30 as live-in nannies?

    You never know the nanny could be one of nursing graduates unable to find work because of the overseas nurses employed on 457 visas

    Or she could be a graduate teacher unable to find work – there are only 2000 education vacancies Australia-wide refer http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/jul/14/why-australian-voters-care-more-about-jobs

    Of course who will police the welfare of these employees, will they admit they have a job because then their 6 month wait for unemployment benefits will reset.

    The family will want to collect their measly handout, further screwing their underground worker.

  • 96
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    No way I’d be responsible for someone else’s kids.

    Govt handouts for nannies is just ridiculous.

  • 97
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    i should add that in a childcare centre environment, there is a ratio system in place depending on the age group of children. Depending on the size of the centre, there is usually several adults in attendance at any given time. There is always extra pairs of eyes seeing what is going on in that environment. What safeguards would there be in the home?

  • 98
    rossmcg
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    The whole idea is so full holes it is scary. But when did that ever stop the Tories looking after their own. And besides, they don’t like red tape so there would be no regulation.

    There are nannys and there are child minders. A niece and her husband who live in London employ one of the former who comes complete with all sorts of childcare qualifications. She costs a bit but in their jobs they can afford it.

    The idea that young women will be brought from overseas just turns my stomach. I recall quite a few cases in Asia and the Middle East where women from mainly the phillipines I think have been abused.

  • 99
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Neither would I. Being responsible for my own, was stressful enough!!

  • 100
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    WWP I actually agree that the moment JG said wtte ‘call it what you like … carbon tax, whatever’ was, in hindsight, the catalyst for Abbott

    I don’t mark her as hard for that as many, Abbott would still have called it a tax and Newscorp and shockjock radio would have backed Abbott and criticised Gillard for wasting political energy over a fight on words … it was lose lose.

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