tip off

Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor

Personal ratings for Clive Palmer and a preferred Treasurer question spice up a poll result that’s otherwise much like all the others lately.

What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.

UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.

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  • 101
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    The Victorian government’s next cunning plan to lose the election.

    Parents fear loss of state allowance will affect children's education

    Her household runs on the smell of an oily rag, with an annual income of between $18,000 and $24,000. But extra costs always pop up. At the start of this year Ms Griffith's daughter had her year 5 camp: $300 for three days.

    Next year Ms Griffith worries she will not be able to afford school camps at all when the Victorian government abolishes the Education Maintenance Allowance.

    This payment provides more than 200,000 Victorian students from low-income families with up to $300 to help cover the cost of books, uniforms, excursions and, increasingly, computers.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/parents-fear-loss-of-state-allowance-will-affect-childrens-education-20140720-3c9cu.html

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Michael Kirby on 24 now

  • 103
    meher baba
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    How trite it is to raise the Palestinian issue in the context of MH-17.

    I for one will start having more sympathy for the Palestinians when they ditch (and/or wrest themselves from the thrall of) Islamic extremism.

    Islamic extremism is the third great evil political cult of the modern era after Communism and Nazism. Say what you like about Putin, he has fought it every step of the way. The US fluctuates in its approach to the cult and is in many ways to blame for the power it now wields: eg, tacitly helping to set up Al Qaida in the 1980s, giving much help – in the guise of promoting democracy – to disciples of the cult in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria.

    And many western middle-class lefties seem to be in love with Hamas: a totally toxic outfit which makes the likes of Tony Abbott look like Mahatma Gandhi. But, of course, Hamas hates the US and Israel: the international bogeymen of choice for your average western middle-class lefty.

    I’m really sad about innocent civilians dying all over the Middle East. I’m really sorry for the Palestinian children and for any moderate Palestinian caught up in this who doesn’t support Hamas (although I understand that Hamas has already made their lives a misery regardless of any Israeli bombardment). I also feel deeply for the innocent residents of Mosul and surrounds. They certainly have legitimate grievances against the former Republican leaders of the US (and the former Labour leaders of the UK).

    Global politics is complex: not just a matter of goodies vs baddies. The Israeli Government under the sleazy Netanyahu certainly aren’t angels. But, let’s be clear, they didn’t start the current conflict in Gaza and they have every right to respond.

    At least, I haven’t yet seen any sort of convincing argument as to why Israel shouldn’t respond. If someone has one, please post it.

  • 104
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    How trite it is to raise the Palestinian issue in the context of MH-17.

    I for one will start having more sympathy for the Palestinians when they ditch (and/or wrest themselves from the thrall of) Islamic extremism.

    Ahhh so it is their fault. Just what Adam would say. None of them are innocent all deserve to die. Particularly those kids on the beach playing soccer they were very evil.

    It is beyond me how anyone could think like that.

    Of course there is a comparison, fewer people died essentially by accident and a greater number of people were murdered by a State and the few get all the media, weird anybody even noticed.

  • 105
    victoria
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    Here is audio of Tanya Plibersek interview as referred to earlier

    http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/2014/07/bst_20140721_0736.mp3

  • 106
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    Baba

    Israel can stop having extremists run its government. Its the people’s fault they keep voting warmongers into office.

    The government Israel has because the extremists killed a PM for actually working for peace.

  • 107
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    Painting by numbers.

    á la Abbott:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SiiNUY94dc

  • 108
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    meher bab

    At least, I haven’t yet seen any sort of convincing argument as to why Israel shouldn’t respond

    So the Palestinians are to just keep smiling politely as Israel continues to expand the area of land stolen from them ?

  • 109
    meher baba
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    WWP@97. Nothing wrong with Rudd having an ego. But senior Labor figures knew -or should have known – that Rudd was an incompetent show pony. But they not only made him leader, they made him all-powerful. Labor should still be on government and should have been a reasonable show of getting a fourth term. In my view, the elevation of Rudd to the leadership in 2006 is the only reason this isn’t the case. Beazley or even Gillard – unfettered by having to deal with Rudd – would have achieved this. We’d have an ETS firmly in place and a whole lot of other good things.
    And no PM Tony Abbott.

  • 110
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Zoomster continues to misrepresent the Greens Party policy on refugees and asylum seekers. Nothing like a meme is there to demonise your perceived ‘enemy’ ;-)

    Specific aims in its policy: http://greens.org.au/policies/immigration-refugees

    Australia to adequately contribute to the funding of and work closely with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees and other agencies assisting in the movement of asylum seekers, refugees and displaced people.

    An increase in the humanitarian quota, and offshore quotas fulfilled without reference or linkage to any onshore arrivals or other programs.

  • 111
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    All this aggro between Labor and Greens is making me want to vote informal.

  • 112
    bemused
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@82

    So Rudd is trying to rewrite history to put himself in a favourable light. Well, well, well. That puts him in very select company among politicians, doesn’t it!

    Yes, I am sure it comes as a complete shock to everyone.

    It sets him apart from every other politician who has frankly confessed their failures and shortcomings and begged the forgiveness of the electorate.

  • 113
    BK
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Neither of the ALP’s or the Greens’ agendas will have a chance as long as Abbott is power.

  • 114
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    that Rudd was an incompetent show pony

    Other than here in PB world I’m not sure there is evidence for this on any standard or on the standard of PM’s. I would put it to you that even here in PB thought bubble Abbott is a bigger and more incompetent show pony yet he brought down both Rudd and Gillard. As a mediocre PM Rudd had many competencies.

    Labor should still be on government and should have been a reasonable show of getting a fourth term.

    I’m not sure about a 4th term but if they’d stuck with Rudd like a sane party they would have got a second easy and probably a 3.

  • 115
    slothy
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Steve777 @ 95

    Dealing with the refugees who arrive in Australia is specifically our responsibility. Those in distant camps are not, except to the extent that they are the responsibility of the wider world.

    I suggest those from countries in which we’ve directly meddled, Afghanistan, Iraq, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc, or supported the actions of others such as with Iran, are our responsibility. It is time we acknowledged our part in creating millions of refugees and did all we can to remedy this instead of demonising our victims.

  • 116
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    lizzie,

    No aggro from me :-) Just providing facts to counter the memes.

  • 117
    meher baba
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    poroti@108. The settlements in occupied Palestine are a very unhelpful element in the situation. But are these what the current war with Gaza is all about? Sorry, I can’t see that.

    I can see Israel over decades making concessions and offering more. But, over that time, the Palestinians have become far more extremist and uncompromising. This in turn gives more power to the hard line elements in Israeli politics (although, interestingly, it has been the Israeli right that has consistently been most able to do deals and that might even happen again as a consequence of this conflict).

    The Palestinians have no hope of defeating Israel militarily, so what they are doing now is self-defeating, other than – as I pointed out last night – as a way of drumming-up support for third cause through the sacrifice of their civilians.

  • 118
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    guytaur @100

    You make my point for me.

    The concern you cite is about refugees who are actively trying to get to Australia, and are thus in transit camps on the way here.

    The ones I’m thinking about are sitting patiently in deserts, with no prospect of going anywhere under their own steam, waiting for any country at all to take them.

    There’s almost zero interest shown in their plight by the Greens as a party (occasional voters like jules not being what I’m talking about).

  • 119
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    I suggest those from countries in which we’ve directly meddled, Afghanistan, Iraq, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc, or supported the actions of others such as with Iran, are our responsibility. It is time we acknowledged our part in creating millions of refugees and did all we can to remedy this instead of demonising our victims.

    Greens Party policy aim:

    Australia has additional responsibilities to refugees from countries where Australian defence personnel have been deployed in conflict situations.

  • 120
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Interestingly, Rudd already seems to be being written out of history.

    Nearly every reference you see in the media (and on social media as well) is to ‘the Gillard government’.

    The Rudd bookends seem to be regarded as irrelevant.

  • 121
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    peg

    so, as I said, ‘almost zero interest’.

  • 122
    meher baba
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    WWP@114. You have clearly had no direct experience of working with or for Rudd. I believe that, if they’d stuck with him in 2010, they almost certainly would have lost then. Rudd had basically lost the plot from early in that year. He and his team would have disintegrated under the pressure of the campaign. In my view, Labor would have done better leaving Rudd in place and copping the loss.

    But I understand why some of them thought they might do better under Gillard. But they underestimated the damage a wounded and vengeful Rudd could do to them from within.

  • 123
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    BS. To off shore or to on shore is about those arriving on our shores.

    Always has been always will be.

    Your red herring is only relevant regarding public attitudes to accepting numbers into the country.

  • 124
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    The Rudd bookends seem to be regarded as irrelevant.

    meher is right though: his legacy is shaping up to be an ugly thing. Uglier than even some of us imagined it would be.

  • 125
    muttleymcgee
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    MB 109

    Absolutely correct. Rudd’s track record on the Goss government was there for all to see, yet the Federal ALP ignored it at the time, even though Latham knew about him.
    I am also stunned that no one sorted him during his time on the backbench when he was so obviously and unforgivably disloyal.
    His daughter, Jessica writes regularly in the Brisbane Times and has political ambition, but the Rudd family are well over as far as I am concerned. Never again!

  • 126
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    zoomster,

    Your facile response is just the incentive I need to log off PB :-)

  • 127
    Mortlock
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    @ zoomster “There’s almost zero interest shown in their plight by the Greens as a party” – I have my issues with the Green’s policy, but the Greens actually want to increase our overall offshore intake, ALP want to keep it the same; the LNP want to reduce it. It is not a zero sum game, caring for on-shore arrivals does not mean one does not care of offshore arrivals. So on this count, Greens seem to show more compassion for the refugees “sitting patiently in deserts” then the two other major parties….

    You can read their policy here: http://greens.org.au/safer-pathways

    Try to base statements on research, not political perceptions…

  • 128
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    Labor must have known about Rudd before they made him LOTO and PM.

    He worked for Goss for quite a while so he wasn’t an unknown quantity.

  • 129
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    meher

    At least, I haven’t yet seen any sort of convincing argument as to why Israel shouldn’t respond. If someone has one, please post it.

    Do they need to respond? What is the goal of their response?

  • 130
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    MB @ 109

    Ultimately it is the Labor party who have to accept the bulk of the blame for selecting Rudd in the first place, despite all the warnings this very experienced and otherwise successful political organisation would have had about him. That was their real mistake, not heeding the warnings. No way around that. The rest was mostly just the various direct and indirect consequences of that choice unfolding in the real world.

    Breaks my heart to think what could so easily have been if Rudd, whose premiership started so well – GFC, apology to the stolen generation, NBN, serious moves to improve the lot of the poor and disabled, etc, – if he had possessed just a touch more humility and self-control.

    Alas not. :(

  • 131
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    Interestingly, Rudd already seems to be being written out of history.

    Nearly every reference you see in the media (and on social media as well) is to ‘the Gillard government’.

    The Rudd bookends seem to be regarded as irrelevant.

    That is likely to be a selective bias on your part.

  • 132
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Labor must have known about Rudd before they made him LOTO and PM.

    He worked for Goss for quite a while so he wasn’t an unknown quantity.

    exactly i can remember my deep disappointment the day Rudd was elected LOTO.

  • 133
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Labor reforms have largely eliminated the prospect of a repeat of Rudd/Gillard.

    Be thankful Rudd did a practical reform that has given Shorten the best security as Loto of almost any in Labor history.

    Not even LNP are doing Labor leadership as a meme.

  • 134
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    You have clearly had no direct experience of working with or for Rudd. I believe that, if they’d stuck with him in 2010, they almost certainly would have lost then.

    So you were on his personal staff?

  • 135
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    meher baba

    Israel funded Hamas to undermine the secular PLO .So an own goal there. Israeli concessions have largely involved Palestinians agreeing to live in a series of what are effectively “Bantustans” .

    The solution ? Buggered if know. Someone able to go in and knock some sense into both ides.

  • 136
    citizen
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Another headache for Putin:

    Russia’s richest businessmen are increasingly frantic that President Vladimir Putin’s policies in Ukraine will lead to crippling sanctions and are too scared of reprisal to say so publicly, billionaires and analysts said.

    If Putin doesn’t move to end the war in Ukraine in the wake of last week’s downing of a Malaysia Air jet in rebel-held territory, he risks becoming an international outcast like Belarus’s Aleksandr Lukashenko, whom the U.S. famously labeled Europe’s last dictator, one Russian billionaire said on condition of anonymity. What’s happening is bad for business and bad for Russia, he said.

    “The economic and business elite is just in horror,” said Igor Bunin, who heads the Center for Political Technology in Moscow. Nobody will speak out because of the implicit threat of retribution, Bunin said by phone yesterday. “Any sign of rebellion and they’ll be brought to their knees.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-20/russian-billionaires-in-horror-as-putin-risks-isolation.html

  • 137
    Raaraa
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Why are we even offshoring when it cost too much?

    If this is so that it discourages smugglers from bringing AS in, then it’s not working, because anywhere is better than where they are from.

  • 138
    pritu
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    Back to Rudd-Gillard. Ho bloody hum!
    Please people, enough already!

    Re. The Neilsen. I’m appalled that there are still people out there who support this infamous bunch of louts calling themselves the Australian government. Just when I thought he couldn’t sink any lower, Abbott began to sing the grovelling praises of the ignominious Japanese Imperial Army whose record remains fully unacknowledged and properly restituted for. As someone who only knew his father for the first 3 years of my life before he was taken away for the kind of treatment portrayed in The Railway Man I am still seeing red. The bastard!

  • 139
    Raaraa
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    I really wonder what the sentiments in Russia is right now. I’m sure Putin has his backers, but what about those who oppose him? What are they saying, or is everybody swept up in nationalistic pride now?

  • 140
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:57 am | Permalink

    @Raaaraa/137

    Vested interests, like back when Toll Holdings was going to build Tent City.

  • 141
    badcat
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    poroti

    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    The solution ? Buggered if know. Someone able to go in and knock some sense into both sides.

    ——————————————————–

    Poroti – always the unemotive sensible voice of reason …

    ….. ditto …. BOTH ….Russia & Ukriane

  • 142
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    “@political_alert: Acting Opposition Leader @tanya_plibersek is in Melbourne today and will hold a short doorstop interview at 1pm #auspol”

  • 143
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Holland had a $23B trade deficit with Russia in the first 9 months of the year. So they are heavily dependent on Russia. Can’t see them looking at trade sanctions.

  • 144
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Gee, the gang are sure queueing up to give Putin a kicking. It’s like the Good Old Days of the Soviet era.

    Oh sure, there’s lots of “it is alleged”, and “the evidence points to”… followed by brazen assertions as to Putin’s almost direct (or so it is insinuated) involvement in the shoot-down.

    It’s your classic Murdoch frenzy, a whip-up along text book lines.

    Abbott, not particularly trusted to lie straight in bed, is genuinely upset, of course. But it’s getting so that nowadays you can’t tell when the man is lying or telling the truth. That’s a problem shared by all boys who cry “Wolf!”.

    Tell too many lies and people get leery of you when you’re actually trying to convince them you’re speaking the truth for once.

    Pissing off Putin way back when in Indonesia wouldn’t have helped, either. It was the Let’s Play Fireman meets the Bear Wrestler. The Bear Wrestler wins. He needs to be persuaded that his dislike for Abbott can be overcome.

    In Credlin World perhaps a weekend can turn election wipeout polls into Everyone Loves Tony, but only if the starting point is a certain knowledge in the minds of the Punters that Abbott was at one time capable of being trusted, even once, even historically. Sadly the confidence cupboard is bare. He lied his way into office, tried to wheedle out of his lies, and is now paying the price.

    Stopping the Boats and Axing the Tax are just two promises, yes, ones that were kept. But what about the dozens of others he broke? What about the hundreds he never made, because he was too scared to?

    No excuses, remember?

    Now we have what could be called genuine crisis on our hands and Abbott is reduced to going on Ray Hadley to spruik his wares, and is still too terrified to do a live interview anywhere else.

    Western Sydney DEMANDS the bodies be returned!

    So Tony warns the Tsar. Ho-hum…

    There’s no nuance to the man. There’s only thuggery and threatening. Tough talk and no ability to get any action.

    We might ban Vlad from coming here, but that’s a threat that should have been made later, much later. Abbott put it out (and got Bill Shorten to tag along) and it fizzled within about three hours.

    Abbott, the windbag is full of huff and puff but he can’t blow down the Kremlin unless the Kremlin agrees. And if Abbott thinks he’s good at making threats, then he hasn’t really grasped the ability of Russian strong men to resist them, or threaten back… or to ignore him altogether. Russians have been playing this game for centuries. Abbott started a few decades in the schoolyard heavying nerds and progressed to intimidating women and Peter Reith.

    Always be wary of a man who tells you he’s your best friend, because he’s probably said that to all the girls. You can see Tony’s oiliness coming from miles away.

    Picking a fight with Putin over Bam-Bang’s birthday was an awful way to start off a relationship that one day Tony might need. But then again he only ever thinks things through to the end of the current day, or the next Newspoll. Nearly a year into the future is too much to expect from the swaggering PM, a local lout, true, but one who can’t cut it in the real game.

  • 145
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 3m

    The thing they don’t realise is that the more they try to avoid public scrutiny, the more I’m just going to dig in on it.

  • 146
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    I see a bad poll is out for the LNP.

    So its back to Rudd/Gillard and bash the Greens.

    Spot on!

  • 147
    meher baba
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Dio@128. They did know all about him, but the NSW Right and members of their “brains trust” (I use the term very loosely) thought they could make use of his popularity while keeping his excesses in check. The NSW Right is used to commanding total loyalty, even from PMs and Premiers. But Rudd was only ever going to be loyal to his own ambition. Once he became PM, he ditched every control they tried to place on him and adopted an autocratic style. Which would have been ok -up to a point – if he had been remotely competent. But he wasn’t.

    Rudd is a good actor, and he made many pious statements about having learnt from his time working for Goss that he needed to adopt a more inclusive style and listen better. He said similar things when he was brought back last year.

    But Rudd is one of those people who, whenever he is placed under pressure, goes into a bit of tizz. He is also a control freak who needs to be on the right side of any argument. He cannot lead anywhere but from the front but, when he gets in a tizz, becomes increasingly erratic and starts to wander off the track. It’s a style of leadership that destroys the confidence of subordinates and stifles their initiative.

    It also means that, if the leader becomes ill or otherwise distracted from their work, everything grinds to a halt. And this came to pass in Xmas 2009 after Copenhagen. With the consequences we have all seen.

    That’s my version of the story FWIW. It’s not the only one, of course.

  • 148
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    Steve Dalby ‏@Steve_Dalby 1m

    @joshgnosis I think it’s something like $25 per request, we’re only allowed to recover costs.

  • 149
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    Guytaur

    And he saved on predictions 13 seats for the ALP which would have gone under Gillard.

    We really should damn him!

  • 150
    bemused
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    meher baba@103


    At least, I haven’t yet seen any sort of convincing argument as to why Israel shouldn’t respond. If someone has one, please post it.

    In a word, “proportionality”.

    The Israeli response and the Palestinian civilian casualties are out of all proportion to the threat posed by Hamas.

    I am not a fan of Hamas who are probably all you say. But their largely ineffective rockets are probably seen by most Palestinians as a gesture of defiance against their oppressors, and as such, a relief of sorts from impotent submission to the oppressors.

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