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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 22, 2014

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift to the Coalition in this week's Essential Research, which also finds the recent Senate turmoil has changed very few minds about the utility of minor parties holding the balance of power.

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This week’s Essential Research result ticks back a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now trail by 52-48, from primary votes of 39% for both the Coalition and Labor (respectively up one and down one), with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. Other findings:

• Perceptions of the Senate balance of power have not changed since last year, with 32% thinking it best when the government has a majority (up one), 25% favouring independents and minor parties holding the balance of power (up one), 8% preferring the opposition holding the balance of power (down two), 7% saying it doesn’t matter, and 28% saying they don’t know.

• Perceptions of the present situation are likewise unchanged on immediately after the election, with 36% thinking the micro-parties good for democracy (steady), 28% bad (up two) and 15% opting for makes no difference (down two).

• Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.

Other inquiries relate to respondents’ retirement and superannuation arrangements. Another polling nugget to emerge yesterday was a ReachTEL result commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): The Seven Network this evening brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of national voting intention, as it does one a month or so, conducted to gauge reaction to Tony Abbott’s handling of the MH17 disaster. The poll shows a slight tick to the Coalition, which now trails 52-48 from primary votes of 36% for the Liberals, apparently not including the Coalition (up one); 37% for Labor (down one); 10% for the Greens (steady); and 8% for Palmer United (up one). Abbott scores strong ratings for his handling of MH17, being rated very good or good by 51%, satisfactory by 26% and poor or very poor by 23%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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835 comments

835 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

  1. [But knowing you elected to stay behind in Amsterdam to have a naughty nooky break with your husband while your kids sallied forth back to Perth only to be shot out of the sky in some fucked up random bullshit agenda?]

    I may well mark Abbott in the very negative minority view, but I would mark that comment a lot lower.

  2. Libertarian Unionist:

    If you’re around, this from earlier in the week caught my eye:

    [Labor policy should be to smack leveraged investment within SMSFs right between the eyes. It’s akin to drawing on your super balance for a day at the races. ]

    It occurs to me that there’s probably an element of moral hazard in allowing leveraged SMSF investments – it’s rational to have a risky highly leveraged portfolio, since if it pays off you get to retire on the benefits, but if it all goes completely south you at least have the Age Pension to fall back on.

  3. I think abbott has done pretty much as anyone else in his position would do. I was pretty angry with the events and I probably would have said similar things to him.

    That being said, almost everyone in politics has said the same things.

    I don;t think anyone deserves ‘congratulations’ – they’ve simply done the same thing anyone would have done.

  4. “During the identification process (in the Netherlands), it will gradually become clear how many people we can identify,” Ms Naber told AAP.

    “We feel confident that we have at least 200 bodies. But we don’t know the exact amount because at this stage the (original) bags have not been opened.”

    Asked if it was possible there were indeed close to 300 bodies recovered, Ms Naber replied: “That’s possible.

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/dutch-play-down-missing-mh17-bodies-20140723-3cg5w.html

    Night

  5. Victoria and Helen – thank you.

    William @809: Oh dear. I suppose the BBC are under pressure like our ABC are under pressure of cuts. So some tasks such as checking crawlers before they’re sent across the bottom of the screen are no longer done.

  6. When the housing bubble bursts a lot of SMSFs will be in strife. Agree it’s a no brainer that SMSFs should not be permitted to leverage. Many do it for understandable reasons, for example, to give their kids a leg up into the housing market, but it is a bubble feeding itself that will end in tears eventually.

  7. On the HC AS Case. I think the government will be in for a rude shock if they are relying on them being outside the territory.

    As soon as the AS are on board an Australian government ship that is Australian Territory with the captain exercising Australian Maritime law.

    Just as we saw with the Japanese Whaling ships taking Sea Shepherd activists to Tokyo.

    So I very much doubt that outside our territory will work

  8. Nice try but no cigar Scott.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/delhi-offers-little-comfort-to-morrisons-boat-mission-20140723-zw2wr.html

    Is it me, or isn’t there something a bit distasteful about Angus Houston sitting with Morrison in Delhi one day trying to organize the forced repatriation of 150 asylum seekers and the next day parading around in Ukraine telling the Ukrainians what to do about MH17?

    Personally, whatever the merits of each case I would have preferred some separation between these roles. But perhaps I’m a bit old fashioned.

  9. [ I think you’re a bit too quick to rule out Her Majesty having questions to answer, Steve. ]

    And it was mentioned under the English Test team list after all.

  10. [ Age online imacca. ]

    Sad. But i guess not that surprising given the people in the area. There will be a lot of them pretty much hard cases who dont give a toss and who have guns. Although there are obviously decent people there too as shown by the locals who helped search for bodies.

  11. Castan Centre for Human Rights Law – The High Court’s Sri Lanka asylum seeker case: the legal issues

    http://castancentre.com/2014/07/09/2543/
    [The case raises a range of legal questions. These go to the legality of the Australian Government’s policy towards, and treatment of, asylum seekers. They also go to broader questions concerning the relationship between Australian domestic law and international law.

    When it comes to dealing with asylum seekers, the Australian Government has three principal sources of power.]

  12. Slothy my huge apology, a mistake on my part, it was the other military Angus, Angus Campbell in Delhi.

    Still distasteful that these senior military types are now routinely dragged into these non-military issues. It’s as if the pollies need the cloak of the military to give credence to their position….

  13. I heard on ABC radio this morning that Abbott had requested the Governor General to go somewhere overseas to put the Australian Government’s position on something or other.

    Where does he get off giving directions to the GG? Or even “requests” of this sort for that matter?

  14. Fulvio

    When I first heard of GG Cosgrove going to Netherlands this morning I treated it with some derision.

    However after just watching the reception of victims ceremony as the first caskets arrived from Ukraine, and seeing the formality and dignity of it, including our GG being there with many other dignitaries including the King and Queen of Netherlands, I have changed my mind.

    This ceremony was highly formal, each of the caskets was unloaded separately and given utmost respect and recognition. In normal times the event would appear to have required months of organisation.

    It would appear to me that GG Cosgrove was there by formal invitation to represent Australia. IMHO even as an ardent disrespecter of Abbott, it was most fitting that he was there.

    I have absolutely no doubt that families of Australian victims would have been much comforted by what they will/did see in this reception ceremony. This was one event that cannot be criticised as a politicisation of the MH17 tragedy by Abbott.

    In fact the “polish” which characterised the welcome back to Netherlands of the victims defines it as an event which Abbott and his mob played no role in organising. It was too appropriate, too warm, too empathic, too respectful and thus beyond any capacity of the Abbotteers.

  15. Psyclaw, on a head of state to head of state invitation level I too have no issue with Cosgrove attending, and he may well have given comfort to the bereaved.

    My objection was the fantasy or arrogance as expressed on the ABC that Abbott had any authority to direct him to do so.

  16. Abbott is reported to write his own speeches. After his latest ham-fisted insensitive effort, I do not doubt it. It reflects his complete inability to emphasise with the suffering of others. When he wants to make a point he makes it, and if people are hurt in the process, well, ‘shit happens’.

  17. I can but only compare Abbott’s sociopathic handling of this tragedy with how PMJG would have acted and spoken.
    Abbott tries to fake something he does not have and Julia Gillard had in spades, empathy.

  18. The GG going to the Netherlands was a good thing. Out of Abbott’s desire to grandstand, some accidental good sometimes happens.