tip off

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a post-MH17 improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, but no dividend on voting intention.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its lead of 54-46, and next to no change on the primary vote, with the Coalition steady on 36%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and others steady on 16%. However, Tony Abbott is up five on approval to 36% and down seven on disapproval to 53%, and has drawn level on preferred prime minister at 38-38 after Bill Shorten led 41-36 a fortnight ago. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are also improved, his approval up four to 38% and disapproval down two to 41%.

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  • 1
    J341983
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    …still dreadful for the Coalition. Good.

  • 2
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    So Abbott’s personal ratings have improved and that’s it? That’s the result of MH17 publicity?

    William was right.

  • 3
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    meh boost for LNP, as economy + budget still prevails.

  • 4
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Must be a blow to Hockey and Bishop.

  • 5
    victoria
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    Shorten’s approval ratings have also improved

  • 6
    Work To Rule
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    So, a tick up in PPM and approval rating. That’s all he’s managed with his full court press on ML17.

    He’ll be on the look out for something better.

  • 7
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Labor has a good chance of winning the next election if Abbott’s figures stay where they are or improve. It means the Libs won’t easily jettisoned him.

  • 8
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    victoria:

    Yes, just saw that tweet.

  • 9
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    He’ll be on the look out for something better.

    Yes, like invading Russia.

  • 10
    FarQU
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    “I wouldn’t say his views on profiling muslims at airports is based on meticulous research and argument. Fairly light-weight fluff all told”

    [Have you actually read what he has to say on the topic?

    Only a little in an essay, but if he was prepared to let that go then he’s not entitled to the claim of meticulous.

    To argue that racial-profiling is an effective tool for stopping terrorism at airports is simplistic nonsense. And to blithely skip over the ethics of it all is equally shallow. He may have expanded his views elsewhere. He would certainly want to have.

  • 11
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    That is very good news for Shorten.

  • 12
    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    dead cat bounce?

  • 13
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll in short. Slight uptick for Abbott’s approval, thats about it. Limited if any downside for Shorten. TPP barely moved. The real game is the Budget. MH17 now has nothing but downside for Abbott. One silly move could undo Abbott.

  • 14
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Failure to Stop The Boats should also be factored in.

  • 15
    Work To Rule
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    MH17 now has nothing but downside for Abbott.

    I tend to agree, but a compliant MSM will probably not question Abbott too much on the over-reach unless something goes pear shaped.

  • 16
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Nothing from Ghost. Nothing up at the Oz. But check out the header page of the Oz’s twitter account!
    https://twitter.com/australian/with_replies

    :lol:

  • 17
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    It’s the economy, stupid. Or in abbott’s case, the budget.

    By end of year MH17 will be history and people will still be talking about the Tories’ nasties.

  • 18
    Paul
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll, Morgan and ABC Poll of Polls all on 54% Labor and 46% LNP
    That’s good enough for me.
    It’s official 54 – 46 to Labor

  • 19
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    (From previous thread)

    Most of our PMs have been at least nominally members of a religion, like most Australians. Rudd and Abbott, who wear their religion on their sleeve, so to speak, are more the exception than the rule: http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=24159#.U9ZEymIaySM

  • 20
    Work To Rule
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Good to see the anemic pick up in the conservative polling. The ML17 response was straight out of the Howard playbook.

    But, it can’t be crafted in an existential threat like 9/11, Tampa or the Bali Bombings.

    And maybe, just maybe, the trust needed to get traction is no longer there.

  • 21
    ___cog___
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    William, did you notice Morgan out today too?

  • 22
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Steve777:

    Every single PM we’ve had bar Gillard has been nominally members of a religion. Even when you factor in those who sat on the fence as agnostics (and from memory Hawke was one of those), only Gillard comes up as the sole atheist PM the country has had.

  • 23
    matt31
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Hah! Just a slight improvement for Abbott’s personal ratings and PPM. This, after we have seen the most unbelievable attempt by the pro Liberal cheer squad to portray him as a great leader over the last week and a half. The Liberal cheer squad knew this was probably their last real shot at rehabilitating Abbott in the minds of voters and turning things around. Yet, all we seem to be seeing, is voters giving him a bit of a tick for appearing half Prime Ministerial, and saying, “ok, next”.

    There is likely to be no further political advantage for Abbott in MH17, so this is likely as good as it gets. With thought bubbles like 40 jobs a month, and the focus returning to the budget, I suspect it will not be long before Abbott’s dissatisfaction rating once again has a 6 in front of it. This Government, and Abbott’s leadership, is in perhaps even more serious trouble than I thought.

  • 24
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Reith speculating on J Bishop today as the next LNP leader. Barnaby on QnA saying Abbott is a strong leader. Hockey defending Abbott.

    It’s on.

  • 25
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    A good QandA tonight

    My favourite political bit was a question pit to Barnaby Joyce via video. A farmer Mr Clive Wallace from Maules creek. Intro about coal project and impacts. The question:-

    Mr Joyce when did you sell us out?

  • 26
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Abbott could be in trouble!

    Who will replace him as leader?

    Turnbull – not enough party room support.

    Hockey – destroyed himself with sheer stupidity.

    Morrison – disgraced himself with boats.

    Mesma – ????

    Two female PM knifings in a row :D

  • 27
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Another bad poll for the LNP. Its getting to be a trend. This before the latest 40 jobs applying attack on welfare

  • 28
    Work To Rule
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Reith speculating on J Bishop today as the next LNP leader. Barnaby on QnA saying Abbott is a strong leader. Hockey defending Abbott.

    It’s on.

    I could be wrong but I think the LNP is so drunk on the right wing cool-aid that they will keep walking the path they are on for some time.

  • 29
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore

    Yes it’s on!

  • 30
    J341983
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    6 weeks ago, Morrison and Mesma were the only legitimate options I saw. But now… Mesma is kind of it. Unless something remarkable has happened with Turnbull that we don’t know about.

    …and I know for a fact Government staffers were very nervy toward the end of last week.

  • 31
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a beautiful picture of the Horsehead Nebula, 1,500 light years away. The colours are enhanced to bring out the detail.

    Should astronomers discover the other end of the nebula, they’re going to name it after Tony Abbott.

  • 32
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    To argue that racial-profiling is an effective tool for stopping terrorism at airports is simplistic nonsense.

    Given that certain groups are more likely to be terrorists, drug traffickers, exotic bird smugglers etc, more attention is obviously paid to those who fit the profile than to others. It’s basic logic.

    Medicine uses profiling all the time. If someone is an obese 60 year old male smoker, you are going to look into their chest pain a lot more carefully than with a 25 year old lady.

  • 33
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, forgot the link: http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

  • 34
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    This is a seriously disgraceful poll for Abbott given MH17.

    Beginning of the end?

  • 35
    Paul
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    16
    check out the header page of the Oz’s twitter account!
    https://twitter.com/australian/with_replies
    Thx for the link..lol…lol.
    Undoubtedly the demented plutocrat will be nominating Abbott for KING of Australia in the very near future.

  • 36
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Racial profiling for terror is a crock. Terrorism happened in Northern Ireland. The difference was over religion and not race. Crystal clear example to use when someone tries to justify racial profiling.

  • 37
    bemused
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes@32


    To argue that racial-profiling is an effective tool for stopping terrorism at airports is simplistic nonsense.


    Given that certain groups are more likely to be terrorists, drug traffickers, exotic bird smugglers etc, more attention is obviously paid to those who fit the profile than to others. It’s basic logic.

    Medicine uses profiling all the time. If someone is an obese 60 year old male smoker, you are going to look into their chest pain a lot more carefully than with a 25 year old lady.

    Really? :evil:

  • 38
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Ghost now confirming Newspoll.

  • 39
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    As a long time watcher of bishop from WA I know what she is not: PM material.

    But I almost hope the Tories give her a go. It will be a treat to see the mental gymnastics as they justify a woman replacing a first term PM.

  • 40
    imacca
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Wow, it says something that the PM is “drawing level” with a new opposition leader only 10 months into Govt. Abbott is fwarked. :)

    A remarkable case of toxicbudgetitis caught from his mate JoHo??

  • 41
    J341983
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    The Australian’s spin: PM’s MH17 response rewarded…

    “TONY Abbott’s strong response to the murder of Australians aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 has delivered the equal-biggest rise in his personal ratings outside an election campaign.

    The 12-point leap in the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating is short of John Howard’s record gains after the September 11 and Bali bombing terror attacks, but has given Mr Abbott his best personal poll results since April.”

    Turd polishing at its best…

  • 42
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Re ‘job snobs’. Should someone be compelled to take a job in, say, an abattoir, if that job is the only one available?

    Eric Abetz is talking up the ‘job snob’ angle, but the problem is the jobs aren’t there. We can’t create an economic environment that provides a place for everyone. At the same time the Government plans to drastically reduce the affordability of education.

    Blaming the victims is the easy way out.

  • 43
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    guytaur

    Racial profiling for terror is a crock.

    No it’s not. It’s a simple mathematical law known as Bayes’ Theorem. It’s rational thinking as opposed to emotion.

    It’s not like there is even an argument against it; you can pick out sub-populations/profiles who are more likely to be in the target group, you concentrate your resources on them.

  • 44
    J341983
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    …and at the same time as Shorten’s net satisfaction is up 6.

  • 45
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    dio

    I am not saying profiling is a crock. Just racial profiling.

  • 46
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg

    I think you’re right but have a look at the opposition (within the Liberal Party) they’ve got nothing.

    Mesma wins by default.

  • 47
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    The Oz posts something about Newspoll, but overlooks that Shorten has also seen a rise in his personal ratings.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbotts-strong-mh17-response-reflected-in-polls/story-fn59niix-1227004992839#

  • 48
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    J341

    My out on a limb prediction of one term the day after the budget is looking less out on a limb now. Still a long way to go.

  • 49
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Terrorism happened in Northern Ireland. The difference was over religion and not race. Crystal clear example to use when someone tries to justify racial profiling.

    Obviously there you would look more closely at someone who was Catholic or Protestant depending on your area, male, between 18 and 35 and unemployed. They would fit your profile as being much more likely to be a terrorist than a 65 year old grandmother.

  • 50
    imacca
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    It will be a treat to see the mental gymnastics as they justify a woman replacing a first term PM.

    Particularly when that woman is such a serial stuff up in every portfolio she has held. :)

    But if Abbott is dumped it will be him leaving for health reasons not a knifing.

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