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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 31, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Post-MH17 polls have boosted Tony Abbott's personal ratings and slightly improved the Coalition's position on voting intention, although Labor remains comfortably ahead.

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This week’s better-late-than-never BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading finds the MH17 effect boosting the Coalition by 1.1% on two-party preferred, and putting it two points clear of Labor on the primary vote. On the seat projection, the Coalition this week gains two in Queensland and one in every other mainland state, a net gain of six that nonetheless leaves Labor with an overall majority of 79 seats out of 150. The bigger effect is on the personal ratings, for which Newspoll contributes to a lift of nearly six points on the reading for Tony Abbott’s net approval, albeit from a dismally low base. Newspoll also causes the previously downward trend for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to level off this week, although his lead as preferred prime minister continues to narrow.

Also on the better-late-than-never front, this week’s Essential Research, which I neglected to cover on Tuesday, had the Coalition gaining a point for the second week in a row to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two on a week ago), 38% for Labor (down one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Other questions found a very healthy 67% approving of Tony Abbott’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines disaster with only 13% disapproving; Malaysia Airlines, the Malaysian government and the United Nations also credited with handling the matter well, but the Russian government not so much; 49% believing Vladimir Putin should not be allowed to attend the G20 versus 29% for should be allowed; and 62% supporting trade sanctions against Russia, 46% supporting the withdrawal of diplomatic relations and 28% supporting support for the Ukrainian government against the rebels, with only 8% preferring that no action be taken.

The poll also finds 59% of respondents not expecting their electricity bill to decrease as a result of the carbon tax repeal, which includes 16% who actually expect it to go up, versus only 33% who expect it to fall. A question on actions on climate change policy has only 5% nominating the government’s direct action policy of the available options and only 19% going for an emissions trading scheme, with 43% insteading opting for “incentives for renewable energy”. Another question finds 51% favouring an increase in the childcare rebate over the government’s paid parental leave scheme, which is preferred by only 25%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1164 comments

1,164 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

  1. bemused

    Well that didn’t work as expected. 🙁

  2. Patrick Bateman

    Ok, what the hell is up with this:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/31/attorney-general-to-decide-who-is-charged-under-national-security-plans

    Political prosecutions of Australian citizens on ‘national security’ grounds in the discretion of the A-G of the day.

    If you’ve ever wondered how democratic countries end up as dictatorships, this is how.

    How can anyone defend this? It’s absolutely ****ing outrageous.

    The fact that these people would even SUGGEST such a thing is very concerning. Also very concerning is that the director of ASIO is there barracking for these changes. A cosy little nexus of extreme right ideologues and the head of the intelligence service.

    This is seriously scary stuff.

    And will those pathetic shills in the Labor Party do anything about this? Or will they roll over like they do on everything else with the words “national security” (or “asylum seeker”… or “Australian Christian Lobby”) attached to it?

  3. zoidlord

    @Patrick/3

    Then watch Coalition Party’s first victims will be those who oppose them.

    The fact they are exercising that right, now, is scary enough.

  4. lizzie

    [‏@beneltham 3m
    Back-seat drivers: Aus Motoring Enthusiasts Party no longer happy with Senator Ricky Muir http://www.afr.com/p/national/motoring_party_tries_to_expel_ricky_y9jiLFre1NoRxT8ahfb9vM … ]

  5. bemused

    Patrick Bateman@3



    And will those pathetic shills in the Labor Party do anything about this? Or will they roll over like they do on everything else with the words “national security” (or “asylum seeker”… or “Australian Christian Lobby”) attached to it?

    Spoken like a typical ratbag Green.

  6. victoria

    How unsurprisement

    Remember an episode of The Hollowmen where they come up with a TV ad “Keep Talking About Terrorism”? @thewest_com_au pic.twitter.com/wuZr69Jcf7
    10:27 PM – 30 Jul 2014

  7. guytaur

    @oliverlaughland: Lake says the detention environment is “designed to construct an environment where people are used as examples”. #HRinquiry

  8. Patrick Bateman

    [Spoken like a typical ratbag Green.]
    I am not a Green. Just a person who is appalled at this type of thing happening in my country and equally appalled at the quality of the ‘opposition’ on these important issues.

    Is that ok? Or would you prefer to just label me and then disregard the substance of what I say?

    What do you think about the proposed laws?

  9. lizzie

    No comment,

    [Washington: The US has confirmed it has restocked Israel’s supplies of ammunition, hours after issuing a strong condemnation of an attack on a United Nations school in Gaza.

    The Israeli military requested additional ammunition to restock its dwindling supplies on July 20, the Pentagon said. The US Defence Department approved the sale just three days later.

    “The United States is committed to the security of Israel and it is vital to US national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defence capability,” Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby said in a statement on Wednesday. “This defence sale is consistent with those objectives.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-restocks-israel-with-ammunition-as-it-condemns-attack-on-united-nations-school-20140731-zyv3w.html#ixzz391F3OcdY

  10. guytaur

    PB

    Snowden’s lawyer put it well describing these laws as chilling

  11. bemused

    Patrick Bateman@10


    Spoken like a typical ratbag Green.


    I am not a Green. Just a person who is appalled at this type of thing happening in my country and equally appalled at the quality of the ‘opposition’ on these important issues.

    Is that ok? Or would you prefer to just label me and then disregard the substance of what I say?

    What do you think about the proposed laws?

    The Labor Party has a proud history of opposing such legislation from its earliest days.

  12. poroti

    victoria

    The Coalition has realised how farqued they are. To get the nod from the public they think anything less than the public thinking the choice is between crazed jihadis or the Coalition will fail 😆

  13. bemused

    poroti@15

    victoria

    The Coalition has realised how farqued they are. To get the nod from the public they think anything less than the public thinking the choice is between crazed jihadis or the Coalition will fail

    The problem they face is that an increasing number of voters think the crazed jihadis are in the Cabinet.

  14. Dee

    From Lizzie’s link!

    Words cannot express my disgust!

    [“They didn’t ask for it from there but we gave it to them so we could rotate our stocks,” the official said.
    Additional Israeli requests for US-manufactured ammunition were also being processed, the official said.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-restocks-israel-with-ammunition-as-it-condemns-attack-on-united-nations-school-20140731-zyv3w.html#ixzz391HGodyd

  15. guytaur

    A day or two ago a bludger posted about the weapons manufacturers needing to have some sales

  16. Dee

    A week old but…..

    [There’s little doubt the people giving the orders and firing rockets into Gaza know they will kill children. Hundreds have died already.
    Only the soulless or the sick could argue these children will be any less mourned than the children killed on board that Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777, yet our ability to make dead Gazan children “other”, to minimise the significance of their deaths is, at its root, the same response that allows people to kill them.
    It is the power of abstraction.
    The outcry over Gaza is but a fraction of what has been generated by MH17. Logic suggests we – as Australians value the dead of Gaza as fractions as well.
    20, 50, 100 Arab dead kids = one dead Aussie child.
    Whether you agree with me or not, I think we can all understand the despair and rage that must fill a parent’s heart when their child is murdered, mutilated, crushed like an insect.
    If Israel thinks the massacre of children will somehow subdue or pacify the people of Palestine, they’re operating under a grave misunderstanding of human nature.
    Every child that dies, every beloved spouse or relative dismembered by grim technology, marks the birth of another blood-enemy who dreams only of killing Israelis.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/anatomy-of-revenge-kill-my-children-20140730-zx0w2.html#ixzz391IAx3cM

  17. lizzie

    Dee

    Far too much of the “news” recently leaves me speechless. It hardly seems worth commenting because I just want to repeat “what the hell are they up to?” a thousand times.

  18. Dee

    Guytaur

    That was Kezza and she was spot on!

  19. guytaur

    @strom_m: Internet’s regulatory body has ruled that country level domains are “not property” that can be seized http://t.co/89O3SCVDLG via @smh

  20. guytaur

    @nicchristensen: Good piece by @JournLaw on #tapegate. Andrews’ media accusers have some explaining of their own to do http://t.co/82bwY59hIS

  21. zoomster

    From William’s post above (someone has to read the thing occasionally…)

    [The bigger effect is on the personal ratings, for which Newspoll contributes to a lift of nearly six points on the reading for Tony Abbott’s net approval, albeit from a dismally low base.]

    So ‘Operation Rehabilitate Tony’ did have some effect – but the ‘bounce’ for the Coalition was negligible.

    That’s quite significant. It means that the Coalition aren’t (necessarily) behind in the polls because people have decided Abbott sucks. The Coalition is behind in the polls because people think the Coalition sucks (big time).

    …which suggests that they can change leaders all they want to, but unless there’s a significant shift in policy (and few of the current contenders are going to be able to lead such a shift and maintain any credibility at all) it will make bugger all difference.

  22. guytaur

    #AbbottTranslate: Helping you interpret the difference between what Tony Abbott thinks and what comes out of his mouth.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/repsfeed/abbott-translate-jiir

  23. Kevin Bonham

    My weekly polling wrap:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/poll-roundup-small-bounce-deeper-issues.html

    After a few weeks of being more or less identical my aggregate has a quite different result to BT this week at 52.8. Not sure why yet.

  24. guytaur

    24 reporting Abbott being “taken apart” at Tas Economic meeting on now

  25. bemused

    Dee@19

    A week old but…..

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/anatomy-of-revenge-kill-my-children-20140730-zx0w2.html#ixzz391IAx3cM

    I once didn’t bother reading Sam de Brito thinking he wrote pretty light weight stuff, but I have read a number of his articles recently and they have been very good indeed.

    This is one of them.

  26. poroti

    Legal madness all round.

    [Dead student’s family ordered to pay Scots College $8 million in legal fees

    On Thursday, Justice Davies said that, with interest, the Chainas were entitled to $529,131.

    However, he said they should pay $8.3 million towards Scots’ legal bills, leaving them $7,770,869 out of pocket.

    The $8.3 million is approximately 70 per cent of Scots’ total incurred costs since June 2003 when both Mr and Mrs Chaina were offered settlements of $350,000 each.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/dead-students-family-ordered-to-pay-scots-college-8-million-in-legal-fees-20140731-zyuze.html#ixzz391JxlnLW

  27. Player One

    [ Far too much of the “news” recently leaves me speechless. It hardly seems worth commenting because I just want to repeat “what the hell are they up to?” a thousand times. ]

    The answer is easy – “Making themselves and their mates rich, at the expense of all other Australians”.

    Just repeat a thousand times.

  28. guytaur

    “@AusHumanRights: #HRInquiry – @GillianTriggs says invited the #Immigration Minister to appear today, he said will appear at another session.”

  29. lizzie

    [Andrews’ media accusers have some explaining of their own to do http://mumbrella.com.au/andrews-media-accusers-explaining-242021 … ]

  30. badcat

    NAB chief Cameron Clyne attacks Tony Abbott’s parental leave scheme

    The retiring chief executive of National Australia Bank, Cameron Clyne, has criticised the government’s paid parental leave scheme as too costly, and said the money would be better spent on child care.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/nab_chief_cameron_clyne_attacks_sydHEQ6ElG12IQUiaOzLiO

  31. Dee

    Bemused

    [I once didn’t bother reading Sam de Brito]

    I found it easy to connect with because he approached the issues from a human angle.

  32. lizzie

    guytaur

    Sorry I duplicated your link. The power has gone on and off a few times here and I keep having to catch up. And this is BEFORE the front hits us 🙁

  33. poroti

    lizzie

    [Far too much of the “news” recently leaves me speechless]
    An antidote which may give you a smile and get your feet tapping. Staff and residents at a retirement village got together to do their version of the video accompanying a recent hit called “Happy”. The residents “wanted to show their children and grandchildren just what they’re made of!”.

    [80-odd years of happy]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebD_drWYVaI

  34. guytaur

    lizzie

    Yes I have seen the radar image.

    Twitter jokes abounding as today is Sharknado release day.

  35. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    poroti: Another legal truism: if a case goes to hearing then at least one side has made a very serious mistake!

  36. rossmcg

    Poroti

    Very sad the people who sued scots college their son. Even sadder is that it seems they tried to cash in.

    And the winner is: lawyers (surprise surprise)

  37. bemused

    poroti@29

    Legal madness all round.


    Dead student’s family ordered to pay Scots College $8 million in legal fees

    On Thursday, Justice Davies said that, with interest, the Chainas were entitled to $529,131.

    However, he said they should pay $8.3 million towards Scots’ legal bills, leaving them $7,770,869 out of pocket.

    The $8.3 million is approximately 70 per cent of Scots’ total incurred costs since June 2003 when both Mr and Mrs Chaina were offered settlements of $350,000 each.


    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/dead-students-family-ordered-to-pay-scots-college-8-million-in-legal-fees-20140731-zyuze.html#ixzz391JxlnLW

    That is because they were awarded less than the school had offered in settlement.

    One of our lawyer friends could explain it better, but I also note that at another stage they rejected a settlement offer of $8.16M.

    What on earth were they seeking and expecting?

  38. rossmcg

    Bemused

    They wanted $300 million. But the judge said the father wanted vengeance.,

  39. rossmcg

    Outgoing NAB boss passed judgment on Tory PPL plan

    Asked if the government can afford to honour its paid parental leave promise, Mr Clyne said “Well, no.”
    He said NAB would have to pay an extra $100 million in tax under the plan, but this was not the reason he was opposed to the policy.
    “The reason that I don’t like it is not that I’d have to pay $100 million, it won’t actually increase participation in the workforce,” he said.
    “The overwhelming feedback I get from our [staff] and we’ve got a big workforce here in Australia, 28,000, is the biggest barrier to women re-entering the workforce is child care,” he said on 3AW radio in Melbourne this morning.
    “So if I could spend that $100 million on child care, as opposed to a parental leave scheme, that would be far more productive. That’s what the Productivity Commission says, and quite frankly that’s what just about everyone’s saying, but you know I think it’s here to stay.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/spend-100m-on-child-care-not-paid-parental-leave-says-outgoing-bank-chief-20140731-zyvhd.html#ixzz391OxB6HR

  40. shellbell

    Chaina case was one where the insurer behind the school did everything to settle and teams of lawyers tried to advise the family to settle and were sacked for doing so.

    Whether the family were so afflicted by the death of their son that they could not see sense and some sort of administrator (or tutor) should have been appointed to take over their interests is a question which presumably will now be debated. There is has never been a like situation as far as I am aware.

  41. shellbell

    [And the winner is: lawyers (surprise surprise)]

    There was likely to have been a cavalcade of lawyers who lost money trying to help the Chainas.

  42. bemused

    rossmcg@41

    Bemused

    They wanted $300 million. But the judge said the father wanted vengeance.,

    Yes, I read that. My question was rhetorical.

    They must be mad.

  43. bemused

    shellbell@44


    And the winner is: lawyers (surprise surprise)


    There was likely to have been a cavalcade of lawyers who lost money trying to help the Chainas.

    Really?

  44. Libertarian Unionist

    [There was likely to have been a cavalcade of lawyers who lost money trying to help the Chainas.

    Really?]

    Opportunity costs.

  45. Dee

    Interesting that a judge gets to decide when the grief of a lost child ‘had’ dissipated.

    The Judge also called Mr.Chainia a liar.

  46. Patrick Bateman

    [The Labor Party has a proud history of opposing such legislation from its earliest days.]
    Are you serious? Rather than repealing Howard’s insidious ASIO laws, Labor actively worked to strengthen them, including laws which are still on the books which allow for people to be ‘disappeared’ without any criminal charge against them and make it an offence for them to tell anyone where they’ve been.

    They also did absolutely nothing to investigate whether the US was spying on Australian citizens when they would have known this was likely, quite possibly via Pine Gap. It used to be regarded as an act of treason to help a foreign power spy on Australians.

    The naivety of some people is quite bewildering.

  47. ruawake

    I see Tony Abbott has lost control of the media cycle and cans of worms are popping everywhere after 2 weeks of control via MH17.