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Federal Politics 2013-

Jul 31, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Post-MH17 polls have boosted Tony Abbott's personal ratings and slightly improved the Coalition's position on voting intention, although Labor remains comfortably ahead.

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This week’s better-late-than-never BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading finds the MH17 effect boosting the Coalition by 1.1% on two-party preferred, and putting it two points clear of Labor on the primary vote. On the seat projection, the Coalition this week gains two in Queensland and one in every other mainland state, a net gain of six that nonetheless leaves Labor with an overall majority of 79 seats out of 150. The bigger effect is on the personal ratings, for which Newspoll contributes to a lift of nearly six points on the reading for Tony Abbott’s net approval, albeit from a dismally low base. Newspoll also causes the previously downward trend for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to level off this week, although his lead as preferred prime minister continues to narrow.

Also on the better-late-than-never front, this week’s Essential Research, which I neglected to cover on Tuesday, had the Coalition gaining a point for the second week in a row to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two on a week ago), 38% for Labor (down one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Other questions found a very healthy 67% approving of Tony Abbott’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines disaster with only 13% disapproving; Malaysia Airlines, the Malaysian government and the United Nations also credited with handling the matter well, but the Russian government not so much; 49% believing Vladimir Putin should not be allowed to attend the G20 versus 29% for should be allowed; and 62% supporting trade sanctions against Russia, 46% supporting the withdrawal of diplomatic relations and 28% supporting support for the Ukrainian government against the rebels, with only 8% preferring that no action be taken.

The poll also finds 59% of respondents not expecting their electricity bill to decrease as a result of the carbon tax repeal, which includes 16% who actually expect it to go up, versus only 33% who expect it to fall. A question on actions on climate change policy has only 5% nominating the government’s direct action policy of the available options and only 19% going for an emissions trading scheme, with 43% insteading opting for “incentives for renewable energy”. Another question finds 51% favouring an increase in the childcare rebate over the government’s paid parental leave scheme, which is preferred by only 25%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1164 comments

1,164 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

  1. [ Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Btw Sassoon survived ]

    Good. I thought he had been killed in the war.

  2. [ briefly
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    If one thing seems to lie before us, it is the prospect of re-living the war for the next four years. ]

    Yep. A bleak prospect.

    Yet – Some of it all is valid reminder of what can happen and Putin is a worry as is reaction to him.

  3. I worked in a Repat hospital between 1976 and 1995.

    In the 70s many of the Vietnam vets treated there certainly were suffering and had a sense of betrayal but I was never sure if these were a fair example of the cohort or a fairly vocal subset. In contrast some of the WW1 and more of the WW2 veterans in hospital were angry and obviously damaged but most were well adjusted men enjoying old age

    The theory in the hospital was that the further from the war the greater and more representative the sample that used Repat services and the proportion with major psychological damage was less.
    The one Boer War Veteran I treated was an absolutely charming gentleman

  4. [Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, August 2, 2014 at 11:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza. Brookes lines on the sadness and futility of war will endure long after you and I are gone.]

    Brookes egotistical lines will also endure long after the deaths of 100 AIDS specialists lost on MH17 (oops, make that 6) and the deaths of the doctors fighting ebola; and those fighting hunger, and poverty, and inequality, as long as there are men who think his words “sad” and that they talk about the “futility of war”.

    Let’s just pack up and leave. Let’s not say our bit. We can’t alter a thing. Especially when the most beautiful man in the world spoke 100 years ago.

    See ya.

  5. Wilfred Owen who met Sassoon in the hospital for the neurasthenic and became anti-war returned to the trenches and was killed in the last week of the war.

  6. [Oakeshott Country
    Posted Sunday, August 3, 2014 at 12:10 am | PERMALINK
    Wilfred Owen who met Sassoon in the hospital for the neurasthenic and became anti-war returned to the trenches and was killed in the last week of the war.]

    Silly old Anti-War Willy, eh. What a duffer! What a waste.

    Yeah, OC, you may have treated the poor old buggers in hospital, but you didn’t get to see how they treated their families.

    My FIL tried to drink himself to death. To forget the horror of war in PNG during WWII. But his body kept going.

    He bashed his wife and kids. They’re still suffering from his terror. His nightmare. He was only 19 when WWII started. He died aged 91.

    He lived that shit for 70+ years.

    And you wonder whether it’s a vocal subset, or not. And why the old bastards are only happy when they gather at the RSL, because even the doctors don’t understand; only their poor fellow soldiers do.

    My sister’s bloke is a Viet Vet. He gets explosively angry, for no reason, can’t explain it, is moody, irritable, has flashbacks, skin problems, is on medication for the rest of his life for various ailments. He’s now 65. And he’s got years ahead of him with the same shit.

    This is what war spews back at us.

    I find the gratuitous Israeli attack on Gaza appalling. Equally, I find Hamas’ call to women to sacrifice their men and their children equally appalling.

    But, hey, don’t let us stop stupid men. Why don’t you stand up and bloody stop it yourselves, instead of encouraging it.

  7. Legislation for Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s prized $5.5 billion paid parental leave scheme has been quietly shelved and is unlikely to be put to Parliament this year, sources have revealed.
    The move is aimed at quelling backbench dissent on the issue and is also a recognition it may be voted down by rebel government senators if put to the test.
    Treasurer Joe Hockey said in June that PPL legislation would be introduced ‘‘soon’’ and described as ‘‘absurd’’ suggestions the policy had been stalled due to internal unrest.

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
    But a government source said the scheme had been placed in the “too-hard basket” because the Coalition was fighting on too many fronts and struggling to get its basic budget measures passed by the Senate.
    Several other sources said a message had been discreetly sent to Mr Abbott that his pet policy could face an embarrassing defeat in the Senate.

    Legislation for Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s prized $5.5 billion paid parental leave scheme has been quietly shelved and is unlikely to be put to Parliament this year, sources have revealed.
    The move is aimed at quelling backbench dissent on the issue and is also a recognition it may be voted down by rebel government senators if put to the test.
    Treasurer Joe Hockey said in June that PPL legislation would be introduced ‘‘soon’’ and described as ‘‘absurd’’ suggestions the policy had been stalled due to internal unrest.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbotts-paid-parental-leave-scheme-deferred-with-no-due-date-in-sight-20140802-zzsbl.html#ixzz39FORqsti

  8. The cuts Abbott/Hockey/Corman didn’t mention;

    From Penny Wong;
    Senator Cormann’s response shows 112 programs across ten portfolios will be hit by an indexation freeze for up to four years (attached).

    The hidden cuts include:
    •$30.3 million from health programs including the National Immunisation Strategy, the National Depression Initiative, and mental health services like counselling, support for children and better access to psychiatrists and GPs;
    •$15.9 million from education and training, including cuts to programs to improve the quality of teaching in schools, civics and citizenship education and the Industry Workforce Training program;
    •$28.9 million in cuts to aged care programs to improve the quality and standards of care for elderly people living in nursing homes;
    •$26.4 million in cuts from the Family Relationship Services program which offers support and education to separated parents including counselling and dispute resolution.

    In addition, the cuts will hit programs giving people with disabilities better access to university education, supporting indigenous education and aged care, and promoting regional development.

    These latest cuts will only exacerbate the negative impact of this cruel Budget on Australians.

  9. Kevin Andrews’ attack on de facto couples is utterly disgusting.

    Is he breaching discrimination legislation?

    Why does his party preach freedom for corporations, yet feel entitled to micromanage how private individuals choose to live their lives?

  10. PARENTS of kids battling cancer are furious the state’s new children’s hospital won’t have a special room for them to stay overnight, nor will it prepare meals just for them.

    They say the room, which is currently available at Princess Margaret Hospital, offers much-needed respite.

    And people keep voting Liberal