tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.