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Federal Politics 2013-

Aug 11, 2014

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a shift in the Coalition's favour, including a primary vote improvement that exceeds the error margin.

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Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).

Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.

The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1139 comments

1,139 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

  1. Sir sustainable future

    re: hockey observations re: the poor and fuel

    at my kids school pick up in a country town, many of the wealthier people live closer and drive fuel efficient newer cars (or walk or ride because they live closer) and the less well off drive from further away (often smaller towns where the schools have been closed) in older gas guzzlers that they can’t afford to replace.

    I love the way the libs keep shooting themselves in their feet while they’ve got them in their mouths, but Hockey’s gone for the bazooka on this one. Palmer may have been about to compromise with Hockey, but no more – it’d a be a meg lees GST moment if he gives any concession to the most hated treasurer ever. Hockey looks as though he’s going to cry or hit someone – mumma’s boy isn’t getting everything he wants and he’s sulky and cross.

  2. fredex

    Sir sustainable future at #1098

    [UN-effing-believable]

    I second your disbelief.
    Mind boggling.

  3. Dee

    Why is anyone surprised by Hockey’s statements?

    The only difference between the situation now and the last few years is ‘scrutiny’.

    Rabbott, Hockey, Pain and numerous others have completely shocked us with their behaviour and ludicrous comments.

    For whatever the reasons, the media have decided to give Hockey a slight taste of scrutiny and if his reaction is anything to go by it wouldn’t take much more pushing for Hockey to explode.

  4. shellbell

    I think sometimes people get arrested for being at the scene and get charged with the offence based on what occurred at the scene as leverage for that person to be a crown witness against the real crim.

  5. CTar1

    vic

    [his presser earlier re Harriet Wran. ]

    I guess the Press can ask the question but what is Shorten meant to say other than that he knows ‘jack’ about it or sh$t happens in life.

  6. dave

    [ In the 60s, several building inspectors went to jail because they turned a blind eye to developers adding storeys on apartment buildings. To combat such things, the Wran government introduced very good environmental planning legislation in about 1978. ]

    Nowadays they seem to get development approval and then work on getting as many changes approved to get what they always wanted.

    Wasn’t there an instance recently in the eastern suburbs where substantial construction, many floors was done, where no approval had been given, involving a major builder.

    Was in the media etc.

  7. victoria

    [Mayor McCloy is now equivocating on whether he paid for Councillor Alan Robinson’s campaign expenses. #icac]

  8. CTar1

    shellbell

    [s leverage for that person to be a crown witness against the real crim.}

    What a horrible thing to say about the coppers. They wouldn’t do that, would they.

    😀

  9. victoria

    [“I put my hand in my wallet and gave him $1500 for his campaign,” says Mayor McCloy re payment to Liberal MP 4 Swansea Garry Edwards #icac]

  10. Just Me

    [the fact that this clown is one of the senior advisers should be of concern – but then again Pell was/is abbott’s other trusted adviser, so a grasp on reality or ethics isn’t a prerequisite.]

    Any sense of reality or ethics is a career killer for an aspiring Liberal these days.

  11. Sir sustainable future

    re: Hockey

    sections of the media seem to be defending his statement as factual.

    imagine had gillard said that carbon pricing didn’t effect the poor as much as they used less electricity? I could hear chris mitchells head explode.

    and higher rents and power prices don’t effect the homeless

  12. Dee

    Kevin

    Wasn’t there also a lot of fuss about a hairdryer too?

    If the media did its job and scrutinized the Liberals with equal ferociousness dealt the ALP you’d be scraping this government off the mat with a shovel.

  13. Tom the first and best

    1113

    Higher rents are a cause of homelessness.

  14. zoidlord

    @Victoria/1111

    Must be nice having $1500 dollars in cash handy.

  15. Bushfire Bill

    Damn those darkies!

    Tough titties for Generalissimo Abbott… there’s no-one on the mountain left to rescue.

    ‘Far fewer’ refugees stranded on Mount Sinjar in Iraq: US says
    US military advisers say there are ‘‘far fewer’’ refugees stranded on a mountain in northern Iraq than previously thought, meaning the prospects of an immediate international rescue mission have receded.

    After a small team of fewer than 20 US troops landed on Mount Sinjar to assess the refugee crisis, the Pentagon issued a statement saying that ‘‘an evacuation mission is far less likely’’ than previously thought.

    US Defence Department officials said that air strikes and Kurdish fighters had broken the mountain siege, allowing thousands of trapped Yazidis to escape, The New York Times reported.

    The change of tack comes just a day after multiple US news reports cited military and administration officials as saying that a rescue mission involving ground troops was among the options being considered by President Barack Obama.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/far-fewer-refugees-stranded-on-mount-sinjar-in-iraq-us-says-20140814-3do7b.html#ixzz3AKtLxvLI

    Perhaps Tony could talk the Yanks into marching the fuzzie-wuzzies back up the hill so they can be rescued all over again?

  16. mikehilliard

    @1098

    [UN-effing-believable]

    Agree, and so are some of the comments on that article.

  17. zoidlord

    @MH/1118

    More likely paid trolls on those article comments.

  18. shellbell

    CTar1

    I am looking at the case of a young woman arrested during a very large scale drug seizure.

    Her case was she was doing office work while her recently acquired boyfriend, completely unknown to her, was dealing with drugs.

    At a joint trial with a perpetrator, a case was hardly run against her and she was acquitted…and released after 2 years plus in jail pending trial.

  19. mikehilliard

    Only those who have been close to a person addicted to ice can fully appreciate what it does to them. I have nothing but pity.

  20. mikehilliard

    zoidlord@1119

    Are they on award rates?

  21. Bushfire Bill

    [Only those who have been close to a person addicted to ice can fully appreciate what it does to them. I have nothing but pity.]

    Yep.

  22. zoidlord

    @MH/1122

    Nah, Gina’s $2 dollar a day rate.

    Another one bites the dust?

    Kate McClymont @Kate_McClymont · 8m

    Move over! Garry Edwards, Lib member for Swansea, has just joined the cross benches.

  23. deblonay

    Kennett makes significant statement on 3AW Melb today
    ____________________________
    Kennett a regular on 3AW Thursday(and he loves it) today made a stong call for Australia to take up a neutral foreign policy
    He said all our military excursions into the islamic world…Iraq/Afghanistan have been disasterous, and waste of young lives and much money

    He surprised Mitchell who is still an old-fashioned militarist of a kind which sees all problems solved by in tervention
    Not Kennett…He seems to have moved to the same sort of view that is held by Malcolm Fraser(not that THEY would be buddies!)
    The callers that followed were without exception in his support whioch shows in a way how out of touch Abbott is with his vague talk of sending the military to Iraq….but it ashows the total rejection of policies of military in tervention Kennett also excepts the view that the Taliban will flood back into power after the US leaves Afg’stan..

    The ALP would do well to take up this neutralist positiion…instead of taging along behind the Usual US policies
    Fraser puts this view in his new book and Kennet obviously holds the same viewpoint

    the times are a-changing ,when we have senior Libs speaking like this

  24. BK

    No Austalian MH17 bodies to bring triumphantly home. A severely depleted supply of Iraqui Christians to bravely rescue.
    Abbott’s supply of unicorns is severely compromised.

  25. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    SHELLBELL – It is ridiculous that the High Court effectively said that corporations have political rights (they don’t) and therefore should be allowed to make political donations. What a perversion of the political system.

  26. CTar1

    shellbell

    [and released after 2 years plus in jail pending trial.]

    Somebody really deserves a proper ‘spanking’ on that one – suggest at least 2yrs ‘in’.

    ‘Outrageous’ comes to mind.

    Go at it!

  27. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Possum Comitatus
    Evan Keith Beaver ‏@evcricket 7m

    Inspired RT @matttburke: Updated #icac map on the news that Swansea MP has stood aside. #nswpol

    Clarke and Dawe – The Exceptions that Prove the Rules:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md7_rhlVgoE

  28. CTar1

    zoid

    [Move over! Garry Edwards, Lib member for Swansea, has just joined the cross benches.]

    It seems more like a bowling alley than a Commission of inquiry.

  29. CTar1

    deb

    [ made a stong call for Australia to take up a neutral foreign policy]

    Kennett! Bloody Hell.

    If the Libs did this they’d have hunt down John Burton to do it.

  30. deblonay

    A Euro site looks at the way the US having used Maliki in Iraq… decides that now that he is being uncoperative they have lined up a replacement ,…given Maliki’s disasterous sectarian polices which have reduced Baghdad to crisis again

    The article charts a similar course in other US colonies where the puppet ruler has gone off the rails ,and Washington suddenly decided he is a very bad man ,and not the clever leader that they said he was earlier in the operation

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/

  31. jules

    As far as a Federal ICAC goes there is a petition at Change.org calling for the establishment of something along those lines. (There may be a couple of similar petitions at Change.org set up by different people, sign ’em all I reckon.)

    I’ve got a feeling its been posted here before but if it hasn’t or you haven’t seen and signed it here is the link.

    http://www.change.org/en-AU/petitions/tony-abbott-and-bill-shorten-immediately-establish-a-federal-anti-corruption-watchdog

  32. Bushfire Bill

    Ctar1,

    [It seems more like a bowling alley than a Commission of inquiry.]

    :LOL:

  33. imacca

    So, with those pesky Ruski’s putting our Mesma in her place, what are the odds of big bad Vlad finding that he has more important things to do than come to Australia when the G20 rolls around??

    Or will he come just to make Abbott and Co, really squirm?? 🙂

  34. victoria

    1121
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 2:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Only those who have been close to a person addicted to ice can fully appreciate what it does to them. I have nothing but pity.

    Agreed. It breaks my heart

  35. sceptic

    It seems soooo long ago, April 2014, didn’t Bruce Baird seek & receive assurance form LNP party room…that there were NO MORE sticky / corrupt fingers amongst them.
    Given the % of North Coast LNP pollies that are corrupt Bruce must be praying that ICAC don’t open another lead out of Newcastle

    Surly he should resign his & all minsters commissions & call in the administrators till the March election, given it can’t be held early… ether that or call a by- election for all NSW seats now.

  36. Fran Barlow

    BBP

    [It was only after the scandal that it became a Belgian colony – about 1908 the same time as Leopold’s death. As events were to show in 1960, the Belgians didn’t do colonialism well.]

    Hardly anybody does do colonialism well. No colonising state goes in with good intentions, and those from the colonising state who have good intentions rarely grasp that their good intentions are misconceived. Anyone who does get what’s wrong with their good intentions and develops more culturally apt and practicable ideas finds that the colonising state has no or little interest in supporting them.