A Galaxy statewide poll from Queensland has the Liberal National Party retaining little of its 2012 election majority, while a local poll for the Townsville region suggests three seats that went from Labor to LNP in 2012 could be set to switch back again.
Steven Murray on Twitter relates that a Galaxy poll to be published in tomorrow’s Courier-Mail has Queensland’s Liberal National Party state government holding on to a 52-48 lead over Labor, down from 55-45 at the last such poll in May. The primary votes are 39% for the LNP, 36% for Labor, 12% for the Palmer United Party and zip for Katter’s Australian Party (UPDATE: Sorry, make that 3%)), with no result provided as of yet for the Greens (UPDATE: Make that 7%). The poll also produces what I believe may be Campbell Newman’s worst ever result as preferred premier, his lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk narrowing from 48-33 to 42-41. (UPDATE: It also finds Newman’s approval rating steady since May at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Palaszczuk is up six to 39% and down two to 35%).
A separate Galaxy poll of 694 respondents conducted for the Townsville Bulletin zooms in on the seats in the paper’s catchment area, namely the electorates of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa, all of which were lost by Labor in 2012. The poll finds Labor with a collective lead of 53-47 from primary votes of 39% for Labor, 33% for the LNP, 10% for Palmer United, 7% for Katter’s Australian Party and 5% for the Greens. HT: GhostWhoVotes.
Below are poll trend charts for the current parliamentary term, encompassing 17 results from ReachTEL, ten from Essential Research, nine from Galaxy and seven from Newspoll. The current trend results on the primary vote are 37.6% for the Liberal National Party, 34.3% for Labor, 5.8% for the Greens and 13.2% for Palmer United, with the LNP leading 50.9-49.1 on two-party preferred.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.