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Federal Politics 2013-

Aug 25, 2014

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor's post-budget bounce.

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Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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910 comments

910 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

  1. Fran Barlow

    Caf

    [Fran Barlow: The major cost, I imagine, would be lower overall productivity as more time was taken up by transport. This would particularly be the case in regional areas with less population density, where public transport would necessarily run to sparser timetables.]

    My model was confined to urban areas. Outside of them the rules could be far more permissive. I imagine that public transport in urban areas would have been far better in the absence of most private use motor vehicles. Also, some areas of productivity would have improved. Transport would have been far more efficient since mean traffic speeds would have been far higher. Also. I imagine that respiratory illness would have far been lower, and therefore you’d have fewer sick days. Equally, people wouldn’t be travelling from as far away, so public transport times would be very competitive with today’s long commutes.

  2. davidwh

    That may be a problem Zoidlord 🙂

  3. confessions

    davidwh:

    My own view is that there isn’t much we can do in the ME that is going to have meaningful or lasting benefits to the people there.

    And yes, our govt is always going to trumpet its allegiances with allies over and above domestic matters. Hence that earlier tweet I referred to in saying as much.

    Next 2 years is going to be mega boring.

  4. Otiose

    Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Budget2014, #Terror, #abbott & #JoHo, t’CoPilots by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1qKZqjU

  5. ruawake

    [Interesting column by Nikki Savva concerning the Peter McCallum Centre matter.]

    Who is leaking…

    The comments are a hoot.

  6. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Abbott’s internal woes are coming to light now.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-snubbed-his-senators-for-melbourne-fundraiser-20140827-1097w2.html
    Abbott’s blood is in the water and News Ltd is nowhere to be found – New Matilda.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/27/abbotts-blood-water-and-news-limiteds-nowhere-be-found
    Yes, he’s under pressure over his travel claim reasoning.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/27/tony-abbott-under-pressure-over-melbourne-travel-expenses
    No doubt Abbott will study polling results before making a decision to go to war. Again!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terror-hits-home-us-said-to-be-seeking-allies-for-iraq-bombing-raids-20140827-3efh3.html
    Michelle Grattan’s take on Abbott’s rush to war.
    https://theconversation.com/abbott-government-is-readying-to-put-on-the-khaki-30988
    Nick Xenophon piles into Alan Joyce.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/qantas-chief-alan-joyce-has-many-questions-to-answer-20140827-108wov.html
    Now it’s 9 disgraced NSW Libs – and still counting!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/now-the-nsw-liberals-worry-is-not-mathematics-its-geography-20140827-1095l9.html
    How can religious chaplains be “non-judgemental? Abbott is a disgrace on this ideological matter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-to-keep-secular-workers-out-of-school-chaplaincy-program-20140827-1091u0.html
    Mark Latham says Labor needs to see “Bill the Bastard”.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labor_needs_to_see_bill_the_bastard_ME7JT3dRzUGNGYc2C8hY1N
    This will be interesting. Eventually!
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/legislation-to-define-exactly-what-metadata-will-be-stored-for-law-enforcement-and-spies-20140827-1094su.html

  7. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    Kevin Bloody Andrews – Family Man of the Year. What an accolade!
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/27/kevin-andrews-natural-family-man-of-the-year-would-be-a-funny-concept-if-it-wasnt-so-serious
    Pyne’s finest hour is near.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-to-unveil-higher-education-legislation-20140827-1096il.html
    Now this inquiry (if it gets up) will be a beauty!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clean-energy-industry-calls-for-inquiry-into-renewable-energy-target-review-20140827-10974m.html
    Joe Hockey’s not having a great time lately.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockeys-bid-to-hire-author-david-hunt-as-speechwriter-stutters-to-a-halt-20140827-1096yc.html
    Labor’s questioning gets Hockey (at last) to admit to a $7b pensions reduction.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/27/joe-hockey-concedes-7bn-cut-in-pension-budget-under-changes
    “Joe has lost his mojo – here comes Julie Bishop” says Paul Sheehan.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/julie-bishop-gathers-support-as-next-lib-leader-20140827-1090yf.html
    A desperate Malaysia Airlines goes into cut price mode.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/08/27/malaysia-airlines-cheaper-air-asia/
    Nice work from Kathy Jackson.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/hospitals-250000-payment-to-health-union-based-on-grossly-inflated-legal-fees-20140827-1092nn.html
    Peter Wicks says the wheels fell of Kathy’s bus yesterday at the hearing.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/runaway-train-the-jacksonville-train-leaves-the-rails-at-royal-commission/
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/27/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-43/