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Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition in New South Wales

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey provides yet another indication that Mike Baird’s New South Wales state government stands to win comfortably next March despite a heavy swing to Labor.

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll result for New South Wales state voting intention from The Australian is in line with other recent polling in showing a 54-46 lead for Mike Baird’s Coalition government, down from 57-43 in May-June. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote 40%, Labor is up two to 33% and the Greens are steady on 13%. Mike Baird retains strong personal ratings, his approval rating steady on 49% and disapproval up four to 23%, and his lead of 45-21 as preferred premier is little changed on his 47-20 last time. John Robertson’s ratings are also much as they were, at 34% approval (down one) and 32% disapproval (steady).

Below are poll trend charts inclusive of the latest result, the current trend reading giving the Coalition a 54.9-41.5 two-party lead from primary votes of 42.9% for the Coalition, 33.4% for Labor and 11.8% for the Greens. I had more to say about the state of play in New South Wales, in particular concerning how it compares with Victoria, in a paywalled article for Crikey on Friday.

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  • 1
    Socrates
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    The Obeid legacy lingers on. Cutting the Liberal majority to a defeatable size will be a good result for Labor. That being said, Mike Baird is doing well to distance himself from the scandals of his peers. If he keeps doing so, he might stay premier for a long time. Robertson is himself tainted by some of his own past links to compromised Labor people, and the NSW economy is now recovering after years of corrupt mismanagement.

  • 2
    Everything
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Whats wrong with you people? C’mon wake up and start contributing blog posts.

    …..oh…..hang on, perhaps its just a time zone issue. Off to bed now, good night everyone :)

    as you were

  • 3
    mari
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    Zoomster

    Hope you don’t mind but twitlongered a lot of you excellent precis on Amanda Vanstone’s article on twitter, retweets coming in

  • 4
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Lets’ be realistic here. Us NSW Labor-ites do not expect a victory in March 2015. Not after the bloodbath 4 years ago. The best we can hope for is a hefty swing that delivers the ALP a swag of seats and a stronger front bench. There is hope for 2019.

  • 5
    BH
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    kakura You’ve identified the best scenario. Get some good candidates into seats this time to provide strength in 2019.

    Myall Lakes Branches are really pleased with their new candidate, David Keegan to go up against Bromhead.

    I see Keith Williams is standing for preselection in Ballina and I hope he wins it.

  • 6
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    BH, I wish Keith the best of luck in Ballina. He has to do better than the 12% primary vote the ALP eaked out last time.

  • 7
    Raaraa
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know why Nationals still get a 6% vote even after the rural protests against fracking. Admittedly this is half what they got from the last elections.

  • 8
    outside left
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    That’s a fairly hefty difference in 3 months , 16 point difference now down to 8. More narrowing to come in the next 6 months. More ICAC victims and the Opal card will help

  • 9
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    Here comes an ICAC victim now. When it is suggested that you have committed a crime, you deny it or, at least, say I don’t remember but I have never would have done it.

    Ok Joe, let’s see how you go:

    “You leaked the treasury document, didn’t you?” Mr Watson put to Mr Tripodi.

    “I have no recollection of receiving that Treasury document and no recollection of giving it to anyone,” replied the former MP.

    “Right,” said Mr Watson. “Are you denying you leaked the Treasury document?”

    “I have no recollection of receiving it or giving it to anybody,” repeated Mr Tripodi.

    Mr Watson continued to press Mr Tripodi saying, “It will be my submissions that you declined to deny that you leaked the Treasury document.”

    Mr Tripodi once again said he had no recollection.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-live–joe-tripodi-kristina-keneally-on-stand-20140901-3enve.html#ixzz3C2DSx1aQ

  • 10
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Monday, September 1, 2014 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    They dump Robertson for Luke Foley and surely they will have a 3 – 4 percent jump in the polls.

  • 11
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, September 2, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    Agree, K07. Like Steve Whan, Foley is currently in the Upper House. Unlike Steve Whan, he has no plans to shift to the Lower House.

  • 12
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, September 2, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    … by which I mean, Foley has no plans at the moment. There was a report he had his eye on Auburn – but since this came from the Murdoch Press, my instinct is to not give it too much credence.

  • 13
    teh_drewski
    Posted Tuesday, September 2, 2014 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    I find it astonishing that so many Liberal politicians can quit via ICAC and the party is still miles ahead in the polls.

    On the other hand, that TPP figure has shifted pretty significantly. But still.

  • 14
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, September 2, 2014 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    The pendulum still has a long way to swing.

  • 15
    moderate
    Posted Thursday, September 4, 2014 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    9 Liberals have quit to sit on the cross benches. No findings have been made against any of them. Lets not rush to premature adjudication.
    anyway rorting the electoral act to gain at the most $14,000 compared to Obeid, Kelly and McDonald – we aint exactly comparing apples to apples….

  • 16
    outside left
    Posted Thursday, September 4, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    To quote John McEnroe, you can’t be serious! $14K , you joke.2 By elections so far , and possibly more to come. Buildev fan much ?

  • 17
    outside left
    Posted Tuesday, September 9, 2014 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    Well well well, looks like the NSW libs won’t be as flush with funds for the campaign as they planned , with the revelations about the FEF. My letterbox will appreciate the lack of abuse it gets from me, with the huge amount of liberal junk mail we normally get sure to be reduced due to funding ‘problems’

  • 18
    outside left
    Posted Friday, September 12, 2014 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

    Bauman gone, as predicted. 10 !!!

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